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2023 Alberta general election

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2023 Alberta general election
← 2019 Scheduled for May 29, 2023 (Scheduled for May 29, 2023)
All 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta
44 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Danielle Smith 2014.jpg
Rachel Notley crop.jpg
Leader Danielle Smith Rachel Notley
Party United Conservative New Democratic
Leader since October 6, 2022 October 18, 2014
Leader's seat Brooks-Medicine Hat Edmonton-Strathcona
Last election 63 seats, 54.88% 24 seats, 32.67%
Current seats 60 23
Seats needed Steady Increase21
 
Barry Morishita in 2020.jpg
 WIP
Leader Barry Morishita Jeevan Mangat
(interim)
Party Alberta Party Wildrose Independence
Leader since August 31, 2021 October 21, 2022
Leader's seat Running in Brooks-Medicine Hat[1] Running in TBD
Last election 0 seats, 9.08% New party
Current seats 0 0
Seats needed Increase44 Increase44
Incumbent Premier

Danielle Smith
United Conservative



The 2023 Alberta general election is scheduled by law to be held on Monday May 29, 2023.[2] to elect the members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta. Election dates are fixed under Alberta's Election Act, but that does not affect the powers of the lieutenant governor of Alberta to specify a different day in accordance with provisions in the aforementioned act, the Constitution of Canada and the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

Background

In the 2019 general election, the United Conservative Party (UCP) under the leadership of Jason Kenney defeated incumbent Premier Rachel Notley and her New Democratic Party (NDP). During the ensuing 30th Alberta Legislature the UCP formed a majority government with Kenney as premier. Notley and the NDP formed the Official Opposition. No other party won a seat, even though the Alberta Party had received 9% of the vote. In preparation for the next general election, the government adopted the Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2021 (No. 2) (Bill 81 of the second session). The amendments altered the fixed election date to be the last Monday in May unless the lieutenant governor dissolves the Legislature sooner; raised election spending limits for political parties and for nomination contestants; and prohibited third-party advertisers who have a certain type of affiliation to a political party.[3]

Timeline

2019

2020

2021

  • January 4: Six UCP MLAs are demoted by Jason Kenney for travelling internationally during the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta.[17]
  • January 14: Pat Rehn is removed from the UCP caucus to sit as an independent. Jason Kenney cited a lack of constituency work as the reason for the removal.[18]
  • March 6: John Roggeveen is appointed interim leader of the Alberta Liberal Party.[19]
  • April 7: 17 UCP MLAs sign an open letter criticizing the Alberta government for reimposing more stringent public health restrictions aimed at combatting COVID-19.[20][21]
  • May 13: UCP MLA Todd Loewen resigns as UCP Caucus Chair and releases a letter calling on Jason Kenney to resign.[22] Loewen and Drew Barnes are expelled from the UCP caucus through a caucus-wide vote. Both MLAs had criticized the UCP government's response to COVID-19. Both would sit as independent MLA's.[23][24]
  • July 13: Paul Hinman is elected leader of the WIP.[25]
  • July 14: Pat Rehn, Independent MLA for Lesser Slave Lake rejoins the UCP Caucus.[26][27]
  • August 15: Laila Goodridge resigns as the UCP MLA for Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche to run in the 2021 Canadian federal election.[28]
  • August 31: Barry Morishita is acclaimed as leader of the Alberta Party.[29]
  • November 15: 22 UCP constituency associations announce they have passed special motions calling for a review of Jason Kenney's leadership by March 1, 2022.[30]
  • December 21: NDP MLA Thomas Dang resigns from the NDP caucus after the RCMP search his home.[31]

2022

Incumbent MLAs not seeking re-election

The following MLAs have announced that they would not run in the 2023 provincial election:

Note: MLA Rajan Sawhney declared initially she would not seek re-election in her own riding of Calgary-North East but was then appointed as the UCP candidate in Calgary-North West.

Retiring incumbent Electoral district Subsequent party nominee Elected MLA
  Thomas Dang[47] Independent[a] Edmonton-South Rhiannon Hoyle
  Deron Bilous[48] New Democratic Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Peggy Wright
  Jon Carson New Democratic Edmonton-West Henday Brooks Arcand-Paul
  Richard Feehan[49] New Democratic Edmonton-Rutherford Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse
  Leela Aheer[50] United Conservative Chestermere-Strathmore Chantelle de Jonge
  Richard Gotfried[51] United Conservative Calgary-Fish Creek Myles McDougall
  Ron Orr[52] United Conservative Lacombe-Ponoka Jennifer Johnson
  Pat Rehn[53] United Conservative Lesser Slave Lake Scott Sinclair
  Roger Reid[54] United Conservative Livingstone-Macleod Chelsae Petrovic
  Brad Rutherford United Conservative Leduc-Beaumont Brandon Lunty
  Mark Smith United Conservative Drayton Valley-Devon Andrew Boitchenko
  Sonya Savage[55] United Conservative Calgary-North West Rajan Sawhney[56]
Rajan Sawhney[57] United Conservative Calgary-North East Inderjit Grewal
  Travis Toews[58] United Conservative Grande Prairie-Wapiti Ron Wiebe
  Tracy Allard[59] United Conservative Grande Prairie Nolan Dyck

The following MLAs lost nomination races:[60]

Outgoing incumbent Electoral district Subsequent party nominee Elected MLA
  Dave Hanson United Conservative Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Scott Cyr
  Tany Yao United Conservative Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Zulkifl Mujahid
  Chris Nielsen New Democratic Edmonton-Decore Sharif Haji

Opinion polling

Template:Import-blanktable

Voting intentions in Alberta since the 2019 election

The following is a list of published opinion polls of voter intentions.

Pollster Client Dates
conducted 		Source UCP NDP Alberta Liberal IPA Green WIP Others Margin of error Sample
size 		Polling
method 		Lead
Leger N/A Mar 24–27, 2023 [p 1] 44% 47% 2% 3% — — 1% 2% 3.1% 1,001 Online 3%
Mainstreet Research N/A Mar 21–22, 2023 [p 2] 45% 45.9% 3.2% — — — 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% 1,108 IVR 0.9%
Innovative Research N/A Mar 2–20, 2023 [p 3] 39% 40% 5% 7% — 6% 4% 0% N/A 489 Online 1%
ThinkHQ N/A Mar 14–16, 2023 [p 4] 45% 46% 6% 2% — — — 1% 2.9% 1,122 Online 1%
Angus Reid N/A Mar 6–13, 2023 [p 5] 49% 42% 4% 2% — — 2% 1% 3% 827 Online 7%
Abacus Data N/A Mar 2–4, 2023 [p 6] 45% 45% 6% — — — — 4% 3.8% 700 Online Tie
Leger Postmedia Feb 10–12, 2023 [p 7] 43% 47% 2% 4% — — 2% 2% 3.1% 1,002 Online 4%
Pivotal Research N/A Jan 31–Feb 7, 2023 [p 8][p 9] 42% 46% 6% 6% — — 1% — 4.8% 662 Online 4%
Abacus Data N/A Feb 1–6, 2023 [p 10] 47% 45% 5% — — — — 3% 3.1% 1,000 Online 2%
ThinkHQ N/A Jan 19–20, 2023 [p 11] 48% 45% 4% — — — — 1% 2.9% 1,144 Online 3%
Mainstreet Research N/A Jan 19–20, 2023 [p 12] 45.6% 41.3% 5.9% — — — 3.6% 3.6% 3.9% 646 Smart IVR 4.3%
Abacus Data N/A Dec 6–10, 2022 [p 13] 43% 51% 3% — — — — 3% 3.1% 1,000 Online 8%
December 8, 2022 Danielle Smith's UCP government passes the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act.
Mainstreet Research N/A Dec 2–3, 2022 [p 14] 47% 45% 3.8% — — — 0.8% 3.3% 4% 615 IVR 2%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 28–Dec 3, 2022 [p 15] 48% 44% 5% 1% — — 1% 1% 4% 591 Online 4%
Leger Postmedia Nov 24–28, 2022 [p 16] 44% 47% 2% 4% — — 2% 2% 3.1% 1,001 Online 3%
Janet Brown Opinion Research CBC Oct 12–30, 2022 [p 17] 38% 47% 3% 2% 1% <1% 1% 8% 2.8% 1,200 Telephone 9%
Navigator Ltd. N/A Oct 7–11, 2022 [p 18] 38% 53% 4% — — — — 5% 3.5% 1,002 Online 15%
Leger Postmedia Oct 7–10, 2022 [p 19] 42% 44% 3% 4% — — 4% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 2%
October 6, 2022 Danielle Smith elected leader of the UCP and is appointed premier on October 11th.
Angus Reid N/A Sep 19–21, 2022 [p 20][p 21] 47% 41% 4% 2% — — 5% 1% 3% 598 Online 6%
Leger Postmedia Sep 1–5, 2022 [p 22] 44% 41% 4% 2% — — 4% 3% 3.1% 1,006 Online 3%
Leger Postmedia July 15–17, 2022 [p 23] 41% 45% 5% 2% — — 4% 3% 3.1% 1,025 Online 4%
Angus Reid N/A June 7–13, 2022 [p 24] 42% 40% 6% 2% — — 9% 2% 4% 592 Online 2%
Counsel N/A June 8–11, 2022 [p 25] 37% 42% 5% — — — 8% 9% 3.5% 788 Online 5%
Leger N/A May 20–23, 2022 [p 26] 42% 40% 3% 3% — — 5% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 2%
May 18, 2022 Jason Kenney announced his intention to resign as premier of Alberta and leader of the UCP.
ThinkHQ N/A Mar 29–April 1, 2022 [p 27] 34% 46% 5% 2% — — 13% 2% 2.9% 1,135 Online 12%
Mainstreet Research N/A Mar 23–24, 2022 [p 28] 37% 40% 6% 2% — 1% 9% 4% 3% 1,290 IVR 3%
Leger N/A Mar 18–20, 2022 [p 29] 35% 44% 3% 4% — — 8% 6% 3.1% 1,002 Online 9%
Angus Reid N/A Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 30][p 31] 38% 40% 6% 2% — — 11% 3% 4% 584 Online 2%
Research Co. N/A Mar 11–13, 2022 [p 32] 30% 45% 7% 5% 1% 3% 8% 1% 4% 600 Online 15%
Janet Brown Opinion Research N/A Feb 25–March 10, 2022 [p 33] 40% 36% — — — — — — 3.3% 900 Telephone 4%
Yorkville Strategies N/A Mar 3–9, 2022 [p 34] 44% 39% 4% 3% — — 8% 2% 4% 600 Telephone 5%
Angus Reid N/A Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 35] 31% 42% 8% 1% — — 16% 2% 4% 548 Online 11%
Leger Postmedia Dec 2–5, 2021 [p 36] 32% 43% — — — — 10% — 2.8% 1,249 Online 11%
Nanos Yellowstone to Yukon Oct 13–Nov 1, 2021 [p 37] 38.8% 47.2% 6.5% 2.1% — 0.1% 3.3% 1.8% 3.5% 801 Online 8.4%
Mainstreet Research Western Standard Oct 12–13, 2021 [p 38] 29% 45% 6% 2% — 1% 13% — 3.2% 935 IVR 16%
Commonground N/A Sep 21–Oct 6, 2021 [p 39] 26.9% 49.5% 6.7% 5.2% — — 5.3% 6.4% N/A 1,204 Online 22.6%
Innovative Research N/A Sep 24–Oct 5, 2021 [p 40] 29% 45% 5% 9% — 2% 8% 1% N/A 672 Online 16%
Angus Reid N/A Sep 29–Oct 3, 2021 [p 41] 31% 43% 7% 2% — 1% 15% 2% 2.0% 552 Online 12%
Innovative Research N/A Sep 10–12, 2021 [p 42] 31% 44% 5% 8% — 4% 7% 1% N/A 209 Online 13%
Leger Postmedia July 22–26, 2021 [p 43] 34% 45% 6% 4% — — 8% 2% 3% 1,377 Online 11%
Angus Reid N/A June 2–7, 2021 [p 44] 30% 41% 7% 1% — — 20% 2% 4% 502 Online 11%
Mainstreet Research Western Standard May 19–20, 2021 [p 45] 31% 38% 6% 3% — 3% 17% — 3% 1,010 IVR 7%
Janet Brown Opinion Research CBC Mar 15–April 10, 2021 [p 46] 37% 45% 6% — — — 6% 7% 2.1% 1,200 Online 8%
Leger Calgary Herald Mar 5–8, 2021 [p 47] 30% 51% 5% 7% — — — 6% 3.1% 1,001 Online 21%
Commonground N/A Mar 1–8, 2021 [p 48] 32% 42% 5% 6% — — 4% 9% N/A 802 Online 9%
Angus Reid N/A Feb 26–March 3, 2021 [p 49][p 50] 38% 41% 10% 2% — 1% — 11% 4% 603 Online 3%
Mainstreet Research Western Standard Jan 6–7, 2021 [p 51] 31% 48% 4% 3% — 2% 10% 2% 3.1% 1,003 Smart IVR 17%
Research Co. N/A Dec 2–4, 2020 [p 52] 40% 43% 9% 2% — 2% 2% — 4% 600 Online 3%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 53][p 54] 43% 39% 10% 2% — 1% — 5% — 553 Online 4%
Environics Research CUPE Nov 10–23, 2020 [p 55] 40% 47% 8% — — — — 5% — 1,205 — 7%
Angus Reid N/A Aug 26–Sep 1, 2020 [p 56][p 57] 38% 38% 9% 2% 7% 1% — 5% 4% 512 Online Tie
Commonground N/A Aug 17–30, 2020 [p 58] 37% 30% — 11% — — — 21% N/A 824 Online 7%
Innovative Research Group N/A Jul 14–20, 2020 [p 59] 42% 32% 9% 12% — 3% — 3% — 300 Online 10%
Innovative Research Group N/A Jun 19–June 23, 2020 [p 60] 44% 38% 5% 6% — 3% — 3% — 267 Online 6%
Innovative Research Group N/A May 29–June 1, 2020 [p 61] 42% 28% 11% 14% — 3% — 2% — 276 Online 14%
Janet Brown Opinion Research CBC May 25–June 1, 2020 [p 62] 46% 36% 10% 6% — — — 3% 3.3% 900 Online 10%
Angus Reid N/A May 19–24, 2020 [p 63][p 64] 42% 36% 5% 2% 8% 2% — 4% 1.4% 580 Online 6%
Northwest Research Poll Western Standard May 14–19, 2020 [p 65] 40% 34% 8% 7% — 1% 10% — 3% 1,094 IVR 6%
Innovative Research Group N/A May 1–5, 2020 [p 66] 45% 30% 6% 8% — 7% — 2% — 314 Online 15%
Angus Reid N/A Feb 24–28, 2020 [p 67][p 68] 40% 36% 8% 2% 9% 1% — 4% — 555 Online 4%
Mainstreet Research 338Canada Feb 22, 2020 [p 69] 47% 38% 6% 4% — — — 5% 4% 751 IVR 9%
Stratcom N/A Nov 21, 2019 [p 70] 42% 46% — — — — — 12% 2.2% 1,798 IVR 4%
Lethbridge College N/A Oct 5-10, 2019 [p 71] 58.1% 23.2% 5.8% 7.8% — — — 5.2% 3.17% 953 Telephone 34.9%
2019 general election April 16, 2019 54.9% 32.7% 9.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% — 1.2% — — — 22.2%
Pollster Client Dates
conducted 		Source Others Margin of error Sample
size 		Polling
method 		Lead
UCP NDP Alberta Liberal IPA Green WIP

Regional polls

City of Calgary

Pollster Client Dates
conducted 		Source UCP NDP Alberta WIP Others Margin of error Sample
size 		Polling
method 		Lead
Janet Brown Opinion Research CBC Mar 23–April 6, 2023 [p 72] 42% 47% 3% 1% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone/Online 5%

Opinion poll sources

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Footnotes

  1. ^ Dang was elected in the 2019 election as an NDP candidate but later became an Independent MLA.
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