2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Turnout	59.4% (voting eligible)
	Casey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Smith: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
U.S. senator before election; Bob Casey Jr.; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Bob Casey Jr.; Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.

The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.

Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. The election was the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election. As of 2024, this is the last time that Fayette County and Luzerne County voted Democratic in a Senate election.This is also the only time since 1956 that Democrats have won a Pennsylvania Senate race in a presidential year.

Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]^[3]
Joseph Vodvarka, spring maker^[4]

Results

Democratic primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent)	565,488	80.9
	Democratic	Joseph Vodvarka	133,683	19.1
Total votes			699,171	100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate^[6]
John Kensinger, pharmacist^[7]
Sam Rohrer, former state representative from Robeson Township and candidate for governor in 2010^[8]
Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum^[3]
Tom Smith, farmer and businessman and candidate for governor in 2010^[9]
Steve Welch, businessman^[10]

Withdrew

Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general elections^[11]
Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activist^[12]
John Vernon, retired Army colonel^[13]

Declined

Jake Corman, state senator^[14]
Charlie Dent, U.S. representative^[15]
Jim Gerlach, U.S. representative^[3]^[16]
Keith Loiselle, businessman^[17]
Glen Meakem, radio host^[3]^[16]
Pat Meehan, U.S. representative^[18]
Tim Murphy, U.S. representative^[19]
Dominic Pileggi, State Senate Majority Leader^[20]
Mark Schweiker, former Pennsylvania governor^[21]
Bill Shuster, U.S. representative^[15]
Mike Turzai, State House Majority Leader^[3]
Kim Ward, state senator^[22]
Joe Watkins, MSNBC contributor^[17]

Campaign

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate.^[23] The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.

Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2–1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising.^[24] Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years.^[25] Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes).^[26] Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.^[27]

Sam Rohrer, a former state representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.^[28]

David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.^[29]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Burns	David Christian	Laureen Cummings	John Kensinger	Sam Rohrer	Marc Scaringi	Tom Smith	John Vernon	Steve Welch	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[30]	November 17–20, 2011	400	±4.9%	15%	—	2%	—	25%	0%	3%	1%	1%	8%	43%
Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV^[31]	February 2–6, 2012	500	±4.4%	—	1%	—	3%	10%	1%	8%	—	1%	—	72%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	March 8–11, 2012	564	±4.1%	—	10%	—	—	16%	8%	12%	—	5%	—	48%
Franklin & Marshall College^[33]	March 20–25, 2012	505	±4.2%	—	1%	—	—	7%	1%	9%	—	1%	—	81%

Results

Republican primary results^[5]^[34]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tom Smith	299,726	39.5
	Republican	Sam Rohrer	169,118	22.3
	Republican	Steve Welch	158,181	20.9
	Republican	David Christian	79,581	10.5
	Republican	Marc Scaringi	51,908	6.8
Total votes			758,514	100.0

General election

Candidates

Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
Tom Smith (Republican), businessman
Rayburn Smith (Libertarian)^[35]

Debates

Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	$7,664,686	$2,754,060	$6,226,560	$5,261
Tom Smith (R)	$7,954,211	$5,673,558	$2,280,655	$6,475,000
Source: Federal Election Commission^[36]

Top contributors

^[37]

Bob Casey, Jr.	Contribution	Tom Smith	Contribution
Comcast Corp	$95,175	Rosebud Mining	$26,000
Blank Rome LLP	$65,500	Tj Smith Trucking	$15,000
Reed Smith LLP	$61,800	Penneco Oil Co	$12,500
Cozen O'Connor	$44,975	Transportation Equipment Supply Co	$11,500
University of Pennsylvania	$44,450	R&S Machine Co	$10,250
Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney	$43,098	Citizens United	$10,000
K&L Gates	$42,650	Mepco LLC	$10,000
Pride Mobility Products	$40,250	Snyder Armclar Gas	$10,000
Blue Cross & Blue Shield	$39,950	Stitt Management	$10,000
National Amusements Inc.	$39,250	Penn Waste	$10,000

Top industries

^[38]

Bob Casey, Jr.	Contribution	Tom Smith	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$2,095,026	Retired	$104,725
Lobbyists	$407,472	Mining	$87,800
Real Estate	$389,559	Republican/Conservative	$43,500
Health Professionals	$336,023	Oil & Gas	$40,750
Financial Institutions	$335,998	Misc Business	$35,300
Retired	$329,132	Financial Institutions	$25,500
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products	$313,597	Misc Manufacturing & Distributing	$19,650
Hospitals/Nursing Homes	$296,737	Leadership PACs	$19,000
Entertainment Industry	$237,825	Misc Energy	$18,000
Insurance	$221,750	Trucking	$15,250

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[39]	Lean D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[40]	Lean D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[41]	Likely D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[42]	Lean D	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Tom Smith (R)	Other	Undecided
Angus Reid Public Opinion^[43]	November 2–4, 2012	507	± 4.2%	53%	46%	1%	—
Public Policy Polling^[44]	November 2–3, 2012	790	± 3.5%	52%	44%	—	3%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call^[45]	November 1–3, 2012	430	± 5%	48%	42%	2%	9%
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna^[46]	October 29–31, 2012	800	± 3.4%	46%	45%	2%	8%
Franklin & Marshall College^[47]	October 23–28, 2012	547	± 4.2%	46%	36%	4%	13%
Philadelphia Inquirer^[48]	October 23–25, 2012	600	± 4%	49%	42%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports^[49]	October 24, 2012	500	± 4.5%	46%	45%	—	9%
Pharos Research^[50]	October 19–21, 2012	760	± 3.6%	52%	42%	—	6%
Muhlenberg College Poll^[51]	October 17–21, 2012	444	± 5%	45%	37%	2%	16%
Angus Reid Public Opinion^[52]	October 18–20, 2012	559	± 4.2%	51%	45%	4%	—
Quinnipiac^[53]	October 12–14, 2012	1,519	± 2.5%	48%	45%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling^[54]	October 12–14, 2012	500	± 4.4%	50%	39%	—	11%
Muhlenberg^[55]	October 10–14, 2012	438	± 5%	41%	39%	1%	18%
Susquehanna Polling^[56]	October 11–13, 2012	1,376	± 2.6%	46%	48%	1%	5%
Rasmussen Reports^[57]	October 9, 2012	500	± 4.5%	49%	45%	1%	5%
Philadelphia Inquirer^[58]	October 4–8, 2012	600	± 4%	48%	38%	—	14%
Susquehanna Polling^[59]	October 4–6, 2012	725	± 3.7%	46%	44%	—	9%
Siena Poll^[60]	October 1–5, 2012	545	± 4.2%	44%	35%	—	16%
Muhlenberg College^[61]	September 22–26, 2012	427	± 5%	44%	36%	7%	13%
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll^[62]	September 18–24, 2012	1,180	± 3%	49%	43%	—	—
Franklin & Marshall^[63]	September 18–23, 2012	392	± 4.9%	48%	38%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports^[49]	September 19, 2012	500	± 4.5%	49%	42%	2%	7%
Muhlenberg College^[64]	September 10–16, 2012	640	± 4%	45%	33%	5%	18%
Philadelphia Inquirer^[65]	August 21–23, 2012	601	± 4%	53%	34%	—	13%
MCall/Muhlenberg Poll^[66]	August 20–22, 2012	422	± 5%	49%	30%	—	18%
Franklin & Marshall College^[67]	August 7–12, 2012	681	± 3.8%	35%	23%	2%	39%
Quinnipiac^[68]	July 24–30, 2012	1,168	± 2.9%	55%	37%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling^[69]	July 21–23, 2012	758	± 3.6%	46%	36%	—	18%
Rasmussen Reports^[49]	July 18, 2012	500	± 4.5%	49%	38%	—	9%
We Ask America^[70]	July 9–10, 2012	1,227	± 2.8%	53%	39%	—	8%
Quinnipiac^[71]	June 19–25, 2012	1,252	± 2.8%	49%	32%	1%	17%
Quinnipiac^[72]	June 5–10, 2012	997	± 3.1%	51%	32%	1%	14%
Franklin & Marshall College^[73]	May 29–June 4, 2012	412	± 4.8%	42%	21%	2%	35%
Rasmussen Reports^[49]	May 21, 2012	500	± 4.5%	48%	41%	3%	7%
Public Policy Polling^[74]	May 17–20, 2012	671	± 3.8%	49%	33%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	31%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling^[75]	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	48%	32%	—	20%

Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jake Corman	Laureen Cummings	Charlie Dent	Jim Gerlach	Tim Murphy	Rick Santorum	Marc Scaringi	Mark Schweiker	Kim Ward	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[76]	June 30 – July 5, 2011	376	± 5.1%	9%	5%	4%	7%	9%	47%	1%	—	0%	18%
Public Policy Polling^[77]	January 3–5, 2011	400	± 4.9%	3%	—	8%	9%	7%	45%	1%	8%	1%	19%
Public Policy Polling^[77]	January 3–5, 2011	400	± 4.9%	9%	—	10%	14%	13%	—	1%	18%	2%	33%

General election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Generic Republican	Depends on the candidate	Undecided
Quinnipiac^[78]	March 7–12, 2012	1256	± 2.8%	46%	34%	8%	12%
Morning Call^[79]	February 15–21, 2012	625	± 4%	40%	25%	20%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Tim Burns (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[75]	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	49%	34%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	David Christian (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[32]	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	50%	32%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Jake Corman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[80]	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	51%	35%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[81]	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	35%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Laureen Cummings (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[80]	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	51%	31%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling^[81]	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	32%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Charlie Dent (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[81]	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	31%	—	18%
Municipoll ^[82]	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	51%	32%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling ^[83]	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	51%	31%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Jim Gerlach (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[80]	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	49%	33%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling^[81]	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	50%	32%	—	19%
Municipoll ^[82]	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	48%	34%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling ^[83]	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	49%	33%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Tim Murphy (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[80]	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	47%	35%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Sam Rohrer (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[32]	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	34%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling^[75]	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	47%	36%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Rick Santorum (R)	Other	Undecided
Morning Call^[79]	February 15–21, 2012	625	± 4%	44%	36%	7%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[75]	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	49%	39%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling^[80]	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	48%	39%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling^[81]	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	49%	37%	—	13%
Municipoll ^[82]	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	50%	38%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling ^[83]	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	48%	41%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling ^[84]	June 19–21, 2010	609	± 4.0%	51%	39%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Marc Scaringi (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[32]	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	29%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling^[80]	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	47%	29%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling^[81]	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	28%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling ^[83]	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	50%	27%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Mark Schweiker (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling ^[83]	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	47%	34%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Kim Ward (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[81]	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	50%	29%	—	21%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Steve Welch (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[32]	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	31%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling^[75]	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	47%	33%	—	20%

Results

Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he could win. Casey did win by more than expected, which can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County, home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in statewide elections in Pennsylvania. Casey also performed well in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh. Casey also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it wasn't enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013.

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012^[85]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent)	3,021,364	53.69%	−4.95%
	Republican	Tom Smith	2,509,132	44.59%	+3.31%
	Libertarian	Rayburn Smith	96,926	1.72%	N/A
Total votes			5,627,422	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Armstrong (Largest city: Kittanning)
Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
Clearfield (Largest township: DuBois)
Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage)
Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)
Columbia (Largest city: Bloomsburg)
Elk (Largest city: St. Marys)
Forest (Largest city: Marienville)
Indiana (Largest city: Indiana)
Somerset (largest city: Somerset)
Schuylkill (Largest city: Pottsville)
Warren (Largest city: Warren)
Westmoreland (Largest township: Hempfield Township)
Washington (Largest township: Peters Township)

By congressional district

Casey won 9 of the 18 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans.^[86]

District	Smith	Casey	Representative
1st	15.85%	83.36%	Bob Brady
2nd	8.61%	90.74%	Chaka Fattah
3rd	53.94%	43.87%	Mike Kelly
4th	54.81%	42.78%	Jason Altmire
4th	54.81%	42.78%	Scott Perry
5th	55.83%	41.46%	Glenn Thompson
6th	48.56%	49.72%	Jim Gerlach
7th	48.23%	50.58%	Pat Meehan
8th	47.74%	50.94%	Mike Fitzpatrick
9th	58.99%	38.94%	Bill Shuster
10th	58.12%	39.84%	Tom Marino
11th	51.35%	46.54%	Lou Barletta
12th	52.79%	45.31%	Mark Critz
12th	52.79%	45.31%	Keith Rothfus
13th	30.84%	68.37%	Allyson Schwartz
14th	27.74%	70.02%	Mike Doyle
15th	48.2%	50.02%	Charlie Dent
16th	51.6%	46.52%	Joe Pitts
17th	40.96%	57.28%	Tim Holden
17th	40.96%	57.28%	Matt Cartwright
18th	53.4%	44.81%	Tim Murphy

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^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ Angus Reid Public Opinion Archived March 11, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Archived November 6, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Tribune-Review/Susquehanna
^ Franklin & Marshall College
^ Philadelphia Inquirer
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Rasmussen Reports
^ Pharos Research Archived October 31, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Muhlenberg College Poll ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ Angus Reid Public Opinion ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ Quinnipiac
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Muhlenberg Archived October 18, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Susquehanna Polling ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Philadelphia Inquirer
^ Susquehanna Polling
^ Siena Poll
^ Muhlenberg College Archived October 21, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll
^ Franklin & Marshall Archived October 6, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Muhlenberg College Archived September 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Philadelphia Inquirer
^ MCall/Muhlenberg Poll
^ Franklin & Marshall College
^ Quinnipiac Archived August 1, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Public Policy Polling
^ We Ask America
^ Quinnipiac Archived October 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Quinnipiac Archived October 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Franklin & Marshall College
^ Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Quinnipiac Archived September 13, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ ^a ^b Morning Call
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c Municipoll
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ "Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results". electionreturns.pa.gov.
^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

External links

Pennsylvania Department of State Archived February 12, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
Issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[VEP12-1] Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.

[2] Itkowitz, Colby (November 21, 2010). "Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election". The Morning Call. Archived from the original on September 5, 2012. Retrieved November 25, 2010.

[ppg01-3] Malloy, Daniel (November 26, 2010). "Murrysville native planning for 2010 run against Casey". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved November 26, 2010.

[Vodvarka-4] Itkowitz, Colby (February 15, 2012). "Petitions filed for Pa. primary". The Allentown Morning Call. Archived from the original on September 9, 2012. Retrieved February 22, 2012.

[primaryreturns-5] "2012 General Primary: United States Senator". PA Department of State. Retrieved April 25, 2012.

[christian-6] "2012: David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race". Pike County Republican Committee. Archived from the original on November 15, 2011. Retrieved September 24, 2011.

[7] Reabuck, Sandra K. (September 28, 2011). "New Paris pharmacist seeks GOP nomination". The Tribune-Democrat. Retrieved September 30, 2011.

[rohrer-8] Levy, Marc (November 4, 2011). "Sam Rohrer to run for Casey's Senate seat". MSNBC. Retrieved November 6, 2011.^{[dead link‍]}

[9] Guerriero, John (September 29, 2011). "Armstrong County Republican announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Erie". Erie Times-News. Retrieved September 30, 2011.

[welch-10] Gibson, Keegan (September 13, 2011). "Welch to Enter Senate Race". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 14, 2011.

[11] "Burns Exits Senate Race". PoliticsPA. February 2, 2012. Retrieved February 2, 2011.

[12] Gibson, Keegan (January 14, 2012). "Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns". Politics PA. Retrieved January 16, 2012.

[13] Jerry, Tara (January 16, 2012). "Vernon Endorses Burns for Senate". Politics PA. Retrieved January 17, 2012.

[14] "State College, PA - Corman Not Running for U.S. Senate in 2012, He Says". www.statecollege.com. Archived from the original on July 4, 2011.

[mc01-15] Itkowitz, Colby (December 10, 2010). "Dent versus Casey?". The Morning Call. Archived from the original on July 22, 2013. Retrieved December 10, 2010.

[nj01-16] Jacobs, Jeremy P. (November 16, 2010). "GOP Looking For A Casey Challenger". National Journal. Archived from the original on February 12, 2012. Retrieved November 25, 2010.

[politico-17] "Is Casey closer to a serious challenger?". Politico. August 4, 2011. Retrieved August 8, 2011.

[18] "GOP wooing U.S. Rep. Pat Meehan to seek nod to run against Sen. Casey - delcotimes.com". www.delcotimes.com. Archived from the original on September 13, 2012.

[19] Hundt, Brad (August 31, 2011). "U.S. Rep. Murphy says he won't run for Senate next year". Observer-Reporter. Retrieved September 2, 2011.^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[20] Sullivan, Sean (December 5, 2011). "Pileggi Won't Challenge Casey in Pa". National Journal. Archived from the original on December 23, 2011. Retrieved December 5, 2011.

[21] "not-in-the-cards"/20152 "Schweiker: Senate Run "Not in the Cards"". PoliticsPA. January 14, 2011. Retrieved January 15, 2011.

[22] "EXCLUSIVE: State Senator Kim Ward Emerges as Potential Challenger to Bob Casey". PoliticsPA. December 8, 2010. Retrieved December 9, 2010.

[23] Levy, Mark (January 29, 2012). "Pa. GOP endorses Welch to challenge Sen. Casey". Associated Press. Archived from the original on February 7, 2012. Retrieved April 28, 2012.

[24] "Smith outspends, outraises Welch in US Senate race". Associated Press. April 13, 2012. Retrieved April 28, 2012.

[25] Gibson, Keegan (April 16, 2012). "Where's Tom Smith?". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.

[26] Gibson, Keegan (March 26, 2012). "Smith Tax Votes Play in Senate Campaign". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.

[27] Gibson, Keegan (August 17, 2011). "Sen. Candidate Smith a Heavyweight GOP Donor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.

[28] Gibson, Keegan (March 28, 2012). "Bachmann Endorses Rohrer". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.

[29] "Primary 2012: Nominate Christian". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Archived from the original on September 8, 2012. Retrieved April 28, 2012.

[30] Public Policy Polling

[31] Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV

[Public_Policy_Polling-32] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Public Policy Polling

[33] Franklin & Marshall College

[smithwinsprimary-34] Brennan, Kevin (April 24, 2012). "Smith Wins Pennsylvania Senate Primary". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 27, 2012. Retrieved April 25, 2012.

[35] "11/6/2012 2012 GENERAL ELECTION GENERAL CANDIDATE LIST" (PDF). Pennsylvania Department of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 4, 2016. Retrieved August 27, 2012.

[auto-36] "Browse data". FEC.gov.

[37] "Congressional Races". OpenSecrets.

[38] "Kansas District 04 2012 Race". OpenSecrets.

[39] "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[40] "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[41] "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[42] "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[43] Angus Reid Public Opinion Archived March 11, 2013, at the Wayback Machine

[44] Public Policy Polling

[45] Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Archived November 6, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[46] Tribune-Review/Susquehanna

[47] Franklin & Marshall College

[48] Philadelphia Inquirer

[Rasmussen_Reports-49] Rasmussen Reports

[50] Pharos Research Archived October 31, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[51] Muhlenberg College Poll ^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[52] Angus Reid Public Opinion ^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[53] Quinnipiac

[54] Public Policy Polling

[55] Muhlenberg Archived October 18, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[56] Susquehanna Polling ^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[57] Rasmussen Reports

[58] Philadelphia Inquirer

[59] Susquehanna Polling

[60] Siena Poll

[61] Muhlenberg College Archived October 21, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[62] Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll

[63] Franklin & Marshall Archived October 6, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[64] Muhlenberg College Archived September 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[65] Philadelphia Inquirer

[66] MCall/Muhlenberg Poll

[67] Franklin & Marshall College

[68] Quinnipiac Archived August 1, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[69] Public Policy Polling

[70] We Ask America

[71] Quinnipiac Archived October 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[72] Quinnipiac Archived October 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[73] Franklin & Marshall College

[74] Public Policy Polling

[publicpolicypolling.com-75] Public Policy Polling

[76] Public Policy Polling

[77] Public Policy Polling

[78] Quinnipiac Archived September 13, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[Morning_Call-79] Morning Call

[ReferenceA-80] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Public Policy Polling

[ReferenceB-81] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Public Policy Polling

[Municipoll-82] Municipoll

[ReferenceC-83] Public Policy Polling

[84] Public Policy Polling

[85] "Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results". electionreturns.pa.gov.

[86] "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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v t e (2011 ←) 2012 United States elections (→ 2013)
U.S. President	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Guam (straw poll)
U.S. Senate	Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
U.S. House (Election ratings)	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona 8th sp Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois 2nd sp Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky 4th sp Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan 11th 11th sp Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey 10th sp New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio Oklahoma Oregon 1st sp Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia U.S. Virgin Islands Washington 1st sp West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Governors	American Samoa Delaware Lt. Gov Indiana Missouri Lt. Gov Montana New Hampshire North Carolina Lt. Gov North Dakota Puerto Rico Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia Wisconsin (recall)
Attorneys general	Missouri North Carolina Pennsylvania
Other statewide elections	Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor (recall)
State legislatures	Arizona Senate California Assembly Senate Connecticut Senate Delaware House Senate Florida House Hawaii House Senate Illinois House Senate Iowa Senate Michigan House Minnesota House Senate Montana House New Mexico House Senate New York Senate North Carolina House Senate Oregon Legislative Assembly Pennsylvania House Senate Texas House Senate Washington House Senate Wisconsin Assembly Senate recalls Wyoming Senate
Mayoral	Alexandria, VA Anchorage, AK Augusta, GA Austin, TX Bakersfield, CA Baton Rouge, LA Cheyenne, WY Corpus Christi, TX Fort Lauderdale, FL Fresno, CA Glendale, AZ Honolulu, HI Huntsville, AL Irvine, CA Juneau, AK Lubbock, TX Mesa, AZ Miami-Dade County, FL Milwaukee, WI Orlando, FL Portland, OR Richmond, VA Riverside, CA Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Juan, PR Santa Ana, CA Stockton, CA Virginia Beach, VA Wilmington, DE
States and territories	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas U.S. Virgin Islands Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Background

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Polling

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Top contributors

Top industries

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

See also

References

External links