Jump to content

User:Azaiphy

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2019 European Parliament election in France, which will be held on 26 May 2019.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary

[edit]

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below, excluding those conducted on behalf of a political party or movement. The graphs are smoothed weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (with each poll weighted based on recency). Where possible, the scenario without gilets jaunes lists is used.


Voting intentions

[edit]

Polls marked with an asterisk (*) were conducted on behalf of a political party. The May 2018 Viavoice poll was conducted for Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV). The October 2018 Ifop polls tested two scenarios: one in which Ségolène Royal did not lead the Socialist Party (PS) list (in which the PS received 6%), and the other in which she did (in which it the PS received 7.5%). The December 2018 Ipsos poll was commissioned by La République En Marche! and obtained by Le Journal du Dimanche. The Ifop poll fielded from 3 to 4 December was conducted for Raphaël Glucksmann's movement Place Publique (and included the movement in a union list of the left).

Ifop-Fiducial polls completed after 7 March listed in the table below are "rolling" polls unless otherwise denoted by two asterisks (**).[1] Starting on 15 March, the poll asked specifically about a list consisting of Place Publique and the Socialist Party, as opposed to the PS alone. Until 26 March, the poll continued to ask about a list conducted by the NPA, which later ruled out its participation in the European elections due to its lack of funds.

As in every national vote, several polling firms will release estimations of the results after the closing of ballot boxes, including Harris Interactive.[2]

In 2014, the EELV alone received 8.95% of valid votes; in 2019, the party will run in a common list with the Independent Ecological Alliance (AEI) and Régions et Peuples Solidaires (R&PS), which received 1.12% and 0.34% of the vote in 2014, respectively, for a total of 10.41% of votes in 2014. The PS, which will run in a common list alongside Place Publique, received 13.98% of valid votes in 2014; in 2019, it will also be allied with New Deal, which received 2.90% of the vote in 2014, and Cap21, which received 0.67%; together, the lists received 17.56% of the vote in 2014.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. LO NPA FI PCF PS
PP
G.s EELV REM
MoDem
UDI Agir LR DLF RN LP UPR R! GJ Others
Harris Interactive 12–13 Apr 2019 1,031 1% 9.5% 2.5% 6.5% 4% 8% 22.5% 2% 14% 4% 21% 1% 2% 2%
1% 9% 2.5% 6.5% 4% 7.5% 22.5% 2% 14% 4% 20.5% 1% 2% 2.5% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 9–12 Apr 2019 1,388 58% 1% 8.5% 3.5% 5.5% 3% 7.5% 22% 2% 13% 5% 21.5% 1.5% 1% 1% 3% 1%
BVA 10–11 Apr 2019 1,402 50% 1.5% 8% 2% 5.5% 3.5% 7% 1% 24% 2% 13.5% 4% 20% 1% 1% 1.5% 3% 1.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 8–11 Apr 2019 1,395 58.5% 1% 9% 3.5% 5% 3.5% 7% 22.5% 2.5% 13.5% 5% 22% 1.5% 1.5% 1% 1.5%
1% 8.5% 3% 5.5% 3% 7% 22.5% 2.5% 13.5% 4.5% 21.5% 1.5% 1% 1% 3% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 6–10 Apr 2019 1,401 58.5% 1% 9% 3% 5.5% 3% 7% 22.5% 2.5% 13.5% 4.5% 21% 1.5% 1% 1% 3% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 5–9 Apr 2019 1,396 58% 1% 8.5% 2.5% 5.5% 3% 7.5% 22.5% 3% 13% 4.5% 21% 2% 1% 0.5% 3.5% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 4–8 Apr 2019 1,370 58% 1% 8.5% 2.5% 5% 3% 7.5% 23% 3% 13% 4.5% 20.5% 2.5% 1% 0.5% 3.5% 1%
Harris Interactive 5–6 Apr 2019 1,051 44% 1% 8.5% 2% 5.5% 3.5% 8% 23% 2% 13% 5% 21% 1.5% 2% 2% 2%
1% 8.5% 2% 5.5% 3.5% 8% 23% 2% 12% 5% 20% 1.5% 2% 1.5% 3% 1.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 2–5 Apr 2019 1,368 58.5% 1% 8.5% 2% 5% 3.5% 7.5% 23.5% 2.5% 13% 5% 21% 2% 1% 0.5% 3% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 1–4 Apr 2019 1,373 59% 1% 8.5% 2% 5.5% 3% 7.5% 23.5% 2% 13% 5.5% 22% 2.5% 1% 1.5% 1.5%
1% 8% 2% 5% 3.5% 7.5% 23.5% 2% 13% 5.5% 21% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 30 Mar–3 Apr 2019 1,370 59% 1% 8.5% 2.5% 5.5% 3% 7.5% 23% 1.5% 13% 5.5% 21% 2% 0.5% 1% 3.5% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 29 Mar–2 Apr 2019 1,397 59% 1% 8.5% 2.5% 5.5% 3% 8% 23% 1.5% 13.5% 5.5% 20.5% 1.5% 0.5% 1% 3.5% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 28 Mar–1 Apr 2019 1,370 59% 1% 8.5% 2% 5% 3% 8% 22.5% 2% 14% 5.5% 21% 1.5% 0.5% 1% 3.5% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 26–29 Mar 2019 1,366 58% 1% 8% 2% 5% 3.5% 8.5% 22.5% 1.5% 14% 5% 21% 2% 0.5% 0.5% 4% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 25–28 Mar 2019 1,361 58% 1% <0.5% 8% 2% 5.5% 3% 8.5% 22% 1.5% 14% 5% 21% 2% 1% 0.5% 4% 1%
Elabe 25–27 Mar 2019 1,201 56% 0.5% 7.5% 2% 6% 5% 9% 22.5% 3.5% 14% 3% 22% 1% 1% 3%
0.5% 7.5% 2% 5.5% 5% 9% 23% 3.5% 12.5% 3.5% 21% 1% 1% 2.5% 2.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 23–27 Mar 2019 1,382 58.5% 1% <0.5% 8% 2.5% 5% 3% 8% 22% 2% 14% 5% 20.5% 1.5% 1% 0.5% 5% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–27 Mar 2019 1,860 1% 0.5% 8% 2.5% 5% 3.5% 8.5% 21% 2% 14.5% 6% 21.5% 1.5% 1% 1.5% 2%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–26 Mar 2019 1,402 58% 1% 0.5% 8.5% 2% 5% 3% 8% 22% 2% 14% 5% 20% 1% 1.5% 0.5% 5% 1%
OpinionWay 20–26 Mar 2019 1,889 59% 2% 7% 3% 6% 2% 7% 23% 3% 13% 6% 23% 1% 1% 3%
Ifop-Fiducial 21–25 Mar 2019 1,409 58% 1% 0.5% 8.5% 2% 5% 3% 7.5% 22% 2% 14% 4.5% 20% 0.5% 2% 1% 5.5% 1%
Harris Interactive 22–23 Mar 2019 1,068 44% 1% 1% 8% 2% 7% 2.5% 7% 23% 2% 13% 5% 22% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2%
1% 0.5% 8% 1.5% 7% 2.5% 7% 23% 2% 13% 5% 21.5% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2%
Ifop-Fiducial 19–22 Mar 2019 1,390 59% 1% 0.5% 8% 2% 6% 3% 7.5% 23% 2% 13.5% 4.5% 20.5% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 5% 1%
BVA 20–21 Mar 2019 1,398 49% 1.5% 1% 7.5% 2% 5% 4% 8.5% 24% 1.5% 12% 5% 21% 1% 0.5% 1.5% 3% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 18–21 Mar 2019 1,402 59.5% 1% 0.5% 8% 2% 5.5% 3.5% 7.5% 23.5% 2% 13% 4.5% 21% 0.5% 1% 1% 4.5% 1%
Ipsos 15–21 Mar 2019 10,049 58% 0.5% 1% 8% 2% 6.5% 4% 8% 23.5% 2% 12% 5% 22% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 2.5%
0.5% 1% 7.5% 2% 6.5% 4% 8% 23.5% 2% 12% 4.5% 21% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 2.5% 2%
Ifop-Fiducial 16–20 Mar 2019 1,413 59.5% 0.5% 1% 7.5% 2% 5.5% 3.5% 7.5% 23.5% 1.5% 13% 4.5% 21.5% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 4% 1.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 15–19 Mar 2019 1,399 59% 0.5% 1% 7.5% 2% 5.5% 3.5% 7.5% 23.5% 1.5% 13% 4.5% 20.5% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 4.5% 2%
Ifop-Fiducial 14–18 Mar 2019 1,393 59% 0.5% 1% 7.5% 2% 6% 3% 8% 23.5% 1.5% 13.5% 4.5% 20.5% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 4% 1.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 12–15 Mar 2019 1,398 59% 0.5% 1% 7% 2% 6% 2.5% 8.5% 23.5% 1.5% 13.5% 5% 21% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 4% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 10–14 Mar 2019 1,401 59% 0.5% 1% 7.5% 2% 5.5% 2.5% 8.5% 24% 1.5% 13.5% 4.5% 21% 0.5% 1% 1% 4% 1.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 9–13 Mar 2019 1,384 58% 0.5% 1% 7.5% 2% 5.5% 2.5% 8.5% 24% 1.5% 13% 4.5% 21.5% 0.5% 1% 1% 4% 1.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 8–12 Mar 2019 1,378 58% 0.5% 1% 7.5% 2% 5.5% 2.5% 8% 24.5% 1.5% 12.5% 5% 21.5% 1% 1% 1.5% 3.5% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 7–11 Mar 2019 1,371 57.5% 0.5% 1% 7% 2% 5.5% 3% 8% 25% 1.5% 12.5% 5% 21.5% 1% 1% 1.5% 3% 1%
Harris Interactive 8–9 Mar 2019 1,090 44% 2% 1% 9% 2% 5% 3% 8% 22% 1% 14% 5% 21% 2% 1% 1% 3%
2% 1% 9% 1% 5% 3% 8% 22% 1% 13% 5% 20% 2% 1% 1% 3% 3%
Ifop-Fiducial 5–8 Mar 2019 1,386 58% 0.5% 1% 7% 2% 5% 2.5% 7.5% 24.5% 2.5% 13% 5% 22% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 3% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 4–7 Mar 2019 1,381 59% 0.5% 1% 7% 2.5% 5% 2% 7.5% 24% 3% 13% 5.5% 22% 0.5% 1.5% 1% 3% 1%
Elabe 25–27 Feb 2019 1,201 59% 1% 8% 2.5% 5% 3% 10% 22% 2% 13% 5.5% 22% 1% 1% 4%
1% 7% 3% 5% 3% 9% 22% 2.5% 12% 5% 21.5% 1% 1% 3% 4%
OpinionWay 20–27 Feb 2019 2,218 59% 2% 7% 2% 6% 4% 6% 22% 2% 14% 5% 22% 1% 1% 6%
Harris Interactive 22–23 Feb 2019 1,064 46% 1% 2% 8% 2% 6% 4% 8% 22% 2% 12% 6% 20% 1% 1% 1% 4%
1% 2% 8% 2% 6% 4% 8% 22% 2% 12% 5% 19% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3%
BVA 20–21 Feb 2019 929 48% 1% 1% 7.5% 2% 5% 3% 9% 25% 2% 10% 6% 19% 1% 0.5% 1.5% 4% 2.5%
Ifop 20–21 Feb 2019 1,004 1% 1% 6.5% 2% 5% 4% 8.5% 22% 3.5% 10% 6.5% 23% 1% 0.5% 2.5% 3%
Ipsos 15–21 Feb 2019 10,002 58% 0.5% 1% 8.5% 2% 5.5% 5.5% 8.5% 23% 2.5% 12% 6.5% 21% 1% 0.5% 2%
0.5% 1% 8% 2% 5% 5% 8% 23% 2.5% 12% 6% 19.5% 1% 0.5% 1.5% 4.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 13–15 Feb 2019 1,367 1% 1% 7.5% 3% 6% 3.5% 9% 24% 2% 10% 6% 20% 1.5% 0.5% 2% 3%
1% 1% 7% 2.5% 6% 3.5% 8.5% 24% 2.5% 10% 6% 20% 1% <0.5% 1.5% 3% 2.5%
OpinionWay 17–25 Jan 2019 1,810 57% 1% 8% 2% 6% 4% 8% 20% 3% 12% 7% 22% 1% <1% 6%
Elabe 22–23 Jan 2019 1,000 70% 0.5% 9.5% 2% 6% 2% 9% 23.5% 3% 12.5% 5% 20.5% 1.5% 1% 4%
0.5% 8% 2% 5% 1.5% 8.5% 22.5% 3% 11.5% 3.5% 17.5% 0.5% 1% 13% 2%
Ifop-Fiducial 8–9 Jan 2019 934 1.5% 9.5% 2.5% 4% 2.5% 6.5% 23% 3.5% 10% 7.5% 21% 1.5% 0.5% 3% 3.5%
1.5% 7% 2.5% 4.5% 2.5% 6.5% 23% 3.5% 10% 6% 18.5% 1.5% 0.5% 2% 7.5% 3%
Odoxa 19–20 Dec 2018 926 2.5% 11.5% 2% 7% 3% 6.5% 19% 2.5% 8% 7% 24% 1% 1% 3% 2%
3.5% 10.5% 1% 6% 3% 6% 19% 2% 8% 7% 21% 1% 1% 2% 8% 1%
Ifop 7–10 Dec 2018 938 1.5% 9% 2.5% 4.5% 3.5% 8% 18% 3% 11% 8% 24% 1% 0.5% 2.5% 3%
Ipsos* 5–6 Dec 2018 957 1.5% 12% 1% 4% 3.5% 14% 21% 3% 12.5% 6% 17% 0.5% 0.5% 3.5%
1% 9% 1.5% 3% 3% 13% 21% 3% 11% 4.5% 14% 0.5% 0.5% 3% 12%
BVA 26 Nov–6 Dec 2018 5,456 50% 1% 10% 2% 5% 5% 7% 20% 3% 12% 7% 21% 1% 1% 2% 3%
Ifop* 3–4 Dec 2018 944 1.5% 11.5% 14% 15% 4% 13% 7.5% 23.5% 1% 1% 2% 6%
1.5% 11.5% 11.5% 4% 16% 4.5% 12.5% 8% 24% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 3.5%
Ifop 9–12 Nov 2018 945 1% 10% 2% 6% 3% 7% 19% 4% 13% 6% 22% 1% 1% 2% 3%
Elabe 6–7 Nov 2018 1,002 56% 0.5% 11% 2.5% 7% 2.5% 7% 19.5% 4% 15% 6.5% 20% 1% 0.5% 3%
Ifop 30–31 Oct 2018 905 2% 11% 2% 7.5% 2.5% 7% 19% 3% 13% 7% 21% 1% 1% 3%
Ifop 25–29 Oct 2018 1,382 1% 11% 3% 6% 3% 7% 20% 3% 14% 6.5% 20% 1% 1.5% 3%
Odoxa 12–13 Sep 2018 907 1% 12.5% 1.5% 4.5% 4% 5% 21.5% 3% 14% 6% 21% 1.5% 1% 1% 2.5%
Ifop-Fiducial 30–31 Aug 2018 1,403 2% 14% 2% 6% 3% 7.5% 20% 2.5% 15% 6.5% 17% 1% 0.5% 3%
2% 14% 2% 6% 3% 7.5% 21% 4% 14% 6.5% 17% 0.5% 0.5% 2%
Ipsos 27 Jun–2 Jul 2018 998 58% 1% 1% 13% 1% 4% 4% 4% 26% 3% 15% 7% 18% 1% 1% 1%
Ifop-Fiducial 25–27 Jun 2018 1,374 1% 11% 2.5% 6% 3% 6% 23% 2.5% 15% 6% 19% 1% 1% 3%
Elabe 29–30 May 2018 1,004 67% 1% 10% 1% 6% 1.5% 8% 24% 2% 15% 5.5% 19.5% 1.5% 1% 4%
Harris Interactive 22–23 May 2018 1,673 49% 1% 12% 2% 8% 2% 4% 28% 2% 13% 7% 15% 1% 1% 1% 3%
Viavoice* 7–11 May 2018 1,506 2% 2% 9% 1% 6% 7% 9% 32% 12% 6% 14%
3% 2% 11% 2% 7% 13% 33% 11% 6% 12%
Ifop 7–9 May 2018 920 2% 14% 7% 3% 3% 27% 15% 6% 17% 1% 1% 1% 3%
2% 13% 2% 8% 4% 27% 3% 13% 6% 17% 1% 1% 3%
Ifop 29 Nov–1 Dec 2017 1,007 1% 14% 2% 8% 4% 26% 3.5% 12% 6% 17% 2% 1.5% 3%
2014 election 25 May 2014 57.57% 1.17% 0.39% 6.61% (FG) 17.56% 10.41% 9.94% (L'Alt.) 20.81% 3.82% 24.86% 0.41% 4.02%

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "[COMMUNIQUE DE PRESSE] EURO-ROLLING 2019 - Le rendez-vous quotidien du scrutin européen" (PDF). Ifop. 4 March 2019. Retrieved 4 March 2019.
  2. ^ @TF1Pro (24 February 2019). "LE GROUPE TF1, RTL et LE FIGARO SIGNENT UN PARTENARIAT AVEC HARRIS INTERACTIVE et l'Agence EPOKA POUR LES ELECTIONS EUROPÉENNES" (Tweet). Retrieved 24 February 2019 – via Twitter.
[edit]

Category:Opinion polling in France France