Serbian parliamentary election, 2014
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The 2014 Serbian parliamentary election was held on 16 March, with nineteen electoral lists competing for 250 members of the National Assembly. The election was called early, after tensions in the coalition led by Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), who ruled the country since 2012. President of Serbia Tomislav Nikolić scheduled the election at the same time as previously announced Belgrade local election. According to the preliminary results based on 99,08% of counted votes, the turnout was 53.09%, with 3.22% votes invalid.
Serbian Progressive Party with minor partners won the election by a landslide, winning 48.35% of votes and absolute majority of 158 seats in the assembly. Its former partner Socialist Party of Serbia with partners matched its previous achievement with 13.49% and 44 seats, while only two more non-ethnic lists surpassed the 5% threshold: the Democratic Party (DS) with 6.03% and 19 seats, and the list led by former president Boris Tadić with 5.70% (18 seats). A number of long-time parliamentary parties, notably Democratic Party of Serbia, United Regions of Serbia and Liberal Democratic Party failed to surpass the census.
Since the 2000 elections which followed ousting of Slobodan Milošević's government, no party has won an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Aleksandar Vučić, seen as the future Prime Minister, announced formation of new government by 1 May, and did not exclude possibility of forming a wider ruling coalition despite the absolute majority of SNS in the parliament.
- 1 Background
- 2 Electoral system
- 3 Observers
- 4 Electoral lists
- 5 Candidates
- 6 Opinion polls
- 7 Results
- 8 Government formation
- 9 References
Following the last election, the coalition gathered around the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won a plurality. After two months of negotiations, the Serbian Progressive Party formed a coalition government with the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS). Ivica Dačić (SPS) became prime minister, while Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) became first deputy prime minister. The former ruling party and now main opposition, Democratic Party (DS), suffered heavy losses in the election but retained a majority in Belgrade, a coveted position in Serbian politics. A internal split within the DS over leadership following the election further weakened its position with Belgrade mayor, Dragan Đilas (DS) losing a non-confidence vote.
With SNS ratings at an all-time high and growing tension within the ruling coalition, first deputy PM Aleksandar Vučić called for early parliamentary elections to be held. Some analysts believe that Vučić holds the most influence in the government. Despite speculation that he would not, prime minister Ivica Dačić agreed to hold early parliamentary elections. On 29 January, President Tomislav Nikolić responded to the calls by dissolving parliament and scheduling early elections for 16 March 2014.
The National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia is a unicameral parliament with 250 seats. The entire country is a single whole electoral unit, with all votes accumulated together and then MPs allocated in accordance to the D'Hondt method. The electoral threshold is set at 5%. However, electoral lists that are officially submitted as aiming to represent one of the country's registered national minorities have no barrage set. That means that, according to the valid electoral law, such a list needs to win 0.4% of the total votes in order to secure its 1st MP seat.
Despite the rejection of the Kosovan Albanians and in context of the Kosovo problem, the voting will also be organized on the territory of Kosovo, as per UNSCR 1244 (1999) and the Kumanovo Technical Agreement. However they will be handled, and not just overseen, by the OSCE.
A total of 8,262 voting stations have been prepared on the territory of Serbia (excluding Kosovo). On 1 March the RIK had declared that in Serbia there is a total of 6,767,324 eligible voters, which is some twelve thousand less than in 2012. The RIK subsequently formed 90 voting stations for the disputed territory of Kosovo.
The Center for Free Elections and Democracy, CeSID, will be the only domestic observer. Among the international organizations that Serbia is a member of, neutral observers will come from OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE, OSCE Mission in Serbia, as well as the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. One international org. Serbia is not a part of has also sent its observes; namely, the Commonwealth of Independent States. Albania and Russia have sent their observing missions from their domestic Commissions, as well as the American, British and Bulgarian embassies in Belgrade. The elections will also be observed by the Common Network of International Observers from Japan.
M — National minority list
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The Serbian Progressive Party renewed their coalition with the minister Velimir Ilić's party New Serbia and the Movement of Socialists of minister Aleksandar Vulin, as it was in the previous election (2012) when President Nikolić headed the coalition. The coalition was this time joined by Rasim Ljajić's Social Democratic Party and Vuk Drašković's monarchist Serbian Renewal Movement (who along with themselves bring their internal coalition partner, the Christian Democratic Party of Serbia, which was once a partner of the Democratic Party), the former previously running with the opposition Democratic Party and the latter the likewise opposition Liberal Democratic Party. In accordance to the coalition treaty, SPDS is to receive at least 10 seats, NS and the SPO-DHSS coalition individually 5, while PS 3.
The Serbian Strength Movement of the tycoon under criminal charges in flight Bogoljub Karić was at the previous election a coalition partner; this time not being officially so, the list still does contain its members as official candidates. The same is the case with the Coalition of Refugee Associations in the Republic of Serbia, the People's Peasant Party and the Association of Small and Medium Companies and Entrepreneurs of Serbia. Of the several parties of national minorities that ran along the last time, all have broken off cooperation except for the Bosniak People's Party, which has just like Karić's Movement also candidates on the list. SNS' list also contains former prominent Social Democrat Ljiljana Nestorović, and architect Branka Bošnjak (previously in the URS).
The Progressives' list is backed by a party in union with SDPS, the Sandžak Democratic Party, as well as the Sandžak People's Party, which signed an agreement of endorsement. On 9 February, the Civic Initiative of Gora had decided to support SNS, and the next day the same did the Movement of Laborers and Peasants. SNS has also received endorsement from the Dinara-Drina-Danube Movement, the United Peasant Party, as well as its former coalition partner that got 1 MP at the previous election, the Roma Party. Through Ljajic's mediation, by March the Movement of Frontiersmen and the Diaspora had agreed to endorse this electoral list.
In the previous election, the SNS got 55 seats within its coalition, while NS 8 and PS 1. The other minor coalition partners that are present on the list in this election had won in total 6 seats. Of the formerly partners of the opposition; with the Democratic Party, SDPS received 9 seats within its coalition, while DHSS 1; SPO got 4 within its coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party.
The second list is identical to the previous election, the coalition of the three parties led by the now outgoing Prime Minister, around his Socialist Party of Serbia. JS leader Dragan Marković "Palma" announced that JS will this time ask for participation in the government just like SPS and PUPS, rather than just endorsing it like the two previous terms, demanding a minister's position for himself in the future government.
The coalition won a total of 44 seats on the previous election, 24 going to SPS, 12 to PUPS and 7 to JS. SPS does not include the Serbian Veteran Movement as it traditionally did, which broke off in late 2013 due to disagreeing over the most recent Kosovo policies.
Democratic Party of Serbia
The Euroskeptic Democratic Party of Serbia of ex PM Vojislav Koštunica was considering options about the formation of a "Patriotic Bloc" which would stand up to the political elite's dominating pro-EU stance, the coalition being called forth by the Dveri (with the Serbian Radical Party mentioned as a potential third coalition partner) movement. DSS stated that it has chosen not to form a block with other organizations that expressed an interest to because it feels that these organizations have not fully embraced DSS positions and that they merely want to join for the purpose of entering the parliament. DSS officially submitted to the Republic Electoral Commission its candidate electoral list on 6 February.
DSS' list also contains candidates from the Serbian Veteran Movement, a party that was originally SPS' partner but defected in late 2013 due to differences over Kosovo policies, which they perceive as treacherous. PVS received 1 seat of SPS' 25 within the SPS-PUPS-JS coalition, while DSS itself won 21 MPs.
The Liberal Democratic Party was originally invited to be a part of ex republic president Boris Tadić's large civic democratic bloc. After rejecting it accusing Boris Tadić for a policy of failure and the past, and failing to attempt to arrange a coalition with LSV (its partner at the 2007 elections and with whom it shares many ideological similarities), LDP had talks for joining Djilas' Democratic Party-led coalition. After those negotiations reached a moot end, LDP finally decided to form its own list. It will go in coalition with the national minority Bosniak Democratic Union of Sandžak, a political party founded the previous year as a fraction of BDU, and LDP's traditional ally, the Social Democratic Union. The Association of Free and Independent Trade Unions has endorsed LDP in this election too.
At the 2012 election, LDP won 13 seats in a coalition, while SDU got 1 MP in the same one.
On 8 February the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians had submitted its electoral list, thus becoming the first national minority to do so (according to electoral law there is no electoral threshold for national minority lists). SVM leader István Pásztor announced the plan is to secure the five MPs won at the previous election,
Serbian Radical Party
The ultra-nationalist SRS was invited to become a part of a patriotic bloc by the Dveri movement along with DSS, which it rejected. It decided to gather its own list, which also includes leading members from two extremist organizations: the clerofascist "Srbski Obraz" Movement (which was officially banned by the constitutional court in 2012, a decision that still awaits factual implementation) and the far-right Serbian National Movement "Ours".
The democratic party, led by Djilas, has announced that it will be in a coalition with the following parties: New Party, the Democratic Union of Vojvodina Croats (DSHV), the United Trade Unions of Serbia Sloga, and Rich Serbia.
As a response to the DLR's coalition with Tadic's New Democratic Party-Greens, DS has announced negotiations with over 20 Romani NGOs and cultural and public laborers, who will endorse the electoral list for a democratic Serbia.
New Democratic Party
Former president Boris Tadic has announced the attempts of creating a democratic bloc: the New Democratic Party, which will be made up of his followers who broke off of the democratic party, LSV, ZZS, some Bosniak and Hungarian minority parties and the Greens.
In early February, the Greens of Serbia had officially decided to elect Tadić as their leader and join NDS, which will be henceforth known as "New Democratic Party - The Greens". NDS-Greens had signed an official coalition mid-February with ZzS and LSV; according to the treaty LSV shall get 6 MPs and ZZS 2, with the option for a 3rd MP for the latter should their common list win more than 10% votes.
Borislav Pelević had dreams of an anti-systematic Patriotic Front. Having it been rejected by the DSS and SRS, Dveri decided to run independently, which made the nationalist politician attempt to form his own coalition from the remaining factors, including:
- Council of Serbian Unity (Pelevic's party)
- Serbian Council Patrons
- National Movement Revival of Serbia
- Serbian Movement Free Serbia
- Society of War Veterans, Invalids and the Families of Fell Fighters of Serbia
- Ravna Gora Movement
The opposition will run very fragmented. The key opposition force, Democratic Party, struck by the most recent mid-campaign resignation of honorary party and former republic president Boris Tadić, intends to run in a coalition with: the recently formed New Party of ex PM Zoran Živković, Rich Serbia (which was formerly a coalition partner of the LDP), the Associated Syndicates of Serbia "Concord" and a number of activists for human rights and civic liberties, among whom is also Aida Ćorović.
Former Serbian president and DS long-time leader Tadić broke off a fraction of the party and announced the formation of a New Democratic Party, which would supposedly be loyal to the ideas of his old party, rather than the authoritarian approach of his successor Dragan Đilas (former Belgrade mayor). It will be a broad political alliance of civic and pro-European political parties and movements, including the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, Together for Serbia (a political party already formed by braking off from the DS when Đilas took over leadership from Tadić after the 2012 elections), Democratic Party of Vojvodina Hungarians, Greens of Serbia and the "Bosniac Bloc" national minority political alliance led by minister Sulejman Ugljanin.
Tadić's initial plan was to form a broad opposition alliance that would unite under his wing everyone that is neither DS nor DSS, giving a third option with the aim of tapping the mass of the undecided. The Liberal Democratic Party was invited to be a part of his coalition, however LDP has disagreements with Tadic and dismissed him as the leader of a past Serbia and policy of failure. After failing to form a coalition with LSV (as in 2007), LDP announced, after negotiations failed to join the bloc of Đilas' Democrats, its own list which will likely traditionally include the Social Democratic Union. Although an initial plan was to include the United Regions of Serbia in the democratic civic bloc and negotiations were held on the way, they failed due to long-term Tadic-Dinkić rivalries and URS is likely to run independently, for the first time since its formation as a political party.
|Pollster||Date of Polling||SNS||DS||NDS||SPS||DSS||URS||LDP||SRS||Dveri||Radulovic||Others||Margin of Error||Ref.|
|Faktor Plus||January 2013||36||15.3||N/A||11.8||7.3||5.2||5.1||unknown|||
|Ipsos Strategic Marketing||February 2013||41||13||N/A||13||7||3||7||3||2||unknown|||
|Ipsos Strategic Marketing||March 2013||43||17||N/A||15||5||3||5||3||15||unknown|||
|Faktor Plus||18–23 July 2013||40.9||11.8||N/A||10.6||7.4||13.7||unknown|||
|Faktor Plus||27–30 September 2013||41.5||11.8||N/A||12.7||6.1||4.4||5.8||13.7||unknown|||
|CeSID||10 October 2013||42||11||N/A||16||6||5||7||2||11||unknown|||
|Ninamedia||5 February 2014||44.7||14.1||N/A||12.6||7.1||3.3||4.0||3.1||11.1||unknown|||
|Faktor Plus||5–6 February 2014||43.0||11.6||N/A||13.1||7.0||2.6||5.2||2.8||6.8||unknown|||
|Ninamedia||14 February 2014||44.1||14.2||N/A||15.1||6.1||3.1||4.7||3.4||9.3||unknown|||
|Faktor Plus||15 February 2014||41.4||10.5||7.8||13.2||7.0||2.7||5.1||2.3||3.0||7.3||unknown|||
|Ninamedia||16–18 February 2014||44.9||10.2||5.9||13.8||6.8||3.1||4.6||3||2.9||4.8||unknown|||
|Ipsos Strategic Marketing||mid-February 2014||50.1||4.2||11.8||13.2||6.8||2.8||5.1||2||2.2||1.9||unknown|||
|Informer (newspaper)||mid-February 2014||48.8||6.1||8.6||9.4||7.8||5.3||4.7||1.4||2.9||5||unknown|||
|Faktor Plus||16 February 2014||44.6||9.1||8||13||6.8||5.2||13.2||unknown|||
|Ninamedia||23–25 February 2014||45.2||9.9||6.1||13.1||7.2||3.8||4.8||2.9||3||4||unknown|||
|CeSID||22–28 February 2014||44||7||8||13||5||4||6||3||4||6||unknown|||
|Ninamedia||2–4 March 2014||44.9||10.4||7||13.9||6.9||3.6||4.6||2.8||3.1||1.3||1.5||unknown|||
|Ninamedia||6–9 March 2014||43.3||9.7||7.3||15.1||6.4||3.8||4.5||3.5||3.1||1.1||2.2||unknown|||
According to the preliminary results released by the RIK at 24:00, showed the Progressive-led coalition winning 48.34% of the vote (158 seats), with the SPS-PUPS-JS coming second at 13.51% (44), Democratic-led coalition third with 6.04% votes (19) and Boris Tadić's coalition 5.71% (18).
Of the minorities, the SVM qualified with 3.01% votes and 6 MPs, SDA with 1.09% and a total of 3 seats and the Albanians' minority list with 0.89% votes and 2 seat.
RIK published official preliminary results after 100.00% counted votes.
|Democratic Party of Serbia||152,436||4.24||0||21|
|United Regions of Serbia||109,167||3.04||0||16|
|Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians||75,294||2.10||6||1|
|Enough of That||74,973||2.09||0||New|
|Serbian Radical Party||72,303||2.01||0||—|
|Party of Democratic Action of Sandžak||35,157||0.98||3||1|
|Party for Democratic Action||24,301||0.68||2||1|
Final results have to be published by 20 March.
Although SNS alone has the required minimum of 126 seats, it is expected it will maintain its pre-electoral coalition with SDPS, NS and SPO-DHSS, along with all of the lesser partners such as PS. Vučić announced negotiations with everyone, including Dačić, Tadić, the minorities and even Đilas. Dačić has noted that there were no discussions of government formation, but that SPS-PUPS-JS is ready to continue on where it left off. Đilas noted that the Democrats exclude any possibility of coalition and that they will have talks merely with President Nikolic, rejecting his call. While all of the three (Hungarian, Bosniac and Albanian) minority parties have noted that they are ready to enter the government, Ljajic has explicitly noted that SDPS will not be a part of the future ruling coalition if SDA joins it. Tadić considers the Socialists responsible for bad policy so his coalition will not join with the Progressives' if a coalition with the SPS shall be restored.
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- None of the Above (NOPO)
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- Including PUPS and JS.
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- full SNS-SDPS-SPO-NS-PS electoral list)
- including all coalition partners within the list
- including 1.3% for the Hungarian SVM and 0.7% for the Bosniak SDA
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