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Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Charles Essie (talk | contribs) at 17:51, 14 October 2016 (→References). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that have consistently polled on average above the 5.0% threshold. The second graph shows the parties polling over 1% which do not consistently poll above the 5.0% threshold.

Summary of poll results given below up to and including 11 November 2011. For simplicity, only political parties that have consistently polled above the 5.0% threshold are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. The vertical line indicates the date of the general election: 26 November 2011.
Summary poll results for political parties trending between 1.0% and the 5.0% threshold, based on the same smoother as the above figure.

Individual polls

Poll Date bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color|Progressive bgcolor=Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color|United Future bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First bgcolor=Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color|Mana bgcolor=Template:Conservative Party of New Zealand/meta/color|Conservative
2008 election result 8 November 2008 44.93 33.99 6.72 3.65 2.39 0.91 0.87 4.07 n/a n/a
11 November 2008 – Phil Goff replaces Helen Clark as leader of Labour Party.
19 November 2008 – National Party leader John Key is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand, having formed a minority government with the confidence and supply of the ACT, Maori and United Future parties.
Roy Morgan Research[1] 17–30 November 2008 44.0 32.5 9.5 4.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 3.5
Roy Morgan Research[2] 1–14 December 2008 47.0 31.5 9.5 4.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 3.0
Roy Morgan Research[3] 2–18 January 2009 48.0 33.0 8.0 3.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[4] 19 January – 1 February 2009 48.0 31.0 9.0 3.5 3.5 0.5 1.0 3.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 February 2009 48.5 32 8.5 2.5 3.5 0.5 1 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 14–19 February 2009 57.0 31.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 1.0
3 News Reid Research[7] 18 February 2009 60.0 27.0 7.0 1.2 2.1 0.2 1.6
Roy Morgan Research[5] 16 February – 1 March 2009 56 26 8.5 1.5 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 March 2009 54.5 29 8 2.5 2 0.5 0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 28 March – 1 April 2009 56.0 28.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 23 March – 5 April 2009 50.5 28 9.5 4 3.5 1 <0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[8] 5 April 2009 57.0 31.0 7.0 2.0 2.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 6–19 April 2009 50 32.5 8.5 2.5 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 20 April – 3 May 2009 55 30.5 7 2 2 <0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[9] 4–17 May 2009 52.0 31.5 9.5 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[9] 18–31 May 2009 52.0 31.0 8.5 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 1.

28 May 2009  – 2009 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
30 May 2009 – Metiria Turei replaces Jeanette Fitzsimons as female co-leader of the Green Party.
13 June 2009 – Mount Albert by-election: David Shearer retains the seat for Labour.

Roy Morgan Research[9] 1–14 June 2009 52.0 33.0 7.5 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 22 June – 5 July 2009 54 31.5 8 1 3 0.5 0.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 6–19 July 2009 52 30 10 1 3.5 0.5 <0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 25–29 July 2009 56 31 7 1 3.1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 20 July – 2 August 2009 53.5 34 7 2.5 1.5 0.5 <0.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 3–16 August 2009 53.5 32.5 8.5 1 2 0.5 <0.5 2
21 August 2009 – The citizens-initiated corporal punishment referendum is held, with voters responding 87.4% "No" to the question "Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?"
Roy Morgan Research[5] 17–30 August 2009 56.5 29.5 8 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[10] 31 August – 13 September 2009 51.5 33 7.5 2 2.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 19–24 September 2009 54 33 4 3 3 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 21 September – 4 October 2009 57.5 28 6.5 1.5 2.5 1 <0.5 2
3 News Reid Research[12] 18 October 2009 59.9 27.2 6.9 1.7 2.4 1.0
Roy Morgan Research[5] 5–18 October 2009 53 30 7.5 2.5 3 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 19 October – 1 November 2009 55.5 29 7.5 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 2–15 November 2009 51.5 33 6.5 2.5 2 1 <0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[13][14] 21–25 November 2009 53 31 7 2 3 1
Roy Morgan Research[5] 16–29 November 2009 53.5 30.5 7 1.5 3.5 <0.5 <0.5 2.5
26 November 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News Reid Research[15] 13 December 2009 55.2 30.8 7.8 1.8 1.7 0.1 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 30 November – 13 December 2009 54 27.5 9.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 <0.5 4
Roy Morgan Research[5] 4–17 January 2010 53 30 8 2 2.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 18–31 January 2010 52 32 6 2 3 0.5 0.5 3.5
Herald-DigiPoll[16] 29 January – 10 February 2010 56 34 4.6 <1 2.8 <1 <1 1.7
Roy Morgan Research[5] 1–14 February 2010 52 33 8 1.5 2.5 0.5 <0.5 2
3 News Reid Research[17] 16 February 2010 56.3 29.6 7.3 1.6 2.4 0.2 0.2 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[18] 14–17 February 2010 54 34 5 2 2 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 15–28 February 2010 53.5 31.5 8 1.5 2.5 <0.5 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[5] 1–14 March 2010 51.5 33.5 6.5 2.5 2 1 0.5 2
Roy Morgan Research[19][20] 22 March – 4 April 2010 49 33 7.5 2 3 0.5 1 3
One News Colmar Brunton[21] 10–14 April 2010 54 33 5 2 2
3 News Reid Research[22] 25 April 2010 52.1 33.8 8.2 1.6 1.9 0.5 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[5] 5–18 April 2010 49.5 34 7.5 1 4 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[23] 3–16 May 2010 48.5 33.5 9 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 3
20 May 2010  – 2010 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research[23] 17–30 May 2010 52.5 30 9.5 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[24][25] 30 May 2010 49.0 33.0 7.0 1.6 3.6
Roy Morgan Research[23] 31 May – 13 June 2010 50.5 33 9.5 1 3 <0.5 1 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[23] 21 June – 4 July 2010 53 29 8.5 2 3 <0.5 0.5 3
Roy Morgan Research[26] 5–18 July 2010 49 31.5 9 2 3 0.5 0.5 4.5
Roy Morgan Research[26] 19 July – 1 August 2010 51 33.5 6.5 2 3.5 0.5 0.5 2
One News Colmar Brunton[27][28] 8 August 2010 49.0 35.0 7.0 2.7 2.3 2.3
3 News Reid Research[28][29] 8 August 2010 54.5 30.6 8.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 1.5
Roy Morgan Research[30] 2–15 August 2010 50 33.5 7.5 1.5 3 0.5 3.5
17 August 2010 – Chris Carter is removed from the Labour caucus and becomes an independent MP. Labour is reduced to 42 seats but the Opposition remains at 53 seats.
Roy Morgan Research[30] 16–29 August 2010 49.5 32.5 8.5 1 3 1 3.5
4 September 2010 – A 7.1-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury.
Roy Morgan Research[30] 30 August – 12 September 2010 48.5 34 8 2 1.5 0.5 1 4.5
Roy Morgan Research[30] 20 September – 3 October 2010 49.5 36.5 8 0.5 2.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[31] 26 September 2010 54 32 8 1.1 2.3 2.4
Roy Morgan Research[32] 4–17 October 2010 52.5 33 8.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 2.5
3 News Reid Research[33] 11 October 2010 53.8 32.6 7.6 0.9 2.4 0.3 1.2
Roy Morgan Research[34] 18–31 October 2010 50.5 33 8.5 1.5 3 0.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[34] 1–14 November 2010 50 32.5 9 1 2.5 0.5 3
20 November 2010 – Mana by-election: Kris Faafoi retains the seat for Labour, but with a significantly reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research[34] 15–28 November 2010 51 33 7 1 3 0.5 0.5 3
Roy Morgan Research[34] 29 November – 12 December 2010 48.5 35 7 1.5 2.5 0.5 1 3
3 News Reid Research[35] 13 December 2010 55.5 31.2 7.3 1.3 1.7 0.1 1.9
One News Colmar Brunton[36] 19 December 2010 55 33 4.5 0.9 2.2 3.1
Herald-DigiPoll[37] 30 December 2010 52.4 37.2 5.3 0.9 1.2 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[38] 4–16 January 2011 55 29 7 1.5 2.5 0.5 4.5
26 January 2011 – John Key announces policy of partial privatisation of some state-owned assets.
Roy Morgan Research[39] 17–30 January 2011 49 34.5 6.5 1 3 5.5
2 February 2011 – John Key announces the election will be held on 26 November 2011.
Roy Morgan Research[39] 31 January – 13 February 2011 52.5 33.5 8.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 2.5
One News Colmar Brunton[40] 20 February 2011 51 33 8 1.3 2.3 3.6
3 News Reid Research[41] 20 February 2011 54.6 30.9 8.2 0.6 2.3 3.3
Roy Morgan Research[42] 14–27 February 2011 49 35 8 1.5 3 3
22 February 2011 – A 6.3-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury, with 181 casualties.
23 February 2011 – Hone Harawira defects from Maori Party to become an independent MP, and later forming the Mana Party. Government majority reduced from 16 to 14 seats; Maori Party reduced to four seats.
5 March 2011 – Botany by-election: Jami-Lee Ross retains the seat for National, but with a reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research[42] 28 February – 13 March 2011 52.5 32.5 8 0.5 1.5 0.5 4
Roy Morgan Research[42] 21 March – 3 April 2011 51 31.5 8 2 1.5 0.5 5
One News Colmar Brunton[43] 10 April 2011 54 34 6 1.1 1.4 2.7
3 News Reid Research[44] 17 April 2011 57.5 27.1 7.7 1.7 2.5 0.2 2.8
Roy Morgan Research[45] 4–17 April 2011 51 32 8 1 3.5 0.5 0.5 3
30 April 2009 – Don Brash replaces Rodney Hide as leader of the ACT Party.
Roy Morgan Research[45] 18 April – 1 May 2011 52.5 31 7.5 1 2 0.5 0.5 4.5
Roy Morgan Research[45] 2–15 May 2011 53 28 10 2 2 0.5 0.5 3
19 May 2011  – 2011 New Zealand budget is presented to Parliament.
Herald-DigiPoll[46] 19–25 May 2011 54.4 33.7 5.5 1.7 1.5 0 0 2.7
One News Colmar Brunton[47] 29 May 2011 52 34 6 2.5 1.4 1.6 0.9
3 News Reid Research[48] 29 May 2011 53.0 32.8 6.5 2.2 1.6 0.2 2.4 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[49] 16–29 May 2011 49 36 6.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[50] 30 May – 12 June 2011 53 30 7 3 3 0.5 2.5
Roy Morgan Research[50] 13–26 June 2011 54 30.5 5.5 2.5 3 0.5 3.5
25 June 2011 – Te Tai Tokerau by-election: Hone Harawira is re-elected under the Mana Party.
Herald-DigiPoll[51] 27 June 2011 51.2 36.1 6.6 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[52] 27 June – 10 July 2011 49 33.5 7.5 3 2.5 0.5 3
3 News Reid Research[53] 10 July 2011 55.1 29.9 9.1 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.2 0.7
14 July 2011 – Labour releases their proposed tax package, including the introduction of a capital gains tax.[54]
One News Colmar Brunton[55] 17 July 2011 53 27 10 3.1 3 0.3 2.4 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[56] 11–24 July 2011 52 31.5 7.5 2 3 0.5 2.5 0.5
Fairfax Media–Research International [57][58] 21–25 July 2011 56 29 6.4 2.2 1.2 0.2 2.0 0.2
Herald-DigiPoll[59] 30 July 2011 52.3 33.1 8.3 1.4 2.0 0.9 0.6
Roy Morgan Research [60] 25 July – 7 August 2011 51.5 32 7 2 1.5 0.5 4 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[61] 21 August 2011 56 30 6 1.7 1.4 0.5 2.3 0.9
3 News Reid Research[62] 21 August 2011 54.0 28.8 9.3 2.2 1.5 0.0 2.2 0.9
Herald-DigiPoll[63] 19–26 August 2011 52 31.5 9.8 1.2 1.8 0.1 2.4 0.2
Roy Morgan Research [64] 15 – 28 August 2011 52 29.5 9 2 1.5 0.5 3.5 1
Fairfax Media–Research International[58] 25–29 August 2011 57.1 25.7 11.0 1.1 1.6 0.1 2.2 0.6
Roy Morgan Research [65] 29 August – 11 September 2011 57 26 7.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 3.5 1
9 September 2011 – The 2011 Rugby World Cup opens in Auckland, with unexpected overcrowding of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone and transport delays resulting in some people missing the opening ceremony and game.[66]
13 September 2011 – The Government takes control of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone from Auckland Council.[66]
Roy Morgan Research [67] 12 – 25 September 2011 51 30.5 11.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 1 0.5
30 September 2011 – Credit agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's both downgrade New Zealand's long-term credit rating from AA+ to AA.[68]
Fairfax Media–Research International[69] 28 September 2011 54 28 10 1.5 1.3 0.4 2.3 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton[70] 2 October 2011 56 29 9 1.3 1.1 0.0 1.9 0.6
3 News Reid Research[71] 2 October 2011 57.4 26.6 9.8 1.6 0.8 0.0 1.9 0.
Roy Morgan Research [72] 26 September – 9 October 2011 55.5 28 9.5 1.5 2 0.5 2 0.5
5 October 2011 – MV Rena runs aground on the Astrolabe Reef causing an oil spill in Tauranga, described as New Zealand's worst environmental disaster.
Roy Morgan Research [73] 10–23 October 2011 53.5 29.5 9.5 1 2 1 2.5 0.5
26 October 2011 – Writ Day: The writ of election is issued by the Chief Justice on behalf of the Governor General, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the election.[74] Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.01 million eligible voters.[note a][75] Main campaigning season begins.
Herald-DigiPoll [76] 20–27 October 2011 53.5 30.3 9.5 1.5 1.2 0.1 2.8 0.1
3 News Reid Research[77] 30 October 2011 52.3 30.2 9.4 1.5 1.4 0.0 2.4 0.9
Fairfax Media–Research International[78] 27–31 October 2011 52.6 31.3 9.7 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 1.5 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll [79] 28 October – 2 November 2011 54.2 29.1 10.1 0.9 1.9 0.5 1.7 0.1 1.1
One News Colmar Brunton[80] 3 November 2011 56 30 9 0.9 1.3 0.1 2.2 0.3
Roy Morgan Research [81] 24 October – 6 November 2011 53 26 12 1 2 0 4.5 1.0
Fairfax Media–Research International[82] 3–7 November 2011 52.5 25.9 12.6 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.3 2.8 0.7
Herald-DigiPoll [83] 3–9 November 2011 49.5 28.7 12.6 1.5 0.5 0.7 3.7 0.7 1
One News Colmar Brunton[84] 10 November 2011 54 28 9 1.5 2.1 0.8 2.9 0.2 0.5
3 News Reid Research[85] 13 November 2011 53.3 29.9 10.2 0.7 1.4 0.0 2.4 1.0
11 November 2011 – A potentially damaging conversation between John Key and political ally John Banks is recorded without their knowledge.
Herald-DigiPoll [86] 10–16 November 2011 49.9 29.1 12.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.9 0.4 0.6
One News Colmar Brunton[87] 17 November 2011 51 26 13 1.6 1.6 0.3 2.2 1.3 1.4
3 News Reid Research[88] 17 November 2011 50.2 27.4 13.0 1.8 1.3 0.0 3.5 1.0 1.1
Roy Morgan Research [89] 7 – 18 November 2011 53 24.5 13 1.5 3 0 3 1.0
Fairfax Media–Research International[90] 17 – 21 November 2011 54.0 26.0 12.0 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.1 4.0 1.1
Herald-DigiPoll [91] 17 – 23 November 2011 50.9 28.0 11.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.2 0.3 1.3
One News Colmar Brunton[92] 24 November 2011 50 28 10 1.7 2.0 0.1 4.2 1.0 2.4
3 News Reid Research[93] 24 November 2011 50.8 26.0 13.4 1.0 1.5 0.0 3.1 1.1 1.8
Roy Morgan Research [94][note b] 22 – 24 November 2011 49.5 23.5 14.5 1.5 1 0.5 6.5 0.5
26 November 2011 – Election Day: A total of 3,049,212 voters were registered to vote in the election.[95] A total of 2,257,336 votes were cast, including the 188,730 advance votes, with a turnout of 73.5%.[96][97]
2011 election result[97] 26 November 2011 47.31 27.48 11.06 1.07 1.43 –[note c] 0.60 6.59 1.08 2.65
Poll Date bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color|Progressive bgcolor=Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color|United Future bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First bgcolor=Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color|Mana bgcolor=Template:Conservative Party of New Zealand/meta/color|Conservative
  • ^[note a] Voters enrolling after this date could still vote in the general election, but were not included on the printed roll and had to cast special declaration votes.
  • ^[note b] The two graphs near the top of the page include data up to and including this poll.
  • ^[note c] The Progressive Party did not contest the 2011 election.

Preferred Prime Minister

Individual polls

Poll Date bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|John Key bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Helen Clark bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Phil Goff bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|Winston Peters
Colmar Brunton[6] 14–19 February 2009 51 6 2
Colmar Brunton[6] 28 March – 1 April 2009 51 6 1
TV ONE Colmar Brunton[8] 5 April 2009 51 9 6
Colmar Brunton[6] 25–29 July 2009 51 7 2
3 News-Reid Research[12] 18 October 2009 51.6 8.2 4.7 3.0
ONE News Colmar Brunton[13][14] 21–25 November 2009 54 5 2
26 November 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News-Reid Research[15] 13 December 2009 49.9 6.1 8.0 2.1
Herald Digipoll[16] 29 January – 10 February 2010 58 7 6.8
ONE News Colmar Brunton[21] 10–14 April 2010 48 8
ONE News Colmar Brunton[24] May 2010 46 6
ONE News Colmar Brunton[27][28] 8 August 2010 45 9
3 News-Reid Research[28][29][98] 8 August 2010 48.7 2.3 7.4 3.7
ONE News Colmar Brunton[31] 26 September 2010 52 8
One News-Colmar Brunton[36] 19 December 2010 49.1 6.8 4.9
3 News-Reid Research[41] 20 February 2011 49.1 6.8 4.9
ONE News Colmar Brunton[40] 20 February 2011 48 2 7 3
One News-Colmar Brunton[43] 10 April 2011 55 11 3
3 News-Reid Research[44] 17 April 2011 52.4 6.8
Herald Digipoll[46] 27 May 2011 67.7 11.9
One News-Colmar Brunton[47] 29 May 2011 53 8
3 News-Reid Research[48] 29 May 2011 48.2 7.6
One News-Colmar Brunton[55] 17 July 2011 54 9
Herald Digipoll[59] 30 July 2011 70.3 7.9 9.3 2.9
One News-Colmar Brunton[61] 21 August 2011 57 8
Herald Digipoll[76] 29 October 2011 70.6 13.7 3.5
One News-Colmar Brunton[80] 3 November 2011 56 12
Fairfax Media-Research International[90] 17–21 November 2011 51.5 12.5 3.5
Poll Date bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|John Key bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Helen Clark bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Phil Goff bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|Winston Peters

Other polls

Epsom electorate vote

Poll Date bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|John Banks bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|Paul Goldsmith bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|David Parker bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|David Hay
2008 election result 8 November 2008 56.1[a] 21.8[a] 13.6[a] 7.4[a]
New Zealand Herald-Key Research[99] 9 October 2011 18.9 32.9 4.3 1
Fairfax Media Research International[100] 17 November 2011 29.1 45.5 14.6 7.7
One News Colmar Brunton[101] 14–17 November 2011 30 41 17 11
2011 general election, final result 26 November 2011 44.10 37.80 10.45 6.01

^[a] The candidates in the 2008 general election were Rodney Hide, Richard Worth, Kate Sutton, and Keith Locke respectively.

Voting method referendum

Main article: New Zealand voting method referendum, 2011 § Opinion polls and surveys

Concern over validity

A new polling company, Horizon, has challenged some of the existing polls' validity as they exclude undecided voters and those who chose not to vote.[102] Horizon claim that this may be up to 30% in some polls.[102] However, Horizon's own polling methods have been criticised for their use of a self-selected internet panel.[103] At the 2008 election only the Green Party gained a proportion of the party vote outside (below) what poll trends would suggest.

See also

References

  1. ^ "John Key elected as new Prime Minister and record number of New Zealanders say New Zealand is 'Heading in the right direction'". Roy Morgan Research. 30 November 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  2. ^ "'Honeymoon' period continues for new New Zealand Prime Minister John Key; National Party (47%) well ahead of Labour (31.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 14 December 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  3. ^ "John Key's New Zealand Government retains strong lead; National Party (48%) well ahead of Labour (33%)". Roy Morgan Research. 23 January 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  4. ^ "NZ National Party-led Government (56%) well ahead of Opposition Parties (44%)". Roy Morgan Research. 5 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w "National-led Government (55%, unchanged) Retain big lead over Opposition Parties (45%, unchanged)". Roy Morgan Research. 27 April 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  6. ^ a b c d e f TVNZ Teletext, p.497 Retrieved 3 August 2009.
  7. ^ "National's honeymoon continues, according to poll" (video). TV3. 18 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  8. ^ a b "National still on honeymoon". The Dominion Post. 6 April 2009. Archived from the original on 14 June 2010. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  9. ^ a b c Roy Morgan Research (24 June 2009). "National Still Surpasses 50% in New Zealand". Angus Reid Public Opinion. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  10. ^ "Poll: National falls, Labour gains". The New Zealand Herald. 21 September 2009. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  11. ^ "2009 poll results". Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  12. ^ a b "3 News Reid Research poll results". 3 News. 18 October 2009. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  13. ^ a b "Poll makes grim reading for Goff and Harawira". TVNZ. 29 November 2009. Retrieved 2 December 2009.
  14. ^ a b TVNZ Teletext. Retrieved 2 December 2009
  15. ^ a b "Goff finally passes Helen Clark as preferred PM". 3 News. 13 December 2009. Retrieved 15 December 2009.
  16. ^ a b Cheng, Derek (13 February 2010). "Poll records growing support for Key". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 14 February 2010.
  17. ^ "People more realistic about the economy – Key". 3 News. 22 February 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  18. ^ "2010 poll results". Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 13 March 2010.
  19. ^ "National-led Government (55%, down 2%) lead over Opposition Parties (45%, up 2%) – Cut to lowest since February 2009". Roy Morgan Research. 9 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  20. ^ Newstalk ZB (10 April 2010). "Support for National slips". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  21. ^ a b "National continues to ride high in the polls". ONE News. Television New Zealand. 18 April 2010. Retrieved 18 April 2010.
  22. ^ "Labour finding traction, Goff a little lost – poll". 3 News. 25 April 2010. Retrieved 26 April 2010.
  23. ^ a b c d "National-led Government (58.5%, up 3%) further ahead of Opposition Parties (41.5%); National up 2.5% to 53%, Labour down 4% to 29%". Roy Morgan Research. 9 July 2010. Archived from the original on 15 July 2010. Retrieved 16 July 2010.
  24. ^ a b New Zealand Press Association (30 May 2010). "Support for National dips – poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 May 2010.
  25. ^ "National's support dips in latest poll" (video). ONE News. Television New Zealand. 30 May 2010. Retrieved 30 May 2010.
  26. ^ a b "Roy Morgan Poll – 6 August 2010". 6 August 2010. Retrieved 12 August 2010.
  27. ^ a b "Labour's support up after tough month – tvnz.co.nz". 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  28. ^ a b c d "Labour makes gains in polls – nzherald.co.nz". The New Zealand Herald. 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  29. ^ a b "Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll – 3news.co.nz". 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  30. ^ a b c d "Roy Morgan Poll – 16 September 2010". 16 September 2010. Retrieved 5 October 2010.
  31. ^ a b ONE News (26 September 2010). "Surge in popularity for National – poll". Retrieved 30 September 2010.
  32. ^ "Roy Morgan Poll – 25 October 2010". 25 October 2010. Retrieved 3 November 2010.
  33. ^ "Voters weigh in on GST increase – poll – 3news.co.nz". 11 October 2010. Retrieved 13 October 2010.
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