2010 Tasmanian state election
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The 2010 Tasmanian state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.[1]
The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament. As in past Tasmania state elections, the proportional Hare-Clark system was used to allocate the 25 seats in the House. Current Labor Premier David Bartlett sought re-election, with the Labor Party having been in government since 1998. They were challenged by the largest opposition party, the Liberal Party, led by Will Hodgman, and The Greens, led by Nick McKim. Other groups contesting the election included the Socialist Alliance as well as various independent candidates, notably Andrew Wilkie standing in Denison.
The Tasmanian Electoral Commission announced that there were 357,315 enrolled electors at the close of rolls.[2] A total of 89 candidates nominated for election.[3]
Dates
On 17 November 2008, David Bartlett announced his government's intention to pass legislation enacting fixed electoral terms for Tasmania, with the next election scheduled to be held on 20 March 2010.[4] It was noted by ABC election analyst Antony Green that the date was the same as the already-legislated South Australian election, and that this may have an effect on media coverage of both elections.[5] The draft legislation for the bill was referred to the Select Committee on the Working Arrangements of Parliament in October 2009, although Bartlett confirmed that the government was committed to the 20 March election date despite the fixed-term legislation not being enacted.[6]
On 12 February 2010, the Premier visited the Governor of Tasmania, Peter Underwood, to request that he dissolve the House of Assembly and issue the writs for the election. The Governor agreed to the following election dates[7]:
- 19 February 2010: Issue of writs and close of electoral rolls
- 4 March 2010: Close of candidate nominations
- 5 March 2010: Announcement of candidate nominations
- 20 March 2010: Polling day
Campaign
On 8 February, the Premier announced that Tasmania's first televised leaders' debate would be held on 14 March between himself and opposition leader Will Hodgman, and would be broadcast nationally by Sky News.[8] At the time of the announcement, Mr Hodgman was not aware of the debate and Greens leader Nick McKim was not invited.[9]
On 10 March, around 100 forest workers protested outside the Greens official campaign launch.[10]
On 12 March, two Liberal and two Labor ex-premiers – Paul Lennon, Michael Field, Robin Gray and Tony Rundle – issued a joint press release warning voters of the dangers of minority government with the Greens holding the balance of power.[11]
In the week before the election, the Labor party distributed leaflets alleging that the Greens had a plan to legalise heroin and give "violent criminals" the right to vote.[12] In addition, 20,000 automated phone calls (robocalls) were made to residents of Braddon repeating these claims about the Greens, although Labor ended the campaign after a public backlash.[13]
On 15 March, David Bartlett said he would resign if the Liberal party won more seats than Labor.[14]
Polling
Polling was conducted every three months by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each poll was 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[15]
| Date | Political parties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | Lib | Grn | Ind | Undecided | |||
| Mar 2010 | 21% | 29% | 22% | 2% | 26% | ||
| Feb 2010 | 23% | 30% | 22% | 2% | 23% | ||
| Nov 2009 | 26% | 37% | 17% | 2% | 19% | ||
| Aug 2009 | 26% | 33% | 17% | 2% | 22% | ||
| May 2009 | 33% | 27% | 13% | 3% | 24% | ||
| Feb 2009 | 34% | 29% | 15% | 2% | 20% | ||
| Nov 2008 | 30% | 26% | 18% | 1% | 23% | ||
| Aug 2008 | 30% | 30% | 16% | 1% | 23% | ||
| May 2008 | 25% | 33% | 18% | 2% | 22% | ||
| Polling conducted by EMRS. | |||||||
| Date | Labor Bartlett |
Liberal Hodgman |
Green McKim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2010 | 29% | 34% | 21% |
| Nov 2009 | 28% | 40% | 19% |
| Aug 2009 | 30% | 37% | 15% |
| May 2009 | 39% | 31% | 13% |
| Feb 2009 | 41% | 29% | 12% |
| Polling conducted by EMRS. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" or "undecided" to any leader. | |||
Results
|
Tasmanian state election, 20 March 2010 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrolled voters | 357,315 | |||||
| Votes cast | 335,353 | Turnout | 93.85 | -1.03 | ||
| Informal votes | 14,915 | Informal | 4.45 | +0.01 | ||
| Summary of votes by party | ||||||
| Party | Primary votes | % | Swing | Seats | Change | |
| Liberal | 124,933 | 38.99 | +7.17 | 10 | +3 | |
| Labor | 118,168 | 36.88 | -12.39 | 10 | -4 | |
| Greens | 69,233 | 21.61 | +4.97 | 5 | +1 | |
| Socialist Alliance | 646 | 0.20 | +0.04 | 0 | 0 | |
| Independent | 7,458 | 2.33 | +0.72 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 320,438 | 25 | ||||
Source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission
Primary vote by division
| Bass | Braddon | Denison | Franklin | Lyons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 34.52% | 40.24% | 36.30% | 30.49% | 42.76% |
| Liberal Party of Australia | 42.64% | 45.19% | 29.79% | 41.17% | 36.10% |
| Tasmanian Greens | 20.95% | 13.76% | 24.89% | 27.35% | 21.14% |
| Other | 1.89% | 0.80% | 9.01% | 0.99% | 0.00% |
Final distribution of seats
Outcome
Labor lost four seats on a swing of 12.37% against it, whilst the Liberals gained three seats and the Greens one — the latter recording their highest ever statewide vote of 21.61%. This meant that both the Labor and Liberal Parties had 10 seats each, meaning neither could form majority government. It took over two weeks for the results to be formally declared, although the number of seats for each party was almost certain by the end of counting on the night of the election and the main question was which representatives of each party would win a seat, with the Hare-Clark and Robson rotation systems meaning that some incumbent members on both sides of parliament were defeated by newcomers from their own party.[16] The only inter-party battles for a seat during the counting process were between the Greens and Liberals for the final seat in Braddon (won by the Greens), and between independent Andrew Wilkie and the Liberals for the final seat in Denison (won by the Liberals).
Attention was then focussed on the positions of the parties. Greens leader Nick McKim declared he was willing to make a deal with either party, whilst Labor leader David Bartlett and Liberal leader Will Hodgman insisted they would stick to promises made before the election not to enter into any deals. Bartlett had also pledged that whoever won the most seats or, in the event of a tie, the most votes would have the right to form a government, and both leaders now claimed this meant that Hodgman had the right to form a ministry.[16] On 1 April, the Labor caucus unanimously agreed to relinquish power, and Bartlett then advised the Governor that Hodgman should be sent for.[17] Former federal Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson called Bartlett "silly" for not negotiating with the Greens.[18]
On 7 April the results were declared, and under the Constitution Act 1934, the Governor of Tasmania, Peter Underwood, had seven days to commission a Government. Ultimately, after speaking to all of the leaders, he recommissioned Bartlett. In an unusual move, he released the detailed reasons for his decision,[19] saying that Bartlett did not have the right to promise power to Hodgman, and that Hodgman was not in a position to form stable government. He regarded as irrelevant the position of the Greens, regarding it as a matter for the Assembly as a whole to test or maintain support for the ministry. Hodgman accused Bartlett of breaking his promise to hand over power, noting that in a letter to the Governor, Bartlett had contradicted a public statement made on 1 April where he had said he would not move any vote of no confidence against a Liberal government.[20] However, Professor Richard Herr of the University of Tasmania believed the Governor's stance was a correct one, as it served the interests of stable government.[21] Constitutional law expert Michael Stokes disagreed, saying too high a bar had been set for the Liberals and Labor had not proven it could deliver stable government in the new Assembly.[22]
On the day before the decision was finalised, the Greens indicated that as no party had shown a willingness to negotiate a deal with them, they would neither initiate nor support a vote of no confidence against the Labor government until a deal with either party could be arranged.[23]
See also
Notes
- ^ "Tasmania election set for March 20". ABC News Online. 12 February 2010. Retrieved 20 March 2010.
- ^ 2010 House of Assembly electoral rolls closed, Tasmanian Electoral Commission, 22 February 2010
- ^ Candidates Announced, Tasmanian Electoral Commission, 5 March 2010
- ^ Fixed term elections legislation, Government of Tasmania, 17 November 2008.
- ^ Green, Antony: Reprise: Fixed Term Parliaments for Tasmania, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 18 November 2010.
- ^ Select Committee Proposed for Fixed-Term Bill, Government of Tasmania, 25 October 2009.
- ^ House of Assembly election dates announced, Tasmanian Electoral Commission, 12 February 2010.
- ^ Premier Announces Election Debate Details, Government of Tasmania, 8 February 2010.
- ^ Tas leaders trade insults over election debates, ABC News, 8 February 2010
- ^ Michael Stedman, Workers crash Greens' launch, The Mercury, 11 March 2010
- ^ Anne Mather, Foes unite on poll fear, The Mercury, 13 March 2010
- ^ Sue Neales, Labor campaign gets dirty, The Mercury, 16 March 2010
- ^ Labor hangs up on anti-Green phone ads, ABC News, 17 March 2010
- ^ Premier to resign if Liberals win more seats, ABC News, 16 March 2010
- ^ EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll, EMRS, November 2009.
- ^ a b "Hodgman in box seat after Tasmania count complete". ABC Online. 31 March 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ "Bartlett's Labor gives up power in Tasmania to Will Hodgman's Liberals". The Australian. 1 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ "'Silly' Labor leader should talk to Greens: Richardson". ABC Online. 30 March 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ Hon Peter Underwood AC (9 April 2010). "The reasons of the Governor of Tasmania for the commissioning of the Honourable David Bartlett to form a government following the 2010 House of Assembly Election" (doc). Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ Ogilvie, Felicity (9 April 2010). "Governor's stinging rebuke for Bartlett". ABC News. Retrieved 10 April 2010. See also Ogilvie, Felicity (9 April 2010). "Tasmanian Governor explains why he picked Labor". [[PM (ABC Radio)|]] (ABC). Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ Hall, Eleanor (7 April 2010). "Analyst predicts minority Labor government - for now". The World Today (ABC). Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ "Law expert questions Governor's decision to reappoint Labor". ABC Online. 10 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ "Labor considers next move". ABC Online. 8 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
External links
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