2016 Baden-Württemberg state election

Baden-Württemberg state election, 2016

13 March 2016 (2016-03-13)
All 139 seats in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg 70 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Leader Winfried Kretschmann Guido Wolf Jörg Meuthen Party Greens CDU AfD Last election 36 seats, 24.1% 60 seats, 39.0% Did not contest Seats before 36 60 0 Seats won 47 42 23 Seat change 11 18 23 Popular vote 1,622,631 1,447,249 809,311 Percentage 30.3% 27.0% 15.1% Swing 6.1pp 12.0pp 15.1pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Nils Schmid Hans-Ulrich Rülke Bernd Riexinger Party SPD FDP Left Last election 35 seats, 23.1% 7 seats, 5.3% 0 seats, 2.8% Seats before 35 7 0 Seats won 19 12 0 Seat change 16 5 Popular vote 679,872 445,430 156,211 Percentage 12.7% 8.3% 2.9% Swing 10.4pp 3.0pp 0.1pp
Minister-President before election Winfried Kretschmann Greens Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann Greens

The Baden-Württemberg state election 2016 was held on 13 March 2016 to elect members to Baden-Württemberg's State diet, the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg in Stuttgart. It was the 15th state election since the foundation of Baden-Württemberg in 1952. Going into the election, Winfried Kretschmann of Alliance '90/The Greens led a coalition government of his party with the Social Democrats. After the election, Kretschman was confirmed in May 2016 leading a coalition with the CDU, the first time the Greens have led such a coalition in Germany.

Like in all German states, elections in Baden-Württemberg follow the mixed member proportional representation. There are 70 constituency seats and at least 50 additional seats to be filled, making up a total of seats of at least 120. A higher number can be reached through overhang seats and additional seats to restore proportional representation. Unlike all other states, there are no party lists. Instead, the seats for a party which are not filled by constituency winners go to the party's remaining constituency candidates with the highest percentages of votes. The Sainte-Laguë method is used to calculate the seat allocation.

Campaign and issues

The Greens campaigned to keep Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann in office. Their central issues were energy, economics, and education. The CDU aimed to put an end to the green-red state government and usher in its own leading candidate Guido Wolf to head the state government. Themes in focus for the CDU were education policy, internal security, and the issue of infrastructure, including high-speed internet. The SPD, led by Nils Schmid, wanted to win more votes to continue the existing government coalition with The Greens. The SPD's campaign mainly focussed on "good jobs", educational equality, and more time for the family. The electoral goal of the FDP, led by Hans-Ulrich Rülke, was to repeat its entry into the state parliament and possibly be involved in a governing coalition. They promised better education, the strengthening of the local business, and improvement of mobility. The AfD party campaigned to be elected into the state parliament for the first time. Its leading candidate Jörg Meuthen saw migration policy as an important election issue, alongside education, security, and energy transition.

The election campaign was overshadowed by the European migrant crisis. In the crisis, Kretschmann supported the policies of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Kretschmann said he saw no other person who could keep Europe together as Angela Merkel did. "Therefore, I pray every day that the Chancellor remains healthy." CDU candidate Wolf also emphasized support for Merkel's "European solution" in the crisis, but in February 2016 tried to win more conservative voters by a joint proposal along with Rhineland-Palatinate CDU candidate Julia Klöckner for daily refugee quotas and border centers for migrants, which put additional pressure on Merkel.

Polls

The reference for the polls is wahlrecht.de.

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling								Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
		style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Free Democratic Party (Germany)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:The Left (Germany)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Pirate Party Germany/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Alternative for Germany/meta/color;"|
State Election	March 13, 2016	27.0	30.3	12.7	8.3	2.9	0.4	15.1			style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 3.3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	March 10, 2016	29	32	14	6	4		11	±2.4 pp	1,711	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 3
YouGov	March 9, 2016	30	32	12	8	4		11	±3.1 pp	974	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 2
Forsa	March 8, 2016	27	32	16	7	3		11	±3.1 pp	1,002	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 5
INSA	March 5, 2016	28.5	33.5	12.5	6.0	3.0		12.5	±3.1 pp	1,005	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 5.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	March 3, 2016	30	32	13	7	4		11	±3.0 pp	1,058	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 2
Infratest dimap	March 2, 2016	28	32	13	8	4		13	±3.1 pp	1,002	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 4
INSA	February 27, 2016	30.0	30.5	16.5	6.5	3.5		9.0	±3.1 pp	1,030	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.5
Forsa	February 22, 2016	30	30	16	6	3		11	±3.0 pp	1,069	Tie
INSA	February 20, 2016	30.0	30.5	16.0	7.0	3.0		10.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.5
Infratest dimap	February 16, 2016	31	28	14	8	4		12	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 3
Customer Research 42	February 7, 2016	33.1	26.1	15.6	5.1	5.5		10.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 7.0
INSA	February 1, 2016	33.5	28.5	13.5	7.0	3.5		10.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 5.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	January 20, 2016	34	28	15	6	3		11	±3.0 pp	1,069	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 6
INSA	January 18, 2016	35	29	13	6.5	2.5		11.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 6
Infratest dimap	January 12, 2016	35	28	15	6	3		10	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 7
Forsa	December 11, 2015	35	28	19	5	3		7	±3.0 pp	1,064	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 7
Infratest dimap	December 1, 2015	37	25	18	5	4		8	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	November 18, 2015	37	27	18	5	3		6	±3.0 pp	1,040	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 10
INSA	October 6, 2015	40	24	16	5	5		8	±3.1 pp	1,003	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 16
Infratest dimap	September 22, 2015	39	26	17	5	4		5	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 13
Allensbach	August 12, 2015	40.5	24.0	20.0	4.5	4.0		3.0	±3.0 pp	1,047	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 16.5
Forsa	May 7, 2015	38	26	20	4	4		4	±3.1 pp	1,010	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 12
Infratest dimap	March 24, 2015	38	25	18	5	5		4	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 13
Infratest dimap	November 11, 2014	41	22	20	3	4		5	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 19
TNS Infratest	September 17, 2014	41	23	19	4	4		4			style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 18
EP Election	May 25, 2014	39.3	13.2	23.0	4.1	3.6	1.2	7.9			style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 16.3
Infratest dimap	May 11, 2014	41	21	20	3	4		6	±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 20
Infratest dimap	November 5, 2013	43	22	19	4	4		5	±3.1 pp	1,004	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 21
Federal Election	September 22, 2013	45.7	11.0	20.6	6.2	4.8	2.3	5.2			style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 25.1
Infratest dimap	May 15, 2013	39	28	19	4	2	3	2	±3.1 pp	1,005	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 11
Infratest dimap	May 8, 2012	37	28	21	4	2	6		±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 9
Emnid	November 17, 2011	34	32	20	4	3	4		±3.1 pp	1,002	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 2
Infratest dimap	November 16, 2011	37	29	22	3	2	4		±2.0 pp	2,403	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 8
Infratest dimap	August 17, 2011	36	29	23	4	3			±3.1 pp	1,000	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 7
Forsa	April 29, 2011	36	30	22	4	2			±3.1 pp	1,004	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 6
State Election	March 27, 2011	39.0	24.2	23.1	5.3	2.8	2.1				style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union (Germany)/meta/color; color:white;"| 14.8

Results

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #409A3C;" data-sort-value="Alliance '90/The Greens" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #000000;" data-sort-value="Christian Democratic Union (Germany)" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #00A2DE;" data-sort-value="Alternative for Germany" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E3000F;" data-sort-value="Social Democratic Party of Germany" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FFED00;" data-sort-value="Free Democratic Party (Germany)" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #BE3075;" data-sort-value="The Left (Germany)" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #F29200;" data-sort-value="Alliance for Progress and Renewal" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FF6400;" data-sort-value="Ecological Democratic Party" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #8B4726;" data-sort-value="National Democratic Party of Germany" | style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FF820A;" data-sort-value="Pirate Party Germany" |

 Summary of the 13 March 2016 Landtag of Baden-Württemberg elections results
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Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	1,622,631	30.3	6.1	47	11
Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU	1,447,249	27.0	12.0	42	18
Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland – AfD	809,311	15.1	15.1	23	23
Social Democratic Party Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD	679,872	12.7	10.4	19	16
Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP	445,430	8.3	3.0	12	5
Left Party Die Linke	156,211	2.9	0.1	0
Alliance for Progress and Renewal Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch – ALFA	54,764	1.0	1.0	0
Ecological Democratic Party Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP	38,509	0.7	0.2	0
National Democratic Party Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD	23,605	0.4	0.6	0
Pirate Party Piratenpartei	21,773	0.4	0.6	0
	Other parties
Valid votes		5,360,351	99.0	0.4
Invalid votes		51,950	1.0	0.4
Totals and voter turnout		5,412,301	70.4	4.2	143	5
Electorate		7,685,778	100.00	—
Source: Landeswahlleiter

Aftermath

In the prior election of 2011, the Green/SPD coalition obtained a majority (73 of 138) votes in the Landtag, including two opposition votes; however after the 2016 vote, the coalition fell short of a majority, with a combined total of 66 seats (72 needed for a majority). Kretschmann's popularity propelled the Green Party to a gain of 11 seats, making history as the first time the Green party has been the largest party in State-level election results. However, the Greens' coalition partner, the SPD, lost 16 seats, thus depriving the Greens' of a clear majority of leftists.

There were several possible and probable working majorities among the five parties in the Landtag. Expanding the existing coalition into a three-party "traffic light" coalition (green-red-yellow) by including the FDP would have given the administration a working majority of 6. Coalitions with AfD appeared unlikely: a CDU-AfD coalition would be 7 short of a majority in the Landtag, so would have also needed to include the FDP to make a majority and remove Kretschmann as minister-president. Removal of Kretschmann was unlikely; CDU leader Guido Wolf briefly sought to get the Social Democrats into a right-of-centre coalition with the FDP (with Wolf as state minister-president), but his SPD counterpart Nils Schmid pointed out that such a coalition would frustrate voters due to the personal popularity of Kretschmann. If it were possible to elect the minister-president directly, Kretschmann would have won an outright majority according to polls; he was even favored by 45% of CDU supporters.

In May 2016, the Landtag confirmed Kretschmann's leadership in a secret ballot. He won 82 votes leading a "green-black" coalition with a nominal majority of 89 Landestag members (Green 47, CDU 42). A similar "black-green" coalition headed by the CDU has governed in Hesse since the similarly indecisive 2013 elections, but this is the first time the Green Party is the lead coalition partner. Kretschmann formed the Cabinet Kretschmann II as the state government.

External links

• Electoral programs of all parties, Landeszentrale für politische Bildung Baden-Württemberg, in German