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Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election: Difference between revisions

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Pre-campaign period: Corrections to Forum poll
added forum prefered pm numbers
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! style="background-color:{{Canadian party colour|CA|Green}}; width:70px" align="center"| '''[[Elizabeth May]]'''
! style="background-color:{{Canadian party colour|CA|Green}}; width:70px" align="center"| '''[[Elizabeth May]]'''
! style="width:60px" class="unsortable"|'''Margin of Error'''{{ref label|MOE|1|1}}
! style="width:60px" class="unsortable"|'''Margin of Error'''{{ref label|MOE|1|1}}
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| [[Forum Research]] || {{dts|July 7, 2015}} || [http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2007%2008)%20Forum%20Research.pdf PDF] || 25 || {{Party shading/NDP (Canada)}}|'''27''' || 23 || 6 || ±3.0 pp
|-
|-
| [[Nanos Research]] || {{dts|July 3, 2015}} || [http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202015-07-03E.pdf PDF] || {{Party shading/Conservative (Canada)}}|'''27''' || {{Party shading/NDP (Canada)}} |'''27''' || 26 || 4 ||±3.1 pp
| [[Nanos Research]] || {{dts|July 3, 2015}} || [http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202015-07-03E.pdf PDF] || {{Party shading/Conservative (Canada)}}|'''27''' || {{Party shading/NDP (Canada)}} |'''27''' || 26 || 4 ||±3.1 pp

Revision as of 18:25, 10 July 2015

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted since the 2011 Canadian federal election and leading up to the 42nd Canadian federal election.

Graphical summary

Pre-campaign period

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. NDP Liberal BQ Green Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Forum Research July 7, 2015 PDF 32 32 26 5 3 ±3.0 pp 1,200 IVR
Abacus Data July 6, 2015 PDF 29 32 27 6 6 ±2.2 pp 2,000 online
Forum Research June 29, 2015 PDF 27 32 29 6 4 ±3.0 pp 1,221 IVR
EKOS June 28, 2015 PDF 27.3 30.9 25.6 6.3 6.6 ±2.3 pp 1,752 IVR
Forum Research June 23, 2015 PDF 28 36 28 5 2 ±3.0 pp 1,268 IVR
Ipsos Reid June 23, 2015 HTML 28 35 29 6 2 ±2.5 pp 2,003 online
Environics June 18, 2015 HTML 28 30 28 6 7 ±2.4 pp 2,003 telephone
Forum Research June 16, 2015 PDF 26 34 28 7 5 ±3.0 pp 1,281 IVR
EKOS June 16, 2015 PDF 29.4 30.2 25.0 5.9 7.1 ±1.6 pp 3,834 IVR
EKOS June 9, 2015 PDF 26.9 33.6 23.3 5.1 7.3 ±2.0 pp 2,491 IVR
Angus Reid June 7, 2015 PDF 31 36 23 5 5 ±1.2 pp 6,005 online
Forum Research June 5, 2015 PDF 31 28 32 3 5 ±3.0 pp 1,156 IVR
EKOS June 2, 2015 PDF 29.2 31.3 23.9 4.8 7.4 ±2.1 pp 2,204 IVR
Abacus Data May 31, 2015 PDF 31 28 28 4 7 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online
Ipsos Reid May 29, 2015 HTML 31 30 31 4 4 ±3.5 pp 1,003 online
Nanos Research May 29, 2015 PDF 32 30 29 4 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone
EKOS May 26, 2015 PDF 29.5 28.9 26.8 4.1 7.8 ±1.8 pp 2,934 IVR
EKOS May 19, 2015 PDF 28.1 29.6 26.1 5.4 7.6 ±1.9 pp 2,675 IVR
Nanos Research May 14, 2015 PDF 32.9 25.2 31.3 3.6 5.3 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone
Forum Research May 13, 2015 PDF 31 30 31 3 4 ±3.0 pp 1,286 IVR
EKOS May 12, 2015 PDF 30.0 29.1 27.0 4.1 8.0 ±2.1 pp 2,177 IVR
EKOS May 5, 2015 PDF 30.3 24.2 29.6 4.2 7.3 ±1.8 pp 3,017 IVR
Leger Marketing April 30, 2015 PDF 33 21 34 4 7 ±2.5 pp 1,488 online
EKOS April 28, 2015 PDF 32.4 21.9 28.7 4.1 9.9 ±1.6 pp 3,757 IVR
Abacus Data April 24, 2015 PDF 36 24 28 5 6 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online
Forum Research April 22, 2015 PDF 35 23 31 5 6 ±3.0 pp 977 IVR
EKOS April 21, 2015 PDF 31.8 23.5 27.6 4.9 7.5 ±1.6 pp 3,850 IVR
Nanos Research April 17, 2015 PDF 29 25 34 4 8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone
Forum Research April 16, 2015 PDF 33 22 35 3 6 ±3.0 pp 1,365 IVR
EKOS April 14, 2015 PDF 32.2 22.7 28.5 4.9 8.0 ±1.7 pp 3,399 IVR
Ipsos Reid April 7, 2015 HTML 35 25 33 4 3 ±3.5 pp 1,001 online
EKOS April 7, 2015 PDF 28.7 22.9 30.1 4.2 9.2 ±1.7 pp 3,306 IVR
Forum Research March 31, 2015 PDF 31 23 34 5 5 ±3.0 pp 1,239 IVR
EKOS March 31, 2015 PDF 31.9 22.6 27.6 5.2 9.6 ±1.6 pp 3,901 IVR
Oraclepoll Research March 30, 2015 PDF 35.3 18.7 31.4 5.9 8.7 ±1.8 pp 3,040 telephone
EKOS March 24, 2015 PDF 31.8 23.2 28.5 4.7 8.7 ±1.5 pp 4,311 IVR
Abacus Data March 22, 2015 PDF 32 23 33 4 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 online
Leger Marketing March 18, 2015 PDF 34 20 35 4 6 ±2.5 pp 1,511 online
EKOS March 17, 2015 PDF 30.2 21.2 32.1 4.8 7.9 ±1.6 pp 3,832 IVR
Forum Research March 14, 2015 PDF 32 21 36 4 6 ±3.0 pp 1,370 IVR
EKOS March 10, 2015 PDF 32.9 19.7 30.5 4.8 8.8 ±1.8 pp 2,950 IVR
EKOS March 3, 2015 PDF 32.2 19.9 31.3 4.6 9.0 ±1.7 pp 3,241 IVR
Nanos Research February 27, 2015 PDF 33 23 34 5 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone
EKOS February 24, 2015 PDF 31.1 22.1 31.9 4.5 7.5 ±1.6 pp 3,607 IVR
Ipsos Reid February 23, 2015 HTML 33 23 34 6 3 ±2.2 pp 2,650 online
EKOS February 17, 2015 PDF 32.3 19.1 31.6 5.4 8.0 ±1.7 pp 3,386 IVR
Abacus Data February 16, 2015 PDF 35 21 34 4 4 ±2.6 pp 1,460 online
Forum Research February 10, 2015 PDF 32 17 39 4 5 ±3.0 pp 1,018 IVR
EKOS February 10, 2015 PDF 32.0 18.9 33.8 4.2 8.5 ±1.8 pp 3,005 IVR
EKOS February 3, 2015 PDF 35.0 17.9 32.2 3.8 8.0 ±1.8 pp 2,974 IVR
Leger Marketing February 2, 2015 PDF 32 20 35 5 6 ±2.5 pp 1,507 online
Forum Research January 28, 2015 PDF 35 20 34 5 6 ±3.0 pp 1,382 IVR
Abacus Data January 28, 2015 PDF 33 24 32 4 5 ±3.1 pp 1,005 online
EKOS January 13, 2015 PDF 31.0 19.1 33.1 4.4 8.9 ±1.5 pp 4,412 IVR
Ipsos Reid January 11, 2015 HTML 35 24 31 6 4 ±2.6 pp 1,915 online
Forum Research January 6, 2015 PDF 33 20 37 4 5 ±2.0 pp 1,741 IVR
Abacus Data December 20, 2014 PDF 34 22 33 4 6 ±2.6 pp 1,438 online
EKOS December 18, 2014 PDF 29.8 20.2 33.8 5.3 7.7 ±1.7 pp 2,183 IVR
Angus Reid December 13, 2014 PDF 34 22 34 4 5 ±1.2 pp 6,325 online
EKOS December 12, 2014 PDF 30.8 20.0 31.8 5.0 7.8 ±1.7 pp 3,276 IVR
Forum Research December 11, 2014 PDF 33 17 41 3 5 ±2.0 pp 1,658 IVR
Leger Marketing December 11, 2014 PDF 32 19 38 4 6 ±2.5 pp 1,521 online
Ipsos Reid December 1, 2014 HTML 33 24 34 5 4 ±1.2 pp 8,268 online
Forum Research November 20, 2014 PDF 33 18 36 4 8 ±3.0 pp 1,500 IVR
EKOS November 6, 2014 PDF 30.2 20.5 33.5 3.5 9.7 ±2.5 pp 1,561 IVR
Leger Marketing November 6, 2014 PDF 33 19 36 3 7 ±2.5 pp 1,493 online
Abacus Data November 4, 2014 PDF 30 24 35 4 6 ±2.3 pp 1,850 online
EKOS October 29, 2014 PDF 27.8 21.4 33.4 5.5 8.2 ±2.4 pp 1,628 IVR
Abacus Data October 17, 2014 PDF 30 25 32 4 8 ±2.8 pp 1,248 online
Leger Marketing October 16, 2014 PDF 32 21 37 4 5 ±2.5 pp 1,524 online
EKOS October 15, 2014 PDF 26.4 25.0 38.5 3.1 5.7 ±2.4 pp 1,671 telephone/online
Forum Research October 5, 2014 PDF 34 19 38 4 4 ±2.5 pp 1,504 IVR
EKOS September 25, 2014 PDF 24.9 24.4 38.3 4.0 7.7 ±2.5 pp 1,549 telephone/online
Angus Reid September 19, 2014 PDF 30 22 36 4 6 ±2.5 pp 1,502 online
Abacus Data September 14, 2014 PDF 30 23 38 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,075 online
Ipsos Reid September 12, 2014 HTML 31 23 38 5 3 ±2.8 pp 1,605 online
Forum Research September 5, 2014 PDF 34 18 40 4 3 ±3.0 pp 1,267 IVR
Forum Research August 19, 2014 PDF 32 17 41 5 5 ±2.0 pp 1,798 IVR
Abacus Data August 18, 2014 PDF 29 22 35 5 7 ±2.5 pp 1,614 online
Ipsos Reid August 17, 2014 HTML 31 24 38 3 3 ±3.5 pp 1,012 online
EKOS July 23, 2014 PDF 25.6 23.4 38.7 3.7 7.1 ±1.9 pp 2,620 telephone/online
Forum Research July 18, 2014 PDF 28 18 44 5 3 ±2.0 pp 1,624 IVR
Abacus Data July 3, 2014 PDF 31 23 34 5 6 ±2.2 pp 2,000 online
Forum Research June 17, 2014 PDF 31 19 39 4 5 ±2.0 pp 1,683 IVR
Angus Reid June 12, 2014 PDF 31 27 30 5 6 ±1.2 pp 6,264 online
Angus Reid May 23, 2014 PDF 31 25 30 5 7 ±3.4 pp 1,503 online
Forum Research May 23, 2014 PDF 30 23 36 6 5 ±2.0 pp 1,694 IVR
EKOS May 1, 2014 PDF 27.6 21.4 34.9 5.3 8.2 ±1.6 pp 3,677 IVR
Forum Research April 29, 2014 PDF 30 20 39 6 4 ±2.0 pp 1,572 IVR
Ipsos Reid April 22, 2014 HTML 33 24 33 6 4 ±3.5 pp 1,014 online
Angus Reid April 15, 2014 PDF 32 26 30 5 6 ±3.4 pp 1,505 online
EKOS April 3, 2014 PDF 26.7 21.8 35.8 4.8 8.1 ±1.5 pp 4,134 IVR
Forum Research March 28, 2014 PDF 29 22 39 5 3 ±2.0 pp 1,764 IVR
Angus Reid March 9, 2014 PDF 28 27 33 5 6 ±1.2 pp 6,445 online
Abacus Data March 5, 2014 PDF 28 23 34 8 6 ±2.8 pp 1,249 online
Forum Research February 19, 2014 PDF 29 21 39 6 4 ±2.0 pp 1,824 IVR
Ipsos Reid February 18, 2014 HTML 29 24 37 5 5 ±3.5 pp 1,034 online
Angus Reid February 16, 2014 PDF 28 26 33 5 6 ±2.5 pp 1,514 online
Nanos Research February 15, 2014 PDF 28.7 23.2 34.0 6.4 5.3 ±3.4 pp 1,000 telephone
Ipsos Reid February 4, 2014 HTML 29 27 33 7 4 ±3.5 pp 1,001 online
EKOS January 27, 2014 PDF 29.7 24.3 33.2 4.5 6.2 ±2.5 pp 1,501 telephone/online
Forum Research January 25, 2014 PDF 28 24 38 5 4 ±3.0 pp 1,228 IVR
Abacus Data January 18, 2014 PDF 28 24 34 5 7 ±2.2 pp 1,996 online
Forum Research January 17, 2014 PDF 28 25 37 5 4 ±2.0 pp 1,779 IVR
EKOS December 15, 2013 PDF 26.2 22.9 32.1 6.3 9.3 ±1.7 pp 3,468 IVR
Forum Research December 13, 2013 PDF 32 21 38 5 3 ±2.0 pp 1,634 IVR
Ipsos Reid November 27, 2013 HTML 29 26 35 6 3 ±3.5 pp 1,014 online
Harris-Decima November 25, 2013 PDF 26 23 36 7 7 ±2.2 pp 2,034 telephone
Forum Research November 13, 2013 PDF 29 22 38 6 4 ±2.0 pp 1,834 IVR
EKOS October 29, 2013 PDF 26.4 24.9 37.4 5.2 5.2 ±2.6 pp 1,377 telephone/online
Ipsos Reid October 28, 2013 HTML 30 31 31 6 2 ±3.4 pp 1,102 online
Forum Research October 23, 2013 PDF 28 20 40 6 5 ±3.0 pp 1,007 IVR
Forum Research October 22, 2013 PDF 30 19 39 7 5 ±2.0 pp 1,859 IVR
Abacus Data October 22, 2013 PDF 32 23 32 5 7 ±2.6 pp 1,459 online
Ipsos Reid October 20, 2013 HTML 31 27 33 6 2 ±3.4 pp 1,042 online
Nanos Research October 18, 2013 PDF 29 23 37 5 5 ±3.5 pp 1,000 telephone
EKOS October 14, 2013 PDF 26.1 24.9 36.3 5.0 6.5 ±2.5 pp 1,554 telephone/online
Ipsos Reid September 20, 2013 HTML 32 26 31 7 3 ±3.5 pp 1,035 online
Forum Research September 17, 2013 PDF 31 21 36 7 4 ±3.0 pp 1,527 IVR
Harris-Decima September 9, 2013 PDF 29 24 33 6 6 ±2.2 pp 2,020 telephone
Abacus Data September 4, 2013 PDF 30 27 29 8 4 ±2.5 pp 1,600 online
Nanos Research August 31, 2013 PDF 30 25 33 5 5 ±3.5 pp 1,000 telephone
Forum Research August 23, 2013 PDF 29 22 38 6 4 ±3.0 pp 1,189 IVR
Nanos Research August 22, 2013 PDF 29.7 24.8 35.7 3.9 5.5 ±3.3 pp 1,000 telephone/online
Nanos Research August 19, 2013 PDF 31.9 22.8 35.3 2.5 5.9 ±2.2 pp 2,000 telephone
Forum Research July 23, 2013 PDF 31 22 35 7 4 ±2.0 pp 1,782 IVR
EKOS July 9, 2013 PDF 28.4 23.4 30.4 6.3 8.5 ±1.8 pp 2,900 IVR
Environics June 30, 2013 PDF 28 24 34 6 6 ±2.4 pp 2,149 telephone
Ipsos Reid June 25, 2013 HTML 30 28 33 6 4 ±3.3 pp 1,177 online
Abacus Data June 23, 2013 HTML 27 26 29 6 10 ±3.1 pp 999 online
Leger Marketing June 19, 2013 PDF 29 21 37 4 8 ±2.5 pp 1,503 online
Nanos Research June 19, 2013 PDF 29.4 25.3 34.2 3.7 6.4 ±3.5 pp 1,000 telephone/online
Forum Research June 18, 2013 PDF 30 20 38 6 4 ±2.0 pp 1,525 IVR
Ipsos Reid May 28, 2013 HTML 30 27 36 4 4 ±3.5 pp 1,009 online
EKOS May 26, 2013 HTML 26.3 20.9 34.7 5.4 9.2 ±1.7 pp 3,318 IVR
Forum Research May 22, 2013 PDF 27 20 44 4 3 ±2.0 pp 1,779 IVR
EKOS May 2, 2013 PDF 26.2 23.9 38.6 4.2 6.3 ±2.7 pp 1,309 telephone/online
Ipsos Reid April 30, 2013 HTML 32 25 35 5 3 ±3.4 pp 1,059 online
Harris-Decima April 28, 2013 PDF 28 22 35 6 7 ±2.2 pp 2,008 telephone
Forum Research April 15, 2013 PDF 30 19 43 5 2 ±2.0 pp 1,764 IVR
EKOS April 10, 2013 PDF 28.8 23.3 29.1 6.4 9.0 ±1.5 pp 4,568 IVR
Nanos Research April 8, 2013 PDF 31.3 23.6 35.4 4.8 4.2 ±3.3 pp 1,002 telephone/online
Abacus Data April 6, 2013 PDF 33 27 27 5 7 ±2.6 pp 1,511 online
Ipsos Reid April 3, 2013 HTML 31 27 32 6 4 ±3.4 pp 1,053 online
Forum Research April 2, 2013 PDF 29 25 33 5 6 ±3.0 pp 1,310 IVR
Leger Marketing March 28, 2013 PDF 31 24 30 7 7 ±2.5 pp 1,511 online
Abacus Data March 21, 2013 PDF 32 31 24 5 8 ±3.1 pp 1,014 online
Forum Research March 7, 2013 PDF 31 27 30 6 5 ±2.0 pp 1,755 IVR
Nanos Research February 24, 2013 PDF 31.5 27.2 29.1 5.2 5.9 ±3.7 pp 1,000 telephone
EKOS February 10, 2013 PDF 29.3 26.3 24.6 7.2 9.5 ±1.3 pp 5,947 IVR
Forum Research February 6, 2013 PDF 32 26 30 6 4 ±3.0 pp 1,091 IVR
Abacus Data February 6, 2013 PDF 35 31 21 6 6 ±2.3 pp 1,832 online
Nanos Research January 31, 2013 PDF 34.3 27.1 27.6 4.6 4.7 ±3.5 pp 1,000 telephone
Forum Research January 17, 2013 PDF 36 28 25 7 4 ±2.0 pp 1,626 IVR
Angus Reid January 17, 2013 PDF 35 29 22 6 6 ±2.2 pp 2,028 online
Angus Reid January 3, 2013 PDF 35 33 19 6 6 ±3.1 pp 1,012 online
Forum Research December 18, 2012 PDF 31 28 27 6 6 ±2.0 pp 1,355 IVR
Abacus Data December 8, 2012 PDF 34 32 22 6 6 ±2.6 pp 1,505 online
Leger Marketing December 6, 2012 PDF 35 30 18 7 9 ±2.5 pp 1,500 online
EKOS December 3, 2012 PDF 31.9 25.8 24.4 6.7 8.4 ±1.3 pp 5,433 IVR
Forum Research November 19, 2012 PDF 33 28 28 6 4 ±2.0 pp 1,849 IVR
Nanos Research November 15, 2012 PDF 33.8 27.2 29.0 4.9 3.7 ±3.5 pp 1,004 telephone
Abacus Data November 11, 2012 PDF 36 29 22 7 6 ±3.0 pp 1,068 online
Ipsos Reid November 8, 2012 HTML 34 30 26 7 2 ±2.5 pp 2,009 telephone/online
Forum Research October 27, 2012 PDF 31 32 27 6 4 ±2.0 pp 1,735 IVR
Nanos Research October 11, 2012 PDF 33.3 27.9 30.1 4.7 2.9 ±3.4 pp 1,000 telephone
Forum Research September 26, 2012 PDF 35 30 25 6 3 ±2.0 pp 1,707 IVR
Environics September 23, 2012 PDF 31 35 20 9 5 ±2.4 pp 2,000 telephone
Abacus Data September 18, 2012 PDF 35 35 17 7 6 ±2.9 pp 1,208 online
Harris-Decima September 10, 2012 HTML 34 27 24 6 7 ±2.2 pp 2,007 telephone
Nanos Research September 9, 2012 PDF 32.4 30.4 24.6 5.8 5.0 ±3.4 pp 1,000 telephone
Forum Research August 22, 2012 PDF 34 34 22 6 4 ±2.4 pp 1,720 IVR
Abacus Data August 12, 2012 HTML 37 32 20 6 6 ±2.2 pp 2,099 online
Forum Research July 26, 2012 PDF 31 35 22 6 5 ±2.4 pp 1,639 IVR
Nanos Research July 12, 2012 PDF 33.6 30.3 26.5 4.4 4.2 ±3.2 pp 1,200 telephone
EKOS July 5, 2012 PDF 30.2 32.3 19.5 4.9 10.0 ±2.1 pp 2,098 IVR
Forum Research June 27, 2012 PDF 35 35 19 6 3 ±2.9 pp 1,165 IVR
EKOS June 26, 2012 PDF 29.3 32.4 19.2 6.5 9.5 ±2.2 pp 2,049 IVR
Abacus Data June 23, 2012 HTML 35 35 20 5 6 ±3.1 pp 1,008 online
Environics June 23, 2012 PDF 33 35 19 7 5 ±2.4 pp 2,093 telephone
Ipsos Reid June 21, 2012 HTML 35 38 18 6 4 ±3.1 pp 1,099 online
Harris-Decima June 18, 2012 PDF 31 32 23 5 7 ±2.2 pp 2,000 telephone
Angus Reid June 16, 2012 PDF 34 35 19 6 5 ±2.5 pp 1,500 online
Forum Research June 14, 2012 PDF 30 37 22 6 5 ±2.5 pp 1,529 IVR
Nanos Research May 31, 2012 PDF 33.5 33.6 24.9 3.4 2.4 ±3.1 pp 1,201 telephone
Forum Research May 23, 2012 PDF 32 36 20 5 6 ±2.3 pp 1,836 IVR
Angus Reid May 23, 2012 PDF 37 33 18 7 4 ±3.1 pp 1,014 online
Abacus Data May 16, 2012 PDF 37 35 17 6 5 ±3.1 pp 1,008 online
Ipsos Reid May 10, 2012 HTML 37 35 19 5 3 ±2.0 pp 2,061 telephone/online
Environics May 9, 2012 PDF 32 36 19 6 7 ±3.5 pp 1,000 telephone
Harris-Decima May 6, 2012 PDF 30 34 20 7 8 ±2.2 pp 2,018 telephone
Harris-Decima April 30, 2012 PDF 30 33 20 7 8 ±3.1 pp 1,006 telephone
Forum Research April 25, 2012 PDF 33 36 22 6 2 ±2.4 pp 1,744 IVR
Nanos Research April 18, 2012 PDF 34.7 32.4 23.3 3.9 4.2 ±3.2 pp 1,200 telephone
Ipsos Reid April 5, 2012 HTML 34 33 21 7 4 ±2.0 pp 1,008 telephone
Leger Marketing April 4, 2012 PDF 32 33 19 7 8 ±2.5 pp 1,506 online
Harris-Decima April 2, 2012 PDF 34 32 19 6 8 ±2.2 pp 2,003 telephone
Forum Research March 30, 2012 PDF 36 34 19 5 5 ±2.4 pp 1,675 IVR
Forum Research March 27, 2012 PDF 35 35 19 7 3 ±2.4 pp 1,638 IVR
Angus Reid March 21, 2012 PDF 37 29 21 8 4 ±3.1 pp 1,004 online
Innovative Research March 21, 2012 PDF 37 25 24 6 7 ±2.8 pp 1,193 online
Harris-Decima March 19, 2012 PDF 31 28 24 8 7 ±2.2 pp 2,005 telephone
Environics March 18, 2012 PDF 30 30 20 8 7 ±2.4 pp 2,000 telephone
Abacus Data March 13, 2012 HTML 37 28 20 8 7 ±3.1 pp 1,003 online
EKOS March 11, 2012 PDF 35.4 29.7 19.6 5.8 8.1 ±2.2 pp 2,011 telephone/online
Ipsos Reid March 8, 2012 HTML 37 29 23 7 4 ±2.0 pp 3,154 telephone/online
Leger Marketing March 5, 2012 PDF 34 26 24 8 7 ±2.0 pp 2,509 online
Forum Research March 3, 2012 PDF 37 28 25 5 4 ±2.4 pp 1,675 IVR
Nanos Research February 29, 2012 PDF 35.7 25.0 29.5 4.9 3.4 ±3.1 pp 1,203 telephone
EKOS February 28, 2012 PDF 31.5 29.2 21.7 6.0 8.3 ±1.6 pp 3,699 IVR
Forum Research February 6, 2012 PDF 36 28 26 6 3 ±2.8 pp 1,210 IVR
Nanos Research January 23, 2012 PDF 35.7 25.2 27.6 5.6 4.5 ±3.2 pp 1,201 telephone
Harris-Decima January 22, 2012 PDF 32 29 25 5 7 ±2.2 pp 2,000 telephone
Angus Reid January 21, 2012 PDF 39 28 22 6 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 online
Abacus Data January 19, 2012 PDF 37 28 21 6 7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 online
Forum Research January 13, 2012 PDF 35 28 25 6 4 ±2.8 pp 1,211 IVR
EKOS December 21, 2011 PDF 31.4 29.5 24.8 6.7 6.1 ±2.2 pp 2,005 telephone/online
Nanos Research December 18, 2011 PDF 36.5 28.7 25.6 4.4 3.8 ±3.3 pp 1,201 telephone
Forum Research December 13, 2011 PDF 33 27 21 6 8 ±2.9 pp 1,160 IVR
Harris-Decima December 12, 2011 PDF 34 28 22 6 7 ±2.2 pp 2,005 telephone
Abacus Data December 4, 2011 PDF 40 31 18 6 5 ±3.1 pp 1,004 online
Nanos Research November 21, 2011 PDF 35.6 27.3 28.1 3.9 3.9 ±3.2 pp 1,202 telephone
Ipsos Reid November 9, 2011 HTML 37 31 21 6 3
Harris-Decima November 6, 2011 PDF 36 29 22 5 7 ±2.2 pp 2,000 telephone
Nanos Research October 24, 2011 PDF 37.7 30.0 23.4 3.6 3.8 ±3.2 pp 1,202 telephone
Nanos Research October 2, 2011 PDF 39.0 29.0 24.5 3.5 2.9 ±3.2 pp 1,209 telephone
Angus Reid September 21, 2011 PDF 39 29 21 5 4 ±2.4 pp 1,668 online
Leger Marketing September 15, 2011 HTML 39 33 17 5 6 ±2.4 pp 1,625 online
Nanos Research September 1, 2011 PDF 39.5 33.1 20.7 2.6 3.4 ±3.2 pp 1,210 telephone
Harris-Decima August 29, 2011 PDF 33 33 21 6 7 ±2.2 pp 2,026 telephone
Abacus Data August 15, 2011 PDF 38 32 19 5 6 ±3.2 pp 1,003 online
Angus Reid August 9, 2011 PDF 39 31 19 6 4 ±3.1 pp 1,005 online
Nanos Research August 2, 2011 PDF 36.2 26.8 27.0 4.4 4.5 ±3.1 pp 1,203 telephone
Abacus Data June 24, 2011 PDF 41 32 17 6 5 ±3.2 pp 1,005 online
Nanos Research June 19, 2011 PDF 41.8 28.0 22.3 3.4 3.7 ±3.1 pp 1,211 telephone
Nanos Research May 29, 2011 PDF 39.7 29.9 21.5 2.7 4.8 ±3.1 pp 1,205 telephone
Harris-Decima May 22, 2011 HTML 38 33 15 5 7 2,000 telephone
Abacus Data May 19, 2011 PDF 40 33 16 6 5 ±2.5 pp 1,544 online
Election May 2, 2011 HTML 39.6 30.6 18.9 6.0 3.9

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Stephen Harper Thomas Mulcair Justin Trudeau Elizabeth May Margin of Error[1]
Forum Research July 7, 2015 PDF 25 27 23 6 ±3.0 pp
Nanos Research July 3, 2015 PDF 27 27 26 4 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research June 29, 2015 PDF 25 29 21 7 ±3.0 pp
Nanos Research June 26, 2015 PDF 28 25 27 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research June 19, 2015 PDF 27 27 27 3 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research June 12, 2015 PDF 29 28 26 3 ±3.1 pp
Angus Reid June 7, 2015 PDF 26 24 19 ±1.2 pp
Nanos Research June 5, 2015 PDF 29 25 27 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 29, 2015 PDF 29 22 27 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 22, 2015 PDF 32 20 29 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 15, 2015 PDF 31 20 29 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 8, 2015 PDF 31 21 28 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 1, 2015 PDF 31 21 30 5 ±3.1 pp
Leger Marketing April 30, 2015 PDF 25 19 23 ±2.5 pp
Nanos Research April 24, 2015 PDF 29 21 30 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research April 17, 2015 PDF 29 20 31 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research April 10, 2015 PDF 31 19 30 4 ±3.1 pp
Ipsos Reid April 7, 2015 HTML 38 31 30 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research April 3, 2015 PDF 31 18 29 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research March 27, 2015 PDF 31 17 31 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research March 20, 2015 PDF 34 16 31 4 ±3.1 pp
Leger Marketing March 18, 2015 PDF 25 17 23 ±2.5 pp
Nanos Research March 13, 2015 PDF 34 16 30 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research March 6, 2015 PDF 34 17 31 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research February 27, 2015 PDF 34 17 31 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research February 20, 2015 PDF 33 16 31 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research February 13, 2015 PDF 33 16 31 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research February 6, 2015 PDF 32 17 31 3 ±3.1 pp
Leger Marketing February 2, 2015 PDF 25 16 23 ±2.5 pp
Nanos Research January 30, 2015 PDF 31 17 31 3 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research January 23, 2015 PDF 31 19 30 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research January 16, 2015 PDF 31 18 31 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research January 9, 2015 PDF 30 18 31 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research January 2, 2015 PDF 33 18 30 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research December 26, 2014 PDF 33 18 32 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research December 19, 2014 PDF 33 18 31 4 ±3.1 pp
Angus Reid December 13, 2014 PDF 30 16 28 ±1.2 pp
Nanos Research December 12, 2014 PDF 33 19 31 3 ±3.1 pp
Leger Marketing December 11, 2014 PDF 24 16 27 ±2.5 pp
Nanos Research December 5, 2014 PDF 32 20 30 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research November 28, 2014 PDF 33 20 29 3 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research November 21, 2014 PDF 32 20 29 3 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research November 14, 2014 PDF 32 20 29 3 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research November 7, 2014 PDF 32 20 30 4 ±3.1 pp
Leger Marketing November 6, 2014 PDF 26 16 28 ±2.5 pp
Nanos Research October 31, 2014 PDF 29 20 32 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research October 24, 2014 PDF 29 19 34 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research October 17, 2014 PDF 30 18 35 4 ±3.1 pp
Leger Marketing October 16, 2014 PDF 23 17 26 ±2.5 pp
Nanos Research October 10, 2014 PDF 30 17 35 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research October 3, 2014 PDF 28 18 36 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research September 26, 2014 PDF 28 18 35 3 ±3.1 pp
Angus Reid September 19, 2014 PDF 27 14 27 4 ±2.5 pp
Nanos Research September 19, 2014 PDF 28 18 34 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research September 12, 2014 PDF 28 17 34 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research September 5, 2014 PDF 29 15 34 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research August 29, 2014 PDF 28 15 34 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research August 22, 2014 PDF 27 16 32 6 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research August 19, 2014 PDF 29 15 31 8 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research August 15, 2014 PDF 26 19 32 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research August 8, 2014 PDF 26 19 31 7 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research August 1, 2014 PDF 29 20 29 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research July 25, 2014 PDF 30 20 30 5 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research July 18, 2014 PDF 27 16 30 7 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research July 18, 2014 PDF 31 18 31 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research July 11, 2014 PDF 31 19 29 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research July 4, 2014 PDF 29 18 30 7 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research June 27, 2014 PDF 28 17 31 7 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research June 20, 2014 PDF 30 16 30 6 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research June 17, 2014 PDF 28 16 27 8 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research June 13, 2014 PDF 28 14 33 7 ±3.1 pp
Angus Reid June 12, 2014 PDF 27 17 23 5 ±1.2 pp
Nanos Research June 6, 2014 PDF 30 14 32 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 30, 2014 PDF 32 15 30 6 ±3.1 pp
Angus Reid May 23, 2014 PDF 27 17 23 4 ±3.4 pp
Forum Research May 23, 2014 PDF 26 17 28 8 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research May 23, 2014 PDF 30 17 30 7 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 16, 2014 PDF 31 19 27 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 9, 2014 PDF 30 19 27 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research May 2, 2014 PDF 27 20 27 6 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research April 29, 2014 PDF 25 17 30 10 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research April 25, 2014 PDF 29 19 26 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research April 18, 2014 PDF 29 19 27 6 ±3.1 pp
Angus Reid April 15, 2014 PDF 27 16 20 4 ±3.4 pp
Nanos Research April 11, 2014 PDF 30 20 27 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research April 4, 2014 PDF 31 20 28 6 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research March 28, 2014 PDF 27 17 29 8 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research March 28, 2014 PDF 30 18 29 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research March 21, 2014 PDF 29 18 31 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research March 14, 2014 PDF 27 17 32 6 ±3.1 pp
Angus Reid March 9, 2014 PDF 23 17 24 4 ±1.2 pp
Nanos Research March 7, 2014 PDF 26 18 31 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research February 28, 2014 PDF 25 19 32 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research February 21, 2014 PDF 28 19 29 5 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research February 19, 2014 PDF 26 16 33 8 ±2.0 pp
Angus Reid February 16, 2014 PDF 32 22 36 9 ±2.5 pp
Nanos Research February 14, 2014 PDF 28 19 30 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research February 7, 2014 PDF 28 19 29 4 ±3.1 pp
Ipsos Reid February 4, 2014 PDF 34 24 42 - ±3.5 pp
Nanos Research January 31, 2014 PDF 29 19 29 4 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research January 25, 2014 PDF 24 18 29 7 ±3.0 pp
Nanos Research January 24, 2014 PDF 27 21 29 4 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research January 17, 2014 PDF 25 19 29 7 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research January 17, 2014 PDF 28 21 27 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research January 10, 2014 PDF 27 20 29 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research January 3, 2014 PDF 27 19 29 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research December 27, 2013 PDF 27 18 29 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research December 20, 2013 PDF 26 18 30 5 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research December 13, 2013 PDF 27 17 29 6 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research December 13, 2013 PDF 28 18 27 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research December 6, 2013 PDF 27 20 26 6 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research November 29, 2013 PDF 27 20 26 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research November 22, 2013 PDF 29 20 27 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research November 15, 2013 PDF 27 19 29 5 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research November 13, 2013 PDF 25 17 27 7 ±2.0 pp
Nanos Research November 8, 2013 PDF 29 17 31 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research November 1, 2013 PDF 30 16 32 4 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research October 25, 2013 PDF 30 16 32 5 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research October 23, 2013 PDF 25 15 31 9 ±3.0 pp
Forum Research October 22, 2013 PDF 25 13 29 7 ±3.0 pp
Abacus Data October 22, 2013 PDF 24 12 26 4 ±2.6 pp
Nanos Research October 18, 2013 PDF 31 16 32 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research October 11, 2013 PDF 30 16 33 5 ±3.1 pp
Nanos Research October 4, 2013 PDF 29 15 31 5 ±3.1 pp
Forum Research September 17, 2013 PDF 27 15 30 6 ±3.0 pp
Harris-Decima August 25, 2013 PDF 29 14 33 - ±3.1 pp
Forum Research August 23, 2013 PDF 24 16 32 9 ±3.0 pp
Leger Marketing June 19, 2013 PDF 23 14 27 6 ±2.5 pp
Harris-Decima April 21, 2013 PDF 31 18 33 - ±3.1 pp

References

  1. ^ "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. ^ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research, retrieved October 17, 2012