2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

Castile-La Mancha parliamentary election, 2015

24 May 2015
All 33 seats in the Courts of Castile-La Mancha 17 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,576,351 0.6%
Turnout	1,127,147 (71.5%) 4.5 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader María Dolores de Cospedal Emiliano García-Page José García Molina Party PP PSOE Podemos Leader since 14 June 2006 26 February 2012 1 April 2015 Last election 25 seats, 48.1% 24 seats, 43.4% Did not contest Seats won 16 15 2 Seat change 9 9 2 Popular vote 413,349 398,104 107,463 Percentage 37.5% 36.1% 9.7% Swing 10.6 pp 7.3 pp New party
President before election María Dolores de Cospedal PP Elected President Emiliano García-Page PSOE

The 2015 Castile-La Mancha parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Courts of Castile-La Mancha, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Castile-La Mancha. At stake were all seats in the Courts, determining the President of the Junta of Communities of Castile-La Mancha. The number of members decreased from 49 to 33 compared to the previous election, as a result of reforms in both the community's electoral law and Statute of Autonomy.

The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

Electoral system

The electoral law of Castile-La Mancha was reformed on 21 July 2014, with the number of seats in the Castile-La Mancha Courts decreasing to 33 from 49. This reform was undergone after another one had been done in 2012. The 2012 reform, approved without consensus from other parties, had increased the Courts' size to 53 from 49 for the 2015 election, something which had already been criticised by the opposition PSOE, as it was deemed that the new seat-distribution between provinces benefitted the PP.

The new reform, approved unilaterally by the PP alongside an extraordinary reforming of the community's Statute of Autonomy (needed to be able to decrease the Courts' size to 33) was severely criticised as it would mean that third parties, such as United Left, Union, Progress and Democracy or ascending Podemos and Citizens would find it extremely difficult to enter the new Courts, while also benefitting the PP in the seat distribution, virtually assuring a PP absolute majority in the region even if the party plummeted in electoral terms.

After the 2014 reform, all Courts members are elected in 5 multi-member districts, corresponding to Castile-La Mancha's five provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of 3 seats, with the remaining 18 seats being allocated among the five provinces in proportion to their populations. For the 2015 election, seats are distributed as follows: Albacete (6), Ciudad Real (8), Cuenca (5), Guadalajara (5) and Toledo (9).

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	C's	P	Oth.	Lead
		style="background:Template:People's Party (Spain)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:United Left (Spain)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Union, Progress and Democracy/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Citizens (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"|
24 May 2015	Regional Election	37.5	36.1	3.1	1.0	8.6	9.7	4.0	1.4
24 May	TNS-Demoscopia	38.4	35.2			7.0	9.9	9.5	3.2
Exit polls
17 May	NC-Report	40.8	35.6	3.1	0.9	9.3	8.9	1.4	5.2
17 May	GAD3	39.4	27.5			14.2	10.6	8.3	11.9
8–12 May	Sigma-2	37.9	32.9	4.3		9.6	10.7	4.6	5.0
27 Apr–8 May	PP	37.5	33.6	4.5		9.8	10.3	4.3	3.9
30 Apr–5 May	Metroscopia	35.1	26.6			17.6	12.6	8.1	8.5
28 Apr–4 May	Noxa	31.6	32.3			17.0	10.0	9.1	0.7
27 Apr–4 May	Sigma-2	37.6	28.8	6.4		11.1	11.4	4.7	8.8
23 Apr–4 May	LVT	39.5	40.1	1.2	0.2	8.5	10.7	0.1	0.6
23–28 Apr	GAD3	40.1	25.5	3.6	0.8	16.9	9.1	4.0	14.6
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	34.9	35.1	3.3	1.4	12.0	9.9	3.4	0.2
11–17 Apr	Noxa	35.1	37.1	3.1	2.9	8.5	11.2	2.2	2.0
7–14 Mar	Noxa	35.4	36.4	2.8	3.6	7.8	11.9	2.1	1.0
2–11 Mar	NC-Report	42.3	33.1	2.8	1.1	9.2	10.0	1.5	9.2
7–21 Jan	GAD3	42.3	32.5				11.6	13.6	9.8
10 Dec–9 Jan	Asturbarómetro	42.9	28.1	2.7	2.8	2.4	16.4	4.7	14.8
2015
12–23 Oct	NC-Report	42.6	35.5	3.2	3.4		12.4	2.9	7.1
25 May 2014	EP Election	37.7	28.8	8.7	7.2	2.2	6.4	9.0	8.9
26 Mar–10 Apr	GAD3	44.8	38.7	8.2				8.3	6.1
2014
18–28 Nov	NC-Report	41.3	38.9	7.5	5.6			6.7	2.4
2–15 May	NC-Report	41.9	39.7	7.2	5.5			5.7	2.2
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report	41.8	40.2					18.0	1.6
1–22 Apr	GAD3	43.5	40.1	8.9	3.3			4.2	3.4
2013
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	55.8	30.3	5.8	5.0			3.1	25.5
22 May 2011	Regional Election	48.1	43.4	3.8	1.8			2.9	4.7

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Courts of Castile-La Mancha.

17 seats needed for majority (21/07/2014–)

27 seats needed for majority (13/08/2012–21/07/2014)

25 seats needed for majority (22/05/2011–13/08/2012)

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	C's	P	Others
		style="background:Template:People's Party (Spain)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:United Left (Spain)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Union, Progress and Democracy/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Citizens (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"|
24 May 2015	Regional Election	16	15	0	0	0	2	0
24 May	TNS-Demoscopia	15−17	13−15	0	0	0−1	1−2	0
24 May	GAD3	15−16	13−14	0	0	0−3	2−3	0
Exit polls
17 May	NC-Report	16−17	12−13	0	0	1−2	1−2	0
17 May	GAD3	16−17	10−11	0	0	3−4	2−3	0
8–12 May	Sigma-2	15−17	11−13	0	0	2−3	3	0
27 Apr–8 May	PP	17	12	0	0	2	2	0
30 Apr–5 May	Metroscopia	14	10	0	0	5	4	0
28 Apr–4 May	Noxa	12	14	0	0	5	2	0
27 Apr–4 May	Sigma-2	15−16	11	0	0	2−4	3−4	0
23 Apr–4 May	LVT	13	14	0	0	3	3	0
23–28 Apr	GAD3	17−18	9−10	0	0	3−5	2−3	0
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	14−15	13	0	0	3−4	2	0
11–17 Apr	Noxa	14	14	0	0	1	4	0
7–14 Mar	Noxa	14	14	0	0	1	4	0
2–11 Mar	NC-Report	17−18	10−11	0	0	2−3	2−3	0
25 Feb	PSOE	14−15	14−16	0	0	0	3−5	0
20 Feb	PP	17	11−14	1−2	0	0	4−5	0
28 Jan	PP	18	10	0	0	0	5	0
7–21 Jan	GAD3	18	11	0	0	0	4	0
10 Dec–9 Jan	Asturbarómetro	17	10	0	0	0	6	0
2015
31 Oct	Llorente & Cuenca	13−15	14−16	0	0	0	2−4	0
12–23 Oct	NC-Report	17	13	0	0	0	3	0
25 May 2014	EP Election	(24)	(18)	(4)	(4)	(0)	(3)	(0)
26 Mar–10 Apr	GAD3	28	23	2	0	0	0	0
2014
18–28 Nov	NC-Report	27	23	3	0			0
15 Oct–12 Nov	NC-Report	27	23−24	1−2	0−1			0
2–15 May	NC-Report	27	23	3	0			0
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report	27	23−24	2−3	0			0
1–22 Apr	GAD3	28	22	3	0			0
2013
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	(32)	(17)	(0)	(0)			(0)
22 May 2011	Regional Election	25	24	0	0			0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Castile-La Mancha Courts election results

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
width="1" bgcolor="Template:People's Party (Spain)/meta/color" |	People's Party (PP)	413,349	37.49	10.62	16	9
bgcolor="Template:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color" |	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	398,104	36.11	7.29	15	9
bgcolor="Template:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color" |	We Can (Podemos)	107,463	9.75	New	2	2
bgcolor="Template:Citizens (Spanish political party)/meta/color" |	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	95,230	8.64	New	0	±0
bgcolor="Template:United Left (Spain)/meta/color" |	Let's Win Castile-La Mancha-The Greens-United Left (Ganemos-LV-IU)	34,230	3.10	0.67	0	±0
bgcolor="Template:Union, Progress and Democracy/meta/color" |	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	10,866	0.99	0.76	0	±0
bgcolor="Template:Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals/meta/color" |	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	8,943	0.81	0.46	0	±0
bgcolor="Template:Vox (Spanish political party)/meta/color" |	Vox (VOX)	5,302	0.48	New	0	±0
	Independent Citizens' Union (UCIN)	5,061	0.46	0.34	0	±0
	The Greens-Green Group (LV-GV)	1,918	0.17	0.03	0	±0
	Castilian Party-Castilian Unity (PCAS-UdCa)	1,532	0.14	0.08	0	±0
bgcolor="Template:Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain/meta/color" |	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	987	0.09	New	0	±0
	Independents and Liberals for Manzanares (LIM)	287	0.03	New	0	±0
	Blank ballots	19,256	1.75	0.08
Total		1,102,528	100.00		33	16
Valid votes		1,102,528	97.82	0.87
Invalid votes		24,619	2.18	0.87
Votes cast / turnout		1,127,147	71.50	4.46
Abstentions		449,204	28.50	4.46
Registered voters		1,576,351
Source: Argos Information Portal

Vote share PP   37.49% PSOE   36.11% Podemos   9.75% C's   8.64% Ganemos-LV-IU   3.10% Others   3.17% Blank ballots   1.75%

Parliamentary seats PP   48.48% PSOE   45.45% Podemos   6.06%