Next United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
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The next United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025, with all 18 Northern Irish seats in the House of Commons to be contested. The general election will occur after the recently completed constituency boundaries review.
Background[edit]
Electoral system[edit]
MPs will be elected in 18 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post.
Date of the election[edit]
The next UK general election must occur by January 2025 according to the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act means that the UK House of Commons is dissolved on 17 December 2024, if not already dissolved by the UK Prime Minister. The general election must occur up to 25 working days after dissolution of Parliament (but allows bank holidays).[1]
Constituency boundaries[edit]
In June 2023, it was published that The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland had made final recommendations for the new boundaries for Northern Ireland's 18 parliamentary constituencies. The report was submitted to the speaker of the UK House of Commons and the UK Government was required to submit a draft of an Order in Council to activate the new boundaries within four months.[2]
Changes include:
- 'Belfast South' became 'Belfast South and Mid Down' and expanded to include parts of Lagan Valley and Strangford.
- East Antrim, which includes parts of North Antrim.
- The Foyle constituency was reduced in size, with areas incorporated into the constituencies of West Tyrone and East Londonderry.[2]
- Strangford has expanded to include large swathes of the eastern side of South Down.
Ten wards were moved and as approved by MPs, the new boundaries became effective on 1 November 2023.[3] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November[4] and came into force on 29 November.[5]
Campaign[edit]
In the run up to the election, there has been speculation to the extent at which unionist electoral pacts will be active in some constituencies.[6] In July 2023, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Doug Beattie clarified that his party intends to stand candidates in 17 constituencies, but there is still speculation about whether the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) will field candidates.[7] The TUV leader Jim Allister has said that in seats held by non-unionists where the sitting MP could potentially be ousted, it will support an “agreed single unionist candidate".[8]
In North Down, there have been calls for unionist parties to drop their own candidates and unite behind a single contender to defeat incumbent Alliance MP Stephen Farry.[9] Farry was confirmed as Alliance's candidate for North Down at the next election on 26 November 2023.[10] On 24 January 2024, the UUP selected former Iraq War veteran Tim Collins as their candidate for North Down, with the UUP leader Doug Beattie saying his party "does not do pacts".[11] Alex Easton is set to announce his Independent Unionist candidacy for the seat.[12]
The Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, in October 2023, revealed that they intend to target the then-leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Jeffrey Donaldson's seat of Lagan Valley. They unveiled their candidate as Sorcha Eastwood and will require a 7.16% swing to gain the seat from the DUP.[13]
Within nationalism, due to their strong performance in the 2022 Assembly election and the 2023 local elections, Sinn Féin look "likely to increase its number of seats at Westminster", with the possibility of gaining Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood's seat of Foyle.[14]
The campaign has got underway in South Belfast and North Down, with both incumbent MPs, Claire Hanna and Stephen Farry seeking re-election. North Down Ulster Unionist candidate Tim Collins has said he is "very confident" of unseating Farry.[15]
On 26 January 2024, the Ulster Unionist Party selected their former leader and Minister of Health Robin Swann as their candidate for South Antrim.[16]
On 27 January 2024, the Ulster Unionist Party announced their deputy leader, Robbie Butler, as the party's candidate for Lagan Valley.[17]
On 16 March 2024, the Traditional Unionist Voice formed an electoral pact with Reform UK, in which the two parties would stand mutually agreed candidates within Northern Ireland.[18]
The leader of the Green Party Northern Ireland, Seanadóir Mal O'Hara, told Slugger O'Toole on 26 April 2024 that they will stand in every constituency and will not pursue any electoral pacts.[19]
Opinion polling[edit]
| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s)
conducted |
Sample
size |
DUP | SF | Alliance | UUP | SDLP | Reform UK–TUV alliance | Green | NI Con | Other | Undecided | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reform | TUV | |||||||||||||
| SMR Belfast/University of Liverpool/Irish News[20] | 11–28 February 2024 | 1,206 | 23.5% | 31.1% | 15.2% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7.6% | ||
| The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[21] | 26 October – 3 November 2023 | 1,074 | 25% | 31% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 14% | 6% | |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | – | 30.6% | 22.8% | 16.8% | 11.7% | 14.9% | N/A | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.1% | N/A | 7.8% | |
Leadership approval ratings[edit]
Michelle O'Neill
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, the First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 43% | 37% | 20% | +6% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 41% | 37% | 22% | +4% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 41% | 40% | 19% | +4% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 40% | 42% | 18% | –2% |
Jeffrey Donaldson
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from 30 June 2021 to 29 March 2024.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 24% | 66% | 10% | –42% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 65% | 8% | –38% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 25% | 63% | 12% | –38% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 29% | 65% | 6% | –36% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 27% | 64% | 9% | –37% |
Naomi Long
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, the leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 38% | 39% | 23% | –1% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 40% | 38% | 22% | +2% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 37% | 38% | 25% | –1% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 45% | 37% | 18% | +8% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
Doug Beattie
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 34% | 38% | 28% | –4% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 38% | 33% | 29% | +5% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 28% | 42% | 30% | –14% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 37% | 32% | 31% | +5% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 34% | 32% | 0% |
Colum Eastwood
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 26% | 43% | 31% | –17% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 32% | 40% | 28% | –8% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 33% | 38% | 29% | –5% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 31% | 39% | 30% | –8% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 39% | 27% | –5% |
Jim Allister
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, the leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 23% | 63% | 14% | –40% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 61% | 12% | –34% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 27% | 57% | 16% | –30% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 27% | 59% | 14% | –32% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 31% | 54% | 15% | –23% |
MPs not seeking re-election[edit]
| MP | Seat | First elected | Party | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francie Molloy | Mid Ulster | 2013 | Sinn Féin | 13 February 2024[22] | |
| Mickey Brady | Newry and Armagh | 2015 | Sinn Féin | 19 February 2024[23] | |
See also[edit]
- Elections in Northern Ireland
- Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
- Next United Kingdom general election
- Next United Kingdom general election in Scotland
- Next United Kingdom general election in Wales
References[edit]
- ^ "When Is The Next UK General Election?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 4 November 2023.
- ^ a b Hughes, Brendan (28 June 2023). "Belfast constituency to be renamed under election boundary changes". Belfast Live. Retrieved 5 November 2023.
- ^ "Boundaries of five Northern Ireland constituencies to change". BBC News. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 5 November 2023.
- ^ "List of Business - 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
- ^ Michael Palmer (24 November 2023). "Unionist Pacts: Deal or No Deal?". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
- ^ David McCann (24 November 2023). "Slugger TV talks with Doug Beatte". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
- ^ "TUV says unionists must have anti-protocol candidates to vote for in next Westminster election". The Irish News. 12 January 2024. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
- ^ "North Down Orangemen call for rival unionist parties to drop their own candidates and agree on a single contender in a bid to oust Stephen Farry as MP". Newsletter. 6 October 2023. Retrieved 11 April 2024.
- ^ "Alliance select Stephen Farry to stand for re-election in North Down | Northern Ireland Elects". nielects.com. 26 November 2023. Retrieved 27 November 2023.
- ^ "UUP: Iraq veteran Col Tim Collins to run in North Down". BBC News. 24 January 2024. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
- ^ newspapers, spectator (25 April 2024). "Easton to Stand". County Down Spectator. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
- ^ "Alliance: We can take Jeffrey Donaldson's Lagan Valley seat". Belfast Telegraph. 21 October 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
- ^ "Sinn Fein 'on course to hit new general election high': new poll". Belfast Telegraph. 13 November 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
- ^ "Iraq War veteran standing for UUP as he sets sights on Stephen Farry's Westminster seat". Belfast Telegraph. 24 January 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
- ^ "Robin Swann lined up for South Antrim election bid". 26 January 2024. Retrieved 26 January 2024.
- ^ "NI relations with Westminster have never been worse, claims UUP deputy as he confirms election bid". Belfast Telegraph. 27 January 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 27 January 2024.
- ^ "TUV conference: Jim Allister announces partnership with Reform UK". BBC News. 16 March 2024. Retrieved 16 March 2024.
- ^ NVTV, Northern Visions (25 April 2024). Slugger TV - 26th April 2024. Retrieved 26 April 2024 – via Vimeo.
- ^ "Sinn Féin on course for record performance in Westminster election". The Irish News. 11 March 2024. Retrieved 11 March 2024.
- ^ "Restoring the Assembly?" (PDF).
- ^ "Sinn Féin MP Francie Molloy not seeking re-election". BBC News. 13 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
- ^ "Sinn Féin MP Mickey Brady not seeking re-election". BBC News. 19 February 2024. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
Footnotes[edit]
- ^ Long serves as an MLA for Belfast East. She previously represented the area at Westminster from 2010-2015.
- ^ "Party leader in the North" and vice president of Sinn Féin. Mary Lou McDonald is the party president and leader of the opposition in the Dáil of the Republic of Ireland.
- ^ As "Party leader in the North"
- ^ O'Neill is an MLA for Mid Ulster.
- ^ Allister is an MLA for North Antrim.
- ^ Beattie is an MLA for Upper Bann.