Jump to content

2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum: Difference between revisions

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Browse history interactively
← Previous editNext edit →
Content deleted Content added
VisualWikitext
Arsenalfan24 (talk | contribs)
2,975 edits
No edit summary
JulesVerne (talk | contribs)
366 edits
No edit summary
Line 61: Line 61:


==Criticism of the proposal to withdraw==
==Criticism of the proposal to withdraw==
Should the United Kingdom withdraw from the European Union but remain in the [[European Economic Area]], Britain would have to continue to abide by approximately [[European Union Law]] but would not be able to voice an opinion on it. Currently this is what is done by [[Norway]], [[Iceland]] and [[Liechtenstein]].
Should the United Kingdom withdraw from the European Union but remain in the [[European Economic Area]] or the [[European Free Trade Area]], Britain would no longer have to implement most aspects of [[European Union Law]] but would still be able to frame trade policy on a fair footing with the rest of Europe. There is considerable misunderstanding of this issue amongst the British public. Currently this situation is what is done by [[Norway]], [[Iceland]] and [[Liechtenstein]], which are not EU members, but who are active and committed EFTA members, and who have as much a role in determining EFTA (and thus 'European') trade policy as EU members. EFTA members, for example, will participate in the EU-led [[TAFTA]] in much the same way as the EU itself, without separate negotiations being needed.


Around 1.4 million British nationals have exercised their right to freedom of movement to live, work or study in the European Union according to the British government.<ref>[http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/41492 Stop mass immigration from Bulgarian and Romanians in 2014, when EU restrictions on immigration are relaxed. - e-petitions<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> British citizens are currently able to study in EEA countries at the same cost as charged to their own citizens: this arrangement applies equally between EU states. Were Britain to leave the [[European Union]] and the [[European Economic Area]], British citizens would lose these rights. The status of the [[Common Travel Area]] between a UK outside the EU and an [[Republic of Ireland|Ireland]] continuing as a member remains to be clarified.
Around 1.4 million British nationals have exercised their right to freedom of movement to live, work or study in the European Union according to the British government.<ref>[http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/41492 Stop mass immigration from Bulgarian and Romanians in 2014, when EU restrictions on immigration are relaxed. - e-petitions<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> British citizens are currently able to study in EEA countries at the same cost as charged to their own citizens: this arrangement applies equally between EU states. Were Britain to leave the [[European Union]] and the [[European Economic Area]], British citizens would lose these rights. The status of the [[Common Travel Area]] between a UK outside the EU and an [[Republic of Ireland|Ireland]] continuing as a member remains to be clarified.

Revision as of 09:42, 19 July 2013

United Kingdom withdrawal from the European Union is sought by eurosceptics who believe the United Kingdom would be better off outside the political and economic bloc. Though no member state has ever left the European Union, the UK's membership in its precursor, the European Economic Community, was put to a referendum in 1975, shortly after joining in 1973, which endorsed the continuation of their membership. Since 2010, opinion polls have consistently favoured a British withdrawal, with opposition peaking in November 2012 at 56% compared to 30% who wanted to remain.[1][2]

In January 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron promised a referendum on British membership of the European Union if the Conservative Party win a majority at the next general election.

Terminology

In mid-2012, the terms Brexit and Brixit were coined for the concept of the United Kingdom ceasing to be a member of the European Union. These slang terms are portmanteau words formed from Britain or British and exit, after Grexit (Greek exit).[3][4][5][6] The Centre for European Reform has been credited with the invention of the term Brexit,[7] though it was previously used by The British Resistance.[8] The term Brixit was coined by the Economist columnist Bagehot,[5] in the article A Brixit looms, dated 21 June 2012.[9]

Precedents

No member state has ever left the European Union, although 3 former territories of EU member states have withdrawn from the EU (or its predecessors): Algeria (1962), Greenland (1985) and Saint Barthélemy (2012) with the latter two becoming Overseas Countries and Territories of the European Union.

Procedure

Before the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force on 1 December 2009, no provision in the treaties or law of the European Union outlined the ability of a member state to voluntarily withdraw from the EU.[10]

The Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe provided that any member could voluntarily leave the Union of its own accord[11] but this treaty was never ratified. However the voluntary withdrawal clause survived into the Lisbon Treaty.

This new provision formalised the procedure by stating that a member state may notify the European Council that it wishes to withdraw, upon which withdrawal negotiations begin. If no other agreement is reached the treaty ceases to apply to the withdrawing state two years after such notification.

Proposed referendum

In January 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron said that if elected in the 2015 General Election, a Conservative government would negotiate new agreements with the European Union and would then hold a referendum on whether to remain in or to leave the EU.[12] Political leaders in the EU rebuked the possibility of British renegotiation of its membership of the Union and publicly supported Britain's continued membership.[13] Public polls in France and Germany favoured a British exit.[13] The Obama administration has warned against a British exit from the European Union, arguing that it would reduce the British "voice" in the EU, which was not in the USA's interest.[14]

Cameron had previously rejected a referendum on Britain's EU membership, but suggested the possibility of a future referendum to ensure the UK's position within an evolving EU has "the full-hearted support of the British people".[15] The Labour Party say they do not support a referendum at the current time, but have not ruled it out for the future. The Liberal Democrats have said they do not support an in/out referendum because it is within Britain's interests to remain a member. The UK Independence Party, the British National Party and the Green Party all support a referendum.

Former chancellor of the exchequer and member of the House of Lords Nigel Lawson called for the UK to leave the EU in an article for The Times in May 2013.[16] He said the move "would be a wake-up call" to businesses, and would allow "great exporting opportunities to the developing world, especially Asia."[16] Prime Minister David Cameron has been facing calls from backbenchers to hold a referendum on EU membership before the 2015 General Election after the UK Independence Party's success in the 2013 county council elections.[17]

Private member's bill

In May 2013, the Conservative Party published a draft EU referendum bill and outlined their plans for renegotiation and then an in-out vote if returned to office in 2015.[18] The draft bill stated that the referendum must be held no later than 31 December 2017.[19][20][21]

The draft will be taken forward as a private member's bill by Conservative MP James Wharton.[22] The bill's first reading in the House of Commons was timed for 19 June 2013.[23] The prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party, David Cameron, was said by a spokesman to be "very pleased" and would ensure the bill was given "the full support of the Conservative Party".[24]

Petition campaign

In July 2010 Nikki Sinclaire (MEP) had launched a campaign for a referendum with the aim to collect 100,000 signatures calling for a referendum on the UK's continued membership in the European Union.[25] The Campaign's first roadshow was held in Stoke-on-Trent on 29 July 2010[26] and it visited over 50 towns and cities in the West Midlands. Alongside her weekly road shows, she created a magazine which by April 2012 was in its fourth issue.[27] The magazine has gathered cross party support. As of August 2011, the petition had attracted over 100,000 signatures.[28]

An electronic petition, set-up by the Daily Express, attracted more than 59,000 signatures from its creation in August 2011 to its end in August 2012.[29]

Business opinion

Car manufacturers Ford and BMW have warned Prime Minister David Cameron against an EU exit, insisting it would be "devastating" for the British economy.[30]

A survey commissioned by Close Brothers Finance in January 2013, found that 40 per cent of small business favoured a withdrawal from the EU.[31] Of those surveyed, 45 per cent said they feared struggling European countries would "bring them down with them", whilst a further 39 per cent insisted our economy would be "better off".[31] More than a third of those surveyed said that they did not want to quit the EU, citing fears over "isolation" and a struggle to compete in a "global marketplace".[31]

Business lobby group the British Chambers of Commerce found that just 18 per cent of UK companies were in favour of entire withdrawal from the European Union.[32] Of the 4,387 companies surveyed in February—March 2013, they found that 33 per cent of businesses were in favour of withdrawal and negotiating a free-trade deal, whilst 60 per cent said a withdrawal could "harm their business".[32] A further 23 per cent said that further integration would be "beneficial" for their company.[32]

Labour for a Referendum

Main article: Labour for a Referendum

Labour for a Referendum (LfR) is a political campaign by members of the Labour Party that seeks a referendum in the United Kingdom on the European Union.[33] The movement was set up following a pledge by the Conservative Party to hold an in-out vote if re-elected in 2015.[33]

Let Britain Decide

Let Britain Decide is a political campaign by the Conservative Party that seeks a referendum on the UK's relationship with the European Union.[34] It was set up in June 2013 by party chairman Grant Shapps MP. The movement aims to force an in-out vote commitment on EU membership from all three major parties.

Exit plan competition

Following David Cameron's announcement of an EU referendum, British think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) announced a competition to find the best plan for a UK exit from the European Union, declaring that a departure is a 'real possibility' after the next election.[35] Those interested have been asked to submit a 2,000-word proposal by 16 September 2013, with the best 20 being asked to produce a more detailed version.[35] Nine judges – including former Chancellor of the Exchequer Lord Lawson – will then decide which entry is the most plausible.[35] The winning entry will be awarded 100,000 euros (£86,525), and will be announced in 2014.[35]

Criticism of the proposal to withdraw

Should the United Kingdom withdraw from the European Union but remain in the European Economic Area or the European Free Trade Area, Britain would no longer have to implement most aspects of European Union Law but would still be able to frame trade policy on a fair footing with the rest of Europe. There is considerable misunderstanding of this issue amongst the British public. Currently this situation is what is done by Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, which are not EU members, but who are active and committed EFTA members, and who have as much a role in determining EFTA (and thus 'European') trade policy as EU members. EFTA members, for example, will participate in the EU-led TAFTA in much the same way as the EU itself, without separate negotiations being needed.

Around 1.4 million British nationals have exercised their right to freedom of movement to live, work or study in the European Union according to the British government.[36] British citizens are currently able to study in EEA countries at the same cost as charged to their own citizens: this arrangement applies equally between EU states. Were Britain to leave the European Union and the European Economic Area, British citizens would lose these rights. The status of the Common Travel Area between a UK outside the EU and an Ireland continuing as a member remains to be clarified.

According to the British government the European single market brings between £30 billion to £90 billion into the British economy,[37] it is unknown if Britain could negotiate a free trade agreement. The European trade commissioner Karel de Gucht told the BBC that Europe is "not a free lunch".[38]

Some of those in favour of a British withdrawal say Britain could try to create a Commonwealth Free Trade Area to make up money lost by leaving the single market.[39] As of May 2013, no commonwealth country has indicated any interest in this idea. It is often noted that Britain trades more with Ireland than with all the leading developing counties combined (only one of which, India, is in the Commonwealth).[40] Some of those opposed to a British withdrawal note that the British economy is most similar to other European economies as opposed to those in other countries.[40]

International reaction

In response to David Cameron's January 2013 speech on the EU, the Obama administration expressed the belief that the United Kingdom is stronger in the European Union, and the EU is stronger through having British membership,[41] while the Chinese and Indian government have made no official response to the possibility of an in-out referendum for the UK's continued membership.[41] The Swedish foreign minister, Anders Borg, expressed that this was a serious matter, and that for Sweden the issue raised some concerns and could reorient the EU.[42] The German Defence Minister, Thomas de Maiziere, claimed that it would diminish British influence in NATO,[43] while French President Francois Hollande, in a speech to the European Parliament, said there could be no a la carte option for European membership.[44]

Opinion polling

2010

Date(s) conducted Leave Stay Unsure Sample Held by Notes
8–9 September 47% 33% 19% Unknown YouGov/The Sun

2011

Date(s) conducted Leave Stay Unsure Sample Held by Notes
7–8 August 52% 30% 19% Unknown YouGov/The Sun
8–9 December 44% 35% 20% Unknown YouGov/The Sun
15–16 December 41% 41% 19% Unknown YouGov/The Sun

2012

Date(s) conducted Leave Stay Unsure Sample Held by Notes
13–15 November 56% 30% 14% 1,957 Opinium/Observer Northern Ireland not sampled
27–28 November 51% 30% 19% Unknown YouGov/The Sun

2013

Date(s) conducted Leave Stay Unsure Sample Held by Notes
2–3 January 46% 31% 22% Unknown YouGov/The Sun
6 January 54% 36% 10% 1,002 Survation/Mail on Sunday
10–11 January 42% 36% 21% 1,995 YouGov/Sunday Times Northern Ireland not sampled
17–18 January 34% 40% 25% 1,912 YouGov/Sunday Times Northern Ireland not sampled
20–21 January 40% 37% 24% Unknown YouGov/The Sun
23 January 40% 37% 23% 2,000 Populus/The Times
24–25 January 39% 37% 24% 1,943 YouGov/Sunday Times
25 January 50% 36% 16% 1,005 Survation/Mail on Sunday Northern Ireland not sampled
29 Jan – 6 Feb 50% 33% 17% 2,114 Financial Times/Harris
5 February 41% 30% 22% 1,237 TNS BMRB
17–18 February 41% 38% 21% 1,713 YouGov/The Sun
25–26 March 44% 33% 24% 2,047 YouGov/The Sun
4–27 March 46% 46% 8% 1,012 Pew Research Center
7–8 April 43% 36% 21% 1,765 YouGov/The Sun
7 May 46% 35% 20% 719 YouGov/The Times
9–10 May 47% 30% 23% 1,945 YouGov/The Sun
10–12 May 43% 40% 17% 1,001 ICM/The Guardian
12–13 May 44% 34% 22% 1,748 YouGov/The Sun
14–15 May 43% 37% 19% 1,886 YouGov/The Sun
15–16 May 46% 30% 24% 2,017 ICM/The Telegraph
15–16 May 46% 24% 30% 2,017 ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent
16–17 May 45% 36% 19% 1,809 YouGov/Sunday Times
17–18 May 50% 36% 14% 1,000 Survation/Mail on Sunday
28–29 May 43% 35% 23% 1,915 YouGov/The Sun
1–3 June 51% 49% 0% 1,566 Survation/Sky News
9–10 June 43% 35% 23% 1,836 YouGov/Sunday Times
23–24 June 45% 31% 24% 1,694 YouGov/The Sun
4–5 July 46% 36% 18% 1,022 YouGov/Channel 5

Other opinion polling on withdrawal

  • Denmark Denmark – A poll commissioned in January 2013 following David Cameron's EU referendum speech found that 52% of Danes would still want the country to stay within the EU even if the UK opted to withdraw.[45] However, 47% said they would like the government to attempt to renegotiate the terms of their membership.[45]
  • France France – A poll conducted by French daily newspaper Le Parisien found that 52% of French voters were in favour of the UK withdrawing from the EU.[46] Of the 1,136 people polled, in conjunction with French research agency BVA in January 2013, 48% said they would rather the UK remained inside the EU.[47]
  • Germany Germany – A study carried out by Internationale Politik found 64% of Germans favoured Britain remaining inside the EU – with just 36% saying they favoured an exit.[48] The biggest support for retaining the union with the UK was with the younger generation with 69% of 18–25 year-olds saying they wanted the UK to stay.[48] Amongst the German political parties, the Green Party remained most favourable at 85%.[48]
  • Republic of Ireland Ireland – Ireland remains largely hostile to a British exit from the EU.[49] A Red C poll, commissioned by European Movement Ireland in January 2013, found most Irish people would opt for Ireland to remain inside the EU – 66% – even if the UK decided to leave.[49] Just 29% of those asked said that Ireland should leave if the UK does.[49]
  • Scotland Scotland – A poll conducted by Ipsos-MORI in February 2013 shows that a majority of Scots would opt for the UK to stay in the EU – 53% say they would vote to remain whereas 34% said they would vote to leave.[50] However, over half of Scots (58%), believe there should be a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU.[50]
  • Wales Wales – A poll conducted by WalesOnline in June 2013 found that 37% of people in Wales would opt to withdraw from the European Union whereas 29% said they would vote to stay in. More than one in five (21%), said they would not vote with 14% saying they don't know how they would vote.[51] Of the 1,015 people surveyed between 14 and 25 June, the poll found that support for leaving was greatest in the Valley, Anglesey, and fewest in south-west Wales. The only age group to show a majority of those wishing to stay in were between 18 and 25.[51]

See also

References

  1. ^ "56% of Britons would vote to quit EU in referendum, poll finds". The Observer. Retrieved 14 July 2013.
  2. ^ http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nqf0ycudkh/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Europe-220113.pdf
  3. ^ Fraser, Douglas (10 August 2012). "The Great British Brexit". BBC News Scotland. Glasgow: BBC. Retrieved 24 November 2012.
  4. ^ Dixon, Hugo (11 November 2012). "British Companies Should Beware E.U. Split". The New York Times. New York: The New York Times Company. Retrieved 24 November 2012.
  5. ^ a b Masa Serdarevic (27 June 2012). "Towards a Brixit". FT Alphaville. The Financial Times. Retrieved 24 November 2012. Cite error: The named reference "Alphaville" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  6. ^ "European press's weary resignation to EU summit failure". BBC. 24 November 2012. Retrieved 24 November 2012.
  7. ^ Stephens, Philip (18 October 2012). "Brexit: Europe loses patience with London". The Financial Times. London: The Financial Times Ltd. Retrieved 24 November 2012.
  8. ^ Tim Haydon (29 June 2012). "Gotterdammerung and Brexit. Britain Exiting the EU?". The British Resistance. Retrieved 24 November 2012.
  9. ^ Bagehot (21 June 2012). "A Brixit looms". Bagehot's Notebook. The Economist. Retrieved 24 November 2012.
  10. ^ Athanassiou, Phoebus (December 2009). "Withdrawal and Expulsion from the EU and EMU: Some Reflections" (PDF). Legal Working Paper Series (10). European Central Bank: 9. ISSN 1830-2696. Retrieved 19 February 2013.
  11. ^ Article I-60 of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe
  12. ^ "David Cameron pledges EU referendum if Conservatives win next election". Raidió Teilifís Éireann. 24 January 2013. Retrieved 19 February 2013.
  13. ^ a b EU leaders warn Cameron over membership referendum, BBC, 23 January 2013
  14. ^ "US alarm bells over Cameron's EU speech". British Broadcasting Corporation. 23 January 2013.
  15. ^ "PM's EU poll move 'jam tomorrow'". Associated Press. Retrieved 27 January 2013.
  16. ^ a b BBC News - Ex-chancellor Lord Lawson calls for UK to exit EU
  17. ^ "Cameron under pressure to hold EU referendum before next election". The Irish Times. 6 May 2013. Retrieved 14 July 2013.
  18. ^ "David Cameron: EU referendum bill shows only Tories listen". Retrieved 14 July 2013.
  19. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/14_05_13_draft_referendum.pdf
  20. ^ Draft European Union (Referendum) Bill [1]. Withdrawal from the European Union is a right of Member states under TEU Article 50: "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."
  21. ^ Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union/Title VI: Final Provisions s:Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union/Title VI: Final Provisions#Article 50
  22. ^ Private Members' Bills
  23. ^ Presentation of Bills
  24. ^ EU referendum: Tory MP will take forward bill, BBC 16 May 2013
  25. ^ "Solihull MEP Nikki Sinclaire finds a ready audience for EU referendum campaign". Solihull News. 18 May 2012. Retrieved 3 July 2012.
  26. ^ Elizabeth Glinka (29 July 2010). "MEP Nikki Sinclaire holds roadshow in Stoke-on-Trent". BBC News. Retrieved 3 July 2012.
  27. ^ Issue 4 of the Campaign for a Referendum Magazine
  28. ^ "'Majority' of UK citizens want a say on EU membership". theparliament.com. 9 August 2011. Retrieved 3 July 2012.
  29. ^ "Britain wants referendum to leave EU". Retrieved 19 February 2013.
  30. ^ "Ford and BMW warn against UK exit from EU as David Cameron readies historic speech". Telegraph.
  31. ^ a b c "Nearly half of small business owners want to leave the European Union". Daily Mail. Retrieved 14 July 2013.
  32. ^ a b c Almost One in Five U.K. Companies Favor Leaving EU - Businessweek
  33. ^ a b Labour for a Referendum
  34. ^ Let Britain Decide
  35. ^ a b c d http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23322122
  36. ^ Stop mass immigration from Bulgarian and Romanians in 2014, when EU restrictions on immigration are relaxed. - e-petitions
  37. ^ European Commission in the UK – Euromyths and Letters to the Editor » Blog Archive » The UK and the EU budget – the FACTS
  38. ^ BBC News - Karel de Gucht: UK's EU membership 'not a free lunch'
  39. ^ The Commonwealth: Our alternative future by Paul Nuttall :: UKIP North West
  40. ^ a b European Movement UK: Britain and the EU
  41. ^ a b MacAskill, Ewen; Jonathan Kalman; Jason Burke (23 January 2013). "Obama administration reiterates belief UK is stronger within EU". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 May 2013.
  42. ^ Milne, Richard (27 February 2013). "Cameron faces cool Nordic reception". Financial Times. Retrieved 11 May 2013.
  43. ^ "Germany warns UK over leaving EU". The Daily Express. 23 April 2013. Retrieved 11 May 2013.
  44. ^ Hewitt, Gavin (5 February 2013). "France's Hollande rejects 'a la carte' attitude to EU". BBC News. Retrieved 11 May 2013.
  45. ^ a b EU-Denmark: ‘Danes want to stay in the EU’ | Presseurop.eu: European news, cartoons and press reviews
  46. ^ "Les Français favorables à une sortie de la Grande-Bretagne de l'UE" (in French). 26 January 2013. Retrieved 19 February 2013.
  47. ^ Most French People Want 'Les Rosbifs' to Leave EU
  48. ^ a b c Most Germans want Britain to stay in EU - The Local
  49. ^ a b c European Movement: Two-thirds of Irish People Would Choose to Stay in the EU Even if the UK Leaves
  50. ^ a b Ipsos MORI | Poll | Scots want EU referendum but would vote to stay in
  51. ^ a b EU referendum: More people in Wales want to leave the European Union than stay in - Wales Online
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum&oldid=564901248"