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May 17

toilet paper shortage?

Is anyone still experiencing inconvenient levels of TP shortage? I'm in California and local grocery stores seem to have some on hand now. I don't know about big box stores. It is not yet available for delivery from Costco (all versions are out of stock) but most other Costco shortages and delays have cleared up by now. I'm wondering about the current TP situation and if there is a way to track this stuff. Thanks. 2601:648:8202:96B0:3567:50D5:8BFF:4588 (talk) 04:46, 17 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Can't speak to California, or USA, I'm a lot further south. Last Friday (15 May) and the one before there were adequate TP stocks on the shelves at local supermarkets. Also tissues, hand sanitiser, napkins, sugar, flour, pasta, most items that were short in April seem to be available now, though I think that limits are still in force.
There was a period I didn't see any TP on the shelves for about 6 weeks (Late Feb. To mid April?). I was able to be blase about it all because in late February, I was running out of TP but I managed to get a 12 pack just before the rush really started. Those 12 rolls lasted about 10 weeks. And I've bought two 6 packs since. 220 of ^Borg 15:31, 17 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

If anyone could explain to me why TP suddenly became the #1 top-priority thing to stock up on, even before lockdown was put into effect, I'd be pleased. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 23:38, 17 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It's a combination of things, at least one entirely natural: people normally use a significant proportion of their TP in the workplace, at school, and so on. I never noticed institutional toilet paper becoming hard to find. Also, it's real annoying to run out of TP. And the madness of crowds. --jpgordon^{𝄢𝄆 𝄐𝄇} 04:46, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Indeed. Some commenters I read (I don't know their source) stated that due to the UK lockdown, use of household toilet paper necessarily increased by 40%, and that in the workplace, etc., decreased by 40%. The two are generally not interchangeable due to different qualities, designs and vendors, so their supply chains were left with a shortage and surplus respectively, until the manufacturers were able to reassign their production processes. As retail shops generally operate on "just-in-time" stocking, this inevitably resulted in household TP shortages, and although so-called "panic buying" and stockpiling by a relatively few consumers proved very newsworthy, it probably had an insignificant effect overall. {The poster formerly known as 87.81.230.195} 90.197.24.23 (talk) 07:23, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

@Jpgordon: Home usage up (by 40% apparentlt), yeh I read the same and it made sense, but people were getting trolley-fulls, and fighting over it, and in my area there was at least one reported assault & rob of TP! As above I was real lucky in getting a good supply right at the start so I never had any worries. I did hear on the radio that morning that Woolies was going to put limits on TP. As I needed more and was going past that shop anyway, I got some without trouble, but in a few days the shelves were empty, for weeks. 220 of ^Borg 12:43, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think you can say it had an insignificant effect overall. (Although I have no idea what's going on in the US and why they still have shortages.) As JackOfOz said, in a number of places, the shortages began at the beginning of the lockdown or often before them. While there was already some suggestion of working from home at this time, the biggest factos seem to have been local news about the spread of the virus. So this was likely before the increases in household use really began to have a significant effect in what was required. We should also remember how at the peak, in some places you had situations where the toilet paper was all gone within hours of being restocked [1]

Another good indication that these were a factor is that in a number of countries, the extreme shortages that began early on before the lockdowns had often ended long before the lockdowns did e.g. [2]. While production may have increased a bit e.g. [3] [4], I don't think there's much evidence it was actually much of a factor in ending the shortage since most evidence suggests there was never really a shortage on the manufacturing side. Logistics may have been a bigger factor [5] although even there it's not clear how much. A big problem with toilet paper is it's very bulky so there is limited ability to keep large stocks in stores even if you are willing [6] [7] [8] [9] [10], you therefore mostly have to rely on increased deliveries. (I've also heard it claimed that in Singapore, they had some initial panic buying and resulting shortages but the government then told them to cut that crap out and being typical Singaporeans, they mostly followed.)

I'd argue that consumer behaviour and naturally increase demand are sufficiently linked so IMO it's difficult to actual separate the relative involvement of the different factors. While people buying whole cart loads, or fighting in stores may be a bit of an extreme reaction, we shouldn't forget there is plenty of reaction in between. If someone knows they are likely to be using more toilet paper at home, even though they may still have stock for 3 weeks even with a likely increased demand and they full expect to be back at the store sometime in the next 1-2 weeks, they may think "well I should buy toilet paper just in case". They then get the to store and find there's hardly any left. So they may think, "well I was only going to buy 2 pack, but who knows if there will be any next time so I'll buy 3". Many people are bad at estimating requirements, especially with differing circumstances, and not everyone bothers to check properly before making purchasing decisions, again probably with some influence from shortages and similar factors, maybe even if the person tries their best not to be influenced. (I'm reminded of that US Senator who insisted he made the decision to sell his stocks based solely on public information, not based on the private information he was privy to.)

A better example of something which may be mostly increased demand due to differing size requirements is IMO be flour where manufacturers often had major trouble filling the increase demand for smaller bags (1.5kg or at most 5kg) in part arising from increase home baking, compared to the 20kg or larger bags common for bakeries etc which were in good supply. Although even then, the issues are linked enough that it's IMO difficult to separate the different factors at play. Since again, the low supplies is likely to influence behaviour. It may mean someone may buy flour even if they don't think they will need it before they are next at the supermarket. Some people may be the opposite. I personally believe albeit without any real evidence, that in most cases there are enough who are more likely to buy if they fear a shortage etc to sufficiently counter the effect of those who will be "kind" and not buy unless they are sure they would need it even if normally they would buy it. You'd likely need to do some sort of market research e.g. asking people if they bought flour during the lockdown or just before it, how much they bought, and when they actually used that flour, to try and quantify the various effects.

Nil Einne (talk) 09:01, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

TL:DR. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 22:48, 19 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Our attention spans as a global society are rapidly going down the drain. Pretty soon it'll be difficult to focus on any sentence longer than "How now, brown cow?" Shame.--WaltCip (talk) 13:10, 21 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Nil Einne has a way of taking a hundred words to say "hello". I've asked him numerous times over the years, both publicly and privately, to be more concise in his posts. Far more concise. But no go. So I have to resort to bluntness to make my point, in the hope that my example will somehow influence him. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 23:26, 21 May 2020 (UTC) [reply]

This article is about a month old, but it does give a lot of details on the toilet paper shortage in the US. I live in North Carolina and the shortage is for real here. I haven't seen a single pack at my local grocery store in over a month (which may have had some but had it all snatched up by the time I got there), and the last time I saw some in mid-April, I got one of the last 4-packs in the store. I was able to find some at another store about 2 weeks ago, but probably just got lucky. I have been shopping 1 day a week at 1 store, to follow social distancing guidelines, so perhaps there has been some on other days, and my shopping cycle doesn't match the supply cycle. --Jayron 32 12:21, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]
Here in Florida (not the Miami/Palm Beach area) the grocery store in my region has been consistently stocked with toilet paper, as well as other household staples such as paper towels, detergent, pasta, rice, soup, beans, water, and bread. But I also live in a more upscale part of town, and have been told that poorer and more densely populated areas in the city have experienced shortages of these supplies. I am not surprised that, even as socially transcendent as COVID-19 is, that a class divide exists.--WaltCip (talk) 12:40, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I saw claims that residential TP was in short supply while there was a glut of institutional TP, but in practice it was hard to get either kind. Institutional TP besides having different distribution channels, usually doesn't have retail packaging and is sold in big (like 96 roll) cartons with no UPC barcodes. It's usually possible to order it from places like restaurant supply stores or Staples, but for a while they were all out of stock. It is easier now, I think. 2601:648:8202:96B0:3567:50D5:8BFF:4588 (talk) 04:44, 20 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It's curious that "the herd" focusses on toilet paper as the principal commodity to hoard when there's an impending emergency. There was a similar stampede here in Britain last autumn when the possibility of a No-deal Brexit could have caused import delays, however the UK is a major producer of the stuff and exports more than is imported. [11] Alansplodge (talk) 11:16, 21 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

California lockdown

Is the California lockdown still on? If so, how long does it last? Freeknowledgecreator (talk) 07:16, 17 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Have you tried googling "california lockdown dates"? ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 12:32, 17 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

That specific search produces 4 hits on Google, one of which is this page. Anyone can give me the information directly if they like. Freeknowledgecreator (talk) 08:29, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Have you checked the California government web page? There could be something about it. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 10:27, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

This was published 4 days ago. You are free to read it on your own and draw your own conclusions. It was the first link I got when googling California Lockdown. The next several links look similarly informative as well. --Jayron 32 12:15, 18 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

[12] --47.146.63.87 (talk) 20:19, 19 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Although the four-part reopening process is statewide, each county is rolling it out in a different fashion. Here's a page you can look at to examine where your county is at in terms of stay-at-home orders/reopening. bibliomaniac 1 5 22:43, 19 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It is still on, but relaxed compared to earlier. Look at the California newspapers (www.latimes.com, www.sfgate.com, etc.) for more info. Also reddit.com/r/CoronavirusCA . 2601:648:8202:96B0:3567:50D5:8BFF:4588 (talk) 04:41, 20 May 2020 (UTC)[reply]