Talk:Chinese government response to COVID-19

Started

Not trying to throw cold water on your project here. Really. But I have to wonder about saying in WikiVoice that China's response "started" in December of 2019. That's disputed. For example, there is the matter of a WIV database to which public online access ended between 2am and 3am on September 12, 2019.[1] Was that a response to the pandemic? That's disputed. Adoring nanny (talk) 18:18, 17 December 2021 (UTC)

I see your point, thanks for making the change. ––FormalDude ^talk 08:39, 20 December 2021 (UTC)

About this article

This current draft article is a result of merging the content from the following locations:

1. National responses to the COVID-19 pandemic#China
2. COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China#Government response
3. China COVID-19 cover-up allegations
   

Any assistance with completing this merge is greatly appreciated. ––FormalDude ^talk 08:44, 20 December 2021 (UTC)

COVID-19 misinformation by China seems like it would have a good deal of useful content too. I think there are far too many COVID-19 articles in general (although understandable, as its the biggest global event in recent history), but I'm not sure which should be merged. --Animalparty! (talk) 08:37, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

I took a look at this draft yesterday. Seems to be in pretty good shape. Maybe get buyoff from a couple more experienced editors, then send 'er to mainspace. All the normal AFC criteria are met, the main thing to watch out for is overlap with other articles. –Novem Linguae (talk) 15:09, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

@Novem Linguae: one remaining issue I can see is the overlap between Draft:Chinese government response to COVID-19#Censorship and police responses and Draft:Chinese government response to COVID-19#Early censorship and police responses. Given the amount of content here, and the fact that it's come from three separate articles, I wouldn't be surprised if there are more overlaps I've missed in my glance over – this does seem to be the main outstanding one though. More eyes are definitely better! Jr8825 • Talk 16:32, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

Subsection "Disinformation and censorship"

Seems this title doesnt represent the active nature of the campaign. Perhaps instead of "censorship" is should say "Disinformation and Supression?" Or some other word? Does "censorship" encompass arresting citizen journalists? Should there be a different section for that? 2600:8804:6600:83:409:66E5:803F:B372 (talk) 14:16, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

Unreliable

The following sources are listed as unreliable at WP:NPPSG and we may want to remove them:

• 69 - sina.com.cn - original content from them is unreliable, syndicated content may be OK, I haven't checked which this is
• 71 - sina.com.cn - original content from them is unreliable, syndicated content may be OK, I haven't checked which this is
• 91 - ibtimes.com
• 133 - nypost.com

–Novem Linguae (talk) 04:50, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

I've fixed the last two, I'm not able to check the sina.com.cn source as it's not in English. ––FormalDude ^talk 09:22, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

They are stated as being reposted articles from 《参考消息》官方网站_参考消息电子版_参考消息报 (cankaoxiaoxi.com) which is a regular (state-controlled?) news website, and a Ningxia provincial government organ 宁夏纪委监委网站 (nxjjjc.gov.cn) respectively. Pieceofmetalwork (talk) 09:34, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

I replaced the Sina sources with some English sources. Jumpytoo Talk 00:39, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

Section headings NPOV

I don't know what interpretation of NPOV you have Thucydides411, but it is beginning to concern me. These are not merely allegations of disinformation and censorship, it is objective evidence of disinformation and censorship. It is not at all broadly disputed among RS. To make it seem like it is disputed is impartial and not balanced. ––FormalDude ^talk 01:04, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

All sorts of information that has nothing to do with misinformation is being lumped together under the label "misinformation". For example, there's a large section that discusses how the Chinese government said that its response to the pandemic was successful. How is that "misinformation"? You may disagree with the Chinese government's claims, but these claims are ultimately subjective. Some people will think that China's low death toll indicates success, while others won't. But it isn't as if one opinion is "misinformation" while the other isn't. -Thucydides411 (talk) 02:27, 25 December 2021 (UTC)to present

There is no part of the disinformation section that "discusses how the Chinese government said that its response to the pandemic was successful."

I do disagree with the Chinese government's claims, which are 100 percent WP:PRIMARY sources and unreliable for that very reason.

Regardless of what we think is object/subjective, there is what the majority of RS claims, and the majority of RS make absolutely clear thaat China has propagated a COVID-19 disinformation campaign. They've been spreading lies and propaganda since the beginning of the pandemic, RS dictates that. It's that simple. Have you read this article or any of its sources? ––FormalDude ^talk 06:42, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

• Given what know of the Chinese government gag orders on Chinese scientists, extreme caution should be exercised when using Chinese scientific publications as sources for claims that are contested by other sources. LondonIP (talk) 01:27, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

Regarding recent removals

Thucydides411 When you make claims such as Remove disinformation sourced to social media speculation, which has been disproven by subsequent high-quality journal articles (diff, also [2][3]) can you provide citations to these journals so people can actually verify your claim. To be clear, this is a request for sources for those three diffs. ProcrastinatingReader (talk) 01:54, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

There are a number of scientific studies of mortality and seroprevalence in China published in high-quality journals. They are incompatible with the social media speciation discussed by various popular news outlets (which are, of course, not particularly reliable sources for scientific information) back in April 2020. One study, published in The BMJ, finds that excess pneumonia deaths in China are fairly close to the official COVID-19 death toll. Other studies have looked at the seroprevalence in China, finding a seroprevalence of only a few percent in Wuhan, and virtually zero outside Hubei province. These seroprevalence figures are consistent with the mortality figures published in The BMJ, and with the official figures, but are inconsistent with the wildly inflated death figures speculated about on social media. We should not be including discredited speculation from social media that was covered back in April 2020 in the popular media. Ironically, that itself would be misinformation. -Thucydides411 (talk) 02:23, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

We cannot delete content just because it doesn't fit the current section title. Wikipedia is a work in progress and it always better to fix problems. If you have good independent sources contradicting existing sources, they can be added for WP:BALANCE, but we need to be mindful of WP:WEIGHT due to the censorship policies barring Chinese scientists from publishing what we'd normally expect them to. LondonIP (talk) 01:41, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

I'm sorry, but it's utterly unacceptable to disregard papers published in leading journals like Nature and The BMJ, simply because of the nationality of the authors. I'm troubled that you would even suggest we do so. If you think that social media speculation covered briefly in popular media in April 2020 should trump peer-reviewed scientific studies in to journals, then take that to WP:RSN. -Thucydides411 (talk) 03:12, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

@FormalDude: Please see the scientific studies that I linked to above, and then please self-revert: [4]. Wikipedia has strong policies about COVID misinformation, and discredited claims about the COVID-19 death toll do not belong in the article. -Thucydides411 (talk) 03:19, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

@Thucydides411: I skimmed the studies, not seeing anything that disproves the content of this section. ––FormalDude ^talk 03:29, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

@FormalDude: The study in The BMJ says that the death toll was approximately 4,600, which disproves the social media speculation about much higher numbers of deaths. The serological studies are consistent with the mortality found by the study in The BMJ.

Back in March/April 2020, various popular media outlets discussed speciation on social media about much higher death tolls. That speculation has been disproven by subsequent scientific studies. In other words, that speculation was misinformation, and we should not include it in this article. -Thucydides411 (talk) 06:05, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

I don't know that that exactly follows WP:NPOV. And this isn't just "social media speculation". It's speculation from "United States intelligence officials, British scientists, and British government officials". I'd like to hear what other editors think though, such as @ProcrastinatingReader. ––FormalDude ^talk 07:02, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

Earlier versions of the article have contained social media speculation: [5] (search for "urns"). I see that you did not restore this paragraph.

However, the speculation from various governments, including the Trump administration, does not belong here. The death toll in China has been well established by subsequent scientific studies (as discussed below in the "Alleged under-counting of cases and deaths" talk page section). This article is about the Chinese government response to COVID-19. I don't see what random, incorrect speculation from various other governments has to do with the subject of this article. -Thucydides411 (talk) 21:20, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

@Thucydides411: I've made this edit as a compromise, let me know what you think. ––FormalDude ^talk 10:26, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

• Some of the material in this section seems to have nothing to do with "Censorship and Propaganda", like the antibody sampling, the fact that asymptomatic cases were reported separately from symptomatic cases, and the Wuhan government revising the number of deaths. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 08:50, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

  I can agree with that. Feel free to move it, if you want. ––FormalDude ^talk 09:05, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

  Done – moved part, removed part that seems too minor to be worth covering. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 09:32, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

"contained the crisis reasonably swiftly"

The intro mentioned praise of China for "containing the crisis reasonably swiftly." Per WP:WIKIVOICE, this definitely needs a counterpoint. This PBS documentary [6] shows, starting just before 1:13:30, a WHO employee stating that the chance to contain the virus was lost because they didn't know it could be transmitted from person to person until too late. I'm not sure the best way to use this, but I do feel it needs to be used. Adoring nanny (talk) 15:33, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

The quote is "It was always going to be very difficult to control this virus, from day one. But by the time we knew that it was transmissible human to human, I think the cat was out of the bag. It had already spread. That was the shot we had, and we lost it." from an interview with Lawrence Gostin, a law professor specializing in public health law. It sounds like he is saying that human-to-human transmission was discovered too late for the virus to be fully contained. I'm not sure how that's relevant to this article, but it might be relevant to some other article about COVID-19. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 15:54, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

Relevant because, as the documentary shows, China spent much of Dec.-Jan. of 2019-20 claiming there was no H-to-H transmission, even though local doctors knew otherwise. Adoring nanny (talk) 16:20, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

China spent much of Dec.-Jan. of 2019-20 claiming there was no H-to-H transmission, even though local doctors knew otherwise – can this claim be cited to reliable sources? If so, it should probably be mentioned in the article (the quote from Gostin doesn't say that though). —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 16:55, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

Much of December 2019? The first cluster of patients was only discovered at the end of December. This can't possibly be true. -Thucydides411 (talk) 17:20, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

Li Wenliang warned his colleagues on 30 December. See his article. Therefore, he must have at least suspected that there was H-to-H transmission. The documentary I linked above (timestamp roughly 11-15 minutes) has doctors noticing a cluster in different locations in "mid December", but they don't specify a date. It has a sample being sent to a lab called Vision Medicals on December 24. Then it has a tech at Vision Medicals isolating a partial genetic sequence of coronavirus similar to SARS on 26 December. According to the documentary, a WeChat post about this was removed from the internet. Also according to the documentary (not sure the timestamp for this part), if a coronavirus can infect humans, H-to-H transmission is possible. These are the earliest instances known in the West. Again according to the documentary, China announced H-to-H transmission on January 20. Adoring nanny (talk) 22:39, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

If the first patient test results came back on 26 December (I think it was actually a day later), the claim that China spent much of December denying human-to-human transmission can't be right. This is even if we unrealistically assume that the Chinese immediately understood a novel virus and its transmission properties. China's initial announcement on 31 December 2019 said that precautions were being taken to prevent transmission, but at the time, whether human-to-human transmission occurred was still anyone's guess.

In any case, the argument that China "contain[ed] the crisis relatively swiftly" is based on the fact that China successfully ended its epidemic in early 2020 and has avoided a second wave. Whether or not you personally think China responded poorly in early January is not really relevant. The various scientific articles calling China's response a success are largely based on what happened from 20 January onwards. -Thucydides411 (talk) 23:31, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

By "much of Dec.-Jan.", I was referring to the period from approximately Dec. 27 to Jan. 20. The lab tech's message did say that what he had found was a coronavirus related to SARS. According to the documentary, if a coronavirus can infect a human, it can be transmitted H-to-H to at least some degree. Hope that clears it up. Adoring nanny (talk) 04:11, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

It's not so simple. The fact that a coronavirus can infect a human does not necessarily mean that it can be efficiently transmitted from person to person. If that were such an automatic assumption, then everyone would have known that there was human-to-human transmission the moment that China announced the existence of a novel coronavirus. There would have been no need for China to even state that there was human-to-human transmission. But of course, not everyone immediately assumed there was human-to-human transmission, because it's not so simple. Many people suspected there might be the possibility of human-to-human transmission, and Wuhan health authorities said they were taking precautions against transmission in hospitals. But knowing and suspecting are two different things. -Thucydides411 (talk) 06:15, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

• According to a very widely cited report by Nick Paton Walsh of CNN, the Chinese doctors knew about H-to-H transmission already in December, but were repressed by the government. The claim that China "contained the crisis reasonably swiftly" should be dated and attributed, and moved into the relevant section in the body. This claim contradicts what independent experts say in independent sources, so we should not give it undue WP:WEIGHT. LondonIP (talk) 01:59, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

That's an opinion source, which greatly weakens its usability. However, the documentary says the same thing in a lot of places, i.e. the 11:00-15:00 passage mentioned above. That we can use. Adoring nanny (talk) 02:41, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

The WaPo is an opinion piece, but the CNN article is a regular news report. I cited the WaPo oped as a secondary source on the CNN report. LondonIP (talk) 03:08, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

Alleged under-counting of cases and deaths

This is a question I've often wondered myself. If China is to be believed, they have one of the lowest fatality rates in the world and were one of the most successful at handling the pandemic. Currently our article contradicts itself: it has two sections about this, and one says they under-counted (Alleged under-counting of cases and deaths), and the other says they didn't under-count (Accuracy of official statistics). Can we get a discussion going about what the best sources say about this? Preferably academic sources. Let's discuss, get a consensus, then make the article consistent. Then we should look into updating in some other places to be consistent too: Undercounting of COVID-19 pandemic deaths by country, Statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China. Thanks. –Novem Linguae (talk) 16:47, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

To my knowledge, high-quality sources say that China contained the virus very successfully by mid-2020.[7][8] Here's a study which used excess mortality data to assess whether deaths caused by COVID-19 went unreported in China outside of Wuhan, and did not find evidence for it: [9]. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 17:31, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

A source by PBS from earlier this year states that the speculation on China's death count is equally as probable (or at least comparable) to the speculation on Western country's death counts. There is no smoking gun pointing to a cover-up by China’s ruling Communist Party. But intentional or not, there is reason to believe that more people died of COVID-19 than the official tally, which stood at 3,312 at the end of Tuesday. The same applies to the 81,554 confirmed cases, now exceeded by the U.S., Italy and Spain. ––FormalDude ^talk 18:33, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

I would avoid speculation in the popular media, and stick to high-quality academic sources. There are actual scientific studies that answer these questions, such as those highlighted by Mx. Granger above. -Thucydides411 (talk) 20:38, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

@Novem Linguae: why should academic sources be preferred when Chinese academics are under government censorship on all COVID-19 related research? In a recent interview with Australia's ABC News, Dominic Dwyer says he is "intrinsically suspicious" of China's fatality rate, and many scientists were sceptical when China raised the death toll in Wuhan by exactly 50%. The NUDT documents leaked to Foreign Policy and 100Reporters also indicate the Chinese Government may be manipulating figures. Since China doesn't count asymptomatic cases, it's not surprising that the Economist estimates the real figures to be 17,000% higher than the official figures. LondonIP (talk) 03:15, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

Academic sources tend to be better sources. This is supported by policy (WP:SOURCETYPES, WP:MEDRS) and it is also in my opinion the best way to cut through the political noise in this topic area. @Thucydides411, want to take a stab at answering this in more detail? You seem to have read the relevant academic documents. –Novem Linguae (talk) 03:26, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

And why would we trust academic sources from a country where the government have imposed gag orders on academics publishing on the specific subject of this page? The gag orders was revealed by published by CNN and AP, and we have other RS like Foreign Policy, ABC News and the New York Times that quote experts saying there may be some fuckery with China's figures. Are we going to throw out those reports in favour of academic works to paint a rosy picture of the Chinese government's response, or present both sets of sources in context of possible censorship on the latter? LondonIP (talk) 03:31, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

I'll let Thucydides answer this part. He's read the sources and seems confident in them. Not all academic papers on this topic are 100% Chinese, you know. Thucydides, what do you think of this argument that "all academic sources on this topic are tainted"? –Novem Linguae (talk) 03:39, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

Highly respected scientific journals like The Lancet and The BMJ are clearly more reliable than news media speculation for epidemiological information. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 18:39, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

Agreed. We trust their editorial process more as well. That is the essence of WP:BESTSOURCES. — Shibbolethink ^{(♔ ♕)} 22:02, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

@Novem Linguae and LondonIP: The NUDT documents leaked to Foreign Policy and 100Reporters also indicate the Chinese Government may be manipulating figures. No, the database does not indicate that. The database contains 640,000 "updates," not "cases," as the Foreign Policy article explains. Updates contain all sorts of information (not just new cases), and the Foreign Policy article explicitly states that the official numbers could be roughly accurate.

Since China doesn't count asymptomatic cases, it's not surprising that the Economist estimates the real figures to be 17,000% higher than the official figures. First of all, China does, in fact, count asymptomatic cases. I can even cite you the numbers from today: 15 asymptomatic cases, one of which is a domestically transmitted case in Wuxi, Jiangsu province, and the other 14 of which are imported cases in quarantine. As for the Economist's estimate, it's a black-box machine-learning model with incredibly wide error bars: it claims that China could have anywhere from -140 thousand (yes, negative 140 thousand) to 1.8 million excess deaths. The Economist is a popular magazine, and its machine-learning estimates are not peer-reviewed. Actual peer-reviewed scientific studies put the death toll at under 5,000 and the seroprevalence near zero outside Wuhan.

This brings me to my last point: no, we're not going to rule out peer-reviewed scientific research published in world-leading journals like The Lancet, Nature and The BMJ, simply because LondonIP doesn't trust Chinese scientists. I think the argument that LondonIP is making here is outrageous. -Thucydides411 (talk) 04:22, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

The Chinese government isn't a reliable source, whereas SCMP is. The could be roughly accurate quote contradicts many other statements in the article, including some in the paragraph you took it from. I would like to hear why you think Chinese academic sources should be preferred over regular reliable sources when CNN and AP have revealed Chinese academics are subject to gag orders on this subject. LondonIP (talk) 18:22, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

The WP:RSP mention for SCMP says (emphasis mine): In the 2020 RFC, there was consensus that the SCMP is generally reliable. However, in addition, there is a rough consensus that additional considerations may apply for the newspaper's coverage of certain topics, including the Chinese Communist Party and the SCMP's current owner, Alibaba. Editors may apply higher scrutiny when dealing with the SCMP's coverage of such topics.

We have no such current consensus on scientific publications published by Chinese nationals academics. For now, I do not believe SCMP would trump scientific journal articles (especially secondary review ones), regardless of who published them. (edited 22:58, 30 December 2021 (UTC)) — Shibbolethink ^{(♔ ♕)} 22:05, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

@Shibbolethink: are you saying that a Chinese government website is a more reliable as a source than the South China Morning Post? Note that my comment citing SCMP was about China counting asymptomatic cases as part of its official case tally, and Thucydides411 hasn't provided any sources from academic journals contradicting this. Besides for the SCMP article, this article from the BBC says that as of Dec 2020, China doesn't count asymptomatic cases for its official case tally. Please please don't copy Thucydides411's claim about Chinese nationals, as what I said was in reference to Chinese academics and Chinese government censorship on academic publications on this subject in specific. LondonIP (talk) 22:46, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

Oh I must have misunderstood. My apologies. I don't think we should cite either the SCMP or official government websites about death tallies, except where we are explicitly stating "This is the official tally." Then I think we should probably cite the official site.

Otherwise I think we need to cite secondary independent sources. My apologies for using nationals instead of academics, I truly do mean "academics from mainland china" but I thought that is what you meant. I disagree, I think we can use publications from such persons. — Shibbolethink ^{(♔ ♕)} 22:57, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

I don't understand why you believe we can use Chinese academic publications when we know they must pass government censors, but you have made your position clear, and I won't respond further. If editors are not going to address the fact that the Chinese government censors Chinese scientists on COVID-19 research, we may need to have a policy discussion in RSN. LondonIP (talk) 20:06, 1 January 2022 (UTC)

I suggest you stop judging scientific articles by the nationalities of the authors. These are not "Chinese academic publications." They are publications in prestigious scientific journals like Nature, The BMJ and The Lancet. The nationalities of the authors are irrelevant, and suggesting that we start ruling out publications because of the authors' nationalities is truly outrageous. You really have to stop. -Thucydides411 (talk) 21:27, 1 January 2022 (UTC)

@LondonIP: as of Dec 2020, China doesn't count asymptomatic cases for its official case tally: China counts asymptomatic infections, and reports them separately from symptomatic cases (note that strictly speaking, an asymptomatic infection is not a case of CoVID-19, since CoVID-19 is the disease caused by infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus). Above, I linked to the official daily count for 0-24 o'clock, 28 December 2021. As you can see, it counts asymptomatic infections:

31个省（自治区、直辖市）和新疆生产建设兵团报告新增无症状感染者15例，其中境外输入14例，本土1例（在江苏无锡市）；当日转为确诊病例7例（均为境外输入）；当日解除医学观察8例（均为境外输入）；尚在医学观察的无症状感染者496例（境外输入466例）。

This translates to:

31 provinces (autonomous regions and directly governed municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 15 new asymptomatic infections, of which 14 were imported from abroad and one was locally transmitted (in Wuxi, Jiangsu); 7 asymptomatic infections were converted to confirmed cases [my explanation: this means asymptomatic people became symptomatic] (all imported cases); 8 asymptomatic people were released from medical observation (all imported cases); 496 people with asymptomatic infection were still under observation (466 of which were imported cases).

That being said, I think we should definitely present both the official tallies and the results of scientific studies into excess pneumonia mortality and serology. We should make clear why these numbers are different: around the world, serology almost always gives much higher numbers than official counts, because not everyone who is infected with SARS-CoV-2 gets tested. The fraction of people who got tested early on in the pandemic, when testing was extremely limited, was even smaller.

Below, I've cited serological studies published in The Lancet Regional Health Western Pacific (this is the study referenced in the BBC article you linked to) and Nature. As far as I know, these are the best studies on the topic, and most of the authors are Chinese. We're not in a position to tell Nature that we know better, and that Chinese academics are unreliable. Top scientific journals with expert peer review have deemed this research to be worthy of publication in their pages. Also recall that Wikipedia is a global project, and a discriminatory sourcing policy that labels scientists of a particular nationality untrustworthy, regardless of where they publish, would be odious. -Thucydides411 (talk) 02:35, 31 December 2021 (UTC)

Again you link to a Chinese government website and papers from Chinese academics, contradicting sources like the BBC, SCMP, and even Caixin. I did not reject Chinese academics because of their nationality, but because they are being censored by the Chinese government on what they can publish on COVID-19, as evidenced by CNN and AP reports. I checked the Lancet and Nature articles you cited, and neither of them state that China's tally includes asymptomatic cases, therefore your claim is WP:OR. LondonIP (talk) 19:44, 1 January 2022 (UTC)

Again you link to a Chinese government website: You claimed that the Chinese government doesn't count asymptomatic infections. The easiest way to prove that wrong is to link directly to the official daily tally published by the Chinese government, which reports asymptomatic infections. We're talking about what the Chinese government says, so quoting a Chinese government website is perfectly acceptable. In fact, that's the most direct way to see what the Chinese government is saying.

I checked the Lancet and Nature articles you cited, and neither of them state that China's tally includes asymptomatic cases, therefore your claim is WP:OR. This entire discussion about asymptomatic infections began with your WP:OR argument that The Economist's estimate of excess mortality is higher than China's official figures because of asymptomatic infections (again, note that The Economist is not a scientific publication, its estimate is not peer reviewed, and the estimate has enormous error bars that go down to negative 140 thousand - it's a machine-learning model that is crudely extrapolating from other countries with completely different policies to China). I pointed out that you're wrong about the counting of asymptomatic infections. They are counted and published. They're just published separately from cases, which are, by definition, symptomatic (this has to do with the distinction between the virus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease COVID-19). But I agree that we should keep away from any sort of WP:OR in the article, and I haven't included any. We should just summarize what the best scientific sources say. That's what I've tried to do in the article.

I did not reject Chinese academics because of their nationality: Yes, you did. However you justify it, what you're saying is that we cannot cite papers published by prestigious journals like Nature, The BMJ and The Lancet if the authors are Chinese. That's an outrageous thing to suggest, and I'm shocked that you're making this argument openly. -Thucydides411 (talk) 21:43, 1 January 2022 (UTC)

You claimed that the Chinese government doesn't count asymptomatic infections. No its not me that claims that. Its reliable sources like the SCMP, BBC, and even Caixin (which I wouldn't normally use for this topic, as they too are subject to the Chinese government censor on this subject).

The easiest way to prove that wrong is to link directly to the official daily tally published by the Chinese government. Not it most definitely is not. See WP:INDEPENDENT. This is a basic policy an editor with 18 years of experience like yourself should know.

This entire discussion about asymptomatic infections began with your WP:OR argument No, I have 1) provided three sources (ABC News, Foreign Policy, and the Economist) questioning the accuracy of China's official figures, and 2) provided three sources stating China doesn't include asymptomatic cases in its official case tally. Can you show me where any of your scholarly sources specifically state China does include asymptomatic cases in its official case tally? Please quote the exact text here.

what you're saying is that we cannot cite papers published by prestigious journals like Nature, The BMJ and The Lancet if the authors are Chinese. No, what I said was that Chinese academics are under government censorship on all COVID-19 related research. The Associated Press reports that under direct orders from President Xi Jinping, academics communication and publication of research has to be orchestrated like “a game of chess”, warning that those who publish without permission shall be held accountable [10]. China has a dismal record on academic freedom, and many Chinese academics face harsh punitive measures when they step out of line [11] [12] [13] [14]. For these reasons, we would also not accept scholarship from Chinese academics on 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre or Traditional Chinese medicine where they contradict mainstream sources. LondonIP (talk) 01:48, 2 January 2022 (UTC)

If we're discussing whether the Chinese government says X, then an official Chinese government statement saying X is absolutely a reliable source for the fact that the Chinese government said X (the relevant policy is WP:ABOUTSELF). You've said that the Chinese government does not report asymptomatic cases. I've directly shown you that they do, by citing the official daily report. Here are the numbers from today, from the official daily report published by China's National Health Commission: 29 asymptomatic infections. The Chinese government classifies asymptomatic infections differently from cases (which are symptomatic), but it does count and publish them. In any case, this whole discussion is a bit of a sidetrack. I don't see how it will alter the text of the article.

we would also not accept scholarship from Chinese academics on 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre or Traditional Chinese medicine where they contradict mainstream sources: We wouldn't accept scholarship that contradicts mainstream sources (except, possibly to illustrate a minority view, in line with WP:WEIGHT), regardless of the nationality of the scholars. If a Chinese scholar publishes an article on the Tiananmen Square protests in a respected, peer-reviewed journal, then we absolutely would be able to use that article as a source. When work by Chinese scientists passes peer review at internationally renowned scientific journals like The Lancet, Nature or The BMJ, there's no question that we can cite that work. Frankly, Wikipedia editors not in a position to overrule the decisions made by these journals about what is and is not good scientific research. If you think research by Chinese scientists can't be trusted, then write to the editors of The Lancet and make your case. At Wikipedia, we are not about to start discriminating on the basis of nationality when it comes to sourcing. -Thucydides411 (talk) 02:28, 2 January 2022 (UTC)

Expanding on what Mx. Granger wrote above, there are several scientific studies of both excess mortality and seroprevalence (i.e., the percentage of people who have been infected) in China. In particular, The BMJ published a scientific study of excess mortality in China: [15]. Some of the key findings:

• 4573 excess pneumonia deaths in Wuhan: In Wuhan city (13 districts), 5954 additional (4573 pneumonia) deaths occurred in 2020 compared with 2019
• Outside of Wuhan, there was no measurable increase in pneumonia deaths: In other parts of Hubei province (19 DSP areas), the observed mortality rates from pneumonia and chronic respiratory diseases were non-significantly 28% and 23% lower than the predicted rates, despite excess deaths from covid-19 related pneumonia. Outside Hubei (583 DSP areas), the observed total mortality rate was non-significantly lower than the predicted rate (675 v 715 per 100 000), with significantly lower death rates from pneumonia (0.53, 0.46 to 0.63)

The initial outbreak in China was heavily concentrated in Wuhan and the surrounding cities. It had a measurable impact on mortality there. However, outside of that immediate area, there were actually fewer pneumonia deaths than normal, probably because the lockdown measures stopped flu transmission as well. The small number of COVID-19 deaths outside of Wuhan were more than offset by the large decrease in flu deaths.

There are also several studies on seroprevalence, which paint the same picture as the excess mortality figures. For example, a study published in The Lancet Regional Health Western Pacific finds that the initial outbreak was heavily concentrated in Wuhan:

• Wuhan had the highest weighted seroprevalence (4.43%, 95% confidence interval 95%CI 3.48%-5.62%), followed by Hubei-ex-Wuhan (0.44%, 95%CI 0.26%-0.76%), and the other provinces (<0.1%).
• The low overall extent of infection and steep gradient of seropositivity from Wuhan to the outer provinces provide evidence supporting the success of containment of the first wave of COVID-19 in China. SARS-CoV-2 infection was largely asymptomatic, emphasizing the importance of active case finding and physical distancing. Virtually the entire population of China remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2; vaccination will be needed for long-term protection.

Other studies, such as this one in Nature, have similar findings.

Since the initial outbreak was contained, China has not had a major outbreak on anywhere near the same scale as what happened in Wuhan. China had one serious outbreak (i.e., the first outbreak in Wuhan) that was concentrated in one province (and within the province, concentrated in one city), which peaked in early February 2020 and completely ended in April 2020. Since then, the country has followed a zero-COVID strategy (which you can read about in this scientific paper, for example), like New Zealand and Australia did for much of the pandemic. That's why the death figures are so low, in comparison to other countries that have pursued a very different strategy (mitigation). -Thucydides411 (talk) 21:03, 26 December 2021 (UTC)

• Here's a study from Nature that found "successful control in China was achieved through reducing the contact rates among people in the general population and increasing the rate of detection and quarantine of the infectious cases."

Looking at all the sources shown in this section, I think this paints a picture that the scientific consensus is China's death and case counts are likely not inflated and their government was largely able to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. If others agree, the next step is how do we go about making that clear in the article? ––FormalDude ^talk 00:24, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

@FormalDude: there are certainly scientists who don't think there is any cover-up of figures, but there isn't a scientific consensus, and scientists aren't the only relevant experts for this subject. Scientists do not have psychic powers, so if the figures are being censored, and basing our position on their opinions would present a WP:WEIGHT problem. There is a broad consensus among all relevant experts that the reported figures from the early outbreak were wrong, and even the Chinese CDC have admitted that and adjusted those figures, but there is more ambiguity with more recent figures. China is the only country that doesn't count asymptomatic cases, which is reportedly part of a propaganda campaign to make the government look good. LondonIP (talk) 03:27, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

Note that China does, in fact, report asymptomatic cases. There were 15 today.

the reported figures from the early outbreak were wrong: Define "wrong." Did China detect every case early on? Definitely not. No country even came close to detecting every case early on. Testing was extremely limited, and many (probably most) people with mild symptoms never even got tested. But thanks to seroprevalence studies (which I have cited above), we now have good estimates of the total number of infections.

even the Chinese CDC have admitted that and adjusted those figures: The China CDC didn't "admit" any sort of cover-up. In the first wave in Wuhan, when testing was limited, there were people who died without ever having a positive test. Those cases were investigated after-the-fact, and the CoVID-19 death toll was adjusted upwards accordingly. Similar adjustments occurred early on in US states. -Thucydides411 (talk) 04:53, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

Making Accuracy of COVID statistics more NPOV

What changes can we make to this section to come closer to a neutrally written article? Thucydides411 has an issue with the due weight, and has tagged the section for fringe viewpoints. There's at least some objection to that, including partially from myself. I'm open to any ideas though for removing or adding content, so long as they're well justified and sourced. ––FormalDude ^talk 06:33, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

We appear to have a consensus above that China is not fudging their statistics. Therefore I agree with the fringe tag. The section should probably be re-written with several paragraphs at the beginning stating how they are not fudging their statistics, with citations, then a paragraph or two at the end about how they have been accused of fudging their statistics but that this does not agree with the scientific consensus. –Novem Linguae (talk) 06:57, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

I would prefer moving the claims of fudging to the "International Reactions" subsection, since they mainly come from the US and UK governments. Alternatively, we could rename the subsection "Case count and death toll", and refocus it on the official numbers and scientific results about mortality and seroprevalence. -Thucydides411 (talk) 14:00, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

I would agree with such a move. If these claims are in RSes, which I believe they are (and not just SCMP etc), then they are WP:DUE. But they should be placed in the context of the countries making the claims, and attributed to those governments. We could have a subsection 'Case count and death toll' and I would agree it should be based in official sources and scientific papers. Not on aspersions cast by other governments. — Shibbolethink ^{(♔ ♕)} 22:08, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

@Novem Linguae: I would not characterise the above discussion as a consensus that China is not fudging their statistics, and you didn't answer my question about the Chinese government's reported gagging academics publishing on this subject. I am not opposed to Thucydides411's idea to move the section, but I think it is more suited for the Censorship and Propaganda section. LondonIP (talk) 18:30, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

Moving it to the "Censorship and Propaganda" section would imply that the accusations about much higher death tolls are correct. Yet those accusations are at odds with the results of scientific studies on the subject (see the above talk page section). Scientifically speaking, the accusations represent a WP:FRINGE view. -Thucydides411 (talk) 02:46, 31 December 2021 (UTC)

@Thucydides411: I'd like Novem Linguae to reply here as they he deferred to you when I have asked them the Chinese government's censorship policy. Consensus has to be based on policy, not a counting of heads. As for the Censorship and Propaganda section, not all the claims there are stated as matter of fact. LondonIP (talk) 20:02, 1 January 2022 (UTC)

I've moved a portion of the section to International reactions. Please feel free to tweak my edit. ––FormalDude ^talk 03:32, 31 December 2021 (UTC)

Material not relevant to this article

The article currently contains the following paragraph:

During the pandemic, no reports of cases of the COVID-19 in Xinjiang prisons or of conditions in the Xinjiang internment camps emerged. Anna Hayes, senior lecturer in politics and international relations of Australia's James Cook University, expressed concern about possible spread in the camps.

This paragraph isn't about the Chinese government response to COVID-19, so it isn't relevant to this article. It seems to be left over from the merge from the "cover-up" article, which was to some extent a WP:COATRACK of miscellaneous negative material. I removed the paragraph from this article but was reverted. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 10:39, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

I agree with the concern of coatracking (this article has a very high chance of going that way), but I think that section is relevant here. After all, how they manage the camps during the pandemic (such as the information they produce of conditions there related to the disease) is part of their response to the pandemic, in my opinion. Santacruz ⁂ Please ping me! 10:51, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

@A. C. Santacruz: If we can find sources about how the Chinese government has managed the camps in light of the pandemic, that would be worth including in the article, but the quoted paragraph doesn't discuss that. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 10:57, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

How is it not related? Are the Xinjiang internment camps not a part of China? Of course they are, and of course they would be covered in an encyclopedic article about their government's response to a pandemic. All you've done is identify it as negative material, which is not alone a reason for removal. So please elaborate. ––FormalDude ^talk 10:52, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

The camps are a part of China, but the quoted material is not a part of the Chinese government response to COVID-19. In contrast, if we had reliably sourced information about what steps the Chinese government has taken to avoid the spread of COVID-19 in the camps, that would be relevant to this article. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 10:57, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

The source cited for those sections says the following (within the reference, which seems like bad practice and perhaps should be altered): No reports have emerged of conditions in the facilities since the outbreak began. But former detainees have previously described poor food and sanitation and little help for those who fell ill.{...}"According to my personal experience in the concentration camp, they never helped anyone or provided any medical support for any kind of disease or health condition," said Ms. Sauytbay, who fled to Kazakhstan two years ago, in a phone interview this month. "If the coronavirus spread inside the camps, they would not help, they would not provide any medical support."{...}Now the region is being jolted back to work. Labor transfer programs, in which large numbers of Uighurs and other predominately Muslim minorities are sent to work in other parts of Xinjiang and the rest of China, have resumed in recent weeks. The Chinese government's lack of medical care in these camps would be part of their response to the pandemic. Santacruz ⁂ Please ping me! 11:38, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

It would be, if we had a reliable source saying that the Chinese government hasn't allowed medical care in the camps in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. But the passage you've quoted doesn't say that – it just reports speculation based on someone's experience in a camp long before the pandemic started. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 12:05, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

It's not just speculation from someone's experience in a camp... it's speculation from subject-matter experts, people who have been studying both pandemics and the Xinjiang internment camps. ––FormalDude ^talk 23:30, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

I would support including something about the camps and the lack of COVID-19 statistics coming out of them, as this seems like an obvious area where China is not being honest with their reporting. However, the cited source is quite unconvincing, as it is essentially some former detainee guessing about it. I wonder if we can find a better source, perhaps a human rights organization such as Amnesty International reporting on this issue. –Novem Linguae (talk) 13:42, 27 December 2021 (UTC)

Xinjiang has had very few cases at all, so the fact that there hasn't been any substantial outbreak reported in reeducation camps is unsurprising. I agree with Mx. Granger that this paragraph is out of place in this article. The information content added by this speculation is basically zero. -Thucydides411 (talk) 01:09, 28 December 2021 (UTC)

Good point. Xinjiang having almost no cases is pretty convincing. Do we have a source for that? –Novem Linguae (talk) 04:26, 28 December 2021 (UTC)

We have an article COVID-19 pandemic in Xinjiang, which says there were a total of 902 confirmed cases (out of a population of about 26 million) as of August 2020. Like most other provinces of China, this is a very low case count by international standards. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 07:58, 28 December 2021 (UTC)

Large Covid outbreak in China linked to Xinjiang forced labour. More than 180 cases traced to garment factory where Uighurs must take up work placements. ––FormalDude ^talk 08:08, 28 December 2021 (UTC)

180 cases – a large outbreak by Chinese standards, but very small by international standards. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 08:23, 28 December 2021 (UTC)

No doubting that. Still think it might be due weight for this article. ––FormalDude ^talk 08:45, 28 December 2021 (UTC)

This discussion has gotten a bit sidetracked talking about reported case numbers in Xinjiang, but the paragraph in question remains irrelevant to this article, because the paragraph isn't about the Chinese government's response to COVID-19. I suggest we move the paragraph to COVID-19 pandemic in Xinjiang. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 17:49, 29 December 2021 (UTC)

Seeing no objection, I will go ahead and implement this. Hopefully this will work as a compromise. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 18:29, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

Good compromise, I support it. But I would also say that simply stating that there are no current statistics from the camps in this article would be WP:DUE. If we use the above sources to do it. — Shibbolethink ^{(♔ ♕)} 22:10, 30 December 2021 (UTC)

I agree with Shibbolethink. Please don't take silence as agreement. ––FormalDude ^talk 07:48, 31 December 2021 (UTC)

Not sure if you mean you agree about the compromise or you agree about due weight, but it seems to me this is not a due weight issue so much as a relevance issue. This article is specifically focused on the Chinese government response to COVID-19, not other information about COVID-19 in China. In any case, hopefully we can all agree that the material in question fits better in the article where it is now covered, and hopefully the compromise is satisfactory enough for us to move on from this issue. —Mx. Granger (talk · contribs) 17:01, 31 December 2021 (UTC)

I agree with the compromise here. LondonIP (talk) 20:04, 1 January 2022 (UTC)