Talk:Climate change: Difference between revisions
Sailsbystars (talk | contribs) →Emissions illustrations out of date: addendum |
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:::::::::Sure, sorry if I implied otherwise. [[User:Short Brigade Harvester Boris|Short Brigade Harvester Boris]] ([[User talk:Short Brigade Harvester Boris|talk]]) 01:23, 9 March 2011 (UTC) |
:::::::::Sure, sorry if I implied otherwise. [[User:Short Brigade Harvester Boris|Short Brigade Harvester Boris]] ([[User talk:Short Brigade Harvester Boris|talk]]) 01:23, 9 March 2011 (UTC) |
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::::::::::No apology needed, though I was misunderstood but seemingly the other way round.--[[User:IanOfNorwich|IanOfNorwich]] ([[User talk:IanOfNorwich|talk]]) 02:22, 9 March 2011 (UTC) |
::::::::::No apology needed, though I was misunderstood but seemingly the other way round.--[[User:IanOfNorwich|IanOfNorwich]] ([[User talk:IanOfNorwich|talk]]) 02:22, 9 March 2011 (UTC) |
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::: The revised version is worse than the original. "skepticism amongst the wider public remains" is misleading, as it suggests that it is only the general public who are skeptical, not scientists. In fact, many scientists are also skeptical. [[User:Poujeaux|Poujeaux]] ([[User talk:Poujeaux|talk]]) 09:27, 17 March 2011 (UTC) |
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== problems with the instrumental temperature record chart == |
== problems with the instrumental temperature record chart == |
Revision as of 09:28, 17 March 2011
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Frequently asked questions To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ. Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?
A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.[1]
Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?
A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."[2] Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?
A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,[3][4] including academically trained ones,[5][6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:
Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?
A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?
A5: Two reasons:
Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?
A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning.
In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2?
A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.
Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?
A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?
A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.[12]
More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?
A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.
While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:
Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?
A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?
A12: Measurements show that it has not.[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.
Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?
A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.[18] Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?
A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.
Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?
A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.
Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?
A16: No,
Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?
A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?
A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?
A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.
Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?
A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?
A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?
A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?
A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:[28]
Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?
A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References
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Index 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90 91, 92, 93, 94, 95 |
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Definition
In the first sentence, why is the term "Global Warming" defined using the phrase "since the mid-20th century"? That seems to be an arbitrary restriction on the definition with no reference given. Global warming has been happening for 12000 years (see e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_glaciation#Land-based_chronology_of_Quaternary_glacial_cycles). Has this definition been erroneously transferred from "anthropogenic global warming"? Or does Wikipedia make no distinction between cause and effect? Mrdavenport (talk) 19:44, 28 December 2010 (UTC)
- As per the article hat-note (before the first sentence), what you're looking for may be in Climate change or Paleoclimatology. --Nigelj (talk) 20:07, 28 December 2010 (UTC)
- Just so you know, the 'global warming' that has been happening for the last 12000 years was us comming out of an ice age. In other words, that doesn't really count because it would have happened anyway. The point is that it should have slowed down, and it hasn't. If it hadn't been for human intervention in the last couple of centuries, the climate would have stablised. Just because to things have the same effect doesn't mean they are the same. 81.187.148.35 (talk) 12:37, 25 January 2011 (UTC)
- that doesn't really count because it would have happened anyway.... so why's this article called global warming when no one's ever proved it isn't natural variation and would happen anyway? Isonomia (talk) 18:57, 3 February 2011 (UTC)
- 12,000 years....it's been cooling for the last 8,000 years now.[1] Kauffner (talk) 02:15, 3 February 2011 (UTC)
- Kauffner-Where on the Vostok graph does it show "cooling for the last 8,000 years"? --CurtisSwain (talk) 05:05, 3 February 2011 (UTC)
- Kauffner is right; there has been a slow decrease in reconstructed temps since the Holocene climatic optimum. Mrdavenport: the last glacial maximum is typically given as 21 ka and the hatnote on this article should tell you how WP uses the phrase (in order to free up "climate change" for the more general). To all - let's move on, as this doesn't seem to have anything to do with improving this article. Awickert (talk) 05:30, 3 February 2011 (UTC)
"Most scientists" should be changed to "an overwhelming majority of scientists" as cited source states. ("Most" could mean as little as 51 percent the cited source specifically states "overwhelming majority" and goes into details about the number of peer reviewed studies etc. Improves (talk) 18:27, 27 February 2011 (UTC)improves
Misleading graphs
The two headline graphs on the page - 'global temperatures' and 'surface and satellite temperatures' - are both somewhat misleading, and more suitable for advocacy than NPOV.
Aside from the widespread criticism of the GISS temperature record - others are more widely accepted by both skeptics and proponents - the first graph should be clearly labelled as anomalies, not temperatures. There has been (RS) criticism that it is (perhaps deliberately, probably subconsciously) chosen and presented in such a way as to create a link between the idea 'global temperature' and a graph spiking sharply upwards - although I can't find the source for that assertion right now, and it's probably not worth taking into account. Still, it should at least be properly titled.
The second graph is simply a puff-piece. Why is the trend measured over the period since Jan 1982, which just happens to start at the bottom of a trough? There's an interesting blink-graph I've seen somewhere which cycles through a number of different trend-lines fitted to the same data over different periods. If someone can track that down, it might be a good neutral piece to use.
I'm loathe to remove the graphs without any replacements ready, but they're not great as they are. The first is better than the second, but really neither is great. 94.170.107.247 (talk) 01:38, 12 February 2011 (UTC)Dave
- Dave, before we begin, you need to realize that your claims holds no weight until it has been reliably sourced. Verifiability is a Wikipedia policy. On scientific articles such as this, academic and peer-reviewed publications are expected. I hope you appreciate that an assertion does not determine what goes into the article, but a sourced claim, and your sourced claim will be compared against those found on the image's file description. With this said, let's see your sources. --Tony 155.99.230.205 (talk) 07:06, 12 February 2011 (UTC)
- Tony, on what basis are you claiming this article is "scientific"? The name clearly isn't scientific, it is the popular name of a political campaign. Global warming is no more scientific than "save the penguins". Yes you can draw graph after graph after graph and claim that the numbers of penguins is basically science, but anyone can see that you'd at least give it a scientific sounding name like AGW. To put in bluntly, this article is about global warming, it is not about global warming science, because if it was, that is the name it would have.85.211.192.249 (talk) 16:07, 15 February 2011 (UTC)
- @85.211, This article is a parent article which covers the entire climate change topic, including an entire field of scientific inquiry. I imagine that's what Tony means by "scientific", and if so, he would be correct. I can't address your particular concerns above until I have reliable sources to compare, so tracking those down would be useful for this discussion. All the best, — Jess· Δ♥ 17:25, 15 February 2011 (UTC)
- The reason Dragons Filght chose the period he did for the trend is indicated in the description of the file [2]. Personally, despite those reasons, I'd prefer to see the trend calculated for the whole Dec 1978 to present and have asked him on his talk page to do so, if he updates the graph.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 01:53, 9 March 2011 (UTC)
problems with FAQ
I'm going to bring up issues about the FAQ here before I go and change anything. First of all, the FAQ states that an anti-global-warming petition uses the names of imaginary characters like "Perry Mason." However, there really is a Perry Mason, Ph.D -- he's a chemist in Texas. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition and (with photo) Perry Mason's university bio page — Preceding unsigned comment added by Other Choices (talk • contribs) 01:06, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- Stupid question, why is there an obvious BLP violation in the FAQ? The Resident Anthropologist (talk) 01:21, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- I don't see an obvious BLP violation. If you're referring to the "Perry Mason" bit, that was hardly obvious. Anyway I've fixed it (as you could have done yourself if that was the item of concern). Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:56, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- I couldnt figure out how to edit them. Are they transcluded from somewhere? The Resident Anthropologist (talk) 02:00, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- Yeah, it's kind of confusing -- took a couple of tries to figure it out, and I'm a "regular" here. You click on the "faq page" link at the left of the bar (not the ? mark), then you can edit the FAQ page like any other. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:44, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- I couldnt figure out how to edit them. Are they transcluded from somewhere? The Resident Anthropologist (talk) 02:00, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- I don't see an obvious BLP violation. If you're referring to the "Perry Mason" bit, that was hardly obvious. Anyway I've fixed it (as you could have done yourself if that was the item of concern). Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:56, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
Interesting, and I think it gets a little stranger. Turns out people are adding fake names,[3] which makes it difficult discern those real people who happen to share the names of famous personalities.[4] I think the second bullet in FAQ 2 should say:
“ | Some people listed are fake added by pranksters, while others are legitimate who happens to share the same name with a famous individual that may appear to be a fake. Arthur Robinson, a physical chemist who circulated the petition, stated "When we're getting thousands of signatures there's no way of filtering out a fake."[5] | ” |
But Boris has already fixed it, and I'm fine with whatever. What do you guys think? --CaC 155.99.231.35 (talk) 02:08, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- I think that would be fine. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:46, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
Here's one that's a bit more complicated: George Waldenberger and his demand to be taken off Senator Inhofe's list of skeptical scientists. The way the FAQ is currently worded gives the impression that Waldenberger is falsely being labeled a skeptic. But the actual Senate report provides a direct quote from Waldenburger as follows:
“ | "Well, I went to school at UCLA, a
big climate school. And it isn't really an issue as to if the global climate has been warming," Waldenberger said on April 11, 2007. "It has over the past 40 years. The question is what type of role do we take in that warming. Is it all natural fluctuations or are the increased concentrations of carbon dioxide part of this? And that's a subject that's up in the air," Waldenberger explained. |
” |
Perhaps, if Waldenberger is to be mentioned, we should refer to what he actually said, which is the reason for his continued inclusion in the report despite his demand to be removed. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Other Choices (talk • contribs) 03:19, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- It's hard to know when to stop. We could go further and note that George Waldenberger is a TV weathercaster, not a practicing scientist as implied by Inhofe's list. I think Waldenberger's personal statement is adequate without doing our own analysis of the situation. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:33, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- Perhaps I should clarify my point about Waldenberger, which also applies to Steve Rayner (not Rainer; I'd correct it if I could figure out how). The FAQ as currently written gives the impression that Waldenberger and Rayner are NOT skeptical about global warming, and that their inclusion on the list is inappropriate. My point, and I ask other editors to share their opinions, is that both of these points are debatable:
- --Inhofe's list quotes the words of Waldenberger and Rayner, so everybody can see what they said and wrote in public. As far as I know, neither one has retracted the public statements that led to their inclusion in the list.
- --Therefore, some people might reasonably conclude that their inclusion in this list is appropriate, and wikipedia shouldn't take sides concerning this question the way it is doing now.--Other Choices (talk) 07:06, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
- I've amended the text so that it says the people in question "say they aren't skeptical." This avoids our taking sides, and is more consistent with Wikipedia's usual "he said, she said" approach. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:21, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
Red-linked "users"
The continuing nonsense from brand new accounts red-linked for lack of any user page content makes me wonder: would it be useful to restrict editing from new "users" until 48 hours after user page content has been added? That might slow down the nonsense, and even give us a chance to get ahead of it. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:05, 24 February 2011 (UTC)
- Thats something you would have to propose to the community at WP:VP/PR. The Resident Anthropologist (talk) 21:09, 24 February 2011 (UTC)
- It would be ineffective, as if the sockmaster's behavior is identified, he simply changes his behavior so he no longer fits the criteria. Sailsbystars (talk) 22:06, 24 February 2011 (UTC)
- I think the community at large is not so closely impacted, is less interested. I think it would have some effectiveness, because a requirement to add anything on one's user page provides more opportunity to examine behavior. The extra work of adding something (which legitimate users do anyway) amounts to a significant increment of effort when creating multiple throw-away accounts. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:58, 25 February 2011 (UTC)
- It wouldn't slow him down. In fact he went through a phase of trivially bluelinking his user and talk pages. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:13, 25 February 2011 (UTC)
- We used to have a crack team of sock-spotters here, and more recently there have been a few delays in identifying some of them. What we need to do may be to hang a bit looser, and not feel the need to rise to every bait laid on the talk page, en masse, within minutes, time after time. On most occasions, if the article isn't compromised, nothing is lost by leaving the odd assertion unchallenged here for a few hours. It makes it less fun for those who come here for their entertainment, and sensible discussions will still proceed at a slower pace. --Nigelj (talk) 23:55, 25 February 2011 (UTC)
- Oh. Possibly a trivial bluelink is an insufficient indicator. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:49, 26 February 2011 (UTC)
- Raymond has a good point. Keni Rodgers (talk) 06:30, 26 February 2011 (UTC)
- Oh. Possibly a trivial bluelink is an insufficient indicator. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:49, 26 February 2011 (UTC)
- We used to have a crack team of sock-spotters here, and more recently there have been a few delays in identifying some of them. What we need to do may be to hang a bit looser, and not feel the need to rise to every bait laid on the talk page, en masse, within minutes, time after time. On most occasions, if the article isn't compromised, nothing is lost by leaving the odd assertion unchallenged here for a few hours. It makes it less fun for those who come here for their entertainment, and sensible discussions will still proceed at a slower pace. --Nigelj (talk) 23:55, 25 February 2011 (UTC)
- It wouldn't slow him down. In fact he went through a phase of trivially bluelinking his user and talk pages. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:13, 25 February 2011 (UTC)
- I think the community at large is not so closely impacted, is less interested. I think it would have some effectiveness, because a requirement to add anything on one's user page provides more opportunity to examine behavior. The extra work of adding something (which legitimate users do anyway) amounts to a significant increment of effort when creating multiple throw-away accounts. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:58, 25 February 2011 (UTC)
Making any substantive decision on the basis of a redlinked userpage would be ineffective in handling this sophisticated and battle-hardened sock puppeteer. It would only present a very hostile face to newcomers--which is one of the problems of the handling of this topic that were raised by the arbitration committee last Autumn.
The idea of holding back from responding to controversial comments is very promising. A genuine newcomer wouldn't expect an instant response, but a talk page pile-on is the kind of thing that gratifies trolls. Tasty monster (=TS ) 09:05, 26 February 2011 (UTC)
- Or we could just ignore red-linked users? - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:51, 26 February 2011 (UTC)
Validity of science vs. cost of mitigation
Sailbystars' [edit] changes the description of the "ongoing ... debate" from "validity of the science" to "whether the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction'". These are very different issues. I haven't reverted because both statements have some validity, but this change is something that ought to be discussed before being unilaterally made. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:59, 27 February 2011 (UTC)
- Oh, I welcome discussion. My edit was made under WP:BRD and I'm open to the R to the original version. Let's look at a few versions of that sentence that we had:
- The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring.[8][9][10][B] Nevertheless, political and public debate continues. (original)
- The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring.[8][9][10][B] Since consensus does not constitute proof, the political and public debate continues.(Amazeroth v. 1)
- While the scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring[8][9][10][B], the political and public debate about the theory continues. (Amazeroth v.2)
- While the scientific consensus is that human activity contributes significantly to global warming[8][9][10][B], there is an ongoing political and public debate over the validity of the science. (Pseudo-Richard)
- While the scientific consensus is that human activity contributes significantly to global warming[8][9][10][B], there is an ongoing political and public debate over whether the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction. (my version)
- Option 1 is acceptable, but vague and somewhat leaves the impression that public debate is without merit
- Option 2 is the "it's only a theory" trope commonly used to downplay the strength of a science conclusion
- Option 3 is not too bad. I still dislike the use of the word "theory" since scientists and the public use the word in different ways
- Option 4 is a gross insult to scientists everywhere.
- Option 5 takes on a bit of a different meaning, and perhaps a bit of wishful thinking on my part. Science can and is being debated by qualified scientists in the literature. In my idealized vision of the world, science has presented several scenarios, the likelihood and error bars of each scenario, and the consequences of each one. The debate in the public sphere should not be about the science, but whether action should be taken. Unfortunately, you have people like Sen. Inhofe and Lord Monckton who think that somehow they are smarter than thousands of scientists who have dedicated their careers to understanding this stuff, and I don't how how we can indicate in the article that this is a sensitive issue without insulting the work of those scientists or the intelligence and honor of such politicians. Thoughts? Sailsbystars (talk) 21:39, 27 February 2011 (UTC)
- Just a quick side note, I had some discussion with Amazeroth on his or her talk page earlier today. Sailsbystars (talk) 21:50, 27 February 2011 (UTC)
- Any thoughts? 1. Science is based on facts, on evidence, and as soon as you start talking about consensus you are talking about something that has no place in a scientific article. 2. There was also an "overwhelming consensus" on WMD - all the experts agreed, the evidence was compelling, unequivocal etc. etc. ... and likewise it just lacked that one essential ingredient: evidence! 85.211.230.148 (talk) 01:07, 28 February 2011 (UTC)
- Another red herring, and a popular misunderstanding. 1) Science is entirely about consensus, even as to what is accepted as "fact". 2) The "overwhelming evidence" for WMD had nothing to do with science, or even real evidence; it was the ideologically driven interpretation of political appointees. Which is the same source of the "controversy" here. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:00, 28 February 2011 (UTC)
- Sorry, but that is horsepoo. If science were about consensus we wouldn't need schools nor universities, we could just all agree on something to be true. Heck, I wouldn't even need to prove the Pythagorean Theorem to my professor anymore, I would just have everyone in the classroom vote for me (so much for keeping political ideology out of science, hmmm?). --Amazeroth (talk) 23:09, 28 February 2011 (UTC)
- Another red herring, and a popular misunderstanding. 1) Science is entirely about consensus, even as to what is accepted as "fact". 2) The "overwhelming evidence" for WMD had nothing to do with science, or even real evidence; it was the ideologically driven interpretation of political appointees. Which is the same source of the "controversy" here. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:00, 28 February 2011 (UTC)
- Any thoughts? 1. Science is based on facts, on evidence, and as soon as you start talking about consensus you are talking about something that has no place in a scientific article. 2. There was also an "overwhelming consensus" on WMD - all the experts agreed, the evidence was compelling, unequivocal etc. etc. ... and likewise it just lacked that one essential ingredient: evidence! 85.211.230.148 (talk) 01:07, 28 February 2011 (UTC)
- As I said earlier on my (his!) discussion page: I am for option 3. There is nothing wrong with calling an apple an apple or a theory a theory. One can always just link to theory (or its relevant section). But it is wrong to imply that the public and political debate is just about mitigation, because it is not, it is about the whole theory – otherwise this article wouldn't need to be protected, right? ;-)
- I doubt it's an editors job to protect people from certain beliefs or disbeliefs, or to advance or hinder certain things. Calling a theory a theory will not sway those who believe in global warming, nor those who do not believe in it, to either side. At some point the most one can do is to give it ones best shot and wait for truth to assert itself (it always has and always will). And if it causes someone to investigate what a theory actually is, all the better! One more brain for science. --Amazeroth (talk) 23:09, 28 February 2011 (UTC)
- I don't agree with Amazeroth's reasoning of calling it a theory. GW is both theory and data. For example, temperature is measurable; so are energy flux and atmospheric composition. Concluding that the increase in temperature, on the other hand, can be explained by the release of greenhouse gases is theory. The public and political debate do discuss the scientific theory and data, they may be wrong, but it is a debate nevertheless. I prefer the original, Option 1, since Sailsbystars asked.
The scientific consensus isn't only about AGW. It basically summed up in the second and third sentence in the first paragraph. I think it should be moved there, rather than repeated in the third paragraph, which should really focused on the public perception and politics. --Tony 155.99.231.12 (talk) 04:00, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
- I don't agree with Amazeroth's reasoning of calling it a theory. GW is both theory and data. For example, temperature is measurable; so are energy flux and atmospheric composition. Concluding that the increase in temperature, on the other hand, can be explained by the release of greenhouse gases is theory. The public and political debate do discuss the scientific theory and data, they may be wrong, but it is a debate nevertheless. I prefer the original, Option 1, since Sailsbystars asked.
- I don't think option 5 should stand. If the first part of the sentence read "While the scientific consensus is that the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction" then it would make sense to contrast that with the general public consensus on that issue - it does not. How about a less woolly version of option 1 above:
- The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring.[8][9][10][B] Nevertheless, skepticism amongst the wider public remains.
- --IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:10, 8 March 2011 (UTC)
- "While the scientific consensus is that the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction" is not an appropriate construction. Assessing the costs of mitigation relative to the business-as-usual scenario is an economic and policy issue, not a scientific one. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:30, 8 March 2011 (UTC)
- Option 1, or perhaps IanOfNorwich's 'less woolly' version of it above are the only verifiable statements. In the current version (i.e. 5), if "human activity contributes significantly to global warming", what are the other significant contributory factors that have global scientific agreement? And where are they either referenced or discussed in the article? That construct is just unfounded FUD and Teach the Controversy weasel wording. Speaking of global, I would alter IoN's 'less woolly' statement by adding "especially in the US" on the end, but maybe that's just me. --Nigelj (talk) 20:02, 8 March 2011 (UTC)
- The original version or Ian's "less wolly" version are both fine. My alternate version was mainly to provoke thoughtful discussion on alternate phrasing to address amazeroth's concerns, which it has (for the most part) and I'm not overly attached to it. Sailsbystars (talk) 20:17, 8 March 2011 (UTC)
- I've interpreted that as sufficient (non scientific) consensus, for now at least, and made the edit. @Short Brigade Harvester Boris - I agree; was for illustrative purposes only. I've left out Nigelj's addition as I've met a few fairly avid skeptics here in the UK too, I'm certainly a skeptic myself.
- --IanOfNorwich (talk) 00:33, 9 March 2011 (UTC)
- Sure, sorry if I implied otherwise. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:23, 9 March 2011 (UTC)
- No apology needed, though I was misunderstood but seemingly the other way round.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 02:22, 9 March 2011 (UTC)
- Sure, sorry if I implied otherwise. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:23, 9 March 2011 (UTC)
- The original version or Ian's "less wolly" version are both fine. My alternate version was mainly to provoke thoughtful discussion on alternate phrasing to address amazeroth's concerns, which it has (for the most part) and I'm not overly attached to it. Sailsbystars (talk) 20:17, 8 March 2011 (UTC)
- Option 1, or perhaps IanOfNorwich's 'less woolly' version of it above are the only verifiable statements. In the current version (i.e. 5), if "human activity contributes significantly to global warming", what are the other significant contributory factors that have global scientific agreement? And where are they either referenced or discussed in the article? That construct is just unfounded FUD and Teach the Controversy weasel wording. Speaking of global, I would alter IoN's 'less woolly' statement by adding "especially in the US" on the end, but maybe that's just me. --Nigelj (talk) 20:02, 8 March 2011 (UTC)
- "While the scientific consensus is that the costs of mitigation outweigh the risks of inaction" is not an appropriate construction. Assessing the costs of mitigation relative to the business-as-usual scenario is an economic and policy issue, not a scientific one. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:30, 8 March 2011 (UTC)
- The revised version is worse than the original. "skepticism amongst the wider public remains" is misleading, as it suggests that it is only the general public who are skeptical, not scientists. In fact, many scientists are also skeptical. Poujeaux (talk) 09:27, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
problems with the instrumental temperature record chart
for the last six years, this article has used Dragons flight's graph of the instrumental temperature record, using a zero baseline of the interval 1961-1990. this showed the current maximum anomaly as about .5 deg C above the baseline through 2009.
now we have a new graph, using a zero baseline interval of 1951-1980, which effectively pushes the maximum anomaly to now exceed .8 deg C above baseline for 2010 (while also pushing the max values through 2009 to above .7 deg C)
why? what's the rationale for changing the baseline and pushing all the values higher? Anastrophe (talk) 23:39, 12 March 2011 (UTC)
- DF's graph, for a long time, was based on the HadCRUT numbers, which follow the IPCC standard of using 1961-1990 as the baseline. He maintained that even when moving to the GIS dataset (because the legal situation of using the CRU data was/is not completely clear - apparently in Britain you can copyright data, and the CRU license, while fine for scientific work, is not generous enough for Wikipedia). Someone else wanted to have the latest data in, and, instead of using the data to create a graph following the conventions used here and by the IPCC just grabbed the ready-made (PD) graph of the NASA web page. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:46, 12 March 2011 (UTC)
- An advantage of the GISS version is that it includes uncertainty estimates (the vertical green bars). Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:07, 13 March 2011 (UTC)
- i'd argue that consistency of data presentation would be more desireable. Anastrophe (talk) 01:40, 13 March 2011 (UTC)
- I agree that a consistent basis period is desirable. Also, normally, using the longest relevant period is desirable. (Relevant period in this case being post industrial revolution). Both basis periods are 30 years, the 1951-1980 basis period, however, gives a longer time for any signal (or lack thereof) to become apparent, so is, in that respect, preferable. On the other hand going too far back data quality may diminish but I don't think that too much of a problem here. Neither basis period can be used for direct with satellite data as the main sets only go back to Dec 1978 so 1961-1990 wouldn't give us universal consistency.
- --IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:21, 14 March 2011 (UTC)
- You seem to be mixing up the basis period with the period of record (unless I'm the one who's confused, which does happen fairly often). The basis period is arbitrary; choosing a different basis period simply produces a constant offset. That being the case I don't see how it "gives a longer time for any signal to become apparent." Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 22:11, 14 March 2011 (UTC)
I do not think that a different baseline (or consistency) is a problem as it doesn't affect the scientific accuracy of the graph; that said the main difference is not even the reference period (~ 0.05°C) but that the current graph use a different dataset(i.e. the met stations only, no SST)...while the previous one was the land-ocean temperature index: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.gif --Giorgiogp2 (talk) 21:12, 14 March 2011 (UTC)
- You're right -- I hadn't noticed that. We definitely should be using the land-ocean chart. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 22:08, 14 March 2011 (UTC)
- Well, on the subject of baseline, it does matter. While it would be accurate with any baseline an appropriately chosen one makes some information in the data easier to see. I agree, though, that including/excluding Sea Surface Temperature is a more substantial change. What are the bennefits of including Sea Surface Temperature? What information should the graph convey? I can see a case for concentrating on surface land temperatures, as that is where most of us live and where warming will have the greatest effect first. What's the reasoning for including SST?--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:57, 14 March 2011 (UTC)
- It's global warming after all, and oceans cover about 70% of the globe. It would be nice to have the global mean (land and SST) in the lede and then separate graphs for land and oceans later on, but that might be too much. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:36, 15 March 2011 (UTC)
- Also, thermal expansion of sea water and increased evaporation are both effects that have a very great effect on us (in the abstract) indeed. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 06:41, 15 March 2011 (UTC)
- Would certainly be nice (further into the article) to have separate graphs showing both sea and land temp or even better both as separate lines in one graph to contrast the two. To be clear, what we are talking about with SST is just that the surface temperature of the sea, as opposed to an atmospheric temperature on for the land. I guess that where the sea and air are in contact they are at the same temperature, though I don't know how far into the atmosphere that holds true? I take the point re sea temperature mattering (tangibly) but I'm still for keeping it simple and using land instrumental record where we have a choice for the lede, because that is easy to understand and all these sets tell the same tale in any case (though more pronounced on land?).
- Also, thermal expansion of sea water and increased evaporation are both effects that have a very great effect on us (in the abstract) indeed. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 06:41, 15 March 2011 (UTC)
- It's global warming after all, and oceans cover about 70% of the globe. It would be nice to have the global mean (land and SST) in the lede and then separate graphs for land and oceans later on, but that might be too much. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:36, 15 March 2011 (UTC)
- Well, on the subject of baseline, it does matter. While it would be accurate with any baseline an appropriately chosen one makes some information in the data easier to see. I agree, though, that including/excluding Sea Surface Temperature is a more substantial change. What are the bennefits of including Sea Surface Temperature? What information should the graph convey? I can see a case for concentrating on surface land temperatures, as that is where most of us live and where warming will have the greatest effect first. What's the reasoning for including SST?--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:57, 14 March 2011 (UTC)
- As it happens, it's up to DF or other existing graphs for the mo, until we can make some new ones. My first thought would be gnuplot and data from woodfortrees.org as far as that goes, is there an internal wiki page on the subject of graph making or something?
- --IanOfNorwich (talk) 10:25, 15 March 2011 (UTC)
- In case editors want to switch back to the land-ocean temperature index just upload a new version of the current graph at wikimedia commons using the land-ocean chart:
- http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly_1880-2010_(Fig.A).gif
- Separate graphs for land and ocean are already available at the more specific Instrumental temperature record article. Those graphs use NOAA data, giss do not provide an sst analisys(gistemp use HadSST2 and Oiv2 sst products) and the meteorological stations index is not really a land only temperature reconstruction, it is an approximation of the global temperature using only met. stations prepared at a time when gridded sst products were not yet available, that's why land anomalies are extrapolated over the ocean and anomalies are not weighted proportionate to the land area over the 3 latitude bands(90s/23.6s - 23.6s/23.6n - 23.6n/90n) but to the land-ocean area(~ 0.3 - 0.4 - 0.3). --Giorgiogp2 (talk) 18:43, 15 March 2011 (UTC)
- I'm only mildly against the change. The current concusses seems in favor so I'd just do it if I were you.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:16, 15 March 2011 (UTC)
Emissions illustrations out of date
The illustration of country emissions are ten years old. They're out of date and inaccurate - they should be replaced or cut. They're now better in a history article. Cheers! —Preceding unsigned comment added by 125.239.135.21 (talk) 01:15, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
- True. Can you find or create an updated figure? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:53, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
- The image's author is long gone. However, the image is based off of data from the main article. I've looked up the source, and in order to download the data you need to be registered. Registering shouldn't be hard, and all that needs to be done after that is to copy and past the data in CSV form into GunnMap or another provider. --CaC 155.99.231.77 (talk) 02:37, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
- Cool about the Gunn maps. I knew where to find the data, but not how to make the fancy-brand graphic with colors for each country. The data are available in the International Energy Agency reports which you can get without registering, e.g. [6] but it would be tedious to digitize the data (unless you're clever about extracting data from PDFs). Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:18, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
- I downloaded the data and am working on it now... Sailsbystars (talk) 04:19, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
- This may take a while... I can make a quick and dirty map with the gunn map tool, but it only outputs pngs and jpgs, whereas wikigraphs should use SVGs (and they don't allow for easy labeling....) I think I can do it well using python's basemap library, but it will take a bit of time.... a few caveats on the data: Looks like CO2 w/ land use is only available through 2006 and additional greenhouse gasses (e.g. CH4) are only available though 2005, so the map is only five years out of date from the best available data. Sailsbystars (talk) 04:37, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
- Cool about the Gunn maps. I knew where to find the data, but not how to make the fancy-brand graphic with colors for each country. The data are available in the International Energy Agency reports which you can get without registering, e.g. [6] but it would be tedious to digitize the data (unless you're clever about extracting data from PDFs). Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:18, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
- The image's author is long gone. However, the image is based off of data from the main article. I've looked up the source, and in order to download the data you need to be registered. Registering shouldn't be hard, and all that needs to be done after that is to copy and past the data in CSV form into GunnMap or another provider. --CaC 155.99.231.77 (talk) 02:37, 17 March 2011 (UTC)
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