Talk:Climate change: Difference between revisions
→Proposed Change to the First Paragraph of Global Warming Article: added "in weight" for clarity |
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:::::::My apologies. I meant to say that what you were wanting put in the article, as though it were equal in weight to the scientific consensus, fit under "plausible but currently unaccepted theories." --[[User:Cornince|Cornince]] ([[User talk:Cornince|talk]]) 22:30, 21 December 2010 (UTC) |
:::::::My apologies. I meant to say that what you were wanting put in the article, as though it were equal in weight to the scientific consensus, fit under "plausible but currently unaccepted theories." --[[User:Cornince|Cornince]] ([[User talk:Cornince|talk]]) 22:30, 21 December 2010 (UTC) |
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::::::::Which part(s) of the proposed paragraph are "plausible, but currently unaccepted theories"? What in that paragraph is factually inaccurate? Why, please be specific, should we not modify the current first paragraph to include this content? [[User:Mcoers|Mcoers]] ([[User talk:Mcoers|talk]]) 23:47, 21 December 2010 (UTC) |
Revision as of 23:47, 21 December 2010
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Frequently asked questions
Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?
A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.[1]
Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?
A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."[2] Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?
A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,[3][4] including academically trained ones,[5][6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:
Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?
A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?
A5: Two reasons:
Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?
A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning.
In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2?
A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.
Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?
A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?
A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.[12]
More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?
A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.
While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:
Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?
A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?
A12: Measurements show that it has not.[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.
Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?
A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.[18] Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?
A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.
Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?
A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.
Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?
A16: No,
Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?
A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?
A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?
A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.
Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?
A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?
A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?
A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?
A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:[28]
Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?
A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References
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Global_warming#Politics needs clarification to Kyoto Protocol as it is due to expire.
Global_warming#Politics needs clarification to Kyoto Protocol which will be expired soon, see Group of Two for example. New Protocols are in the works, such as from the Geoengineering article and Convention on Biological Diversity article relating to the Nagoya Protocol. 209.255.78.138 (talk) 20:26, 5 November 2010 (UTC)
- Probably correct. It should be in the Main article politics of global warming first, though. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 07:31, 6 November 2010 (UTC)
- See Post-Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions 209.255.78.138 (talk) 15:08, 9 November 2010 (UTC)
- I thought you said that the Convention on Biological Diversity was pre-Kyoto, even if it were relevant to Global warming. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 15:42, 9 November 2010 (UTC)
- Various Conference of the Parties ... 99.155.147.236 (talk) 06:09, 8 December 2010 (UTC)
- Not just United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change#Conferences_of_the_Parties, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity[1], and others[2][3][4] ... 99.27.172.206 (talk) 07:20, 10 December 2010 (UTC)
- Various Conference of the Parties ... 99.155.147.236 (talk) 06:09, 8 December 2010 (UTC)
- I thought you said that the Convention on Biological Diversity was pre-Kyoto, even if it were relevant to Global warming. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 15:42, 9 November 2010 (UTC)
- See Post-Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions 209.255.78.138 (talk) 15:08, 9 November 2010 (UTC)
This article in popular culture
Just as a heads-up, the Pearls Before Swine strip for November 18, 2010, features Rat editing the Global warming article to say that "jumping off your roof while imitating one of The Three Stooges is a good way to curb carbon emissions." Based on previous encounters between PBS fans and Wikipedia, this article could use a spot of extra attention for the next few days. - Dravecky (talk) 07:17, 18 November 2010 (UTC)
why was the global warming is so much concern and why was it not mention in the 80's and the 90's? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 199.222.128.250 (talk) 02:17, 23 November 2010 (UTC)
It was, it was called the greenhouse effect then. Climate change is the third name given to these phenomena, AGW is the most recent and the coolest. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.106.97.225 (talk) 10:26, 23 November 2010 (UTC)
Why do the global warming / climate change folks point to sea level rise as proof when the Wikipedia "Sea Level Rise" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise shows a steady trend? This leads me to believe that the sea level rise information (graphs) in the climate change articles is presented in a way that shows bias. There are two graphs shown on Wikipedia's Sea Level Rise page... please add another higher quality graph showing the same data over the last 10 to 20 years. And add higher quality graphics and a legend showing all the individual data lines from each station. Then I can make a more informed view from data that isn't so skewed by bias. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 97.114.177.129 (talk) 23:47, 25 November 2010 (UTC)
I think the most common evidence for temperature rice is the temperature records. That is probably why this article or the article climate change doesn't include any graphs of the current sea level rice. You can however find the satelite data of the last 17 year sealevel here http://sealevel.colorado.edu/results.php ScientificStandard (talk) 20:27, 30 November 2010 (UTC)
- Probably the main reason none of the climate change articles have good graphs of temperature and sea-level rise is that the best ones are copyrighted by the IPCC, and so far we have not been able to arrange mutually satisfactory conditions of use. There are other graphs — indeed, many graphs — but, like much other material in primary sources, often discordant. This is why we generally stick with material from secondary sources. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:26, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- We do get, and use, some excellent graphs from http://www.globalwarmingart.com/ --Nigelj (talk) 21:46, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- Yes, indeed, but those are largely re-creations, and so somewhat lacking in authenticity. And (the last time I looked), not as comprehensive as what the IPCC has. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:11, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- We do get, and use, some excellent graphs from http://www.globalwarmingart.com/ --Nigelj (talk) 21:46, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
What is the Ideal Temperature?
Sorry for the intrusion but this seem like a reasonable place to find directions to science regarding what the ideal temperature is for life on earth and how that is determined and is it sustainable in light of geologic record. It seems relevant if humans are going to embark on massive geoengineering either through carbon brokers or mitigation. And if possible, any sources of information on how humans may adapt when (not if) we encounter the next Little or Great Ice Age. This is not, I repeat, not POV. They are questions that I would honestly like to know the answer to. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Multiperspective (talk • contribs) 04:19, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- Did you search the past discussions for similar comments? There's a search bar at the top of the talk page for archived discussions, here's a in-page link, if you need help, please ask. If "ideal" is along the lines of "good", here are some results. I don't recall anyone questioning you of POV, but I would appreciate it if you could demonstrate that you've into the subject before asking. That's all, thanks. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 19:38, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- While I do appreciate that WP:NOTAFORUM and these items aren't significant enough for this overview page, recent news indicates that various temperatures seem to have suited trees, but it's a while since we've been in this situation, and there could be some jumps ahead. Not all humans might like such changes. . . dave souza, talk 20:28, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
- See Talk:Global_warming/FAQ. In particular, Q20 deals with the fallacy of the "optimal" temperature. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 21:06, 5 December 2010 (UTC)
Record low temperatures at global warming summit
Could we include this reference in the article:
http://theweek.com/article/index/210181/irony-alert-the-unusually-chilly-global-warming-summit
"As negotiators from nearly 200 countries met in Cancun to strategize ways to keep the planet from getting hotter, the temperature in the seaside Mexican city plunged to a 100-year record low of 54° F."
SuzBenson (talk) 04:41, 11 December 2010 (UTC)
- And how would the temperature in a single city on a single day have any relevance to an article about long-term global temperature trends? --CurtisSwain (talk) 05:53, 11 December 2010 (UTC)
Still No Adequate Representation of Skeptical Perspectives In This Article
Every now and then I check back to this article to see if the "Editors" have allowed any skeptical information to creep into the article. Unfortunately, this article is still lacking any serious acknowledgment of the skeptical perspective.
The only times the skeptical perspective is even mentioned it is at the end of the article and couched in the fact that skeptical scientists are "funded" by the oil industry. Well, they aren't ALL funded by the oil industry. And sadly, there is no mention of the fact that many of the advocates' funding comes from government sources that would benefit from increasing regulation on energy production.
In the past, I have suggested that the folks who have editorial control over this page would be more intellectually honest if they would include a prominent skeptic who could negotiate a more balanced perspective. My suggestions were deleted by some ambitious editor. I suppose it was vandalism of some sort.
So, here I am again, pushing the idea of AT LEAST INCLUDING someone from the skeptical side of the aisle who could provide proper balance. I mean, are you people so threatened that you can't even listen to the other side?
Now, there is plenty of precedence on Wikipedia for including alternate perspectives in the presentation of controversial subjects (even when the alternate view has it's own article). Some examples:
- If you look at the page for Creationism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creationism), the article is fairly balanced between explaining the views that support and those that differ. The article explains the sources of various perspectives on the issue. There is also an article for Natural Selection (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_Selection) - so, there is precedence for including the contrarian view even if there is an article dedicated to the contrarian view.
- The page for American Exceptionalism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_exceptionalism) includes the counter-argument for American Exceptionalism in the second paragraph. So, that's very prominent.
- The third paragraph of the article on Animal Testing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_testing) includes the perspectives of both those who favor the practice as well as those who oppose it.
I propose that the Global Warming article would be stronger if skeptical perspectives were given proper treatment. Unfortunately, I expect that some "editor" will simple delete this suggestion as irrelevant. And of course, that would be dishonest. Mcoers (talk) 04:14, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- You don't have a reliable source or a specific piece of text to add, removed, or change. Therefore what you have isn't a "proposal" in the sense leading towards an edit to the article, but a "request." I'm sure someone will disagree with your request, but in my opinion ignoring it would be preferable giving your comment's lack of good faith. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 05:13, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- The problem in the case of this article is that the editorial process is controlled by people who delete all information that doesn't support their political cause. So, in this case, the proposal is to add qualified "skeptical" reviewers to the process so that people who do propose legitimately sourced information can have it reviewed in a process that is actually democratic. Rather than the current process which is terribly flawed.
- In this case, I properly sourced the issue of providing alternative points of view within Wikipedia articles. So, no, it's not in bad faith. It's presented here in the context of the circumstances where information is systematically deleted if it doesn't support the cause of global warming. In this case, we can't improve the article until we improve the review process for making edits. Mcoers (talk) 05:20, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- Regardless of what you or I believe, I appreciate your act of good faith by proving a proposal. Before I move on to the discussion below, I just have one thing to say. Article talks are for the article, never the editors. What you are suggesting belongs at a notice board, I suggest either reliable sources noticeboard for the wider community to look at your sources, or more directly the administator's noticeboard if you believe there is editor abuse. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 05:48, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- I have already posted this information months ago to the administrator's noticeboard. I might as well have explained the problem to the rock beside my garage. Nothing has changed. It never does, despite the fact that hundreds of people have been on this discussion page proposing well-sourced information that has been summarily deleted. Wikipedia loses credibility when it does not include the ENTIRE story. Mcoers (talk) 06:00, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- Regardless of what you or I believe, I appreciate your act of good faith by proving a proposal. Before I move on to the discussion below, I just have one thing to say. Article talks are for the article, never the editors. What you are suggesting belongs at a notice board, I suggest either reliable sources noticeboard for the wider community to look at your sources, or more directly the administator's noticeboard if you believe there is editor abuse. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 05:48, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- This is what I have in reply:
- So you have posted to the Administrator's noticeboard? Perhaps not under a different name, because your edit contributions says otherwise.
- I looked at the proposal. A link to Archive 58 would have sufficed. In reading the previous discussion, this is my view:
- If this is about content: You don't have to YELL. What you are saying is clear, but others disagree with you, and you have not provided a satisfactory reply that would convince them otherwise.
- If this is about actual editor abuse: I'd like to see evidence, or you may present evidence at the administrator's notice board (which would be better).
- Ok, well, this is what I have to say to you CaC:
- 1. The only reason I re-posted the article proposal is because you said that you wanted to see a properly sourced article edit. So, I re-posted it. Obviously just leaving it in the archives doesn't do any good.
- 2. Yes, I did post a complaint about editor bias. If you can't find it, then perhaps it isn't there anymore. I have only one user credential for this site, and I don't pretend to be other people.
- 3. So, if people disagree with me, then that is grounds for eliminating my proposal from consideration? Well, that's great because I disagree with the way the entire GW article is written. So, by your logic the entire thing must be removed immediately. Hey, we may not agree, but the way these things are supposed to operate you need to give the opposing side a voice.
- Obfuscating the lack of editorial diversity here by discounting dissenting opinion on the basis of any of dozens of technicalities does not make the case for Global Warming. Want proof of it? Well, I've just pointed out the fact that there is no mention of legitimate skepticism in the leading paragraphs of the article. If you need a link in order to make the point legit, then here it is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming. I have also sourced other articles that cover controversial subjects that do contain dissenting opinions. Those links are in the above thread. If you need me to repost them, I can; but then you'd get after me for re-posting information.
- There is no mention of climategate at all.
- The graphs that are included are created by some "dude" with an organization called, "Global Warming Art Project". What the heck is that?! So, if I have an art project called the "Skeptical Global Warming Art Project", then does that mean my stuff qualifies for publication here?
- The timelines of these charts are cherry-picked to show a far more dramatic climb in temperature than what would be shown if the author used almost any other timeline. An improvement would be to show a chart of the last 10 years of global temperatures (which would show a decline). That way readers can see that, in fact, temperatures stopped going up around 1998. Mcoers (talk) 14:02, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- I think you believe your points are self-evident, which they are not. You don't need to repost an earlier post. List your main points, because right now I'm not quite sure which points you want me or someone else to reply to. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 15:57, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- Really? You mean to tell me that you actually don't understand what I'm saying? Here, let me say it again.
- I want the editors who have authority to modify this page to allow skeptical information to be included in the presentation. There, do you understand that? Mcoers (talk) 16:29, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- I understand. Obviously your discussion lies with the "editors" and not me. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 19:49, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- I think you believe your points are self-evident, which they are not. You don't need to repost an earlier post. List your main points, because right now I'm not quite sure which points you want me or someone else to reply to. --CaC 174.52.224.148 (talk) 15:57, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
Proposed Change to the First Paragraph of Global Warming Article
Back in January of this year, I proposed the following change to the Global Warming Article. At the time, it was swept under the carpet despite a significant level of support from other Wikipedia editors who are blocked from making edits to the Article. I would like to re-propose this edit in light of my previous suggestion that we allow Skeptical perspectives to be included in the article:
Begin Proposal
Global warming is a scientific theory that became popular in the 1980s to explain the observed increase in global temperature. The theory was proposed as a human-caused phenomenon, and is often referred to as Anthropomorphic Global Warming (AGW). Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century. However, the most recent decade has seen temperature declines in North America, Australia, and Europe. As a result, the controversy over human-caused global warming has increased. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), The University of East Anglia, the National Academy of Sciences, and dozens of other education and governmental institutions have recently come under increased scrutiny as revelations of missing source data and allegations of fraud revealed in the "Climategate" scandal have called some of the fundamental assumptions made by leading AGW scientists into doubt. Sources to cite:
Source to cite to substantiate the fact of decreasing N. American temperatures over the last decade:
Source to cite to substantiate the fact of decreasing European temperatures over the last 8 years (Compare Seasonal Averages):
- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2001/winter/averages.html
- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2009/winter/averages.html
Source to cite to substantiate the fact of decreasing Australian temperatures over the last decade:
Sources to substantiate the fact of increasing public scrutiny:
- Time Magazine: http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1929071_1929070_1945175,00.html
- The Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/04/AR2009120404511.html?hpid=topnews
- The Times: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7009081.ece
Sources to cite to substantiate the initiation of fraud investigations:
- United Kingdom Parliament: http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/science_technology/s_t_pn14_100122.cfm
- Penn State press release regarding an investigation into Michael Mann: http://www.ems.psu.edu/sites/default/files/u5/Mann_Public_Statement.pdf
- Washington Times: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/dec/02/universities-take-action-on-climategate/
- Source to cite to substantiate the fact of the Climategate scandal: http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=803
Add Sections for:
- Climategate
- Decreasing Temperatures
- Global Warming Industry
- Climate Change Throughout History
- Opposing theories about CO2 and it’s effect on the climate
Leaked emails have surfaced showing leading proponents of AGW theory to have manipulated data and taken actions to destroy raw data in an effort to thwart Freedom of Information Act Mcoers (talk) 05:41, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
Well, Climategate can't be used like that because the scientists have been cleared of scientific misconduct multiple times by the reports that were commissioned into the matter. Also, I was under the impression that (depending on which temperature chart you favour) that this year is going to be either the equal hottest or equal second hottest on record globally, so unless I've got that wrong, there can hardly be any justification that the temperature is declining. Hitthat (talk) 07:51, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- Hitthat, if you look at the NOAA website that I cited (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html), you can actually compare the various Month over Month (MoM) data trended for the last ten years (or any other period you choose). There has been an average decline of -0.66 degrees in North America between 2000 and 2010.
- The averages fall out by month like this:
- * January 2000 - 2010: -2.32
- * February 2000 - 2010: -3.16
- * March 2000 - 2010: +0.43
- * April 2000 - 2010: -1.3
- * May 2000 - 2010: -1.51
- * June 2000 - 2010: +0.75
- * July 2000 - 2010: -0.54
- * August 2000 - 2010: -0.61
- * September 2000 - 2010: +0.28
- * October 2000 - 2010: -0.56
- * November 2000 - 2010: +2.32
- * December 2000 - 2010: -1.71
- * Average temperature trend for the decade for North America: -0.660833333
Mcoers (talk) 13:59, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
Additionally, Climategate can and should be used "like that" because the emails that were disclosed clearly show these scientists colluding to avoid compliance with FOIA requests to see their source data. In fact, no one has seen their source data. The only way they can come to the conclusions they do (like your mention of this being the "hottest" year on record - which it isn't) is by modifying the source data - I think the word they use is to "cleanse it". Well, the whole point of peer-review is that the peer must have access to the same data and be able to reproduce the result.
Since they've obliterated the ability to do that, I think it is reasonable to include the fact that the information is unverifiable.Mcoers (talk) 14:25, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- I can see why you got nowhere with the administrator's noticeboard. The problems you identify are way beyond their powers to fix. You need to take these matters up with the UK House of Commons Science and Technology Committee, Lord Oxburgh of the Science Assessment Panel, and with Sir Muir Russell of the Independent Climate Change Email Review. Failing that, take your concerns straight to the United Nations, because they recently organised a Climate Change Conference in Cancún, Mexico, and seemed unaware of the points you are making. If you get anywhere with any of them, come back and let us know (e.g. the URL of the webpage where they retract their previous statements), and we will give the matter full and detailed coverage here. --Nigelj (talk) 18:17, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- Well, this is just sarcasm. Obviously you should try and keep your comments productive. Isn't that right? Mcoers (talk) 18:37, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- I don't think it's sarcasm. While temperatures have maybe decreased on some continents within the last few years, you cannot provide a source that concludes that this decrease casts scientifical doubts on the global warming research. If you yourself conclude that, that's original research. So if you're really convinced that you can disprove GW theory, you should indeed contact the panels mentioned by Nigelj. Wikiepdia is certainly the wrong venue to discuss your research results. The fact that investigations have been performed about those hacked emails is not related with the science discussed on the article page. Sorry. 85.178.140.24 (talk) 21:46, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- Well, this is just sarcasm. Obviously you should try and keep your comments productive. Isn't that right? Mcoers (talk) 18:37, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
- You are tilting at windmills. 97% of active publishing climatologists support the science behind AGW and many reliable sources do the same, as listed in the the article itself or in articles linked from the article. It is not fair and balanced to try to force the same weight to the arguments of opponents on this article when those opponents do not have nearly as much backing them up, and right now the evidence shows counterexamples. Wikipedia is not the place to try to forge a new path for science to take, as Wikipedia follows the scientists in the field themselves. If you have an issue with the science, then take it up with the scientists. If they consistently reject you, then perhaps you should take a hard look at your own perception of the body of evidence, rather than trying to force Wikipedia to give undue weight to your preferred sources and trying to put original research in a scientific article. --Cornince (talk) 03:17, 21 December 2010 (UTC)
- Science isn't supposed to be the process of collecting together a bunch of like-minded partisans who go forth to promote their collective and negotiated mindset. It's supposed to be about the constant challenge of the scientific process.
- I think that what I've provided here gives a justification for why skeptics have reason to believe that the AGW issue is overblown. This isn't a movement of oil industry hacks who are paid to have their opinions. I've listed off a decade of cooling in North America, backed by information provided by the NOAA; as well as information for the Southern Hemisphere and Europe. To my knowledge, these data don't exist to the public in other areas of Asia, Africa and so forth. So, it isn't something I'm able to cite as a source. Furthermore, I've given sourced information documenting the issues about corruption within the AGW research community.
- The researchers weren't found guilty of wrongdoing? What does that prove? O.J. Simpson was acquitted for murder, but that doesn't mean he didn't do something wrong!
- 97% of researchers believe something? I'd say 100% of Wikipedia editors believe in AGW - of course the "believers" squash out the "skeptics" here on Wikipedia in the same fashion they do in the literature, so the result is predictable. What percentage is required to disprove it? We all know the answer to that question.
- At any rate, the controversy about AGW is a part of the story. It is blatantly ignored in this article. I think I'm making a very solid, sourced case, for changing the editorial process here, and not one of you is addressing that issue except with sarcastic, and I'll say flippant remarks which are not in the spirit of the type of discussion we're supposed to be having here.
- I think it is entirely reasonable to respect the wishes of hundreds of contributing editors and help to make this article better by following the intent of the Wikipedia process and include a more diverse editorial review process, instead of pretending like the "other side" doesn't exist. Now, the question before you at this point is, are you on the side of freedom of thought and the thorough presentation of information, or are you just going to continue to push your political position and squash all dissenting perspectives in order to continue the appearance of consensus? Mcoers (talk) 16:38, 21 December 2010 (UTC)
- I believe most of your concerns are addressed by the FAQ page. Mishlai (talk) 20:57, 21 December 2010 (UTC)
- As stated above, Wikipedia is not a forum for the discussion of the topic. We believe the article has given appropriate weight to both sides, as can be shown here:
- "The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring. Nevertheless, political and public debate continues."
- There is also a section of the article devoted to the controversy, giving appropriate weight to both sides.
- Wikipedia is not a forum and if you have an objection to Wikipedia policy, then this is not to place to give it. --Cornince (talk) 21:07, 21 December 2010 (UTC)
- Well, you are ignoring the point of my proposal. Again: There needs to be skeptical representation among those who have the ability to make changes to this article. Failure to do that violates WP:NPOV. Furthermore, calling the fact of skepticism in a scientific theory pseudoscience is insulting to those legitimate scientists who do not agree with your assumptions (and yes, there are plenty of them). Perhaps you would like your work to be called a conspiracy theory?
- Secondly, this page actually is, in fact, a forum for discussion for making changes to the article. That's what its for. If I attempt to make a change to the article without gaining consensus here first, then you would tell me to get consensus on the discussion page first. So, here I am doing it, and you say this isn't the forum for doing so. Can't have it both ways my friend.
- Thirdly, the FAQ page is nothing but a bunch of excuses for tossing out legitimate criticism of the content of the page. The entire page is written from the perspective of someone who has zero intention of ever considering an opposing thought. Citing an FAQ that is created for the obvious purpose of suppressing dissent is not legitimate.
- Finally, it is completely unreasonable to take the position that this one phrase at the end of the article is "giving appropriate weight to both sides". I'm sorry, but that is ridiculous. Again, please address the point of my criticism. And again, the point is a lack of diversity in the editorial process here. Mcoers (talk) 22:18, 21 December 2010 (UTC)
- My apologies. I meant to say that what you were wanting put in the article, as though it were equal in weight to the scientific consensus, fit under "plausible but currently unaccepted theories." --Cornince (talk) 22:30, 21 December 2010 (UTC)
- Which part(s) of the proposed paragraph are "plausible, but currently unaccepted theories"? What in that paragraph is factually inaccurate? Why, please be specific, should we not modify the current first paragraph to include this content? Mcoers (talk) 23:47, 21 December 2010 (UTC)
- My apologies. I meant to say that what you were wanting put in the article, as though it were equal in weight to the scientific consensus, fit under "plausible but currently unaccepted theories." --Cornince (talk) 22:30, 21 December 2010 (UTC)
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