:Do you ever read more than the headlines? Please check the [[Talk:Global warming/FAQ|FAQ]] for Pluto and Jupiter. Read page two of the NatGeo article on Mars. And don't take your science from the Telegraph. Not allowing general discussion of a topic is a standing Wikipedia policy, not something we invented for this article. See [[WP:FORUM]] and [[WP:TPG]]. --[[User:Stephan Schulz|Stephan Schulz]] ([[User talk:Stephan Schulz|talk]]) 02:20, 6 March 2008 (UTC)
:Do you ever read more than the headlines? Please check the [[Talk:Global warming/FAQ|FAQ]] for Pluto and Jupiter. Read page two of the NatGeo article on Mars. And don't take your science from the Telegraph. Not allowing general discussion of a topic is a standing Wikipedia policy, not something we invented for this article. See [[WP:FORUM]] and [[WP:TPG]]. --[[User:Stephan Schulz|Stephan Schulz]] ([[User talk:Stephan Schulz|talk]]) 02:20, 6 March 2008 (UTC)
::Well, it looks like the FAQ has all the arguments to shoot down dissention all lined up like a pretty little firing squad... just like a kid who has all the answers. "Do you ever read more than the headlines?" You don't have to be an elitist snobby-assed jerk. I'm not trying to have "general discussion" (which is conventiently identified when it goes against YOUR point of view). I'm adding a different angle at looking at the issue I feel is credible enough to add to the article. Climate change is happening on other planets. I just don't understand why that is so far away from the idea of a global warming. Planetary Warming and Global Warming have nothing to do with each other? Like I said, "Global Warming" should entail ANY warming on ANY planet REGARDLESS of the causes![[Special:Contributions/66.255.105.3|66.255.105.3]] ([[User talk:66.255.105.3|talk]]) 02:48, 6 March 2008 (UTC)
Revision as of 02:48, 6 March 2008
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How do I update the global temperature graph with the 2007 figures?
It is now the end of January and the 2007 global temperature figures have been out some time, yet the graph clearly hasn't been updated. Since the resident editors don't seem to be that keen to inform the public of the latest figure, can someone tell me how I can edit the image to add the 2007 result? 88.109.191.89 (talk) 10:05, 29 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
The easiest way is to simply reproduce a new version of the graph. The data is available from the same source that is cited on the image page, and Gnuplot and Inkscape generally make for a good combination for graph production that conforms to the general style used here (though, of course, it is helpful to do the extra work to be as close to the style of the current graph as possible). -- Leland McInnes (talk) 14:12, 29 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Leland, as you suggested I have updated the graph. I could not find the average figures in the Hadly dataset and not knowing what kind of average they were based on I have simply removed the average line. Indeed, I really can't see why it is necessary because it is fairly obvious what the trend is without overlaying the actual data with a trend that is not in the original figures.Bugsy (talk) 16:00, 8 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
You also have a typo in the legend, and apparently measure temperature in coulomb. The average is useful because it illustrates the difference between climate and weather, and abstracts from high-frequency random noise. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:14, 8 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Yes, a five year average would be good. "Anomoly (C)" should be "Anomaly (°C)", as Dr. Schulz points out. Also, to disambiguate, if you want to say "1960-91", you should probably have "wrt 1960-91" (that is, "with respect to"). I also think the years on the x-axis should be moved below the plots on the graph. If I wanted to be really picky, I'd say "Global Temperature" should be centered. ~ UBeR (talk) 17:27, 8 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Centring "Global temperature" and (°C) I can do. Dropping the x-axis isn't something that is immediately obvious in the graph package. I tried adding an average but not only isn't it in the right place (it all gets delayed), not only am I unhappy to add something that isn't part of the Hadly data, but worse it just seems to hide the actual yearly figures. Bugsy (talk) 18:59, 8 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I've tried moving the axis and the package insists on putting the axis along the zero line - which thinking about it is probably where it ought to be. Afterall I was always taught to put the axis along the zero line and presumably the graph package follows the best practice. Bugsy (talk) 19:13, 8 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
What graph package are you using? You really should put the x-axis labels at the bottom, and that should be easy to do any any decent graph package (once again, I highly recommend gnuplot; there's a small learning curve but the results are excellent). Also it would be best to provide the plot in SVG format rather than PNG if at all possible. SVG is definitely preferred, and allows other people to more easily edit/update details like the Anomaly (°C)" typo, centering the title, etc. If I get some time (which I hopefully will have this weekend) I will see if I can whip something up in gnuplot myself. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 19:32, 8 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I would also suggest to revert the image (on the image page) to the last version by Cristan (which is a mechanical translation of the original by User: Dragons flight) and to reupload the current image (or an improved version) under a new name. Currently, the legend is completely wrong - this image is not prepared by Robert A. Rohde, and licensing might be problematic (if licensing information is taken from the image page, the current image will be misattributed). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 20:51, 8 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Okay, I spent a little time on this, and have created two new graphs with the most recent data, displayed on the right. The first is a simple recreation (as close as I can easily manage) of Robert Rhode's wonderful original; the second makes use of the uncertainty data now included in HadCRUT3 to provide a 95% confidence interval. I'll leave it to the regulars here which is the preferable option to go with. Note that I included the gnuplot script used to create the graphs on the image page, so creating consistent updated versions should be easy in the future. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 19:24, 9 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Very good! I was about to do the same (and came close to the first one). What have you done for the average at the boundaries? I was trying to just use the HadCrut 21-point smoothed curve they provide on the web page. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:40, 9 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I simply didn't calculate averages at the boundaries, which is a cheap, but effective solution. I would provide the moving average code, but it's something I hacked up a while ago in perl for such data munging and simpyl re-edit to fit needs as they arise; I would be embarrased to publish what is quite ugly code. As for the binomial smoothed version: I was thinking of using that too. On the other hand, the five year (moving) average has the virtue of being simple and easily understood by the average reader. In this case I opted for simplicity. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 20:50, 9 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Kudos for all that work (I especially like the second graph), but it leads me to ask two questions: 1) Why not use NASA's updated graphs instead since NASA is a government agency? and; 2) How does this graphing not fall prey to WP:SYN? I know the idea is to come up with GFDL compliant images in place of images with usage strings attached, but since you need to take raw data, feed it into a plotting program, do some curve smoothing and such, doesn't this seem WP:ORish a little bit, even if the final result corresponds to other graphs? The main reason I'm asking is that I get chided a lot on WP:OR stuff, especially in regards to using primary sources, even when the point is seemingly very self-evident and obvious. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 19:53, 10 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Well that's what I'm getting at, you're taking the raw hadcrut3 data, feeding it into some graphing program, setting your axes and whatnot, and perhaps doing a little curve smoothing as well. I'm assuming that this is fine and dandy with the Wikipedia powers that be, but I am wondering if it's the general policy that if you want to create an image based on some sort of raw data that everyone has access to, then you have a green light as long as it's a process replicatable by anyone. This may not be the best place to ask this, but....I'm just kind of wondering. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 21:57, 10 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I'm not a Wikipdia power (or if, a very small one). But for me, it's not the replicability, but the straightforwardness that makes it acceptable. You are not supposed to introduce original ideas. We had a case of some user trying to extrapolate damage figures by fitting a function. That's not acceptable. But simply plotting data in a straightforward way is ok, at least with me. If you have something in mind, why not discuss the concrete case? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:55, 10 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Agree plotting data gathered from reliable sources is not WP:OR, even under the most liberal interpretations, per original image policies. I did sort of like it better without the uncertainties though (which was what I thought the purpose of creating separate graphs was for). ~ UBeR (talk) 23:44, 10 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I've always worked on the principle that any straightforwrd data manipulation is fine. As to the uncertainties: I decided to generate uncertainties for the 5 year average, and found that the presentation ultimately worked well enough that I decided to just update the original. Personally I find that (given the nature of how it is displayed) the uncertainties provide significant extra information with a minimal amount of noise. Fear not, however; if people feel strongly about it we can revert the image and image page, and put the newer version elsewhere. I guess if you feel really strongly you can do this yourself right now. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 00:05, 11 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Well since it is minimal trouble, and on reflection I do see some value is dismbiguating them as long as someone cares, I've reverted the old one, and placed the newer one under a different name (see above, now with 3 graphs). I'll leave final decisions to those interested enough to argue, but will put a tenative vote for the alternate (newer) version. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 01:47, 11 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I personally think Leland McInnes's charts are fine, and they seem to be in keeping with the Global Warming Art project. I was only wondering if it's generally allowable to take any free, publicly available data set, especially if it's supplied by a US government organization, and create a graph with it that can be used in Wikipedia articles if applicable. Like I said, this may not be the best place to ask, but.... -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 16:25, 11 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
as those discussing this subject should be well aware, the manner of graphing a data set is not necessarily a routine operation free from possibilities of bias. I can perhaps see using an extended data set to construct a new graph along the exact same lines as those already published elsewhere, if everyone here agree on the objectivity. Anything beyond that is OR. DGG (talk) 18:01, 11 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Pretty much anything other than direct quotes can be interpreted as OR or SYN if you contort, squint, and maintain an absolutely literal interpretation of the "rules". In practice I think it is reasonable to simply apply a little common sense, and not worry about graphs from publicly available data as OR unless there's anything particularly out of the ordinary about it above and beyond a straightforward representation of the data. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 19:51, 11 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
You know, I do still exist, even though I am less active and I did stop watching this page. I have been planning to update myself, but A) I've been busy, and B) it's not uncommon to see revisions in February due to station data that is not immediately available (only about 20% of stations report to the climatology network in near realtime), so I try not to update in January anyway.
That said, what Leland has done is mostly okay. However, I don't understand where the 5-year error bars come from and that should be checked (i.e. statistical error in an average is smaller than the average of the error).
Also, if you are copying my design (which obviously is the starting point for your layout/coloring), then I would expect a more explicit reference, i.e. a statement like "Based on a design by Robert A. Rohde". Lastly, since this is a derivative design, the license ought to be GFDL based on the license on the original. Dragons flight (talk) 21:28, 11 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
My apologies; I hadn't seen you around here. If you have a proper update in the works obviously that is going to be better (and more consistent with all the other figures), so I'll gladly defer to you. Sorry about the attribution issues; you're quite right. I'll remedy that now. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 22:32, 11 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Please see this U.S. Senate Minority Report from Dec. 2007 of over 400 Scientists that either directly disagree or have strong concerns with the notion of a "consensus" of scientiest. http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report Many of these scientists are part of the IPCC, have published work, are PHDs etc. I have posted other links in the past to other data which (conveniently) is wiped out by "proponents" of man-made global warming.
I request that you change the sentence "While individual scientists have voiced disagreement with some findings of the IPCC,[8] the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agree with the IPCC's main conclusions.[9][10]" to something more along the lines of "While many (or the majority if you can indeed actually prove so) scientists agree with the IPCC's main conclusions hundreds of scientists dispute man-induced global warming".
Now...that's from a reliable source, obviously contradicts the articles select "individuals" claim (although proponents of man-made GW love to portray everyone in the world agreeing with the evil humans raising the earth's temperature....put simply, they don't, and it's not just a select "few" (i.e. 3 people or thereabouts which is very misleading). — Preceding unsigned comment added by 65.169.222.98 (talk • contribs)
Inhofe's site is inherently not a reliable source on anything but his opinion, many of the people on the list are not scientists, and many of the scientists on the list do indeed agree with the IPCC. The existing statement, on the other hand, is sourced to one of the foremost scientific academies in the world. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:33, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I'm not sure what "inhofe's" site is....it's a U.S. Government Senate Report for the Environmental & Public Works....that's not "credible". Did you bother to read what many of those "non" scientists said (the majority of which are PHDs in science/climate fields, work/worked for the IPCC, were authors etc....they don't count eh?).
If you can't prove that the listed 400-500+ scientists in public-forum open letters to the Secretary General of the United Nations and U.S. Government Senate Reports are false I expect either the sentence to be adjusted or for an additional sentence or two to be added indicating at the very minimum that there is not a consensus in "man-made" global warming being the cause for any perceived or real, short-or long-term related trending in either the earth warming or cooling. Anything less is simply....well...fill in the ____________ Thanks! Regards, — Preceding unsigned comment added by 65.169.222.98 (talk • contribs)
And yes, rest assured that many of the 100 are also on the list of 400 - and again many of them are not remotely climate scientists. In the first few there are already several social scientists, there is the famous Lord Lawson of Blaby, and there are many mechanical engineers, biologists, and physicists from obviously unrelated fields. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 20:14, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
So because Senator Inhofe is a strong critic of global warming, you are willing to dismiss his report and quotes of 400+ scientists (is that the "company") he gathered and produced? Not sure I follow that logic completely I guess other then wishing to dispense with 400+ scientists who question the validity of man-induced global warming and the "consensus" that is repeatedly purported to the mass public, thereby shielding the mass public from opposing viewpoints which this article does quite nicely. As I'm not a registered user on Wiki, my sig is short, so sorry. Regards, — Preceding unsigned comment added by 65.169.222.98 (talk • contribs)
:So because Senator Inhofe is a strong critic of global warming, you are willing to dismiss his report "Critic" implies he knows what he's talking about. He does not. He's a crackpot who takes *a lot* of money from the oil industry. His comments (that global warming is a hoax created by the weather channel; that the EPA and climitologists are nazis; that the satellite record shows there is no warming; that the scientists agree with him) are so disconnected from reality that they should come with a warning label. As for the "scientists" he points out, as Stephan Schulz has already said - many of them are not scientists, virtually none of them are climate scientists, and most of them agree with the IPCC position. The fact is, the reliable sources cited in this article show that global warming is real, mostly man-made, and that the consensus of the legitimate scientific community - that is to say, excluding oil-funded shills like Tim Ball and Richard Lindzen - believe this is the case. Raul654 (talk) 20:21, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
The below are the first 20 people listed in the Senate Report. If these people aren't scientists in a related climate field...please point me in the direction of someone that would "qualify" as a "climatologist". From what I can see...it's a venerable list of who's who for climate science. As far as Inhofe or whover he is, even if he does spout of stuff he doesn't know...that is independent of 400+ actual scientists (first 20 below) giving their own opinions/quotes which are in fact more then qualified to give their own assessment. Don't confuse the two.
Atmospheric scientist Dr. Nathan Paldor, Professor of Dynamical Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has authored almost 70 peer-reviewed studies and won several awards.
Dr. Denis G. Rancourt, Professor of Physics and an Environmental Science researcher at the University of Ottawa
Czech-born U.S. climatologist Dr. George Kukla, a research scientist with the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University
One of India's leading geologists, B.P. Radhakrishna, President of the Geological Society of India
Climatologist Dr. John Maunder, past president of the Commission for Climatology who has spent over 50 years in the "weather business" all around the globe, and who has written four books on weather and climate
Glaciologist Nikolai Osokin of the Institute of Geography and member of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Atmospheric Physicist Dr. Garth W. Paltridge, an Emeritus Professor from University of Tasmania, is another prominent skeptic. Paltridge who was a Chief Research Scientist with the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research before taking up positions in 1990 as Director of the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies at the University of Tasmania and as CEO of the Antarctic Cooperative Research Center.
Climate Scientist Dr. Ben Herman, past director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and former Head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona is a member of both the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth’s Executive Committee and the Committee on Global Change.
Prof. Francis Massen of the Physics Laboratory in Luxemburg and the leader of a meteorological station
Chief Meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart of the MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center in Sao Leopoldo - Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil
Ocean researcher Dr. John T. Everett, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) senior manager and UN IPCC lead author and reviewer, who led work on five impact analyses for the IPCC including Fisheries, Polar Regions, Oceans and Coastal Zones. Everett, who is also project manager for the UN Atlas of the Oceans, received an award while at NOAA for "accomplishments in assessing the impacts of climate change on global oceans and fisheries."
Physicist Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the former director of both University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center who has twice been named in "1000 Most Cited Scientists," released a scientific study of the Arctic on March 2007
Physicist Dr. Gerhard Gerlich, of the Institute of Mathematical Physics at the Technical University Carolo-Wilhelmina in Braunschweig in Germany, and Dr. Ralf D. Tscheuschner co-authored a July 7, 2007 paper titled "Falsification of the Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within the Frame of Physics."
Geologist/Geochemist Dr. Tom V. Segalstad, a professor and head of the Geological Museum at the University of Oslo and formerly an expert reviewer with the UN IPCC
Geologist Dr. David Kear, the former director of geological survey at the Department of Science and Industrial Research in New Zealand
Solar Physicist and Climatologist Douglas V. Hoyt, who coauthored the book The Role of the Sun in Climate Change, and has worked at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), h
Dr. Boris Winterhalter, retired Senior Marine Researcher of the Geological Survey of Finland and former professor of marine geology at University of Helsinki,
Particle Physicist Jasper Kirkby, a research scientist at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research
Solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev, of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Physics Professor Emeritus Dr. Howard Hayden of the University of Connecticut and author of "The Solar Fraud: Why Solar Energy Won't Run the World,"
Interesting. And who's verified any of that? Anyone? I'm supposed to believe a "blog" over a submitted Senate report...? If I used that as evidence to refute anything on this page, I'd have 10,000 "blog" entries that would utterly refute everything on GW, lol, and you would laugh at me for even listing them. Even if true, it doesn't discredit their scholarly activities, experiences etc. Don't forget, likewise for anyone not being funded by any oil or energy companies and instead receives funding from governments or pro-activist organizations their findings, facts and figures would be just as construed as what you're indicating of critics of man-made warming. After all...research into GW and the effects, government policies etc. made produces TRILLIONS in revenue for either proponents of man-mad GW or those who offer solutions to it. But I guess it's easy to point to some as being funded by oil companies while ignoring all the other research funding is stemmed from the hysteria created by "man-made" GW or those who seek to profit off of selling that fear to the public. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 65.169.222.98 (talk • contribs)
Although I'm not going to waste my time trying to run through the list of 400 people...I will however critique that "blog" and their research. They state:
84 People have taken money or been involved with "industry"...
--guess none of these people matter? Can we throw out most of the 2,500 IPCC scientists who put a roof over their head by accepting money for their jobs & research by pro-anthro-GW groups/governments? If that's "discrediting"...well..let's just say that argument would throw out any scientist that support's Anthro-GW
49 are retired
--oh yeah....these pepole are the dumbest...after spending a lifetime in their areas of science they turn to absolute mush and forget everything the day they retire....seriously....that's considered "discrediting", lol.
44 are TV Weatherman
--these people while may not be involved in research directly..most of them got degrees in meterology or some other climate science and apparently like GW and probably keep up with it as an active hobby. 44 TV weather people? Out of how many thousands upon thousands are there? Yeah...these probably aren't the "GW geeks" that enjoy the GW area of science.
70 of Inhofe's Global Warming Deniers Have no Climate Background?
Dr. John W. Brosnahan, develops remote-sensing instruments for atmospheric science.
--(yep...what does he know about what how his instruments work, what their recordings are, or how their recordings are affected by weather...an idiot I say...)
Dr. Reid Bryson, the founding chairman of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Wisconsin (now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences). Was one of the people who thought we were facing global cooling in the 70's.
-- (and people like you probably loved him in the 70's...yep, looks like an unqualified auto-mechanic to me)
Dr. David Douglass, Professor of Physics of the University of Rochester.
-- (Physics? definitely not related at all to weather, science or the pleathorea of equations used in the modeling techniques which try to predict the future climate without even having an understanding of the largest impactors to climate, as stated by IPCC, in regards to water vapor etc. Yeah...I'm sure this guy moonlights at Wendy's on Tues. night for family night wearing a clown suit)
Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington University. Retired.
--- (retired?!!! what is wrong with him! After spending his entire life analyzing geology, rock formations, striata and information gleaned from sediementary rocks he must have absolutely no idea what a "core" sample is. Whew..glad that's cleared up, maybe he can make me a Big Mac at the "BK" Lounge this guy is so unqualified)
20. Gerhard Gerlich, professor for Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Institut für Mathematische Physik der TU Braunschweig, Germany.
---(just another smart guy that isn't smart enough to understand how in the world pro-anthro-GW proponents justify their modeling techniques I'm sure)
--(just another smart guy that isn't smart enough to understand how in the world pro-anthro-GW proponents justify their modeling techniques I'm sure)
Wibjorn Karlen, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden. Connected to industry-funded groups.
--- ( a professor in Geogrpahy Geology....I'm sure "climate" has never helped shaped land masses, rising or sinking of islands etc. This person might as well be working at waffle house making the statement they make)
40. Arthur E. Lemay, a renowned computer systems specialist. Has no discernable climate science experience.
--- (This is probably the guy that wrote up your modelling program you have so much faith in...! lol).
51. Dr. Daniel W. Miles, a former professor of physics who earned his PhD from the University of Utah.
-- (just another wannabe smart guy)
53. Dr. Patrick Moore, a Greenpeace founding member turned industry consultant and promoter of nuclear energy.
--- (now this is interesting...someone "saw the light"... :)
64. Dr. G. Cornelis van Kooten, professor and Canada Research Chair in environmental studies and climate change, Dept. of Economics, University of Victoria. Economist, with no discernable climate or earth science experience.
--- (here's another one with, i'm sure, has no clue whatsoever about climate. I wonder what counts as experience to this guy? ice-fishing on the artic for 3 years and publishing 20 papers?)
So....out of the 247 people they tried to discredit....I'm willing to maybe give them 20 people out of the 400. This doesn't "debunk" anything.
". After all...research into GW and the effects, government policies etc. made produces TRILLIONS in revenue for either proponents of man-mad GW or those who offer solutions to it." - and with that bit of conspiracy theory idiocy, I'm done with this thread. It's not worth wasting my time to try to educate someone whose that far gone. The article will remain as-is. Raul654 (talk) 22:03, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
You're pathetic Raul. You just, in return, called yourself an idiot because you believe and just stated the exact same thing hinting at conspiracy theories about critics of GW who get paid by the oil and energy industries. A hypocrite who has yet to come back and reply with anything meaninful or of substance. Educate? I think you are the one that needs it, sir. This debate was over before it started with your lack of knowledge or ability to properly defend your position other then say "nah nah nah nah nah....the sentence won't change". Congrats. I'm blown away by your effort and attention to detail and educational points you have made, or rather the lack thereof. Good day to you. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 65.169.222.98 (talk • contribs)
Where is the Controversy/Criticism Section?
I just read a book called "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming". Excellent book and it pointed out some huge problems with the GW theory. Now I come here and see that there is no controversy or criticism section. What gives with that? There are also numerous documentaries that poke glaring holes in the theory. I find it strange that a controversy section is missing. JettaMann (talk) 03:54, 31 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Criticism sections are discouraged. All notable scientific criticism (not: there is not very much of it) is integrated into the main narrative. You might also be interested in global warming controversy, which is indeed linked from here. "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming" is not an excellent book, but a bad hatchet job - indeed, it has one word to much in the title. "Numerous documentaries" are not reliable sources - if you check this article, you will find that we try to rely on the very best sources only, i.e. peer-reviewed scientific articles. It's sad that you have been lied to. Don't fall for it. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:40, 31 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Stephan, there are serious problems. Namely, what is the fuss about? Warming in the past has always been a benefit to life, not antithetical to life! Most of the doomsday scenarios of "Inconvenient Truth" have been thoroughly discredited *by scientists* that the book names and references. There are a hundred other very well documented problems. So your dismissal of these is thoroughly laughable. JettaMann (talk) 18:33, 9 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
There's a "social and political debate" section which lists global warming controversy as a main article. The issue is that a long time ago someone decided this page should focus on the science of global warming rather than the subject in general (it devotes barely a passing mention to the politics, controversy, etc). Perhaps in a perfect world there would be a Science of global warming page and this one would serve as an overview of the topic as a whole, but I don't plan on pushing for that because it's a fight I know I won't win. Oren0 (talk) 07:58, 31 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
The book you read opens the debate for some quite interesting points which most Kyoto supporters cannot afford to admit that they're even worthy of discussion. But in my view, the problem is not mostly with the science itself; it's rather with the scientific process. Cure the process and the science will change in some regards. Not sure, though, that it really should be discussed at lenght in this article. --Childhood's End (talk) 15:04, 31 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
The temperature of the Earth has always been changing over millenia and even centuries and the same is there with the size of the polar ice caps, it is just one of those natural things.
Alexthegreatest (talk) 20:29, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
You will never see anything related to "controversy" here because according to those who run this page, Global Warming is not only in fact real, but caused by "man". Hence, contrary ideas will be given next to no weight whatsover, if any at all. That might spoil the party.
"The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases warm a planet's lower and surface."
to this:
"The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface."
According to official met office figures, Jan 2008 was the coldest year since February 1994 being only 0.037°C warmer than the 1960-91 average. Temperatures peaked in February 1998 at 0.749 above this average and have remained relatively stable with a downward trend since the beginning of the 21st century. See:
graph —Preceding unsigned comment added by 88.109.73.125 (talk) 13:25, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
So Raymond, how much do global temperatures have to drop to mention it in the article? Oh, and I've still to find any bookmaker who is taking bets on global warming. Apparently no climatologists are actually willing to put their money where their mouth is. So, Raymond perhaps you are willing to back your words, what odds would you give for 2008 being warmer than 1998 average? Bugsy (talk) 14:41, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Raymond, weather is something that is difficult to predict and gets cooler when you don't want it to, climate is something that is so easy to predict that there is an "overwhelming scientific consensus" that it will not get cooler. Bugsy (talk) 14:52, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Let me ask a really stupid question, If next month were to be the coldest month since reliable temperature recording began, would it warrant a mention in the article? Or is even that too little? Bugsy (talk) 16:25, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Raymond, I'll stop making fun of you, when you answer the simple question. How much does the climate have to cool before you will allow any changes to the article? Just tell me and then I'll know how long I have to wait before we can bring some honesty back to the article. 88.109.73.125 (talk) 18:23, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
But it has already been published in a reliable source, THE MET OFFICE. Are you saying I can get rid of the statement global warming is the warming in recent decades now? 88.109.73.125 (talk) 18:30, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Basic recreationYou are funny Bozmo. As you know the met office have on their site Hadcrut3 which is the data used on the main graph on the article. I really can't see why you are so fussed, afterall the climate is going to heat and there never will be a time when I can change the text to reflect cooling. So, why not humour me and give me a criteria which you would accept for changing it. How far has the attached graph got to go down? Would you accept a monthly, yearly, 5 yearly, decade, century average which has gone down and below what figure. It's not a difficult question is it? Bugsy (talk) 20:03, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
What the Met Office was discussing was a single month's record. We're talking about trends. A trend becomes relevant, i.e. notable, when it appears in reliable sources, for the purposes of this article. ~ UBeR (talk) 21:05, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Stop making me laugh Uber, I broke my ribs a while back and it hurts! As you well know the met office is a reliable source, and Wikipedia allows people to make simple observations like "it is not warming" and then adjust the article accordingly. Stop trying to amuse me and take this seriously, how much does the temperature have to drop before you will accept a revision of e.g. the phrase "recent global warming"? Bugsy (talk) 21:24, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Wikipedia does not allow people to make "simple" observations of this sort. See WP:SYN. "January was cold" and therefore "it is not warming" is OR synthesis. (It's also absurd on its face, but hey.) Marskell (talk) 21:30, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Why all this fuss if it's getting warming? Now don't tell me that if January is the coldest month in 14 years according to reliable web sites like the met office, that one is not allowed to say "Jan is the coldest month in 14 years", unless some web site says: "Jan is the coldest month in 14 years". If this is the standard of proof you are demanding, then I certainly will apply it to the article with a liberal brush. Now, I take it that no one is against me including the statement "Jan was the coldest month in 14 years", if by chance it happens to be publihsed in a newspaper? Bugsy (talk) 21:37, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
You certainly are allowed to say that. But not here. Putting that factoid in global warming would be to suggest that this month's record somehow falsifies global warming, which it doesn't. You see, you're creating a context of your own--your taking the Met Office's results out of context. They weren't using this data to argue against global warming so neither should you (lest you violate WP:SYN). ~ UBeR (talk) 21:45, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
This is an article about global warming isn't it? The basis of the article must be the scientic evidence which I would ahve thought speaks for itself. Are you saying that you would not allow the factual statement global temperatures peaked in February 1998, or would you prefer to "Global temperatures peaked in 1998", or are you insisting that I write "Global temperatures peak in the period 1998-2007", or are you going to insist that it is a decade "global warming peaked in the first decade of the 21st century", or are you seriously saying you would never allow that statement into the article no matter how patently obvious it is to anyone with an ounce of scientific knowledge that the temperatures had gone down. Think about it Uber, you can block some statements some of the time, but you can't block all statements all the time! Bugsy (talk) 15:23, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Yeah, you find a reliable source that (explicitly) makes that claim (because it was cold in January, global warming doesn't exist), and I might listen to you. Until then, ta ta. ~ UBeR (talk) 17:28, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Yeah, just to reiterate what Marskell just said, you're not allowed to create your own context out of material from a RS, which the MO is. However, the Met Office is not saying that because it was cold last month that global warming has been negated. That's your argument--not theirs. That's inappropriate synthesis, especially because it's taking information out of context. ~ UBeR (talk) 21:35, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
(edit conflict)I think scientists expect these years to be cooler than the ones a decade back due to, among other things, the la nina. I doubt this "cooling" warrants mention because its a short period in a much longer trend and the observations do not contradict expectations. The question is not about how much cooler it needs to get, its about timeframes. If the temperature were to drop severely very fast you might want to start writing in the apocalypse pages. If the temperature drops very modestly per year for the next 50 years than you come here (with a reliable source, to avoid OR). Wow, I'll be 73... Brusegadi (talk) 16:45, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
What's the big problem here? It's only a la nina. Although global warming might trump la nina, it doesn't mean it's impossible for occasional coolings over a short period of time. After all, even as the global temperature rises, there's going to be ups and downs in global temperature over short periods of time. If it wasn't happening, it would be the coldest in longer time. Remember global warming can cause cooling periods too. This does not disprove global warming. It also does not prove that global warming either is or isn't resposinible. Thanks. ~AH1(TCU)18:44, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Where does the line between Climate change and weather change get drawn? It's not strictly a matter of time frames of the observations but rather a matter of time frame over which the forcing expected to be behind the change can operate right? If the polar regions were painted black in some way, we could speak of an immediate climate change even though climate is observed over long time scales because the darkening could in theory maintain a long term change right? But if the darkening were almost immediately reversed there never would have been any climate change? Or if somehow the atmospheric CO2 were catastrophically quadrupled in a single day we could describe the resulting observed warming as climate change even the very next day but if all the CO2 were some how rapidly sequestered the day after that we still would have observed a "brief" climate change right? or is a "brief" climate change impossible by definition? Is it impossible for the climate to rapidly change no matter what by definition?
and yes I understand that in no way does any of this relate to the fact that we can't use an unexplained observed short term change to infer a climate change.Zebulin (talk) 18:56, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
That doesn't answer my question. I know weather averages of 30 years or more are used in describing climate but I'm wondering if discrete rapid events with long term effects can be regarded as producing a climate change over much shorter periods if it is clear the event would otherwise have had long term consequences for the climate. Like my example of a rapid and very dramatic change in atmospheric CO2. Surely we wouldn't claim the climate was unchanged until 30 years later? Put another way, is the Tuscan weather service quote "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get." a better description of the distinction between weather and climate than the 30 years of observation standard? Zebulin (talk) 19:08, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
...how much do global temperatures have to drop to mention it in the article?
Temperatures have to drop by such a large amount that it becomes relevant to the science of global warming. When that happens we'll see this mentioned in peer reviewed articles, which is the criterium for inclusion in wikipedia. Count Iblis (talk) 19:44, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I'll join one part of the chorus re "how long of drop before it's mentioned," "what's the dividing line between weather and climate," etc. These are not questions we answer on this talk page. They are answered by reliable, scientific sources, if and when they start mentioning them. Obviously, one month is irrelevant. And two and three. My own opinion is that decadal tracking is the meaningful threshold, because the sunspot cycle is about a decade long. But that's just my own opinion, and it's irrelevant—only the sources are relevant. Marskell (talk) 20:39, 20 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Marskell, that's the first helpful comment I've seen. So let us suppose that the last decade shows cooling on average. Can I then remove the phrase "warming in recent years" and replace it with "warming up until the last decade" or something similar? Bugsy (talk) 14:43, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
My own opinion is that the first sentence should read "Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans after the beginning of the industrial era and its projected continuation." This would eliminate any need to talk about a few cooler years here and there. I'm sure we'll have a decade that was a little cooler than the last in this century (perhaps this one). It's perfectly possible the Sun enters something like a Maunder Minimum and we have a few cooler decades. But anthropogenic climate change is a "self-evident mechanism". A period of cooling does not by itself disprove the trend. Marskell (talk) 16:43, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
If you are going to start mentioning science, can I remind you Marskell, that science is on the side of the sceptic, and it is not up to the sceptic to prove that there is not a link between CO2, it is up to you to prove there is, but that is not reflected in the article! 21:40, 20 February 2008 (UTC) —Preceding unsigned comment added by Isonomia (talk • contribs)
Ummm, this stuff was already covered recently. Short term temperature trends, even those lasting several years, don't mean a whole lot when measuring a planetary wide phenomenon like global warming. Again, compare this "short term" NASA graph to this long term NASA graph. Again, see the difference? -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 13:27, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I think the consensus is developing that if a decade shows average trend which is negative then we have to drop the phrase global warming "in recent decades". To save hassles when it happens what would be the appropriate form of words? Bugsy (talk) 14:52, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
To save hassles when it happens too what is the appropriate form of words when global warming is reduced from reflection off the wings of flying pigs? --BozMotalk15:45, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I think the phrasing would be "Anecdotal evidence suggests the wings of flying pigs contribute a net cooling effect and therefore there is no global warming. It was also really cold in Wagga Wagga last night. [1]" Marskell (talk) 16:02, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Marskell - I liked that one! I have not heard anyone against my proposal that the criteria for accepting the end of global warming is that the average trend of Hadcrut3 monthly figures should be negative in a period of 120months and if I understand wikipedia, if no one disagrees, then it becomes official policy for the article, and when it does happen I can change the "global warming in recent decades" to "Global warming was the warming experienced up until 1998". Bugsy (talk) 16:40, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Bugsy, first, see my reply above. When I said decadal tracking is a logical threshold, I did not mean one decade answers the question; you need multiple data points, obviously, as Callmebc has provided.long term NASA graph Second, your misunderstanding what's been said about WP:SYN. We do not decide on the criteria. Sources do. We have absolutely no business talking about 120 mos. Marskell (talk) 16:51, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
OK, I like this criteria, that nothing can be stated in the article unless it is stated in a reputable source. Would you like me to start going through the article now? More specifically, can you give me some references for warming in "recent decades" from a credible source because unless there is a credible source then as you say it needs to be removed. Bugsy (talk) 19:01, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
"Recent decades" is descriptive enough if you consider the past dozen or so decades as being extremely "recent" compared to the overall age of the earth. Personally I would prefer "since the onset of the industrial era," but that's just me. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 23:18, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Incidentally, that graph is very misleading; the CO2 scale could be anything you wanted it to be. Thus, it is worthless. What is important is correlation. Titanium Dragon (talk) 23:33, 27 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
the cato institute has a very different take on the risks of the predicted temperature rise over the next 100 years, call me an optimist if you must but i'll trust them. why is the fact that the objective elements of the scientific community have not yet confirmed this hypothesis (my bias!) failed to be mentioned in the main article? this is the first time i've read the discussion on a topic on wikipedia and i found the discussion above of much more interest than the actual article! one recent month proves nothing regarding a process that moves in cyces lasting thousands of years. moby dick rules! http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5371Christoroyah (talk) 00:09, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Like the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation, the Cato institute takes money from ExxonMobile and produces anti-scientific propaganda in the form of talking points and white-papers. If you trust them on global warming, I have a bridge to sell you. Raul654 (talk) 00:13, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
your oil conspiracy washes no socks with me buddy. the oil industry is heavily monitored by international agencies and every single nation maintains a foreign policy that serves its own interest. give me a counter article from an academic establishment and don't expound paranoia as fact Christoroyah (talk) 00:32, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
do you understand the statement that one recent month proves nothing regarding cycles that constantly fluctuate over periods exceeding thousands of years? your comrade suggests the propaganda of the oil industry motivates my statements or the references thereof. rather than offering counter proof he attempts to defame my sources. your incomprehension is a manifestation of the same "will-to-not-question". You remind me of the witchsmeller pursuivant episode of blackadder where the peasant woman cries "that proves it!" with reference to edmunds hairstyle and his witchery! if in ten years time you can demonstrae that this hot month was the beginning of an extended warming period lasting from x til y you may hae something i would consider worthy of discussion. Christoroyah (talk) 00:53, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Of course I understand that one month proves nothing, which is exactly the point of my post. It was intended to contrast with the previous topic, which also relied on one months results to attempt to discredit global warming. Thank you for your positive reinforcement of my point. I'm not sure anyone has said anything about your motivations, but simply clarified the origins of the funding of the organisation you are using as a reference. If that does not bother you, that is fine, but it still does not make them a reliable source. And it is nice to see another fan of Blackadder. --Michael Johnson (talk) 01:10, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
i skipped through the last article! my side can be stupid too! i still maintain that the main article expresses none of the widely held opinons that global warming is yet another great fictitious white whale. we need unemotional consideration of actual facts until we have a definitive consensus from the scientific community that global warming, or climate change or whatever still lacks. much love to all blackadder fans but rowan atkinsons stand up sucks! with regard the funding of my souurces thing, i give money to help the aged but i cant dictate their corporate opinion.Christoroyah (talk) 01:16, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
The oil funding propaganda only allows some to avoid addressing the substance of the claims made. Cudos to those willing to work and actually address the questions and/or problems. That is the only way science can progress and reach confident conclusions. --Childhood's End (talk) 16:29, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Unless some number of scientists say that January's temperatures were particularly significant I don't see it being worth noting; yes, gradually rising global temperatures will cause this, but saying "this is proof of global warming" is like saying "Its cold outside, therefore global warming isn't real". Titanium Dragon (talk) 12:02, 22 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Question
In the section about recent temperature changes the article says "Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade)." and this is supposedly supported by this source. But looking at the source i don't see anything supporting that claim. At best the source supports that there is a difference in temperature increases from 1979 to 1997, but if that is the case, then why is this specific fairly short time span used? The year 1979 is not highlighted in any way in the article. --Peter Andersen (talk) 11:33, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
AR4 Chapter 3 sez 0.27°C per decade for land vs 0.13°C for sea since 1979. The year 1979 often pops up in data discussions, mainly because it marks the beginning of substantial quantitative data from satellites. Raymond Arritt (talk) 19:25, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
From here, I think some people want to change the first paragraph of the intro. It states, "Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation." It would be helpful to know what we mean by "global warming." Are we talking about what is mostly attributable to humans (1950-present)? Since the instrumental temperature record, which is linked to, by the way (1850-present)? Since the Industrial Revolution (~1750-present)? ~ UBeR (talk) 19:25, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
That sentence (and the one immediately following it) do not speak of the causes of the warming -- only that it (the warming) exists. The fact that it is mostly man-made is established in the 3rd and 4th sentences. Raul654 (talk) 19:33, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
OK, if we aren't talking about anthropogenic global warming, but rather a much broader sense of the phrase given observed increase of temperature, does "recent decades" still make sense? What I got from Dr. Arritts page is that he refers to what is "attributable" (to humans I'm guessing). Marskell wants to imply since humans began industry (to avoid trolling). ~ UBeR (talk) 20:01, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
We've discussed this ad-naseum. Unless it is otherwise clear from the context, "Global warming" refers to the recent (last few decades of) climate change, and its expected continuation in the future. The CO2 production that produced this began with the industrial revolution, but its effects did not become clear until the last few decades. The article - correctly - addresses global warming as a phenomenon whose effects are (a) observable recently and (b) caused by CO2 production (which did not start recently). This article is *not* about the global warming that occured in past geologic eras, or James Inhofe's claim of martian global warming, etc. Raul654 (talk) 20:14, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Raul nails it. Most definitions from reliable sources emphasize recent warming or anthropogenic forcing; those two criteria are essentially the same, since most of the anthropogenic forcing has occurred since 1970.[3][4][] —Preceding unsigned comment added by Raymond arritt (talk • contribs) 20:21, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Not gonna happen: the two warmest years of the 90s were 1998 (first warmest) and 1997 (second warmest). 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 were all warmer than 1997. Raul654 (talk) 22:43, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Well we have 2 years (2009 & 2009) left in this decade. The 90s averaged 0.26 C on the anomaly scale, and the 00s so far rate 0.44 C. So, to make the 00s colder than the 90s, you'd need those last two years to average -0.47 C. Good luck with that. Dragons flight (talk)
Sorry, but we're accustomed to people seriously making arguments like that. Stick around here long enough and you too can descend into the depths of cynicism and despair. ;-) Raymond Arritt (talk) 23:11, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Oh, and "recent warming" and "anthropogenic forcing" are most emphatically not the same thing. The first has been passively observed (and could briefly plateau or reverse), while the latter is a self-evident mechanism. We should distinguish them. Marskell (talk) 22:33, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Well, we do distinguish them. We say that global warming per se is the temperature trend, then we go on to discuss causes. If you're still hung up on the "recent decades" bit then let's change that to "past half century" since that's what IPCC uses, or maybe the equivalent "since the mid-20th century." Don't worry about the Bugsys of this world -- they will always find something they can object to. Write the best article we can with the most solid basis in reliable sources and deal with Bugsys as they arise. Raymond Arritt (talk) 22:39, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I don't like "past half century" because it's unmoored temporally, in the same way "recent decades" is. "Mid-20th century," with a few sources, would be OK, and I suggest we adopt something like that, to at least provide a starting value.
I know what you're saying generally, but I still think we may have a cart and horse problem that will invite more Bugsys. It may be more a failure of the lexicon, than a failure of us, however. "Global warming," as used casually, actually conflates "recent warming" and "anthropogenic forcing," when they should be held distinct. We're not really in a position to separate them. Marskell (talk) 23:02, 21 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Well, my 2 cents is that we are talking about a phenomenon involving global-wide warming that started around the end of the 1800's. Many years of research and increasingly precise data gathering has lead to the now general scientific consensus that the primary cause of this phenomenon is human activity, specifically in its ever increasing emissions of vast amounts of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. So we are not talking specifically about "anthropogenic forcing" as the topic -- we're talking about a "global warming" phenomenon that's best explained by anthropogenic forcing. If an article is about, say, "automobiles," you wouldn't split hairs over whether it's "engine driven" as opposed to something that "naturally" freewheels down a hill. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 02:41, 23 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
If the globe were to cool for one, two, or ten years in the midst of anthropogenic forcing (not impossible), the trolling would be constant. (A single cold January is enough to produce some trolling.) That's my primary point in suggesting the two should be held distinct. I think the first sentence inadequate. But it's held up so far. *Shrugs.* Marskell (talk) 21:04, 24 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Nope. "A period of a few years" is not "climate change." Otherwise every El Niño / La Niña would be an instance of "climate change," which of course it isn't. Raymond Arritt (talk) 02:51, 25 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
How about like either "Global warming is the pronounced, overall increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation" or "Global warming is the gradual increase in the overall average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation"? -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 05:07, 27 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
The caption under the chart says, "Global mean surface temperature anomaly 1850 to 2007 relative to 1961–1990."
However, if you click on the chart, the information says, "The most recent documentation for this data set is Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Haris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D. Jones (2006)."
Since the source was published in 2006, it could not possibly contain temperature data from 2007.
Therefore, the caption under the picture is not accurate.
The temperature dropped over the course of a whole year? Imagine that! I must say, I've noticed it too -- last July, here where I live in the US, the average daily high must have been in the high 90s. (mid 30s for you metric people) And just six little months later, it's dropped into the 30s (1-2 degrees C).
The moral of the story: temperature data is noisy. You can't judge it over the couse of a single year - especially during a La Nina year when everyone expects it to cool slightly. As RA said previously, that would be like saying there's no such thing as inflation because your local walmart is having a sale. Raul654 (talk) 19:45, 27 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Meanwhile, the actual report these articles are 'based' on can be found here. It says that the global temperature anomaly is 0.18 degrees above normal. There's little else I can draw from it, apart from a stark illustration of La Niña. As always, breathless reporting does no-one favours. Mostlyharmless (talk) 23:22, 27 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Will no amount of data against Global Warming change peoples minds? Even in the face of a huge drop, the drop that, as columnists noted today, "wipes out" the whole temperature rise of the last 100 years, not even an acknowledgment that maybe something is up. Global warming really is a religion. Judgesurreal777 (talk) 23:53, 27 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
(dedent)It's worth noting that this is being picked up by a few other news outlets: Fox News and the Canada Free Press. Obviously it's too soon for any peer reviewed science on the issue. If (as I suspect may happen) the media as a whole picks up on this and claims that it's evidence against GW, we'll have to pick up on it and mention it. Like it or not, this page is about global warming in general, and if large numbers of reliable sources report something it becomes fair game here. Oren0 (talk) 19:28, 28 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Why is it worth noting that Fox News talks about it? Fox News didn't create it, they just reported on it. If Fox News reported that the sky is blue, does that make it not true? And you're half-right here... This article SHOULD be on Global Warming in general. Unfortunately, it's about how we're all destroying the Earth and we all have to resort to living like cavemen to stop it. "Saving the world" isn't about actually saving the world, it's about keeping the Earth a place that man can inhabit, whether it goes against natural planetary cycles or not. I've been following the discussion and reading scientific articles and looking at hockey-stick graphs for years now, and I'm sorry, the idea of man-made Global Warming is unproven, and this article should represent as such. The IPCC, a panel of yes-men scientists hand-picked by politicians does not constitute a scientific "consensus" that eliminates the legitimacy of debate.12.26.68.146 (talk) 15:51, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Brit Hume hardly qualifies as a reliable source for making scientific pronouncements. As others have said, let's stick to the peer-reviewed scientific literature here. Thanks though, Silly rabbit (talk) 19:48, 28 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I don't appreciate the condescension. Read what I said again. IF the mainstream media (read: not just Fox, CFP, et al) begins reporting that these temperature readings have an impact on the credibility of global warming, then we'll have to report that information here. We don't have to wait years for papers to get published before we can report on a topic, nor is there any sort of Wikipedia rule I'm aware of stating that media aren't reliable sources for scientific information. Of course we'd prefer scientific literature, but that doesn't change our right to report on what reliable sources report on, which is the way Wikipedia is built. Oren0 (talk) 20:13, 28 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Yes, we do have to wait for it being mentioned in other than mainstream media (which isn't reliable for science), ie. in the peer-reviewed press. Since this is a scientific article. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:27, 28 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
This article is about global warming. That includes all of the relevant areas upon which GW hits: scientific, social, political, economic, etc. If this article were entitled science of global warming, the conversation would be different. If a major story regarding any of these aspects of global warming floats around the popular press, that's good enough for inclusion. Again, there is no Wikipedia policy that I'm aware of that states that the popular press cannot be used as sources in scientific contexts. Even if that were the case, this page isn't just about the science. Oren0 (talk) 22:22, 28 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
That this article is about the science is the long standing consensus. If you want to lobby for changing that, fair enough, but just stating it isn't going to. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 07:14, 29 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I think you guys think I have malicious intentions with regards to this page. I don't want to turn this page into some haven for GW skepticism. There are several things I think this page has gotten wrong. As I said above, global warming is about more than just science. Since the topic is so broad, pretty much every piece (attribution, controversy, economics, politics) has been punted to its own article, per WP:SUMMARY. I think it's time to do the same for science of global warming and leave this page as more of an overview. The decision to make this page all about the science was made before I started editing GW articles (so over a year ago) and now that the articles have grown so much I think it's time to revisit it, but I'll make that proposal more officially another time. The main reason I spend so much time on these GW pages isn't because I'm some kind of skeptic crackpot, it's because some editors here exert ridiculous ownership or these articles and bite anyone that comes near them (and I know I'm nowhere near the first to make this observation). I'm just trying to ensure that anyone that makes any attempt to question the global warming dogma isn't bullied out of existence. And I'm fairly unswayed by accolade in the press. Oren0 (talk) 19:23, 29 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I don't want to turn this page into some haven for GW skepticism. - {{fact}} The main reason I spend so much time on these GW pages isn't because I'm some kind of skeptic crackpot{{fact}} Raul654 (talk) 22:23, 29 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Its also noticeable that the CFP article is factually incorrect. 2007 did show "the greatest single drop in temperature in recorded history". Doesn't speak well for the editorial process and fact checkings at CFP - and thus for the reliability of the CFP in general. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:25, 28 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Weight reduction for the Solar Variation section and Svensmark refs
While I had argued before for altogether depreciating both in the past, at the very least can they be reduced in size? Mainstream science has Solar related effects, which includes Henrik Svensmark's idea of cloud seeding by galactic cosmic rays, as being a very minor component at best in the current global warming trend. Which seems to make both the size of the Solar Variation section and the number of references to Henrik Svensmark a bit unbalanced. I suggest both get reduced in size by about half at least. Thoughts? -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 14:43, 29 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Remove "Developing countries, rather than the developed world, are at greatest economic risk"
This sentence is indirectly sourced from [6]. There it is written:
"Although the steady increase in economic and insured losses is more a function of the
concentration of economic development in vulnerable regions than climate change per se3, it is
clear that climate change will exacerbate these loss trends. Although less developed countries
(LDCs) are particularly vulnerable to future climate impacts, there will also be significant
effects in developed countries (Annex 1 to the Kyoto Protocol). The latest report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underscored the gravity of the situation
when it revised upwards the expected temperature changes over the next 100 years, and
presented new and stronger evidence that most global warming over the past 50 years is
attributable to human activities4."
The first sentence implies that economic losses are highest at the regions of concentrated economic development (e.g. London area, Florida, etc.). The second sentence is about vulnerability to climate impacts, it is not clear if it is economic vulnerability or some other type vulnerability. The sentence "Developing countries, rather than the developed world, are at greatest economic risk" should be removed because it is contradicted by the first sentence in the quote and not really supported by the second one. --Doopdoop (talk) 08:55, 1 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Recently issued scientic reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, among others, have affirmed that most global warming over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities. They have also concluded that:
the climate may warm faster than previously thought;
developing countries are most at risk; and
at some point, sudden and irreversible shifts in global climate patterns may occur.
You're not ref'ing the actual cite used in article ("indirectly" doesn't count), and the actual ref used supports the wording in the article. I'm therefore reverting you again. If you still want to disagree, it's best to do it here first before making undiscussed changes since you have the burden of proof to justify your change. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 14:21, 1 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Actual reference does not refer to economic risk. Also, actual ref is just an executive summary of the document I have cited above. In any case, we have conflicting sources - one sentence says regions of concentrated economic development are at risk, the other describes generic risk to developing countries. I am glad that you explained your revert in the talk page. --Doopdoop (talk) 17:45, 1 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
It might make sense to use the 2007 publication instead of the 2002 one. Here's the 2007 CEO briefing [7]. Honestly, I can't find a more extensive report; it looks like the UNEPI is mostly confining itself to CEO briefings (which don't appear to be summaries of anything else) and singed statements; the most recent document on the UNEPFI climate change page [8] over 25 pages long is a 2002 document. The documents are very vague; they are saying the developing countries are at greatest risk, but they aren't defining what the risk is. Does this mean the risk of the largest dollar value loss? The largest relative disruption of local economies? How about changing the language to better reflect the contents of the UNEPFI source (either 2002 or 2007) to "Developing countries are singled out as being at particular risk from global warming." - Enuja (talk) 00:17, 2 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
You have found an excellent source. Would you agree with replacing this disputed sentence with "Developing countries where approximately a third of the gross national product is agricultural and subsistence agriculture is still being practiced will be particularly harmed by global warming" and citing Schelling? --Doopdoop (talk) 13:09, 2 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Since the section is about the economic effects of Global Warming and since the Shelling piece particularly addresses this, I don't see why not. But that's just me.... -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 14:45, 2 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Another reference to chose from [9] - which (imho) is pretty clear on the subject:
A core challenge is to reach agreement among major emitting countries on objectives and/ or polices to limit future greenhouse gas emissions (in addition, for example, to those designed to reduce the costs of climate change through adaptation). Significant problems of international coordination here arise given that the consequences of GHG emissions, by any one country affect everyone globally. These are exacerbated by the fact that climate change is caused by increases in the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, for which industrialized countries bear primary historic responsibly, while a much larger share of future emissions are expected to come from emerging markets and developing countries. In addition, the impacts (and therefore the benefits of mitigation) are unevenly distributed, with low-income countries likely to be most seriously affected.
I btw. think that the dubious tagging is incorrect (in any instance), since i don't think anyone here considers it dubious, but rather that we may not have sufficiently clear sourcing. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 23:08, 2 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Frankly i think that the wording currently in the article is correct - but i can see that the current reference/references so far have been ambiguous. The Oct 2007 IMF World Economic Outlook appendix 1.2[10] (corrected: [11]) is pretty clear - but doesn't have a direct sentence that says "developing countries will suffer most economic damage" - but its rather clear when reading it (ie. there is no single sentence that says it - but the overall picture is clear). This report goes through all of the major studies of the economic effects of climate change (Stern, Nordhaus, Tol, Mendelsohn). I'd say we include the IMF report and the above short news release as additional backing for the current sentence. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 23:29, 2 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
The current paragraph is all about the UNEP FI Climate Change report, so if we change the sourcing we probably need to change the location of the sentence. I'm perfectly happy with adding additional sourcing to the existing sentence (wherever it may end up), but if you want to change the wording, how about something a little simpler, such as "Developing countries dependent upon agriculture will be particularly harmed by global warming" . Honestly, at this point, actually editing the article would probably be the most productive move; it's easier to re-organize and refine language using the neat wiki tools and looking at diffs. - Enuja (talk) 03:57, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
The point here was that Doopdoop found it dubious that the UNEP really meant economic damage. We've found sufficient reliable sources to show that this in fact isn't dubious, and that while the sentence in the UNEP article/report is ambiguous, the data (and other equally reliable sources) supports it. We can rewrite the section - thats ok for me - but your proposed sentence is incorrect, as dependent on agriculture isn't singled out as a factor. (based on natural resources is though). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:33, 3 March 2008 (UTC)--Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:33, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Let's try using Schelling's quote with Enuja's wording. If you have any ref about natural resources, let's discuss it here and then we can incorporate it too. --Doopdoop (talk) 19:11, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Why exactly are we choosing the opinion of a single individual (albeit a nobel prize winner) over the International Monetary Fund's report (which in turn is based on a plethora of macro-economic studies of the subject)? I'm just curious - since neither is dependent upon the UNEP info. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 19:45, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
IMF's report is an opinion of four individuals (albeit working for an impressive sounding organization), and has only one sentence related to impact to low-income countries. Would love to have refs to a plethora of macro-economic studies though. --Doopdoop (talk) 20:18, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Erm - sorry? A) The IMF is not just an "impressive sounding" organization - look them up - i placed a link. (you could without blushing call them (along with the world bank) the UN of economics) B) A report is not the opinion of the authors (at least not if they are scientifically honest). C) There is a lot of data on low-income countries in the report and in the references linked by the report, take some time out and read it. D) You can find the references to the plethora at the end of the report page 67. Worth mentioning here is Nordhaus(2000+2006+2007),Tol(2005),Stern(2006),Mendelsohn et al(2001). Which according to my readings are the giants on the field of economic assessments on climate change. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 21:00, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
To summarize: I suggest you read the article on the IMF - because i suspect that you think that this is a think-tank, an astroturf or lobby group. Then i suggest that you read the report or at least the summary news release i've linked. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 21:07, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Sorry, I did not notice your second IMF paper and was refering to the first IMF link in my previous posts to this thread. Second IMF paper is much better but as you say is hard to cite and citing it could create WP:OR concerns. Maybe you can add this second IMF paper to the Further Reading section?
There is absolutely no need for me to read an article about IMF. Once I had an unsucessfully edited an article regarding IMF (diff [12]) and was reverted by users that are convinced that IMF is an evil cabal that destroyed the Soviet economy by advising Yeltsin in 1991 (although by the time the IMF had its first discussions with the new Russian government in November 1991, Gaidar and his team already had a clear idea of the economic reforms they wanted to introduce.). --Doopdoop (talk) 22:21, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Why not use both refs? The Schelling piece makes for a good clear summary -- he's a world acknowledged expert talking within his field of expertise. And just have a second link to the less clear but more technical IMF piece -- the old [1][2] punch. -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 12:44, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
No headline
The Gobal Warming artical NEEDS more on the debates that gobal warming could just be a natural weather pattern. Recent reasearch has shown c02 effect in the greenhouse effect is much less the what was though before. Also the fact that the Gobal Warming simulations that have been recently been used as an example have been proven to be less "right" as thought before.(Bigjimmy65 (talk) 23:37, 2 March 2008 (UTC))[reply]
I would suggest you show us your sources. The current version is based on the overwhelming consensus of the scientific community. I have seen no recent strong challenges to this. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:43, 2 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
RS, RS, RS... Well, you asked for it. So, all but one model up till now uses tree-ring data, but now brought into question is if tree-ring data is even viable. So, what do the reports show if the tree-ring data isn't included? Well, let's take a look here. I'll even send you straight to the CSV files here so you can graph it yourself. Huh, looks a lot different. Now let's look way way back. NOAA did a data sample taken from Russian ice samples and produced the graph at the bottom of this page. Strange, if NOAA is correct in their data sample then we aren't even at the warmest we have ever been. Now a big question about CO2 and it's affects on the environment. How about this paper page 4. It addresses the topic that the earth's temperature fluctuation have been followed more closely by the sun than by CO2. And don't RS me about this on. All the sources are cited in the paper. There are pages beyond this that have been published, but have never come to public attention. How about the fact a conference in New York, with quite a few experts in the field, is being held this week questioning global warming? Bob Carter is a distinguished scientist in the field that was interviewed by Glenn Beck talking about this conference. *NOTE: Here is the site about the conference. Took me a while to dig up.* And I think the most interesting report comes from here. Reporting that all the stations had been repainted with Latex paint, interfering with temperature monitoring equipment. Reported discrepancies are as high as 5 degrees Fahrenheit above what they should have been because of this new paint, and also station proximity to roofs and the like. So now even all of our data is off. How are we supposed to know what really is going on? This is not an exact science, so there's no way to give an exact answer. Infonation101 (talk) 06:26, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
As far as I can tell, none of your "sources" deals with the claims above, i.e. "recent reasearch has shown c02 effect in the greenhouse effect is much less the what was though before", and "Gobal Warming simulations [...] have been proven to be less right as thought before". As for your "conference", I suggest you read this. But if you start using the Heartland Institute as a source, you must be really desperate... --Stephan Schulz (talk) 20:26, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Please tell me how is it that because the fossil fuel industry is funding some research that it is automatically considered invalid? Don't give me that the environmentalists are a group of concerned people that only want to save the environment. Al Gore lives in a 30 bedroom house and pays over $2000 a month in utilities. Right, a real environmentalist. Your source to discredit the Heartland Conference is more like a blog. Why don't you try reading the list of speakers of the conference. Hm... Looks to me like quite the list of experts in their field. Now you're reaching for strings trying to discredit the conference with your little blog entry. And by WP's own entry on the Heartland Institute, it looks like quite the involved and published institute. Oh, and I was supporting the "global warming could just be a natural weather pattern" at the beginning of the thread. Not the involvement of CO2 in the environment. Infonation101 (talk) 20:55, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
"A" vice president, not "the" vice president. But back to User:Infonation101: Because we rely on Gore as a source, we are wrong. Hmm....funny...I can't seem to find his name in any of the sources we use. What's your point again? And looking at the list, what is obvious is that there are extremely few climate scientists on it, and the best qualification listed for most is "fellow" of some think tank. "Quite the list of experts", indeed. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:19, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
About the list. If you read the list you would have found it is the list of speakers, not of attendees. And what may I ask be a reputable scientist? Most of the printed articles on the main GW page is full of researchers that are professors of some University. I mean, you take the time to disregard a vice president of the IPCC. And why would you do that so quickly if you were sure that your research would stand up? Also, the point about Al Gore is that the money trail goes both ways. He might not have his name on the research, but he has funded many research programs and made quite a bit in the process. If you are so sure about your research, and your stance, then go through it all and prove to me by the data driven research you love that global warming is a fact, not an opinion. I don't see a single spot on the page that provides all the alternative information that has been presented. Infonation101 (talk) 23:00, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Al Gore has funded "many research programs"? Tell me more. But, given your great list of scientists: Are you with Singer, claiming that we still have 200 years or so to go in the upswing of an "unstoppable global warming" cycle[13], or are you with Carter "global warming has stopped in 1998"[14]? Or has your "data-driven research" not allowed you to settle on one of these positions? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:37, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Scientific Theory or Fact
Just my 2 cents here but the article, starting with the first sentence really doesn't approach the subject as scientific theory, but seems to try and state it as fact. While "Global Warming" itself may be accurately described as a term by the first sentence sans "projected continuation". The "projected continuation" implies Global Warming Theory, which should IMO be handled a little differently. The term "theory" only appears in this article twice as opposed to 34 uses in the page on Gravitation (not counting references) which is why I am concerned that the tone and structure of this article really doesn't seem to be in keeping with other scientific articles on WP (see evolution, gravitation). 71.164.241.199 (talk) 05:52, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
You have to distinguish between Global Warming as an observed fact and theories e.g. in the form of climate models that try to model it to various approximations. Similarly, the existence of gravity is an observed fact, not theory. But there are various theories that describe it to some approximation. Count Iblis (talk) 13:48, 3 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Cool dude, we can play that way. Here is the information given from the University of Illinois. How about NOAA? Last I heard that info is good. Let's look through some of their reports: 07/08 Western Hemisphere, Climate of 2008 January (and if I read at the bottom correctly it says, "The January 2008 snow cover extent was the largest extent over the 42-year historical record.") I know it also says that temperature is above average, but that's not what is being discussed here. I've read the reports on La Nina, and I invite anyone to dig up articles dated before January 08 that predicts this much snow fall. So Stephan, Yes, and the whole RS thing has to be seriously thought through. I swear I read that in every article that says anything remotely against the concept of Global Warming. I find it here an easy way to shut people up. Not get the truth. Infonation101 (talk) 05:57, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I invite anyone to dig up articles dated before January 08 that predicts this much snow fall. - La Nina expected to make months ahead wet, cold - More snow and windstorms likely - http://www.theolympian.com/incaseofemergency/story/229350.html , dated September 2007. "SEATTLE — Expect a wetter than normal fall and winter, and maybe more snow and wind storms, forecasters said Thursday at a National Weather Service workshop." And with that, your claims are thusly debunked. Raul654 (talk) 06:35, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Oh please. Cook says, "There is a strong correlation with snowpack in the mountains and snow in low-lying areas" Hm... Mountains and low-lying areas. Is there any evinced that La Nina would affect the polar ice pack levels? Give me an article that shows how La Nina could get all the way up or down there. And where is a data sample or some type of graph? I don't even see how this is scientifically substantiated. This is coming from the Seattle area, but is in no way a prediction for the GLOBAL affect. And really Raul654, the whole argument doesn't ride on this fact, so it couldn't be "debunked" even if you found a correlating article. I just invited anyone to because I was curious. Infonation101 (talk) 06:48, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Back on topic here, but the point here was to critique the lack of references to the theories cited as supporting information and lack of discussion on Global Warming Theory as a theory. In the referenced articles (gravitation, evolution) the tone and structure seems to be much different than this page. I find the lack of effort in this article to distinguish between observable and agreed upon scientific fact, and the theories that attempt to explain them to be disconcerting. Furthermore, the lack of references to the various theories presented as theories seems to imply that they are instead facts. In general, I think the article seems rushed... maybe even "breathless" as it plows through only the theories and references that support the idea of global warming. 205.141.201.25 (talk) 17:25, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Politics are the source of the need to suppress doubt. This is, imo, the one major problem with this article, which would otherwise be mostly fine. You correctly point to the different tone of other important scientific articles, which do not fall into scientism as this one does, despite not being all about modelling complex systems. --Childhood's End (talk) 17:33, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Good argument, and I agree with you, but how do you plan on making any changes to the page? As you can see from the large amount of discussion above, everything that is presented receives an attack on the basis of RS or NOR, etc. I've compiled at least two dozen independent research reports that give sufficient evidence against global warming, and I'd be happy to present the research if I knew that it would actually make a difference. Also, sorry about getting off topic above. The politics that get involved really bring out the best in me. Infonation101 (talk) 19:26, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Models may underestimate climate swings 12. New models created based on non-treering data 3. Temperature is found to better follow sun surface temperature, not CO2 levels 45 (ICECAP is peer-reviewed). NOAA released data that shows we are not at our highest temperature 6. Our temperature monitors have been incorrectly eaten and used, and the data we have been receiving is off 7. Over 500 scientists have gotten together the first week of March to discuss if global warming is even real 8 (this is to show that there are many experts in the field that doubt global warming). Polar ice cap levels are completely back to normal 91011. The arctic shows no signs of green house gas warming 12. Here's some of them. How many articles would have to be presented for this to be so obviously apparent? Infonation101 (talk) 20:15, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Sorry, I'm really confused what your argument is. After looking at the link that you posted here, and going through several year comparisons, it does look 2008 has more ice on the North Pole than previously. Here is the graph from that same site that I was referring to. Also from your post, if we look at information from 10 years ago it looks like this. Looks to me like there is a lot more ice now than there was. Infonation101 (talk) 22:23, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
If you think that 2008 has more ice than 1980, then you are not reading that graph correctly. The purple areas - areas of 100% ice concentration - are substantially smaller in 2008 than in 1980. As far as this graph, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out why the Artic ice was thicker in January 2007 and thinner in September 2007. Raul654 (talk) 22:30, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
On the graph it shows receding off the coast of Norway, but more than usual off the coasts of Alaska, and also the Norther part of Maine. Now moving off this specific subject, what about all the other research that has been presented? You asked for all of it, and now it's like none of it is valid because one discrepancy exists. Every research paper that may come up has been disregarded. Every researcher that opposes global warming is being figuratively dismembered. When and how can some of these topics be presented on the main GW page? Having read over the other cited articles from which the page was written, most of these articles meet the same NOR, RS, PR, etc. that everyone that has been asking for. Infonation101 (talk) 23:53, 4 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Okay, Infonation101, I tried to go through all of your links.
Link #1 is a New Scientist news article about Link #2, so Link #2 is what needs to be evaluated. The article is a highly technical paper on how to do a better job of reconstructing early temperature. Where would this reference go in the general coverage on Climate in Wikipedia? It looks like it should go on Temperature record, or Temperature record of the past 1000 years (in the Northern Hemisphere). Unfortunately, the sections on how proxies are used need more information and more sources (and more organization; I'd expect that stuff to be in temperature record, but it's mostly in past 1000 years) before they would benefit from the very interesting but very technical Nature paper you've linked. In other words, this reference doesn't appear useful right now.
Link #3; I'm not having a lot of luck with the journal "Energy and Environment." This website [15] does not read like the website of a peer-reviewed basic science journal, and the journal doesn't appear to have a publisher; the link to abstracts goes to a self-publishing bussiness. If you follow that link and glance at the titles, a trend becomes instantly obvious; this appears to be a self-published climate change skeptic journal. So I'm not going to pay $18 to read the article. I can find other publications by C. Loehle that are in genuine peer-reviewed literature, but ISI's combined database search does not appear to include "Energy and Environment." So, I can't evaluate the article, but the source is suspect.
Links # 4 & 5. Icecap doesn't look any more peer reviewed than RealClimate. A bunch of people getting together and agreeing on something is not peer review. In peer review, an editor (usually a group of editors) chooses at least two people to review the paper, reads the reviews, and decides if the paper should be included in the journal or not.
Links # 6. Doesn't appear to have anything to do with NOAA, and the first page at least includes facts that seem consistent with what I'm familiar with and with what is on this wikipedia article. There are some value-judgement related words that appear to be different from what is on this article page, but we try to let readers on Wikipedia make their own value judgements, so I don't see how this link could help improve the article.
Link # 7. Eat what? I followed the link anyway, even though I'm not sure what you are trying to say, but this is a private call for data, not peer-reviewed, published complied data.
Links 8-11 have been addressed above.
Link # 12 Is a 1993 news article. For links #1 & 2 you gave the important part, the actual published paper. I'm not going to look this one up because it is 15 years old, and so I'm not sure how it could improve the wikipedia article.
I hope all of that wasn't a waste of my time, and you are convinced that most editors really do like to see good sources. I don't see any sources here that should be included in this article (although there is one that should be in included in an improved version of a different article. In the future, please try to improve the article by suggesting specific improvements, backed up by peer reviewed literature, instead of just listing sources that you think disagree with the article. - Enuja (talk) 01:42, 5 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Impressive. That puts my faith back into what actually reaches these pages. One last question for now. This image I compiled in a hurry using csv files taken from NOAA about global temperature records (Series 2) and CO2 levels (Series 1) and solar temperature records (Series 3). How is it that they attribute global temperature more to "anthropogenic greenhouse gas" than to solar temperature? Honest question. I just see more correlation to solar surface temperatures than the steady rise of CO2 that's been put into the atmosphere. I quickly read through about a dozen reports from the main page, but didn't find anything that addressed this question specifically. Infonation101 (talk) 04:49, 5 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I made a similar plot some time ago: Image:Temp-sunspot-co2.svg. The real trick is that you want to smooth the solar data over at least an 11 year interval so you can see what's going on beyond the 11 year cycle oscillations. With that done the longer term trends are more clear -- certainly solar effects are a driver, but the last 50 years or so starts to show the effects of CO2. So yes, solar effects are quite clear in high frequency ranges, but the longer term, lower frequency, trends are CO2 driven, and that's (a very simplistic summary of) why it gets the blame. -- Leland McInnes (talk) 14:33, 5 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
While I enjoy a good debate as much as the next Joe on the internet, the question was one of style and tone. As a whole, and please don't take this personally, the article reads more like a thesis paper than a WP article attempting to cover a very complex subject in an objective fashion.
1.) We might want to consider a page something along the lines of Evolution as theory and fact to clear up some of the ambiguity in terminology and distinguish between the pieces of "global warming" attributed to observable scientific fact and the areas that are theory.
2.) I think the structure/outline of the article should be revised in a manner more consistent with other WP science articles. The page on evolution does a very good job at breaking a complex subject into easy to digest sections where this page seems to ramble, restate, and overlap. To me, this is the most significant problem with the page.
3.) Given the breadth and complexity of the subject, this article should serve as a coherent jumping off point to other articles that dig into particular subject areas. Again, the article seems to be somewhat random as to what Main Article links are where and why. (for example, why is Effects of Global Warming the Main Article link for two different sections? Why isn't the Article on Climate Change referenced for Feedback Loops in addition to or instead?)
4.) While I respect the fact that there are other main articles on the matter, the lack of any significant mention of debate, skepticism or alternative theories (the article on gravitation lists alternative theories for goodness sake) seems very out of place for a scientific subject that is as complex and in a state of flux as this one is. 71.164.241.199 (talk) 05:26, 5 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
There is more than enough fringey stuff in the article (do a word searches on the page for first "Polar" and then "Svensmark"). Among scientists actively engaged in climate, there is now very, very little, if any skepticism or alternative theories. The debates have all been among the, hmmm...how to put this..."great unwashed of science". -BC aka Callmebc (talk) 01:06, 6 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I like how "the debate is over" and how we can't mention how it may be just a theory even though there are so many people who come to the talk page to express their disagreement with Man Made Global Warming. Did you all know that the founder of the Weather Channel is a staunch skeptic of Man Made Global Warming and he's trying to sue Al Gore for fraud? Doesn't sound like skepticism of Global Warming is a "fringe" argument to me. A while back, I suggested we add a section about how other celestial bodies in our solar system are warming. My ideas were turned away. Not altered, not compromised, just shot down. The gestapo that has nothing better to do than monitor this article on computers that contribute to Global Warming if Global Warming exists are working hard around the clock trying to keep dissention on Man Made Global Warming off the radar. Well, I'd like to re-instate my idea of adding a section that talks about Global Warming happening on other planets, and the idea that the sun may be the main culprit. Here are some articles to get you going:
Now, I'm sure that 5 minutes after posting this someone's gonna come here and say something like, "Well, the cousin of the head janitor who works at the building across the street from the National Geographic corporate office owns a dog that bit the wife of a guy whose brother is a junior accountant at Fox News, so they're all evil hate mongering conservatives who are tied with Fox News." But, that kind of close-mindedness is expected by me. I'm not doing this because I expect to alter this article, I'm just doing this to put one more voice out there that Man Made Global Warming is a hoax.
I also find it funny that at the top of this discussion page it mentions that this discussion isn't supposed to be a forum for people to express their opinions on Global Warming. Why not??? Science should always be up for debate! Science without debate is propaganda, and that's what this Global Warming article is. In my opinion, this article should be about a theoretical warming, man-made or not, on a planetary scale of ANY planet. So, by giving off this warning at the top of this page we're basically saying that there is no room for scientific debate on this issue, and the science behind the Global Warming wikipedia article is irrefutable and can not be altered. We're just here to discuss the most effective way of expressing propaganda.66.255.105.3 (talk) 02:08, 6 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Do you ever read more than the headlines? Please check the FAQ for Pluto and Jupiter. Read page two of the NatGeo article on Mars. And don't take your science from the Telegraph. Not allowing general discussion of a topic is a standing Wikipedia policy, not something we invented for this article. See WP:FORUM and WP:TPG. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 02:20, 6 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Well, it looks like the FAQ has all the arguments to shoot down dissention all lined up like a pretty little firing squad... just like a kid who has all the answers. "Do you ever read more than the headlines?" You don't have to be an elitist snobby-assed jerk. I'm not trying to have "general discussion" (which is conventiently identified when it goes against YOUR point of view). I'm adding a different angle at looking at the issue I feel is credible enough to add to the article. Climate change is happening on other planets. I just don't understand why that is so far away from the idea of a global warming. Planetary Warming and Global Warming have nothing to do with each other? Like I said, "Global Warming" should entail ANY warming on ANY planet REGARDLESS of the causes!66.255.105.3 (talk) 02:48, 6 March 2008 (UTC)[reply]
