2023 Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol provincial elections: Difference between revisions

2023 Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol
provincial elections
	Provincial election in Trentino
President before election; Maurizio Fugatti; League	Elected President ; Maurizio Fugatti; League
	Provincial election in South Tyrol
	All 35 seats to the Landtag of South Tyrol
Arno Kompatscher; SVP	TBD

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Revision as of 13:52, 23 October 2023

The 2023 Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol provincial elections took place on 22 October 2023.^[1] It is scheduled to be the final regional election in the country of 2023.

Background

Since the 2018 Italian general election, many changes started to occur in the Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol political landscape. For the first time since the 1996 Italian general election, the centre-right coalition managed to defeat the centre-left coalition in Trentino in a general election. Shortly thereafter, the Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party (PATT) decided to run separately (German: Blockfrei), leading to the first victory of the Maurizio Fugatti-led centre-right coalition in a provincial election in Trentino since the start of the Second Italian Republic with the 1994 Italian general election.

In South Tyrol, the traditionally dominant-party system led by the South Tyrolean People's Party (SVP) lost its majority in the 2013 Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol provincial elections. In the 2018 general election, the SVP and the Democratic Party of the centre-left coalition lost their majority, forcing SVP to form a coalition with Lega due to the ethnischer Proporz [it; de] system (Italian: proporzionale etnica). In the 2019 European Parliament election in Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol, the SVP broke their traditional alliance with the PD and joined forces with the centre-right Forza Italia. Similarly in the 2022 general election SVP and PATT decided to run separated from the centre-left and joined forced with some centre-right autonomist parties like Trentino Project.^[2]

After Brothers of Italy became largest party in Trentino in the 2022 general election, FdI proposed Francesca Gerosa as the new centre-right candidate.^[3] This led to a conflict with PATT, which joined the centre-right coalition in an election for the first time since 2001, which strongly spoke against her.^[4]

Trentino

In Trentino, the president is elected directly by the people; the candidate who gains the most votes is elected president.

Parties and candidates

Political party or alliance		Constituent lists		Previous result		Candidate
Political party or alliance		Constituent lists		Votes (%)	Seats	Candidate
	Centre-right coalition^[5]^[6]		League Trentino (LT)	27.1	13	Maurizio Fugatti
			Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party–Popular Autonomists (PATT–AP) (incl. PT)	17.8	6
			La Civica (LC)	4.6	2
			Forza Italia (FI)	2.8	1
			Union of the Centre (UDC)	2.1	0
			Brothers of Italy (FdI)	1.4	0
			Fassa Association (Fassa)	1.0	1
			Fugatti for President	—	—
	Democratic Alliance for Trentino^[7]		Democratic Party (PD) (incl. Future Communes)	13.9	4	Francesco Valduga
			Campobase (CB)	4.0	1
			Greens and Left Alliance (AVS)	1.4	0
			Action (Az)	—	—
			Italia Viva (IV)	—	—
			FASCEGN	—	—
			Autonomy House (CA)	—	—
	Five Star Movement (M5S)			7.2	1	Alex Marini
	People's Wave		People's Union	0.8	0	Filippo Degasperi
			Wave	—	—
			My Valley ("Mi Val" in the dialect of Primiero Valley)	—	—
	Alliance for Trentino		Us with Divina for President (NcD)	—	—	Sergio Divina
			Popular Alternative (AP)	—	—
			Youth for Divina	—	—
	Sovereign Popular Democracy (DSP)			—	—	Marco Rizzo
	Alternativa			—	—	Elena Dardo

Opinion polling

Candidates


Date	Polling firm	Sample size	Fugatti	Valduga	Marini	Degasperi	Divina	Rizzo	Dardo	Others	Lead
Date	Polling firm	Sample size								Others	Lead
2–3 October 2023	BiDiMedia	1,000	42.7	35.9	4.2	4.5	9.0	3.2	0.5	—	6.8
12–17 September 2023	TermometroPolitico	1,000	35	36	5	2	13	6	—	3	1

Hypothetical candidates


Date	Polling firm	Sample size	Fugatti	Generic CSX	Valduga	Gerosa	M5S	Autonomists	Degasperi	Divina	Others	I don't know/ No Response/ No-One	Lead
Date	Polling firm	Sample size									Others	I don't know/ No Response/ No-One	Lead
2–3 October 2023	BiDiMedia	1,000	41.8	—	35.9	—	5.9	—	—	—	—	—	5.9
September 2023	Insa	1,000	29	—	12	—	—	—	5	2	1	49	17
March 2023	Winpoll	–	35	39	—	17	7	—	—	—	2	—	3
			29	45^[a]	—	18	6	—	—	—	2	—	16
			23	36	—	16	6	17	—	—	2	—	13
			49^[b]	43^[a]	—	—	6	—	—	—	2	—	6

Political parties


Date	Polling firm	Sample size	Centre-right									Centre-left								M5S	Onda Popolare			Alliance for Trentino				DSP	Alt.	Lead
			Lega	PATT–PT–AP	La Civica	FI	UdC	FdI	Fassa	NM^[c]	Fugatti	PD	Futura^[c]	CB	AVS	Az	IV	CA	FASCEGN	M5S	UP	Onda	LMV	TAL^[c]	NcD	AP	GDP	DSP	Alt.

2–3 October 2023	BiDiMedia	1,000	10.6	6.7	5.3	1.3	0.8	13.6	1.1	—	5.6	16.3	—	6.8	3.7	2.0	1.3	4.8	0.7	3.9	1.0	2.5	0.8	—	3.5	3.2	1.3	2.7	0.5	2.7
11–14 July 2023	Winpoll	850	10	11	4	3	1	20	—	2	—	18	1	3	6	3	2	2	—	7	4		—	2	—	—	—	1	—	2

South Tyrol

Parties

Name			Ideology	Leading candidate(s)	2018 result		Current seats
Name			Ideology	Leading candidate(s)	Votes (%)	Seats	Current seats
	SVP	South Tyrolean People's Party	Christian democracy Regionalism	Arno Kompatscher^[1]	41.9%	15 / 35	14 / 35
	TK	Team K	Liberalism Regionalism	Paul Köllensperger Maria Elisabeth Rieder^[8]	15.2%	6 / 35	4 / 35
	Lega	Lega Alto Adige Südtirol–United for South Tyrol	Right-wing populism Regionalism	Christian Bianchi^[9]	11.4%	4 / 35	3 / 35
	V–G–V	Greens (incl. SI)	Eco-socialism Regionalism	Brigitte Foppa^[10]	6.8%	3 / 35	3 / 35
	dF	Die Freiheitlichen	National conservatism Separatism	Sabine Zoderer^[11]	6.2%	2 / 35	2 / 35
	STF	South Tyrolean Freedom	National conservatism Separatism	Sven Knoll^[12]	6.2%	2 / 35	2 / 35
	PD	Democratic Party (incl. PSI)	Social democracy	Sandro Repetto^[13]	3.8%	1 / 35	1 / 35
	M5S	Five Star Movement	Populism	Diego Nicolini	2.4%	1 / 35	1 / 35
	FdI	Brothers of Italy	National conservatism	Marco Galateo	1.7%	1 / 35	1 / 35
	FI	Forza Italia (incl. UdC)	Liberal conservatism	Carlo Vettori	1.0%	0 / 35	1 / 35
	FSmW	For South Tyrol with Widmann	Christian democracy Regionalism	Thomas Widmann^[14]	DNE		1 / 35
	Enzian	Enzian	COVID-19 scepticism Regionalism	Josef Unterholzner^[15]	DNE		1 / 35
	Vita	Vita	COVID-19 scepticism Anti-establishment	Renate Holzeisen^[16]	DNE		0 / 35
	JWA	Jürgen Wirth Anderlan List	Separatism Right-wing populism	Jürgen Wirth Anderlan^[17]	DNE		0 / 35
	CD	Centre-Right	Conservatism	Filippo Maturi^[18]	DNE		0 / 35
	LC	La Civica (incl. Az, IV)	Liberalism	Emanuela Albieri	DNE		0 / 35

Opinion polling

Local regression trend line of poll results


Date	Polling firm	Sample size	SVP	TK	Lega	V-G-V	dF	STF	PD	M5S	FdI	FI	Enzian	FSmW	JWA	Vita	Others	Lead
Date	Polling firm	Sample size															Others	Lead
Sep 2023	Insa	1,000	35	11	4	12	6	5	3	2	7	2	—	5	2	2	4	23
Aug–Sep 2023	Apollis	1,002	32	14	5	11	6	6	4	—	7	2	—	5	3	2	3	18
Jul 2023	Insa	1,000	37	8	7	12	9	7	3	1	7	4	1	—	—	—	4	25
Apr 2023	Demox	–	36.5	12.5	5.5	10.5	6.5	6.5	3.5	2.5	7.5	1.5	—	—	—	—	4	24
Feb–Mar 2023	Apollis	–	40	13	3	14	7	6	4	2	6	—	1	—	—	—	4	26
Early 2023	Komma (leak, incomplete)	–	36.5	TBA	5	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	5	8	1.5	TBA	—	—	—	–	N/A
Aug 2022	Apollis	–	37	11	5	17	8	4	4	2	6	—	3	—	—	—	3	20
Jan 2022	Apollis	–	42	8	8	14	6	7	4	1	4	—	1	—	—	—	5	28
Jul 2021	Apollis	1,001	43	9	10	13	4	7	6	2	2	—	0	—	—	—	4	30
21 Oct 2018	2018 provincial election	284,361	41.9	15.2	11.4	6.8	6.2	6.0	3.8	2.4	1.7	1.0	—	—	—	—	4.0	26.7

Results


Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	South Tyrolean People's Party	97,092	34.53	13	–2
	Team K	31,201	11.09	4	–2
	South Tyrolean Freedom	30,583	10.88	4	+2
	Greens	25,445	9.05	3	+1
	Brothers of Italy	16,747	5.96	2	+1
	Jürgen Wirth Anderlan List	16,596	5.90	2	new
	Die Freiheitlichen	13,836	4.92	2	0
	Democratic Party	9,707	3.45	1	0
	For South Tyrol with Widmann	9,646	3.43	1	0
	Lega–United for South Tyrol	8,541	3.04	1	–3
	La Civica	7,301	2.60	1	new
	Vita	7,222	2.57	1	new
	Five Star Movement	2,086	0.74	0	–1
	ENZIAN	1,990	0.71	0	new
	Forza Italia	1,625	0.58	0	0
	Centre-Right	1,601	0.57	0	new
Total		281,219	100.00	35	–

Valid votes		281,219	96.87
Invalid/blank votes		9,080	3.13
Total votes		290,299	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		432,156	67.17
Source: Official Results

References

^ ^a ^b "SVP-Leitung ernennt Arno Kompatscher zum Spitzenkandidaten". Südtirol News (in German). 28 February 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Progetto Trentino e le elezioni, appoggio al Patt e alla Svp, Grisenti: «L'unica scelta per l'autonomia»". ladige.it (in Italian). 19 August 2022. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Fratelli d'Italia sfida Fugatti e lancia Francesca Gerosa come candidata presidente della Provincia". ladige.it (in Italian). 12 January 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Accordo Patt-Lega: c'è la fumata bianca. Marchiori: "Gerosa presidente con Fdi? Mai presa in considerazione, in quel caso non ci sarebbe stata alleanza"". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 1 March 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Provinciali 2023, l'Udc per il Fugatti-bis. Dopo non aver piazzato consiglieri 5 anni fa chiede una modifica a legge elettorale per attenuare premio di maggioranza". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 8 February 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "In Trentino il centrodestra si compatta: anche Fratelli d'Italia sosterrà Fugatti presidente". Alto Adige (in Italian). 28 July 2023. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
^ "Dagli autonomisti alla sinistra, al tavolo di coalizione ci sono tutti (ma non si parla di nomi)". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 12 January 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Das Spitzenduo". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 16 January 2023.
^ "Bianchi wird Lega-Spitzenkandidat". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). August 2023.
^ "Schluss mit einem Südtirol im Standby". V–G–V (in German). 4 April 2023.
^ "Freiheitliche: Pläne für die Landtagswahlen". RaiNews (in German). 5 February 2023.
^ "Sven Knoll Landeshauptmann-Kandidat der Süd-Tiroler Freiheit". STF (in German). 16 May 2023.
^ "„Lega wird nicht wahrgenommen"". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 11 April 2023.
^ "Jetzt spricht Thomas Widmann: Sein Plan für die Landtagswahl". Südtirol Online (in German). 26 July 2023.
^ "Die No-Vax-Fraktion". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 21 January 2023.
^ "Sie will Südtirols Landeshauptfrau werden". Unsertirol.com (in German). 19 June 2023.
^ "Wirth Anderlan tritt mit eigener Liste zur Wahl an: "Enzian wollte mich nicht"". RaiNews (in German). 18 July 2023.
^ "Der ehemalige Lega-Mann Maturi präsentiert neue Partei". RaiNews (in German). 2 March 2023.

^ ^a ^b incl. PATT
^ incl. FdI
^ ^a ^b ^c withdrew

[Date-1] "SVP-Leitung ernennt Arno Kompatscher zum Spitzenkandidaten". Südtirol News (in German). 28 February 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[2] "Progetto Trentino e le elezioni, appoggio al Patt e alla Svp, Grisenti: «L'unica scelta per l'autonomia»". ladige.it (in Italian). 19 August 2022. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[3] "Fratelli d'Italia sfida Fugatti e lancia Francesca Gerosa come candidata presidente della Provincia". ladige.it (in Italian). 12 January 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[4] "Accordo Patt-Lega: c'è la fumata bianca. Marchiori: "Gerosa presidente con Fdi? Mai presa in considerazione, in quel caso non ci sarebbe stata alleanza"". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 1 March 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[5] "Provinciali 2023, l'Udc per il Fugatti-bis. Dopo non aver piazzato consiglieri 5 anni fa chiede una modifica a legge elettorale per attenuare premio di maggioranza". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 8 February 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[6] "In Trentino il centrodestra si compatta: anche Fratelli d'Italia sosterrà Fugatti presidente". Alto Adige (in Italian). 28 July 2023. Retrieved 30 July 2023.

[7] "Dagli autonomisti alla sinistra, al tavolo di coalizione ci sono tutti (ma non si parla di nomi)". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 12 January 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[11] "Das Spitzenduo". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 16 January 2023.

[12] "Bianchi wird Lega-Spitzenkandidat". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). August 2023.

[13] "Schluss mit einem Südtirol im Standby". V–G–V (in German). 4 April 2023.

[14] "Freiheitliche: Pläne für die Landtagswahlen". RaiNews (in German). 5 February 2023.

[15] "Sven Knoll Landeshauptmann-Kandidat der Süd-Tiroler Freiheit". STF (in German). 16 May 2023.

[16] "„Lega wird nicht wahrgenommen"". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 11 April 2023.

[17] "Jetzt spricht Thomas Widmann: Sein Plan für die Landtagswahl". Südtirol Online (in German). 26 July 2023.

[18] "Die No-Vax-Fraktion". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 21 January 2023.

[19] "Sie will Südtirols Landeshauptfrau werden". Unsertirol.com (in German). 19 June 2023.

[20] "Wirth Anderlan tritt mit eigener Liste zur Wahl an: "Enzian wollte mich nicht"". RaiNews (in German). 18 July 2023.

[21] "Der ehemalige Lega-Mann Maturi präsentiert neue Partei". RaiNews (in German). 2 March 2023.

[PATT-8] . PATT

[9] . FdI

[wd-10] withdrew

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@@ Line 71: / Line 71: @@
 | party8 = Democratic Party (Italy) | leader8 = Sandro Repetto
      | percentage8 = 3.5 | seats8 = 1 | last_election8 = 1
-| party9 = Für Südtiol mit Widmann | color9 = #cccccc | leader9 = Thomas Widmann
+| party9 = Für Südtirol mit Widmann | color9 = #35383F | leader9 = Thomas Widmann
      | percentage9 = 3.4  | seats9 = 1 | last_election9 = 1
 | party10 = League | color10 = {{party color|Lega Nord}} | leader10 = Christian Bianchi
      | percentage10 =  3.0 | seats10 = 1 | last_election10 = 4
-| party11 = La Civica | color11 = #cccccc | leader11 = Emanuela Albieri
+| party11 = La Civica | color11 = #ECA13C | leader11 = Emanuela Albieri
      | percentage11 =  2.6 | seats11 = 1 | last_election11 = New
-| party12 = Vita | color12 = #cccccc | leader12 = Renate Holzeisen
+| party12 = Vita | color12 = #014DB5 | leader12 = Renate Holzeisen
      | percentage12 =  2.6 | seats12 = 1 | last_election12 = New
 | map =

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