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Arctic sea ice decline

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This graph shows monthly ice extent anomalies plotted as a time series of percent difference between the extent for the month in question and the mean for that month based on the January 1981 to December 2010 data. The anomaly data points are plotted as plus signs and the trend line is plotted with a dashed grey line. credit: NSIDC

Arctic sea ice decline describes the sea ice loss observed in recent decades in the Arctic. The IPCC AR5 report concluded with high confidence that sea ice continues to decrease in extent and there is robust evidence for the downward trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent since 1979.[1]


Observation

Observation with satellites show that sea ice declines since a few decades in area, extent, and volume and may cease to exist during the summer month sometime during the 21st century. Sea ice extent is the area with at least 15% sea ice, while the volume is the total amount of sea ice. [2]

Ice-free summer?

Because it is very difficult to melt the thick ice around the Canadian Archipelago,[3] an ice-free Arctic Ocean is defined as having less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice.[4][5]

Many scientists have attempted to estimate when the Arctic will be ice-free. In doing so, they have consistently noted that climate model predictions have tended to be overly conservative regarding sea ice decline.[6][7] Wang and Overland, in 2009, predicted that there would be an ice-free Arctic in the summer by 2037.[8] Similarly, a 2006 paper by Marika Holland et al. predicted "near ice-free September conditions by 2040,"[9] and Boé et al. found that the Arctic will probably be ice-free in September before the end of the 21st century.[10]

See also

References

  1. ^ IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013). PDF "Summary for policymakers". {{cite journal}}: Check |url= value (help); Cite journal requires |journal= (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  2. ^ "Daily Updated Time series of Arctic sea ice area and extent derived from SSMI data provided by NERSC". Retrieved 14 September 2013.
  3. ^ http://judithcurry.com/2012/09/17/reflections-on-the-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-part-ii/
  4. ^ http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/07/10/1219716110.abstract
  5. ^ http://phys.org/news/2013-08-ice-free-arctic-2050s.html#inlRlv
  6. ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1002/grl.50316, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1002/grl.50316 instead.
  7. ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1029/2007GL029703, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1029/2007GL029703 instead.
  8. ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1029/2009GL037820, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1029/2009GL037820 instead.
  9. ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1029/2006GL028024, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1029/2006GL028024 instead.
  10. ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1038/ngeo467, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1038/ngeo467 instead.
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