Opinion polling for the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Kalamikid (talk | contribs) at 17:27, 3 February 2021 (→‎MRP and RPP estimates: Fixed link to Green Parties). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Various opinion polls were conducted in advance of the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom. Before the April delay, a number of polls asked respondents to imagine how they would vote in a then-hypothetical scenario in which European elections would be held.

Great Britain

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2019 European Parliament elections in the UK; trendlines are local regressions (LOESS).

National opinion polling

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Area Sample
size
UKIP Lab Con Green Lib Dem SNP Plaid Cymru Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Change UK/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"|
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 GB 3.3% 14.1% 9.1% 12.1%[a] 20.3% 3.6% 1.0% 3.4% 31.6% 1.6% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-11.3%"| 11.3%
UK 3.2% 13.6% 8.8% 11.8%[b] 19.6% 3.5% 1.0% 3.3% 30.5% 4.7% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-11.0%"| 11.0%
Survation/Daily Mail 22 May 2019 UK 2,029 3% 23% 14% 7% 12% 3% 4% 31% 4% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-8%"| 8%
BMG/The Independent 20–22 May 2019 GB 1,601 2% 18% 12% 8% 17% 3% 1% 4% 35% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-17%"| 17%
Ipsos MORI/The Evening Standard 20–22 May 2019 GB 1,527 3% 15% 9% 10% 20% 3% 0% 3% 35% 3% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-15%"| 15%
YouGov/The Times 19–21 May 2019 GB 3,864 3% 13% 7% 12% 19% 3% 1% 4% 37% 2% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-18%"| 18%
Number Cruncher Politics 18–21 May 2019 GB 1,005 2% 19% 15% 7% 16% 4% 1% 4% 33% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-14%"| 14%
Kantar 14–21 May 2019 GB 2,316 4% 24% 13% 8% 15% 3% 0% 5% 27% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-3%"| 3%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–21 May 2019 GB 2,033 3% 25% 12% 7% 15% 4% 3% 30% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-5%"| 5%
Opinium 17–20 May 2019 UK 2,005 2% 17% 12% 7% 15% 3% 1% 3% 38% 2% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-21%"| 21%
Survation/Daily Mail 17 May 2019 UK 1,000 3% 24% 14% 4% 12% 4% 1% 3% 30% 4%[c] style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-6%"| 6%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign 13–17 May 2019 GB 4,161 3% 22% 12% 7% 14% 3% 1% 5% 32% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-10%"| 10%
YouGov/Best for Britain/Hope Not Hate 8–17 May 2019 GB 9,260 3% 15% 9% 11% 17% 3% 1% 4% 34% 3% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-17%"| 17%
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Sunday Express 15–16 May 2019 GB 2,041 2% 23% 9% 9% 16% 4% 1% 4% 31% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-8%"| 8%
Opinium/The Observer 14–16 May 2019 UK 2,009 2% 20% 12% 6% 15% 4% 1% 3% 34% 3% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-14%"| 14%
YouGov/The Times 12–16 May 2019 GB 7,192 3% 15% 9% 10% 16% 3% 1% 5% 35% 3% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-19%"| 19%
Hanbury Strategy/Politico 9–13 May 2019 GB 2,000 3% 25% 13% 6% 14% 4% 6% 30% 0% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-5%"| 5%
ComRes/The Daily Telegraph 10–12 May 2019 GB 2,028 3% 25% 15% 7% 13% 3% 0% 6% 27% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-2%"| 2%
Opinium/The Observer 8–10 May 2019 UK 2,004 4% 21% 11% 8% 12% 4% 1% 3% 34% 2% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-13%"| 13%
BMG/The Independent 7–10 May 2019 GB 1,541 3% 22% 12% 10% 19% 2% 0% 4% 26% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-4%"| 4%
ComRes/Brexit Express 9 May 2019 GB 2,034 3% 25% 13% 8% 14% 3% 0% 6% 27% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-2%"| 2%
Survation/Good Morning Britain 8–9 May 2019 UK 1,303 4% 24% 12% 7%[d] 11% 4% 1% 4% 30% 3%[e] style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-6%"| 6%
YouGov/The Times 8–9 May 2019 GB 2,212 3% 16% 10% 11% 15% 3% 1% 5% 34% 3% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-18%"| 18%
Opinium/People's Vote 3–7 May 2019 UK 2,000 4% 26% 14% 6% 12% 5% 2% 2% 29% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-3%"| 3%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign 1–6 May 2019 GB 4,060 2% 26% 14% 6% 11% 3% 1% 8% 28% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-2%"| 2%
2 May 2019 Local elections in England and Northern Ireland[1][2]
YouGov/The Times 29–30 Apr 2019 GB 1,630 4% 21% 13% 9% 10% 4% 9% 30% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-9%"| 9%
YouGov/Hope Not Hate 23–26 Apr 2019 GB 5,412 5% 22% 13% 10% 7% 5% 10% 28% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-6%"| 6%
Survation 17–25 Apr 2019 UK 1,999 7% 27% 16% 4% 8% 3% 1% 4% 27% 3%[c] Tie
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 GB 2,030 5% 33% 20% 4% 7% 4% 5% 20% 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-13%"| 13%
Opinium/The Observer 21–23 Apr 2019 UK 2,004 3% 28% 14% 6% 7% 5% 1% 7% 28% 1% Tie
YouGov/The Times 16–17 Apr 2019 GB 1,755 6% 22% 17% 10% 9% 5% 8% 23% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1%"| 1%
ComRes/Brexit Express 16 Apr 2019 GB 1,061 5% 33% 18% 5% 9% 4% 0% 9% 17% 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-15%"| 15%
YouGov/People's Vote 15–16 Apr 2019 GB 1,855 7% 22% 15% 10% 9% 4% 6% 27% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-5%"| 5%
Opinium/The Observer 9–12 Apr 2019 UK 2,007 13% 29% 17% 6% 10% 6% 1% 4% 12% 2% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-12%"| 12%
YouGov/The Times 10–11 Apr 2019 GB 1,843 14% 24% 16% 8% 8% 6% 7% 15% 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-8%"| 8%
Hanbury Strategy/Open Europe 5–8 Apr 2019 GB 2,000 8% 38% 23% 4% 8% 4% 0% 4% 10% 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-15%"| 15%
Opinium/The Observer 28–29 Mar 2019 UK 2,008 18% 30% 24% 8% 10% 4% 1% 5% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-6%"| 6%
22 Mar 2019 Nigel Farage becomes leader of the Brexit Party[3]
Opinium/The Observer 12–15 Mar 2019 UK 2,008 17% 29% 28% 6% 11% 4% 1% 5% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1%"| 1%
Number Cruncher Politics/Politico 10–17 Jan 2019 UK 1,003 10% 37% 36% 5% 8% 3% 1% 1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1%"| 1%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 GB 27.5% 25.4% 23.9% 7.9%[a] 6.9% 2.5% 0.7% 5.3% style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.1%
UK 26.6% 24.4% 23.0% 7.6%[b] 6.6% 2.4% 0.7% 8.6% style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.2%

MRP and RPP estimates

ComRes, like YouGov in the 2017 United Kingdom general election, employed multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) as well as regularised prediction and poststratification (RPP) to model voting behavior in every region in Great Britain using large numbers of survey interviews on voting intentions (an approach described as identifying "patterns in responses across [regions] that have similar characteristics, and then work[ing] out the implications of those patterns for each").[4]

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Area Sample
size
UKIP Lab Con Green Lib Dem SNP Plaid Cymru Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Change UK/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"|
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 GB 3.3% 14.1% 9.1% 12.1%[a] 20.3% 3.6% 1.0% 3.4% 31.6% 1.6% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-11.3%"| 11.3%
UK 3.2% 13.6% 8.8% 11.8%[b] 19.6% 3.5% 1.0% 3.3% 30.5% 4.7% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-11.0%"| 11.0%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign (RPP) 13–17 May 2019 GB 3,572 2% 24% 11% 6% 15% 4% 4% 32% 0% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-8%"| 8%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign (MRP) 1–6 May 2019 GB 3,583 3% 27% 14% 6% 11% 4% 8% 26% 0% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1%"| 1%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 GB 27.5% 25.4% 23.9% 7.9%[a] 6.9% 2.5% 0.7% 5.3% style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.1%
UK 26.6% 24.4% 23.0% 7.6%[b] 6.6% 2.4% 0.7% 8.6% style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.2%

London only

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con UKIP Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Change UK/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"|
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 23.9% 7.9% 2.1% 12.4% 27.2% 5.2% 17.9% 3.3% style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-3.2%"| 3.2%
YouGov/Queen Mary University of London 7–10 May 2019 1,015 24% 10% 1% 14% 17% 7% 20% 5% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 36.7% 22.5% 16.9% 8.9% 6.7% 8.3% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 14.1%

Scotland only

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
SNP Lab Con UKIP Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Labour Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Conservatives/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Green Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish Liberal Democrats/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Change UK/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"|
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 37.8% 9.3% 11.6% 1.8% 8.2% 13.9% 1.9% 14.8% 0.5% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;"| 23.0%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 38% 16% 11% 2% 4% 10% 2% 16% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;"| 22%
YouGov/The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 40% 14% 10% 3% 7% 6% 6% 13% 0% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;"| 26%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 39% 20% 16% 2% 3% 6% 4% 10% <1% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;"| 19%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 29.0% 25.9% 17.2% 10.5% 8.1% 7.1% 2.3% style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;"| 3.1%

Wales only

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Lab UKIP Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Wales Green Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Change UK/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"|
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 15.3% 3.3% 6.5% 19.6% 6.3% 13.6% 2.9% 32.5% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-12.9%"| 12.9%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 16–20 May 2019 1,009 15% 2% 7% 19% 8% 10% 2% 36% 1% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-17%"| 17%
YouGov/Plaid Cymru 10–15 May 2019 1,113 18% 3% 7% 16% 8% 10% 4% 33% 0% style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-15%"| 15%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 30% 11% 16% 15% 5% 6% 8% 10% 1% style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 14%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 28.1% 27.6% 17.4% 15.3% 4.5% 3.9% 3.1% style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 0.6%

Northern Ireland

The following polls reflect first preferences only.

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Sinn Féin DUP UUP SDLP TUV Alliance UKIP Green Other Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Democratic Unionist Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Ulster Unionist Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Social Democratic and Labour Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Traditional Unionist Voice/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Alliance Party of Northern Ireland/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Green Party in Northern Ireland/meta/color;"|
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 22.2% 21.8% 9.3% 13.7% 10.8% 18.5% 0.9% 2.2% 0.6% style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 0.3%
LucidTalk/The Times/U105[5] 18–19 May 2019 1,482 26.3% 21.8% 11.8% 13.3% 9.3% 11.6% 1.7% 3.3% 0.9%[f] style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4.5%
LucidTalk/The Times/U105[5] 4–7 May 2019 1,405 27.2% 20.2% 11.8% 13.1% 8.5% 11.3% 1.7% 4.6% 1.6%[g] style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7.0%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 25.5% 20.9% 13.3% 13.0% 12.1% 7.1% 3.9% 1.7% 2.3% style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4.6%

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Including the Scottish Green Party
  2. ^ a b c d Including the Scottish Green Party and the Green Party in Northern Ireland
  3. ^ a b Including the DUP with 2% and English Democrats with 1%
  4. ^ Including the Scottish Green Party with 1%
  5. ^ Including the DUP with 2%
  6. ^ Includes independent Jane Morrice with 0.7%
  7. ^ Includes independent Jane Morrice with 1.4%

References

  1. ^ "England local elections 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  2. ^ "Northern Ireland local elections 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  3. ^ "Nigel Farage back in frontline politics as Brexit Party leader". BBC News. 22 March 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
  4. ^ "YouGov UK General Election MRP Estimates - February 2019" (PDF). YouGov. 11 February 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
  5. ^ a b "NI TRACKER POLL – NI EUROPEAN ELECTION (23RD May 2019) POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS – GENERAL REPORT" (PDF). LucidTalk. 2019-05-30. Retrieved 2019-06-02.