Talk:2003 European heat wave

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Is this a cause?[edit]

Cut from article:

If global warming ultimately leads to the slowing or shutting down of the Atlantic current, as some predict, it could, in the future, actually make Europe cooler.

This has nothing to do with the cause of any heat wave. --Uncle Ed 14:10, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Its also (at least according to the GCMs) not going to cause cooling William M. Connolley 17:17, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

A significant connection with climate change and this event would have to be made by scientific consensus. Has the IPCC made a strong connection between the heatwave and global warming caused by atmospheric Carbon Dioxide emissions in any of its reports? A strong wind known as the sirocco often blows from the Sahara and could also be involved in this event. Does anyone have any references to published data relating to the humidity during this period that may indicate a significant connection? A scientific study may have been done that investigates this. I am unaware of the published science that other Wikipedians may be aware of relating to these phenomena, it may predominantly exist in the public domain. It must be noted that this event is frequently used as an omen of future climate change, although the science surrounding the connection has not been confirmed by overwhelming scientific consensus. --Minotaur500 12:25, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

This is another cause?[edit]

The earth does not go around the sun, but around the barycenter of the solar system. Due to the large mass of Jupiter this point can actually lie outside of the sun at times, in the direction of Jupiter. When Jupiter is on the far side of the sun during the northern hemisphere summer, (making us closer to the sun than usual and thus hotter around June) I would expect France to have hot summers, eg the 2003 European heatwave.

6 years later (half a Jupiter orbit), eg 2009, when Jupiter is on the far side of the sun during the Australian summer, (making us closer to the sun than usual and thus hotter around December) I would expect the Australian summer to be warm, eg the bush fires of 2009; although much of the blame for the fires probably lies with the global warming hysterics cutting carbon emissions instead of back burning forest fuel such as leaves and twigs, thus creating the fuel the heatwave needed to become a disaster.

Astronomy programs such as Stellarium can be used to verify that Jupiter was on the far side of the sun during the 2003 European heatwave, and the 2009 Australian bush fires.

In the next few months, Jupiter will be pulling Earth away from the sun and I predict Arctic sea ice will increase (not in absolute terms, but) relative to the usual annual trend,something you can watch and veryify (www.nsidc.com) in the next six months and compare to global warming hysteric predictions such as an ice free north pole in 2008.

Crysta1c1ear (talk) 13:31, 3 April 2009 (UTC)

Typo on the number that died in Italy[edit]

The statement on Italy was that 20,000 died (About 20,000 people died in Italy). That is factually incorrect and way off. From one of the referenced articles: The searing August heat claimed about 7000 lives in Germany, nearly 4200 lives in both Spain and Italy. Over 2000 people died in the UK, with the country recording is first ever temperature over 100° Fahrenheit on 10th August. http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn4259

Sourcing[edit]

A serious effort into the sourcing of these temperatures is needed. I sourced some of the claims but had trouble on many others. Original authors would be useful in this endeavor. Ufwuct 22:10, 9 February 2007 (UTC)

The first paragraph of the "Causes" section (beginning "An anticyclone...") is directly copied from Encyclopaedia Britannica; moreover, it is very unclear what "20−30 percent above average" refers to in a quantitative sense here (apparently due to a confusion between absolute and relative temperature scales on the part of the author). Overall the passage contributes little to the section, and I propose its removal. 94.169.108.69 (talk) 22:13, 6 May 2009 (UTC)
With no opposition having been forthcoming, I have removed the aforementioned section. 94.169.108.69 (talk) 20:58, 30 July 2009 (UTC)

Requests for More Details For Actual Causes of Death[edit]

As an Arizona resident of 100% European decent, I know that regular white people can take that sort of heat, with or without humidity (we do have Monsoon season here...) Many of these so called heat-wave deaths are actually not fully caused by the heat alone. I would like to see more of a breakdown of the age groups, health prior to death, etc in the numbers if at all possible. If any of these deaths are indeed primarily heat related, then it should be stressed that the actual cause of death is dehydration, for the purpose of educating people on dealing with high temperatures so that such deaths do not occur in the future. Zaphraud 17:15, 6 July 2007 (UTC)

More died in France because (a) their buildings are not airconditioned nor designed to be well ventilated, and (b) nursing staff were absent in large numbers. Kransky 14:05, 29 August 2007 (UTC)
I work in the HVAC industry and I can't remember the last summer I haven't heard of a fellow contractor dying of heat stroke repairing air conditioners in the Phoenix area, and that's usually just from spending an hour or two working in an attic of a house with no A/C. Air conditioning is ubiquitous in Arizona and other hot parts of the USA, and people there can usually limit their exposure to high heat even if they are working outdoors. In France air conditioning is very rare, even in public buildings, and many people had nowhere to go when temperatures rose above 100F. Americans frequently overlook the luxury of having air conditioned buildings practically everywhere. 12.40.5.69 (talk) 18:41, 6 February 2008 (UTC)
Yeah, but this is hardly comparable when you consider that the temperatures outside are already far higher than the temperature ever got in France, and the temperatures in attics are often far, far higher than the temperatures outdoors. Temperatures of air exiting the "hot" side of the AC compressor are often in the neighborhood of 140F on a unit in new condition on a day when the outdoor air temperature is 115F; a failing unit (slow fan motor) may be blowing air far hotter than this. I would be far more inclined to believe the problem originates with a european tendency to drink alcoholic beverages when thirsty rather than just the heat itself, I haven't seen any reasonable explanation of why tens of thousands of people would die due to 104F heat when they had plenty of access to fresh, filtered water. Zaphraud (talk) 15:31, 17 June 2008 (UTC)

Statistics are WAY off![edit]

I don't care what source 1 says: http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn4259 2,000 people did NOT die in the UK from the heat wave! That's almost as many as September 11th! I live in the UK, and remember it all on the news, and I know that me remembering that isn't a good enough source for an encyclopedia, but neither is this awful webpage! Check the BBC links in this article, they're all talking about record temperatures, and some people getting hit by lightning... do you not think they'd make some reference to this record approaching UK death toll?! Or that they'd at least have a link to the related story on the right side of the page? This needs some serious looking at. Steve Barnes - 24 July 2007

Since you're not registered, you'll not see this. But WP is about verifiability, not truth. And you're probably wrong anyway, that number of people die in the UK every 12 days, so 2,000 extra would barely be a bump in the road. PalestineRemembered 15:35, 3 August 2007 (UTC)

Yes, statistic are WAY off, but in the opposite manner. Only 141 people died in Spain? That is AMAZING! The article needs more information on how the Spanish authorities dealt with this crisis in such an effective manner! But on another section 4 THOUSAND people died! Which is it? 72.226.243.12 17:39, 10 August 2007 (UTC)Rachaella

Need date on the "heat map"[edit]

The "heat map" in this article is wonderful. However, the date is not show, and it's important. The highest temperatures reached were near London, while Cornwall was quite chilly (16degC) on that same day. The map appears to show the opposite. PalestineRemembered 16:10, 3 August 2007 (UTC)

How can 15,000 people die from heat?![edit]

The mind boggles. I cannot for the life of me understand how 15,000 people in France can die in 40C. If it's hot, you drink lots of fluid - even a 10 year old knows this. I don't believe the air conditioning excuse for a second, because here in Melbourne, Australia, my grandmother lived in a retirement home which did not have air conditioning, and during our summers we have numerous 40C+ days. Nobody dies.Davez621 (talk) 12:53, 1 May 2008 (UTC)

--- answer: "even a 10 year old knows this". In Australia, not in France, where you NEVER meet such temperatures for such a long time, even at night. Those were old people. for you and me, it's obvious, but at 90+ they were too old to find a solution for a problem that they had never met. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 85.171.30.50 (talk) 02:08, 10 May 2009 (UTC)

It's also not as simple as that. In Australia, people's bodies have become accustomed to these sorts of temeratures all their lives, so 40C is nothing to them, but what would happen there if it plummeted to minus 30C? A Russian friend of mine says that they experience these temperatures regularly are pretty unfazed by them. Are Australian buildings / heating systems / clothing made to adapt to these temperatures? --Tuzapicabit (talk) 02:05, 4 February 2011 (UTC)

Actually, people DO die in Heatwaves in Australia, even in Melbourne. In January 2009 at the time of the Black Saturday heatwave, Victoria actually recorded 374 excess deaths as a result of the heatwave. This was a 62% increase in mortality at that time. All up, around 500 deaths in Eastern Australia were attributed to that heatwave. These are reported in the report: January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: An Assessment of Health Impacts, published by the Victoria Department of Health later that same year. Just because something didn't make the six o'clock news, it doesn't mean it didn't happen. Lesley Thomas. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 49.192.7.245 (talk) 06:27, 4 February 2014 (UTC)

Highly suspicious casualty numbers[edit]

The numbers of dead being bandied about in this article seem prima facie highly suspicious. The way the numbers were arrived at—taking the number of dead for 2003 and subtracting the "normal" number of dead from previous years—seems extraordinarily cavalier. Half a dozen obvious objections to this methodology can easily be made.

This reminds me of specious arguments in the early 1990's concerning women and rape, when it was claimed that a third of American college women would be raped at some point during their four years of schooling. Most mainstream media reported the astonishing finding without question, not reporting that all of them were parroting a single study. That study, when examined carefully, revealed several biased questions that inflated the numbers. Subsequent studies pegged the percentage at a drastically lower number. However, mainstream press continued to report the one-in-three figure for quite some time, because it was more attention-getting.

I suspect (though cannot prove at this time) that a similar "horror inflation" is going on. The number "50,000 dead because of global warming" seems sexy, but is it true?

Comments anyone?--TallulahBelle (talk) 23:43, 20 May 2008 (UTC)

In 2005 Jurgen Trittin, the present leader of the German Greens Party, said the Americans got what they deserved during the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina. He said we didn't do enough to fight Global Warming therefore we did it to ourselves. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 74.47.120.21 (talk) 19:11, 24 May 2009 (UTC)

50,000 sounds like a lot but it isn't. We are talking a total population of 300 million plus, and mainly those who are already ver weak for one reason or another. Rich Farmbrough, 11:45, 5 November 2009 (UTC).

Global Warming[edit]

I recently read an article that pointed out that a careful analysis of the event had shown that the heatwave would not have been as severe if it there hadn't been extra heat forcing caused by global warming. I'll try to find it and put it up. Cheers, Mondegreen de plume (talk) 00:35, 16 January 2011 (UTC)

Dead link[edit]

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