Pre-election pendulum for the 2014 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2014 Victorian state election.

The margins are notional figures, calculated by Antony Green for the Victorian Electoral Commission following a redistribution of Victoria's electoral boundaries in 2013. Four seats (Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon and Yan Yean) are held by the Labor Party, but the redistributed boundaries have made them notionally Liberal-held.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Government seats Marginal Wendouree New seat LIB 0.1% Yan Yean Danielle Green (ALP) LIB 0.1% Carrum Donna Bauer LIB 0.3% Bentleigh Elizabeth Miller LIB 0.9% Monbulk James Merlino (ALP) LIB 1.1% Mordialloc Lorraine Wreford LIB 1.5% Ripon Joe Helper (ALP) LIB 1.6% Bellarine Lisa Neville (ALP) LIB 2.5% Forest Hill Neil Angus LIB 3.5% Prahran Clem Newton-Brown LIB 4.7% South Barwon Andrew Katos LIB 4.9% Fairly safe Burwood Graham Watt LIB 6.3% Ringwood New seat LIB 6.3% Bayswater Heidi Victoria LIB 6.8% Eildon New seat LIB 7.7% Mount Waverley Michael Gidley LIB 8.6% Gembrook Brad Battin LIB 8.8% Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 9.4% Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 9.6% Caulfield David Southwick LIB 9.8% Safe Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB 11.5% South-West Coast Denis Napthine LIB 11.9% Croydon New seat LIB 12.2% Bass Ken Smith LIB 12.4% Evelyn Christine Fyffe LIB 12.6% Rowville New seat LIB 13.1% Morwell Russell Northe NAT 13.3% Euroa New seat NAT 13.6% Nepean Martin Dixon LIB 13.7% Polwarth Terry Mulder LIB 13.8% Brighton Louise Asher LIB 14.3% Mildura Peter Crisp NAT 14.5% Bulleen Nicholas Kotsiras LIB 15.1% Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 15.6% Kew Andrew McIntosh LIB 15.7% Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 15.9% Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 16.0% Mornington David Morris LIB 16.2% Hawthorn Ted Baillieu LIB 16.6% Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 17.2% Ovens Valley New seat NAT 19.2% Very safe Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 20.5% Lowan Hugh Delahunty NAT 21.9% Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 22.5% Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 23.1% Shepparton Jeanette Powell NAT 25.9% Murray Plains New seat NAT 30.2% Independent seats − Coalition confidence and supply Frankston Geoff Shaw IND v ALP 2.1%

Non-government seats Marginal Eltham Steve Herbert ALP 0.8% Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 0.9% Cranbourne Jude Perera ALP 1.1% Buninyong New seat ALP 1.6% Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 1.8% Macedon Joanne Duncan ALP 2.3% Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 2.4% Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 3.1% Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 3.2% Brunswick Jane Garrett ALP v GRN 3.6% Geelong Ian Trezise ALP 4.0% Essendon Justin Madden ALP 4.3% Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 4.5% Melbourne Jennifer Kanis ALP v GRN 4.7% Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 4.8% Fairly safe Oakleigh Ann Barker ALP 5.1% Richmond Richard Wynne ALP v GRN 6.4% Sunbury New seat ALP 6.5% Narre Warren South Judith Graley ALP 7.4% Keysborough New seat ALP 9.5% Safe Northcote Fiona Richardson ALP v GRN 10.3% Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 10.9% Tarneit Tim Pallas ALP 11.0% Werribee New seat ALP 11.4% Sydenham New seat ALP 11.5% Altona Jill Hennessy ALP 12.4% Clarinda New seat ALP 12.4% Williamstown Wade Noonan ALP 13.2% Melton Don Nardella ALP 13.6% Lara John Eren ALP 13.8% Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 14.0% St Albans New seat ALP 14.0% Footscray Marsha Thomson ALP 15.9% Yuroke Liz Beattie ALP 16.0% Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 16.0% Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 17.5% Pascoe Vale Christine Campbell ALP 18.5% Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP 20.0% Very safe Preston Robin Scott ALP 20.2% Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 21.6%

See also

• Post-election pendulum for the 2010 Victorian state election