2015 Venezuelan parliamentary election: Difference between revisions
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'''Parliamentary elections''' were held in [[Venezuela]] on 6 December 2015.<ref>{{cite news|title=Venezuela to hold parliamentary election on Dec. 6|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/22/us-venezuela-election-idUSKBN0P21ZH20150622|accessdate=22 June 2015|agency=Reuters|date=22 June 2015}}</ref> Members of the opposition had speculated that President [[Nicolás Maduro]] might suspend the elections, but Maduro |
'''Parliamentary elections''' were held in [[Venezuela]] on 6 December 2015.<ref>{{cite news|title=Venezuela to hold parliamentary election on Dec. 6|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/22/us-venezuela-election-idUSKBN0P21ZH20150622|accessdate=22 June 2015|agency=Reuters|date=22 June 2015}}</ref> Members of the opposition had speculated that President [[Nicolás Maduro]] might suspend the elections, but Maduro states that the elections would happen even in the most adverse circumstances.<ref name=nosuspend>{{cite news|title=Maduro rejects speculation he'll suspend Venezuela elections - Salon.com|url=http://www.salon.com/2015/03/05/maduro_rejects_speculation_hell_suspend_venezuela_elections/|accessdate=9 April 2015|agency=[[Associated Press|AP]]|date=5 March 2015}}</ref> Polls showed the opposition [[Democratic Unity Roundtable]] leading by comfortable margins the ruling [[United Socialist Party of Venezuela]], giving them a chance to retake the [[National Assembly (Venezuela)|National Assembly]] for the first time since the early 2000s.<ref>{{cite news|title=Venezuela's Media Isn't Smearing the Opposition; It's Making Them Invisible|url=http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/venezuelas-media-isnt-smearing-opposition-its-making-them-invisible#.VlZ2OXrvj8N.twitter|author= Javier Corrales and Franz Von Bergen|accessdate=26 November 2015|agency=Americas Quarterly|date=23 November 2015}}</ref> |
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==Background== |
==Background== |
Revision as of 02:04, 8 December 2015
This article documents a current election. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses, and initial news reports may be unreliable. The latest updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. (December 2015) |
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All 167 seats in the National Assembly[1] 84 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Parliamentary elections were held in Venezuela on 6 December 2015.[4] Members of the opposition had speculated that President Nicolás Maduro might suspend the elections, but Maduro states that the elections would happen even in the most adverse circumstances.[5] Polls showed the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable leading by comfortable margins the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, giving them a chance to retake the National Assembly for the first time since the early 2000s.[6]
Background
Since the 1999 Constitutional Assembly elections, the National Assembly was dominated by alliances supportive of President Hugo Chávez. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, most opposition parties decided to withdraw, resulting in all seats being won by the Fifth Republic Movement and other parties supportive of Chávez. For the 2010 elections, an alliance of opposition parties was formed by the Democratic Unity Roundtable to contest the elections, and managed to win 64 seats. The PSUV, which was an alliance formed by Chávez from the Fifth Republic Movement and a number of smaller parties, won 96 seats, maintaining their majority, but lost their two-thirds and three-fifths supermajority. Fatherland for All, a small left-wing party, won two seats.[7] After Chávez's death in 2013, his hand-picked successor Maduro was narrowly elected president, continuing Chávez' ideological influence.[8] The Democratic Unity Roundtable alliance aim to improve its result from last time and end the current PSUV government,[9] while Maduro said he had faith in the voters giving the government a large majority.[5]
Protests
In 2014, a series of protests and demonstrations began in Venezuela. The protests have been attributed to inflation, violence and shortages in Venezuela. The protests have been largely peaceful,[10] though some have escalated and resulted in violence from both protesters and government forces. The government has accused the protests of being motivated by 'fascists' opposition leaders, capitalism and foreign influence,[11] and has itself been accused of censorship, supporting groups called colectivos using violence against protesters and politically motivated arrests.[12]
Electoral system
Starting from 2015, the 167 members of the National Assembly are elected by a mixed majoritarian system; 113 members are elected by First-past-the-post voting in 87 constituencies. A total of 51 seats are elected by closed list proportional representation based on the 23 states and the Capital District. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method. The remaining three seats are reserved for indigenous peoples, and are elected by the community.[13]
The opposition coalition held primaries on 17 May in 33 of the 87 electoral districts, choosing candidates for 42 seats; 125 additional candidates are expected to be hand-picked by 'consensus' among party leaders,[14] though the rules were later changed to require 40% of opposition candidates to be women and barred some popular opposition candidates from running, a move that experts called unconstitutional.[15] The PSUV held primaries in all 87 electoral districts on 28 June with the Bolivarian government stating there was a participation of 3,162,400 voters,[16] though some observing the primaries noticed a large decrease of voters to less than 1 million participating, or about 10% of PSUV members.[15]
Conduct
Leading up to the elections, serious issues have been raised about its fairness and credibility.[17] On 10 October 2015, Brazil pulled out of a UNASUR electoral mission to observe the Venezuelan election over what it said a lack of guarantees by the socialist government and its veto of the choice to head the delegation.[18] In a statement on 10 November 2015, Secretary General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro condemned Venezuela's electoral process, explaining that the ruling party, PSUV, has an unfair advantage with its ability to use public assets, media access, creating dubious voting sheets and by disqualifying opposition politicians, stating that "It's worrying that ... the difficulties only impact the opposition parties".[19]
Opinion polls
Graphical summary
Poll results are listed in the tables below in chronological order and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
PSUV | MUD | Others/ Independent |
Undecided/ Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IVAD[20][21] | 29 September 2014 | 800 | 27.6% | 45.2% | – | 27.2% |
Consultores 21[21] | 21 September – 2 October 2014 | 1000 | 33% | 48% | – | |
Datanálisis[22] | October 2014 | 1293 | 21.0% | 38.9% | 12.9% | 17.5% |
Datanálisis[22] | November 2014 | 1300 | 18.8% | 39.8% | 15.5% | 17.5% |
VARIANZAS[23][24] | 8–23 December 2014 | 1200 | 30.3% | 43.9% | 4.9% [note 1] | 20.9 [note 2] |
Datanálisis[22] | January 2015 | 1000 | 17.3% | 45.9% | 13.8% | 17.4% |
Keller y Asociados[25] | January 2015 | 1200 | 44% | 56% | – | – |
Meganalisis[26] | 25 January 2015 | – | 21.0% | 29.0% | – | 26.8% |
Datanálisis[27] | February 2015 | ? | 22.5% | 59.6% | 17.9% | – |
ICS[28] | 10–20 February 2015 | 1300 | 43.6% | 31.6% | – | 24.8% |
DatinCorp[29] | 8 February 2015 | 1200 | 23.83% | 47.83% | – | 17%[note 3] |
Datanálisis[22][30] | March 2015 | 1000 | 19.0% | 42,6% | 8.8% | 21.3% |
Keller y Asociados[31] | 26 February – 13 March 2015 | 1200 | 31% | 42% | 11% | 16% |
Datanálisis[22] | April 2015 | 1000 | 25.0% | 45.8% | 6.5% | 16.5% |
VARIANZAS[32] | 19 March – 2 April 2015 | 1200 | 33.7% | 46.1% | 7.8% | 12.5% |
UCAB/Delphos[33] | 10 – 25 April 2015 | 1200 | 15.5% | 39.2% | – | 45.7% [note 4] |
Hercón[34] | 1 – 15 May 2015 | 1200 | 28% | 52% | – | 19.8% [note 5] |
DatinCorp[35] | May 2015 | 1200 | 18% | 48% | 21% | 14%[note 3] |
Datanálisis[36] | 18–30 May 2015 | 1000 | 21.3% | 40.1% | 10.0% | 28.6% |
Meganalisis[26] | 30 May 2015 | – | 19.5% | 17.6% | – | 28.7% |
IVAD[37] | 28 May – 11 June 2015 | 1200 | 20.8% | 32.6% | 27.6 | 19% [note 6] |
Datanálisis[38] | June 2015 | ? | 27% | 61% | 12% | – |
Hercón[39] | 20 – 27 June 2015 | 2000 | 28.1% | 61.1% | – | 10.5% |
ICS[40] | 6–27 July 2015 | 8000 (500 per state) |
45.3% | 37.6% | – | 17.1% |
Datanálisis[22][41] | 10 – 23 July 2015 | 999 | 19.2% | 42.2% | 11.8% | 17.5% |
DatinCorp[42] | July 2015 | 1197 | 20% | 42% | 14% | 23% [note 7] |
Meganalisis[43] | August 2015 | – | 16.3% | 42.4% | – | 13.0% |
IVAD[44] | 08 – 16 August 2015 | 1200 | 19.3% | 57.9% | – | 22.8% |
Keller y Asociados[45] | 19 August – 5 September 2015 | 1200 | 27% | 53% | 11% | 9% |
Datanálisis[46] | September 2015 | – | 21% | 44% | 35% | – |
DatinCorp[47] | September 2015 | – | 20% | 53% | – | |
Delphos | September 2015 | – | 20% | 50% | 20% | 10% |
Meganalisis[43] | September 2015 | – | 26.7% | 37.6% | – | 35.7% |
Venebarómetro/IVAD[48] | 5 – 15 September 2015 | 1200 | 17.1% | 38.3% | 28.0% | 16.7% |
Hercon[49] | 13 – 16 September 2015 | 1000 | 22.3% | 60.1% | 13.0% | 4.6% |
Consultores 21[50] | 4 – 20 September 2015 | - | 35.8% | 57.8% | 3.7% | – |
Hercon[51] | 5 – 20 September 2015 | 1200 | 30.3% | 62.3% | – | 7.3% |
Consultores 21[52] | October 2015 | - | 34% | 55% | – | |
Datanálisis[53] | October 2015 | – | 28.2% | 63.2% | – | |
DatinCorp[54] | October 2015 | – | 20% | 47% | – | |
DatinCorp[55] | October 2015 | – | 39% | 56% | – | |
IVAD[56] | October 2015 | – | 22.1% | 41.8% | [note 1] | |
Venebarómetro[57] | 11 October 2015 | – | 19,9% | 43.7% | – | 26.5% |
Keller y Asociados[58] | 5 – 15 November 2015 | 1200 | 25% | 59% | 11% | 6% |
IVAD[59] | 10 – 20 November 2015 | 1200 | 27.8% | 43.0% | 11.3% | 17.8% |
Venebarómetro[60] | 8 – 22 November 2015 | 1200 | 27.6% | 42.7% | 11.1% | 18.7% |
Hercón[61] | 10 – 25 November 2015 | 1200 | 31.6% | 60.1% | – | 8.2% |
Meganalisis[62] | 18 – 26 November 2015 | 1200 | 28% | 63% | 6% | 3% |
Results
Just after midnight on 7 December 2015, the CNE announced the opposition coalition (MUD) gained at least 99 out of 167 seats in the National Assembly, meaning it will obtain at least a simple majority, while the pro-government coalition won at least 46. Another 22 seats have yet to be declared.[63][64][65] Voter participation exceeded 70 percent.[66]
Party | Votes | % | Seats | +/– | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) | 112 | |||||
United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) | 51 | |||||
Indigenous seats | 3 | – | ||||
Undeclared | – | – | 19 | – | ||
Invalid/blank votes | – | – | – | |||
Total | 167 | +2 | ||||
Registered votes/turnout | 74.25 | |||||
Source: CNE (96.03% of the vote counted) |
Reactions
According to the Associated Press, celebrations and fireworks could be heard in the streets of Caracas following the MUD victory.[63] In a speech following the results, President Maduro acknowledged his party's defeat, saying that, despite these "adverse results", Venezuela's democracy and constitution had triumphed; while calling for peace, re-evaluation, he attributed the opposition's victory to an intensification of the "economic war".[63][67] The leader of the MUD, Jesús Torrealba, told supporters after their party's victory that "The country wants change and that change is beginning today".[63] Henrique Capriles Radonski, a leading opposition politician, stated "The results are as we hoped. Venezuela has won. It's irreversible".[67]
Venezuelan bonds grew across the board about one to three cents after the announcement of MUD's victory in the elections, with one researcher at Exotix brokerage stating, "It's better than we expected. Polls suggested a victory but whether that translated into seats was another question. Also, (the government) seem to have accepted the result".[68]
Notes and references
Notes
References
- ^ "CNE dio a conocer distribución de diputados a elegir en todo el país". El Universal. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
- ^ "Jesús "Chuo" Torrealba aceptó la secretaría ejecutiva de la MUD". El Mundo. 24 September 2014. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
- ^ "Venezuela's opposition party wins parliament in a blow to Maduro". CNN. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
- ^ "Venezuela to hold parliamentary election on Dec. 6". Reuters. 22 June 2015. Retrieved 22 June 2015.
- ^ a b "Maduro rejects speculation he'll suspend Venezuela elections - Salon.com". AP. 5 March 2015. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
- ^ Javier Corrales and Franz Von Bergen (23 November 2015). "Venezuela's Media Isn't Smearing the Opposition; It's Making Them Invisible". Americas Quarterly. Retrieved 26 November 2015.
- ^ "Divulgación Elecciones Parlamentarias – 26 de Septiembre de 2010" (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 April 2015.
- ^ "Nicolas Maduro sworn in as new Venezuelan president". BBC News. 19 April 2013. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
- ^ Cawthorne, Andrew; Pons, Corina (6 October 2014). "Venezuelan opposition head seeks 2015 vote gains, and 'Caribbean Norway'". Reuters. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
- ^ "Protestas aumentan 278% en primer semestre 2014" (in Spanish). La Patilla. 17 July 2014. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
- ^ Milne, Seumas. "Venezuela protests are sign that US wants our oil, says Nicolás Maduro". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
- ^ "Venezuela: UN rights chief calls for immediate release of opposition leader, politicians". United Nations. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
- ^ "113 diputados serán electos por voto nominal y 51 por voto lista en parlamentarias". Agencia Venezolana de Noticias. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
- ^ Ulmer, Alexandra (17 May 2015). "Venezuela opposition holds primaries for high-stakes parliament vote". Reuters. Retrieved 26 May 2015.
- ^ a b María Delgado, Antonio (21 July 2015). "Chavismo pierde participación electoral y opta por inhabilitar a la oposición". El Nuevo Herald. Retrieved 31 July 2015.
- ^ "Masiva movilización en primarias del PSUV: Más de 3 millones de votos".
- ^ "Venezuela's regime is in a scared and ugly mood". The Economist. 14 November 2015. Retrieved 14 November 2015.
- ^ Brazil Pulls out of Electoral Mission to Venezuela. ABC News. Retrieved 20 October 2015.
- ^ Chinea, Eyanir; Ellsworth, Brian; Gupta, Girish; Craft, Diane (10 November 2015). "OAS chief slams Venezuela over election observation". Reuters. Retrieved 14 November 2015.
- ^ "Gestión de Gobierno y Coyuntura Política Estudio Nacional" (pdf) (in Spanish). IVAD. 29 September 2014. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ a b Martínez, Eugenio G. (28 October 2014). "Legislativas 2015: ¿por qué puede ganar la unidad y perder la oposición?; por Eugenio Martínez « Prodavinci" (in Spanish). Prodavinci. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ a b c d e f "Datanálisis: Omnibus Julio Agosto 2015". Datanalisis. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
- ^ "varianzas: Presentación Encuesta Nacional Diciembre 2014" (in Spanish). 11 January 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ "VARIANZAS: POPULARIDAD DE MADURO SE UBICA EN 13,5% | Barómetro Político" (in Spanish). Barómetro Político. 15 April 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ Vásquez, Alex (11 January 2015). "Crisis económica pone a prueba liderazgos de la MUD y del PSUV" (in Spanish). El Nacional. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ a b "Entrevista en el Canal Internacional de Noticias NTN24". Meganalisis. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
- ^ "La oposición venezolana, ante el reto de la contención" (in Spanish). 23 February 2015. Retrieved 29 August 2015.
- ^ "Enquesta – ICS Febrero 2015" (pdf) (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ RODRÍGUEZ T., CARMEN M. (16 March 2015). "DatinCorp: 70% califica entre mala y pésima la situación del país – Nacional y Política" (in Spanish). El Universal. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ "Datanálisis: Oposición mantiene ventaja de 20% de cara a las parlamentarias – Nacional y Política" (in Spanish). El Universal. 21 April 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ "KELLER1er Trimestre 2015". Scribd (in Spanish). La Patilla. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ "varianzas: Encuesta Nacional Marzo-Abril 2015" (in Spanish). 14 April 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
- ^ "Percepciones ciudadanas del Sistema Electoral Venezolano" (PDF) (in Spanish). 20 May 2015. Retrieved 22 May 2015.
- ^ "Marcos Hernández López: Intención voto parlamentarias 2015" (in Spanish). 20 May 2015. Retrieved 20 May 2015.
- ^ "#SiSePuede: La Oposición supera al Chavismo por 30 Puntos" (in Spanish). 8 June 2015. Retrieved 29 August 2015.
- ^ "Aprobación de presidente venezolano Maduro cae a 25,8 pct en mayo: sondeo" (in Spanish). Reuters América Latina. 17 June 2015. Retrieved 17 June 2015.
- ^ "Chavismo ocupa el tercer lugar de preferencias" (in Spanish). 28 July 2015. Retrieved 28 July 2015.
- ^ "Crisis socioeconómica restará curules a partidos oficialistas" (in Spanish).
{{cite news}}
:|access-date=
requires|url=
(help) - ^ "Si las elecciones parlamentarias fueran hoy el 70,7% votaría por la oposición (encuesta Hercon)" (in Spanish). 28 June 2015. Retrieved 28 June 2015.
- ^ "Mayoría de venezolanos confían que Maduro mejorará economía del país, según encuesta ICS" (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 August 2015.
- ^ "Rechazo a gestión de Nicolás aumenta al 75,7%, según Datanálisis" (in Spanish). 13 August 2015. Retrieved 13 August 2015.
- ^ "TRACKING DE COYUNTURA" (PDF) (in Spanish). 7 September 2015. Retrieved 7 September 2015.
- ^ a b "RESULTADOS ENCUESTA NACIONAL MEGANALISIS CORRESPONDIENTE AL MES DE SEPTIEMBRE". Meganalisis. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
- ^ "El 83,6% de los venezolanos no confía en el gobierno de Maduro (encuesta IVAD)" (in Spanish). 22 August 2015. Retrieved 23 August 2015.
- ^ "Maduro ha llevado al oficialismo a ser una clara minoría (encuesta Keller)". La Patilla. Retrieved 27 September 2015.
- ^ "Datanálisis: Chavismo y oposición necesitan a independientes para ganar el 6D". Globovision. 23 September 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2015.
- ^ "Maduro provoca que el chavismo se hunda en los sondeos de Venezuela". ABC. 9 September 2015. Retrieved 27 October 2015.
- ^ "El 86,8% quiere un cambio en la conducción del país (encuesta Venebarómetro)" (in Spanish). 11 October 2015. Retrieved 11 October 2015.
- ^ "Sólo el 20,1% de los venezolanos cree que López es culpable (encuesta flash Hercon)" (in Spanish). 22 August 2015. Retrieved 23 August 2015.
- ^ G. Martínez, Eugenio (14 October 2015). "Venezuela: la encuesta de Consultores 21 y los datos sobre el 6D; por Eugenio Martínez". Prodavinci. Retrieved 21 October 2015.
- ^ "En 82,7 % se ubica rechazo a gestión de Maduro: 51,2 % entre oficialistas (encuesta Hercon)" (in Spanish). 1 October 2015. Retrieved 1 October 2015.
- ^ "Primero Justicia dice que encuestas anuncian derrota de Maduro". El Tiempo. 1 November 2015. Retrieved 7 November 2015.
- ^ "Capriles: "No hay forma que el chavismo gane las legislativas"". Radio Programas del Perú. 14 November 2015. Retrieved 14 November 2015.
- ^ "FRANCISCO M. PÉREZ – En Secreto". El Carabobeño. 20 October 2015. Retrieved 7 November 2015.
- ^ Vinogradoff, Ludmila (29 October 2015). "Maduro se derrumba con el 82% de rechazo de los venezolanos en las encuestas". ABC. Retrieved 7 November 2015.
- ^ Azócar, Gustavo (21 October 2015). "¿Están blindadas las elecciones parlamentarias del 6D?". Analítica. Retrieved 7 November 2015.
- ^ "Venezuela: todas las encuestas indican la caída estrepitosa del gobierno de Maduro". ICN Diario. 12 October 2015. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
- ^ "Keller: Entre votantes seguros, Oposición 59% Oficialismo 25% (encuesta completa)". La Patilla. 25 November 2015. Retrieved 25 November 2015.
- ^ "El voto hacia la AN: Oposición 43,0%, Oficialismo 27,8%, Independientes 11,3% (encuesta IVAD)". La Patilla. 25 November 2015. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
- ^ "El 62,8% cree que si gana el oficialismo la situación del país se mantendrá igual o emperorará (Venebarómetro)". La Patilla. 29 November 2015. Retrieved 29 November 2015.
- ^ "Encuesta Hercon: 65,1% cree que la oposición ganará las elecciones parlamentarias". Venezuela al Día. 28 November 2015. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
- ^ "Mega: Entre votantes seguros, Oposición 63% Oficialismo 28% (encuesta completa)". NTN24. 29 November 2015. Retrieved 25 November 2015.
- ^ a b c d Dreier, Hannah (7 December 2015). "Venezuela's Opposition Wins Control of National Assembly". ABC News. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
- ^ "Venezuela's opposition wins control of National Assembly". Washington Post. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
- ^ "Live Updates: Venezuelan's Wait for Results in Tight National Assembly Elections". TeleSurTV. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
- ^ "Venezuela Opposition Won Majority of National Assembly Seats". Bloomberg. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
- ^ a b "Venezuela opposition wins parliamentary majority". BBC News. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
- ^ "Weaker oil hits rouble, Venezuela bonds up on election". The Economic Times. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.