2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
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The 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election is an upcoming special election. The seat became vacant when incumbent Republican representative Don Young died on March 18, 2022, on a flight home.[1] According to a preliminary plan by Governor Mike Dunleavy, a special primary election is to be held on June 11, while the general election is held alongside the regular primary election on August 16. The filing deadline was on April 1.[2] This will be the first election to use the state's new voting system, in which all candidates compete in a single blanket primary, with the top four candidates advancing to a general election that uses ranked-choice voting.[3]
Candidates
Republican Party
Declared
- Jay R. Armstrong, gold miner[4]
- Nick Begich III, Alaska Policy Forum board member, grandson of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich, and nephew of former U.S. Senator Mark Begich and Alaska Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich[4][5]
- John Callahan, public affairs officer for the Alaska Air National Guard[4][6]
- John Coghill, former majority leader of the Alaskan State Senate (2013–2017), former state senator (2009–2021), former majority leader of the Alaskan House of Representatives (2002–2006), former state representative (1999–2009), son of former Lieutenant Governor Jack Coghill, and U.S. Air Force veteran[4][7]
- Otto Florschutz, former Wrangell Port Commissioner[4]
- Tom Gibbons, business manager[4]
- Robert "Bob" Lyons, case manager[4][8]
- Mikel Melander, blue collar worker[4]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008[4][9]
- Josh Revak, state senator for District M (2019–present) and U.S. Army veteran[4][10][11]
- Maxwell Sumner, homebuilder[4][6]
- Tara Sweeney, former assistant secretary of the Interior for the Bureau of Indian Affairs (2018–2021)[4][12][9]
- Stephen Wright, candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016, candidate for Alaska State Senate in 2020, and U.S. Air Force veteran[4][13]
- Clayton Trotter, college professor[4]
- Bradley Welter[4]
- Joe Woodward[4]
Withdrawn
- Jesse Sumner, member of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough Assembly[4][6]
Declined
- Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (endorsed Sweeney)[14]
Democratic Party
Declared
- Christopher Constant, Anchorage Assembly member since 2017[4][5]
- Mike Milligan, former Kodiak Island Borough Assembly member, Green Party nominee for U.S. House (1992) and lieutenant governor (1998)[4]
- Emil Notti, engineer, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, former chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 1973[4][15]
- Mary Sattler Peltola, former state representative and executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission[4][16]
- Ernest Thomas[4]
- Adam Wool, state representative (2015–present)[4][11]
Declined
- Les Gara, former state representative (2003–2019) (running for governor)[17]
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator (2019–present) (endorsed Constant)[12]
Independent and third-party candidates
Libertarian Party
Declared
- Chris Bye, fishing guide[4]
- J. R. Myers, behavioral health clinician, founder of the Alaska Constitution Party and its nominee for governor in 2014[4]
Alaskan Independence Party
Declared
- John Howe, machinist and Alaskan Independence Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[4]
American Independent Party
Declared
- Robert Ornelas, perennial candidate[4]
Independents
Declared
- Dennis Aguayo[4]
- Brian Beal[4]
- Tim Beck, former Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly member (1998–2004, 2005–2011), candidate for FNSB mayor (2000) and Alaska Senate (2006)[4]
- Gregg Brelsford, lawyer and former Bristol Bay Borough manager (2018–2020)[4][2]
- Robert Brown, veteran[4]
- Arlene Carl, retiree[4]
- Santa Claus, North Pole city councillor (2015–2018, since 2019) and current mayor pro tem[4][11]
- Lady Donna Dutchess, judicial reform activist[4]
- Laurel Foster, paralegal[4]
- Karyn Griffin, political organizer and activist[4][18]
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[4][19]
- Andrew Halcro, former Republican state representative (1998–2003) and Independent candidate for governor of Alaska in 2006[4][12][11]
- Ted Heintz, Corporate Contract Services Professional[4]
- William Hibler III, former glaciologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Democratic candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016 and 2020[4]
- David Hughes, program manager[4]
- Don Knight[4]
- Jeff Lowenfels, attorney and gardening writer[4][12]
- Anne McCabe, former president of the Kenai Peninsula Educational Support Association[4][18]
- Sherry Mettler, businesswoman[4]
- Silvio Pellegrini, cyber security manager, IT project manager, and intelligence analyst for the US Air Force Reserve[4][20]
- David Thistle[4]
- Jason Williams[4]
Withdrawn
Candidates[a]
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Endorsements
Nick Begich III (R)
- State Legislators
- Ben Carpenter, state representative (2019–present)[21]
- Mike Cronk, state representative (2021–present)[21]
- Lynn Gattis, former state representative (2013–2017)[21]
- Ron Gillham, state representative (2021–present)[21]
- Roger Holland, state senator (2021–present)[21]
- Shelley Hughes, Majority Leader of the Alaska Senate (2021–present), state senator (2017–present), and former state representative (2012–2017)[21]
- Pete Kelly, former president of the Alaska Senate (2017–2019) and state senator (2013–2019; 1999–2003)[21]
- Kevin McCabe, state representative (2021–present)[21]
- Ken McCarty, state representative (2021–present)[21]
- Tom McKay, state representative (2021–present)[21]
- Charisse Millett, former Majority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2017–2019) and state representative (2009–2019)[21]
- Mike Prax, state representative (2020–present)[21]
- Mike Shower, state senator (2018–present)[21]
- Sarah Vance, state representative (2019–present)[21]
- Organizations
- Alaska Republican Party[22]
- Alaska Outdoor Council[23][21]
- Americans for Prosperity Alaska[24]
- Anchorage Young Republicans[21]
- Associated Builders and Contractors, Alaska Chapter[21]
- FreedomWorks for America[25]
- Individuals
- Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law[26]
Santa Claus (I)
- State Legislators
- Ray Metcalfe, former state representative (1979–1983) and perennial candidate[27]
Christopher Constant (D)
- U.S. Senators
- Mark Begich, former United States Senator (2009-2015)[28]
- State Legislators
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator (2017-present)[29]
Al Gross (I)
- State Officials
- Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska (1994–2002) and former mayor of Anchorage (1982–1987)[21]
- Fran Ulmer, former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska (1994–2002), former state representative (1987–1994), and former mayor of Juneau (1983–1985)[21]
- State Legislators
- Hollis French, former state senator (2003–2015)[21]
- Beth Kerttula, former House Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2007–2014) and state representative (2007–2014)[21]
- Joe Paskvan, former state senator (2009–2013)[21]
- Sally Smith, former mayor of Juneau (2000–2003) and former state representative (1977–1983)[21]
Sarah Palin (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[30]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[31]
- U.S. federal legislators
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative, New York's 21st congressional district (2015-present) and House Republican Conference Chair (2021-present)[32]
Mary Peltola (D)
Josh Revak (R)
- Individuals
- Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow[34]
Tara Sweeney (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Thomas J. Barrett, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Transportation (2007–2009) and former United States Coast Guard admiral[35]
- State Officials
- Mead Treadwell, former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska (2010–2014)[36]
- Organizations
- ANCSA Regional Association[37]
Primary election
Debates and forums
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
| Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Sattler Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
| 1[38] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council |
N/A | Youtube | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Nick Begich III (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
John Coghill (R) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Andrew Halcro (I) |
Jeff Lowenfels (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Sattler Peltola (D) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Adam Wool (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Results
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General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[39] | Solid R | March 22, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[40] | Likely R | April 14, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] | Likely R | March 24, 2022 |
| Politico[42] | Lean R | April 5, 2022 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich III (R) |
Santa Claus (I) |
Christopher Constant (D) |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Sattler Peltola (D) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – | |
| 2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | ||||||||
| 3 | 53% | 47% | – | |||||||||
| 3*[c] | – | 53% | – | 47% | ||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – | |
| 2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | ||||||||
| 3 | 54% | 46% | – | |||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 27% | 26% | 19% | – | – | |
| 2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | ||||||||
| 3 | 54% | 46% | – | |||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | – | 11% | – | |
| 2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | ||||||||
| 3 | 55% | 45% | – | |||||||||
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Lora Reinbold (R) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
| 2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
| 3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
- Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
- Al Gross vs. Josh Revak
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Al Gross (I) |
Josh Revak (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[A] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Results
By borough
| Borough | TBD Republican |
TBD Democratic |
TBD Independent |
TBD Libertarian |
Margin | Total votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Aleutians East | |||||||||||
| Anchorage | |||||||||||
| Bristol Bay | |||||||||||
| Denali | |||||||||||
| Fairbanks North Star | |||||||||||
| Juneau | |||||||||||
| Kenai Peninsula | |||||||||||
| Ketchikan Gateway | |||||||||||
| Kodiak Island | |||||||||||
| Lake and Peninsula | |||||||||||
| Matanuska-Susitna | |||||||||||
| North Slope | |||||||||||
| Northwest Arctic | |||||||||||
| Petersburg | |||||||||||
| Sitka | |||||||||||
| Skagway | |||||||||||
| Unorganized | |||||||||||
| Wrangell | |||||||||||
| Yakutat | |||||||||||
| Total | |||||||||||
By census areas
| Census Areas | TBD Republican |
TBD Democratic |
TBD Independent |
TBD Libertarian |
Margin | Total votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Aleutians West | |||||||||||
| Bethel | |||||||||||
| Chugach | |||||||||||
| Copper River | |||||||||||
| Dillingham | |||||||||||
| Hoonah-Angoon | |||||||||||
| Kusilvak | |||||||||||
| Nome | |||||||||||
| Prince of Wales-Hyder | |||||||||||
| Southeast Fairbanks | |||||||||||
| Yukon-Koyukuk | |||||||||||
| Total | |||||||||||
Notes
- ^ The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
- ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross
References
- ^ Miller, Andrew Mark (March 18, 2022). "Alaska Republican Congressman Don Young dead at 88". Fox News. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
- ^ a b Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (March 22, 2022). "After Young's death, Alaska's political world braces for a sea change and an elections marathon". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on March 22, 2022. Retrieved March 22, 2022.
- ^ Brooks, James (March 19, 2022). "Alaska's first ranked-choice election will be a special vote to replace Rep. Don Young". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay "2022 Special Primary Election for U.S. Representative". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
- ^ a b "Begich, Constant to Run in Special Alaska US House Election". Associated Press. March 21, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- ^ a b c Samuels, Iris; Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (April 2, 2022). "51 candidates: A wild U.S. House race takes shape in Alaska". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
- ^ Bohrer, Becky (March 28, 2022). "Gross, Coghill say they plan to run for Alaska US House seat". San Francisco Chronicle. Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 29, 2022. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
- ^ "Robert Lyons". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
- ^ a b Ulloa, Jazmine; Peters, Jeremy W. (April 2, 2022). "Sarah Palin Announces She's Running for Congress in Alaska". The New York Times.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (March 23, 2022). "Revak to file for Congress to replace Don Young". Retrieved March 24, 2022.
- ^ a b c d BOHRER, BECKY (April 2, 2022). "Palin joins 50 others in running for Alaska US House seat". Alton Telegraph.
- ^ a b c d Herz, Nathaniel (March 26, 2022). "An array of Alaska politicians ponder bids in the "absolute jungle" of elections to replace U.S. Rep. Don Young". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
- ^ "Stephen Wright (Alaska)". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
- ^ "Alaska's U.S. House candidate field expands as Friday deadline nears". Anchorage Daily News.
- ^ "Emil Notti, who ran against Don Young in 1973, jumps into the race". www.adn.com/. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
- ^ "Candidate list keeps growing with former lawmaker Mary Sattler Peltola". www.adn.com/. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
- ^ Hickman, Matt (March 21, 2022). "Rumors swirl, but Al Gross remains the only newcomer who's a virtual lock to enter race to replace Don Young". Anchorage Press. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
- ^ a b O'Hara, Ashlyn (April 2, 2022). "Soldotna resident joins bid for US House seat". Peninsula Clarion. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
- ^ Matt Hickman (March 19, 2022). "Source: Gross running for Congressional seat vacated by Young's passing". Anchorage Press. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- ^ Pellegrini, Silvio (April 6, 2022). "LinkedIn Profile". LinkedIn.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Downing, Suzanne (April 6, 2022). "Sarah Palin gets national endorsements, as Nick Begich keeps racking up local Alaskan endorsements". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (April 21, 2022). "Nick Begich for Congress receives endorsement of Alaska Republican Party". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
- ^ "Nick Begich III speaks to News of the North". KINY. April 15, 2022. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
- ^ https://mustreadalaska.com/freedomworks-endorses-nick-begich-for-congress/
- ^ https://mustreadalaska.com/freedomworks-endorses-nick-begich-for-congress/
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (April 19, 2022). "Surprise endorsement for Nick Begich for Congress comes from the heart of Palin World". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
- ^ https://mustreadalaska.com/notes-from-the-campaign-trail-iii-abortions-love-language-in-the-media-democrats-queuing-up-someone-to-take-on-murkowski/
- ^ https://mustreadalaska.com/notes-from-the-trail-mark-begich-endorses-chris-constant-for-congress-les-gara-has-a-barbecue-with-vic-fischer/
- ^ https://www.adn.com/opinions/letters/2022/05/05/letter-support-constant/
- ^ "Nikki Haley returns the favor: endorses Sarah Palin for Congress". The Post and Courier. Retrieved April 3, 2022.
- ^ "Trump endorses Palin in Alaska House special election". Politico. April 3, 2022. Retrieved April 3, 2022.
- ^ "Elise Stefanik rolls out latest round of endorsements for 2022 midterm elections". Fox News. Retrieved May 9, 2022.
- ^ https://mustreadalaska.com/notes-from-the-campaign-trail-5000-ballots-are-in-already/
- ^ "Don Young's wife endorses Revak in Alaska House race". The Hill. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
- ^ "Tara Sweeney kicks off campaign for Congress, names campaign manager Karina Waller, others in key positions". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
- ^ "With 64 days to special primary to replace Don Young, congressional candidates are on the move around Alaska". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
- ^ "Revak, Sweeney get endorsements in bid for Alaska House seat". The Seattle Times. Associated Press. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
- ^ "VIDEO: U.S. House hopefuls pitch to resource development groups at candidate forum". Anchorage Daily News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022.
- ^ Wasserman, Dave (March 22, 2022). "Alaska's House Seat Remains in Solid Republican Following Young's Death". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 23, 2022.
- ^ Rubashkin, Jacob (April 14, 2022). "Alaska At-Large Special: Frontier Fiasco". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
- ^ Kondik, Kyle (March 24, 2022). "Notes on the State of Politics: March 24, 2022". Retrieved March 24, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.