2016 Fort McMurray wildfire

2016 Fort McMurray wildfire Horse River Fire
Fort McMurray residents evacuating along Highway 63 as the fire encroaches on the area
Date(s)	May 1, 2016 (2016-05-01) – present (MDT)
Location	Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada
Statistics
Burned area	248,500 hectares (614,000 acres)
Impacts
Deaths	0 (direct) 2 (indirect)
Non-fatal injuries	0
Structures destroyed	2,900 (as of May 14)

On May 1, 2016, a wildfire began southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. On May 3, it swept through the community, destroying more than 2,900 homes and buildings and forcing the largest wildfire evacuation in Alberta's history. The fire continues to spread across remote forested areas of northern Alberta, and has impacted Canada's oil sand operations. The wildfire may become the costliest disaster in Canadian history.

Progression of fire

The wildfire burning near Fort McMurray on May 1, 2016

A local state of emergency was initially declared May 1 at 9:57 p.m. (03:57 UTC May 2) with the Centennial Trailer Park and the neighbourhoods of Prairie Creek and Gregoire under a mandatory evacuation. The evacuation orders for the two neighbourhoods were reduced to a voluntary stay-in-place order by the night of May 2 as the fire moved southwest and away from the area. However, the mandatory evacuation order was reinstated and expanded to 12 neighbourhoods on May 3 at 5:00 p.m. (23:00 UTC), and to the entirety of Fort McMurray by 6:49 p.m. (00:49 UTC May 4). A further order covering the nearby communities of Anzac, Gregoire Lake Estates, and Fort McMurray First Nation was issued at 9:50 p.m. on May 4 (03:50 UTC May 5). It has been reported that 88,000 people were successfully evacuated, with no reported fatalities or injuries; but two people were killed in a vehicular collision during the evacuation.

On May 4, the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo reported the communities of Beacon Hill, Abasand and Waterways had suffered "serious loss". The Government of Alberta declared a provincial state of emergency, and stated that 1,600 buildings had been destroyed by the fires. It was estimated that 10,000 hectares (25,000 acres) of land had been burned. Evacuees who travelled north of Fort McMurray were advised to stay where they were, and not to come south on Highway 63 as the fire was still burning out of control. A boil-water advisory was issued for the entire area just after 11 a.m. (17:00 UTC). At 4:05 p.m. (22:05 UTC) the fire crossed Highway 63 at Highway 69, south of the city, and threatened the international airport, which had suspended commercial operations earlier in the day. The fire also forced the re-location of the Regional Emergency Operations Centre, which was originally in the vicinity of the airport. On May 4, the fire was found to be producing lightning and pyrocumulus clouds due to its heat and large size, which added to the risk of more fires. The fires became large enough to create a firestorm, creating its own weather in the form of wind influxes and lightning.

Satellite imagery of the burn scar left by the wildfire on May 4, 2016

The fire continued to spread south on May 5 across 85,000 hectares (210,000 acres) and forcing additional evacuations in the communities of Anzac, Gregoire Lake Estates and the Fort McMurray First Nation. These communities had accepted over 8,000 people during the initial evacuations. The Government of Alberta announced a plan to airlift approximately 8,000 of 25,000 people who had evacuated to oil sands work camps north of Fort McMurray, with assistance from a Royal Canadian Air Force Hercules aircraft, and other planes owned by energy companies operating in the oil sands. Government officials would also examine the potential for evacuations via Highway 63 during a flyover. 1,100 personnel, 45 helicopters, 138 pieces of heavy equipment and 22 air tankers were being employed to fight the fire.

On May 6, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police began leading convoys to move 1,500 vehicles from oil sand work camps north of Fort McMurray, south along Highway 63 to Edmonton. The fire continued to grow out of control, spreading to 100,000 hectares (250,000 acres) by May 6, and 156,000 hectares (390,000 acres) by May 7. As the fire grew to the northeast, the community of Fort McKay, which hosted 5,000 evacuees from Fort McMurray, was itself put under an evacuation notice. The fire was anticipated to double in size, and reach the Saskatchewan border to the east.

The wildfire continued to grow through remote forested areas in the following week, covering 240,000 hectares. It is expected to take months to contain and extinguish.

Response and aid

B.C. government reply

The Government of Alberta declared a provincial state of emergency for Fort McMurray and issued a formal request for assistance from the Canadian Armed Forces. The government and the Department of National Defence signed a memorandum of understanding on May 4, detailing required assistance and use of helicopters for rescue operations. Shortly after, a CC-130 Hercules departed CFB Trenton and helicopters were dispatched to the affected area. Alberta also requested assistance from the Government of Ontario, and Ontario committed to sending 100 firefighters and 19 supervisory staff, coordinated through the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Other provinces across the country offered support. On May 5, four CL-415 water bombers from Quebec's SOPFEU (fr) took off from the province to aid in the firefighting effort.

Australia, Israel, Mexico, the Palestinian Authority, Russia, Taiwan, and the United States offered international assistance in battling the fire, though the offers were turned down by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau stated that while the offers were appreciated, they were unnecessary as firefighters from other Canadian provinces were gaining control of the situation.

The Alberta government is providing an initial $1,250 per adult and $500 per dependent to cover living expenses for those who have evacuated. On May 4, the provincial government committed to match donations made to the Canadian Red Cross, as well as to donate an additional $2 million as seed money; the federal government pledged to match all donations to the Canadian Red Cross the next day, with a deadline set to May 31. As of May 9, $54 million has been donated to the Red Cross, not including matching government contributions.

On May 4, Public Safety Canada activated the International Charter Space and Major Disasters, thus providing for the charitable and humanitarian re-tasking of the diverse satellite assets of fifteen space agencies.

On May 13, Justin Trudeau visited Fort McMurray to survey the damage. Trudeau thanked all the first responders and city officials who are helping to put out the fire and promised that there will be ongoing aid from the federal government in the coming months and years, and that "for many years, Fort McMurray contributed huge amounts to Canada’s well-being, to the growth of our economy. Now this community needs help, and I can guarantee you, Canada will be here for this community."

Cause and contributing factors

Officials have currently not determined the cause of the fire, but have stated its starting point was a remote area 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) from Fort McMurray.

During the start of the fire, an unusually hot, dry air mass was in place over Northern Alberta, which brought record-setting temperatures to Fort McMurray. On May 3, the temperature climbed to 32.8 °C (91 °F), accompanied by relative humidity as low as 12%. The situation intensified on May 4 when temperatures reached 31.9 °C (89 °F) and winds gusted to 72 km/h (45 mph). This significantly contributed to the fire's rapid growth. The winter preceding the fires was drier than usual, leaving a paltry snowpack, which melted quickly. Combined with the high temperatures, this created a "perfect storm" of conditions for an explosive wildfire.

Daniel Thompson, a fire research scientist with Natural Resources Canada in Edmonton, told Bloomberg News that the natural El Nino cycle led to a dry fall and winter season along with a warm spring. The weather condition affects fires in a number of regions including Indonesia and northwest United States and Canada. Similar events occurred in 1997-1998. Fire is a natural and necessary component of boreal forest eco-systems. Controversy arose over the discussion that climate change is among the factors causing the fire, particularly given the role that Fort McMurray plays in Alberta's oil sands industry. Some have called it "insensitive" to discuss climate change in such a time, while others have argued that this crisis makes it "more important" to talk about a correlation between human-influenced climate change and wildfires. Canada's politicians and scientists have both cautioned that individual fires cannot specifically be linked to climate change, but agree that it is part of a general trend of more intense wildfires.

Impacts

Satellite images of the fire at day (May 3, 2016) overnight (May 5, 2016), and the area the smoke is affecting (fire in yellow circle)

Aerial view

Communities and infrastructure

Super 8 motel destroyed by the fire

Initial estimates from May 4 indicated that 1,600 structures in Fort McMurray were destroyed. Firefighters worked through May 6 and 7 to hold the line and protect the downtown and remaining homes in Fort McMurray. Damages occurred to the town's power grid. On May 9, this figure was revised to 2,400 structures, but it was stated that about 85 to 90 percent of the city was undamaged.

As of 11:55 a.m. MDT on May 6, the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo had reported the following damage to Fort McMurray's neighbourhoods and nearby communities:

• Anzac – 12 structures lost in the hamlet approximately 36 km (22 mi) to the southeast
• Airport – minor damage to outer structures, primary infrastructures intact
• Abasand – 50 percent loss of homes
• Beacon Hill – 70 percent loss of homes
• Dickinsfield – Two houses lost
• Downtown – One house lost
• Draper – Damage under assessment in this community adjacent to Fort McMurray
• Grayling Terrace – Four houses lost and six damaged
• Gregoire – Unaffected
• North Parsons – Unfinished school lost
• Saline Creek – Unaffected
• Saprae Creek – approximately 30 percent of this hamlet, 11 km (6.8 mi) to the east, has experienced significant damage
• Stone Creek – active fire zone
• Timberlea – 13 trailers lost
  • Blackburn Drive – Three structure fires
  • Walnut Crescent – approximately 15 structure fires
• Thickwood – One house lost
• Waterways – 90 percent loss of homes
• Wood Buffalo – Estimated 30 houses lost

Statistics Canada officially announced suspension of enumeration activities for the 2016 Census in the Fort McMurray area on May 5. Alternative means to collect data from its residents will be determined at a later date.

Oil sands operations

The wildfire has also halted oil sands production at facilities north of Fort McMurray, to which many residents have evacuated. Shell Canada has shut down output at its Albian Sands mining operation, located about 70 kilometres north of Fort McMurray. The company stated its priority was to get employees and their families out of the region, and provide capacity at its work camp for some of the evacuees. Shell also provided its landing strip to fly employees and their families to Calgary or Edmonton and has provided two teams to support firefighting efforts in the area.

Suncor Energy and Syncrude Canada have also scaled back operations. Suncor's Millennium and North Steepbank mines are two of the largest and oldest oilsands mining operations in the Fort McMurray area, and Syncrude's Mildred Lake oilsands mine is located 35 kilometres north of Fort McMurray. The companies have accommodated another 2,000 evacuees each at their work camps. On May 7, Syncrude shut down all site and processing operations, removing 4,800 employees from the area. A quarter of Canada's oil production, equal to approximately one million barrels of oil a day, was halted as a result of the fire.

Financial

Initial insurance payouts are estimated to total as much as CAN$9 billion if the entire community has to be rebuilt. This would make it the most expensive disaster in Canadian history, surpassing the 1998 ice storms in Quebec ($1.9 billion) and the 2013 Alberta floods ($1.8 billion). The 2011 Slave Lake wildfire, which destroyed one-third of the Town of Slave Lake, cost approximately $750 million and was the most expensive fire-related disaster in Canadian history. The larger damage estimates are a result of Fort McMurray being 10 times the size of Slave Lake. A further estimate based on current damage pegs the insurance payouts at $2.6–4.7 billion.

See also

• List of disasters in Canada
• List of fires in Canada
• Boreal forest of Canada

External links

• Fort McMurray, Alberta wildfire - PyroCb Blog, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin
• Google Crisis Map – Fort McMurray Fire 2016
• Current Alberta Wildland Fires