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2023 Kaduna State gubernatorial election

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2023 Kaduna State gubernatorial election
← 2019 18 March 2023 2027 →
Registered4,335,208
 
Nominee Uba Sani Isa Ashiru Jonathan Asake
Party APC PDP LP
Running mate Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe John Ayuba Bashir Idris Aliyu
Governor before election

Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai
APC

Elected Governor

Uba Sani
APC

The 2023 Kaduna State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Kaduna State, concurrent with elections to the Kaduna State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former House of Representatives member Isa Ashiru on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Uba Sani—Senator for Kaduna Central—on 26 May.[4][5] In August, Jonathan Asake—a former House of Representatives member and former Southern Kaduna Peoples Union President—won the nomination of the Labour Party in a rerun primary.[6]

Electoral system

The Governor of Kaduna State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Kaduna State is a large, diverse northwestern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, inter-ethnic violence, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state.[7][8][9][10][11]

Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a slight solidification of the Kaduna APC's control as el-Rufai won re-election with over 55% of the vote and the party retained its House of Assembly majority. Federally, the APC regained two of the three Senate seats it lost due to defections and won eleven of the sixteen House of Representatives seats. For the presidency, Kaduna was won by APC nominee Muhammadu Buhari with about 60% but swung slightly towards the PDP. The 2019 elections also showed the political divide between the diverse, Christian-majority Southern region and the mainly Hausa and Fulani, Muslim-majority Northern and Central regions as the former region moved towards the PDP while the latter two regions stuck with the APC.

Ahead of el-Rufai's second term, his administration stated focuses included government reform, forging a positive business environment, unity, education, and urban development.[12] In terms of his performance, el-Rufai was praised for proper budgeting, expanding free education, a proactive response to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, urban infrastructure development, and raising pensions.[13][14][15][16] However, he faced criticism for alleged anti-Christian sentiment in the state government, rising insecurity and el-Rufai's irresponsible statements on it, and labour disputes along with authoritarian-esque actions including the arrest of journalists and the infiltration of Amnesty International Nigeria.[17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][26] According to some candidates and community groups, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kaduna South Senatorial District to have the next governor as the only governor from the south did not finish his term. However, no major party zoned their nomination. Another informal convention mandated different religion tickets with one running mate being Christian while the other was Muslim; however, el-Rufai discarded this tradition in 2019 and neither party committed to a return to the tradition.

All Progressives Congress

By early 2022, reports emerged that el-Rufai was looking to endorse a member of his core inner circle to succeed him with names like former commissioner Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, Senator Uba Sani, and Deputy Governor Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe being floated as the major potential candidates.[27] In early 2022, reports came out that the el-Rufai's endorsement process had culminated in Sani emerging as his pick while Abdullahi was to run to replace Sani in the Senate and Balarabe would become Sani's running mate.[28][29][30][31][32][33] While both Abdullahi and Balarabe accepted the process and dropped their gubernatorial ambitions, other candidates like former House of Representatives member Sani Sha'aban objected to the endorsement process and labeled it as undemocratic and illegitimate.[34][35][36][37]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[38] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[39] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[40][41][42][43]

In the days before the primary, disputes emerged over the delegate list as Sani's opponents—Bashir Abubakar and Sha'aban—accused el-Rufai of imposing delegates without proper congresses and called for national party intervention.[44][45] However, the congress appeals committee upheld the delegate elections and labeled the exercise as "successful."[46] Pre-primary analysis stated that although Sha'aban expected support from politicians close to his in-law President Muhammadu Buhari, it was "safe to project" Sani would win.[47] On primary day, the three candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Sani's wide victory after results showed him over 96% of the delegates' votes.[5] After the votes were collated, Sani thanked delegates, el-Rufai, and his opponents in his acceptance speech but both Abubakar and Sha'aban wholeheartedly rejected the results.[5][48][49] The weeks after the primary were dominated by the search for Sani's running mate; the first part of el Rufai's plan went well with Abdullahi winning the senatorial primary but opposition emerged to Balarabe continuing as the deputy gubernatorial nominee. Previous informal convention was against same religion tickets and the pick of Balarabe would be the second consecutive APC ticket in violation of the convention as both Sani and Balarabe are Muslim; Christian groups lobbied against another Muslim-Muslim ticket and noted that such a ticket would be untimely amid a rise in religious tension and violence.[50] Despite the outcry, Sani picked Balarabe as his running mate on 4 July.[51][52] In response, observers expressed worry over religious equality and tensions if the APC ticket won while some groups called for asked voters to reject Sani.[53][54] Meanwhile, Sha'aban filed a lawsuit against Sani's nomination based on allegedly improper primary conduct; however, the case was dismissed by a Federal High Court in November 2022 and the Supreme Court in February 2023.[55][56]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Uba Sani (96.07%)
  Bashir Abubakar (3.09%)
  Sani Sha'aban (0.84%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Uba Sani 1,149 96.07%
APC Bashir Abubakar 37 3.09%
APC Sani Sha'aban 10 0.84%
Total votes 1,196 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 39 N/A
Turnout 1,235 99.20%

People's Democratic Party

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[70] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[71][72]

Pre-primary analysis labeled Isa Ashiru—a former MHR and the party's 2019 nominee—as the frontrunner but noted his opponents had a chance for an upset.[47] On the primary date, one major candidate (former Senator Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed) withdrew while the other six candidates continued to an indirect primary that ended in Isa Ashiru emerging as the SDP nominee after results showed Ashiru winning over 56% of the delegates' votes.[4] However, controversy rose after the primary when it was alleged that Ashiru had colluded with Kaduna PDP Chairman Felix Hyat to manipulate the delegate list in Ashiru's favour in exchange for Hyat becoming Ashiru's running mate.[73] Despite this alleged plan, Ashiru announced former commissioner John Ayuba as his running mate in June; noting the regional balance as Ayuba is from Kaduna South while Ashiru is from Kaduna North.[74] In July, Baba-Ahmed defected to the LP to become its vice-presidential nominee.[75]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Isa Ashiru (56.71%)
  Muhammad Sani Sidi (35.62%)
  Other candidates (7.67%)
PDP primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Isa Ashiru 414 56.71%
PDP Muhammad Sani Sidi 260 35.62%
PDP Mukhtar Ramalan Yero 28 3.84%
PDP Mohammed Sani Abbas 15 2.05%
PDP Haruna Yunusa Saeed 11 1.51%
PDP Shehu Sani 2 0.27%
Total votes 730 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 30 N/A
Turnout 760 Unknown

Minor parties

Campaign

As the general election campaign began in June 2022, pundits focused on the major candidates' search for running mates. Due to geopolitical dynamics and the state's religious diversity, informal convention states that a nominee from Kaduna Central or North districts should pick a running mate from Southern Kaduna and vice versa along with balancing the ticket religiously by picking a ticket with one Muslim and one Christian. As both the PDP and the APC nominated Muslims from the Central and North districts, they were expected to select a southern Christian running mate. While Ashiru followed the convention by picking John Ayuba—a Christian from Zangon Kataf LGA, the APC again violated the religious part of the convention by renominating incumbent Deputy Governor Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe—a Muslim from Sanga LGA. As the national APC also violated the anti-same religion ticket convention by nominating the Bola Tinubu-Kashim Shettima slate and el-Rufai faced constant criticism of his handling of inter-religious tensions, analysts noted the likely significance of religious identity in the Kaduna election. However, Ayuba's selection was not without controversy either as youth groups lamented his age of 68.[87]

As the general election campaign began in July and August, reporting also pointed out other potential factors like the el-Rufai administration's urban renewal projects, APC members aggrieved by the contentious party primary, Sani's senate performance, expected PDP dominance in Southern Kaduna, and PDP internal disputes along with the more prominent minor party nominees—Jonathan Asake (LP), Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi (NNPP), and Hayatuddeen Lawal Makarfi (PRP).[88][89] Further analysis by November surmised that the two strongest minor party nominees—Asake and Othman Hunkuyi—could split the formerly PDP base, potentially allowing Sani to win with a plurality.[90]

With the election nearing, BBC Hausa organized a debate on 18 January 2023 and invited Sani, Asake, Othman Hunkuyi, and Ashiru to participate.[a] While Asake did not attend, the other three had a heated debate on topics ranging from agriculture to security.[91] In February, focus mainly switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Kaduna State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 40.8% of the vote to defeat Bola Tinubu (APC) at 29.4%, Peter Obi (LP) at 21.7%, and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 6.8%. Considered a slight surprise, the result led to increased focus on the gubernatorial race due to the significant margin of victory for Abubakar and PDP success in the state's National Assembly elections. Gubernatorial campaign analysis from after the presidential election noted shock from APC figures that pushed the party to call on Islamic clerics to market voting for its Muslim-Muslim ticket as a "religious obligation" while other pundits emphasized that Asake's path to victory came from sweeping Christian voters if the Muslim voters split between Sani and Ashiru. At the same time, other observers like Jaafar Jaafar doubted Asake's chances of victory and reiterated that Asake's strength among formerly PDP supporting southern communities could allow Sani to win by splitting the old PDP base.[92][93][94][95]

Election debates

2023 Kaduna State gubernatorial election debates
Date Organisers     P  Present[b]    S  Surrogate[c]  
 NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee   W  Invitation withdrawn 
ADP APC LP NNPP PDP Other parties Ref.
18 January BBC Hausa W[a]
Sha'aban 		P
Sani 		A
Asake 		P
Othman Hunkuyi 		P
Ashiru 		NI
Multiple 		[91]

Projections

Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[d][97] Lean Ashiru 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[e][98] 		Ashiru 2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[99] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[100]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[f] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[g] – Final day of the official campaign period

Pre-election

Due to widespread insecurity in the state, civil society groups raised concern about the safe conduct of the election in heavily-insecure areas.[103]

General election

Results

2023 Kaduna State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
AA Timothy Sherman Adamu
ADP Yusuf Jibril
APP Yahaya Musa Kallah
ADC Caleb Zagi
APM Yahaya Alhassan
APC Uba Sani
APGA Andrew Abui Duya
LP Jonathan Asake
New Nigeria Peoples Party Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi
NRM Salihu Abubakar Gambo
PDP Isa Ashiru
PRP Hayatuddeen Lawal
SDP Adamu Abubakar Idris
YPP Yaya Sanin Yaya
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Uba Sani
APC 		Jonathan Asake
LP 		Isa Ashiru
PDP 		Others Total
Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Kaduna Central Senatorial District[h] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kaduna North Senatorial District[i] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kaduna South Senatorial District[j] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Uba Sani
APC 		Jonathan Asake
LP 		Isa Ashiru
PDP 		Others Total
Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Birnin Gwari/Giwa Federal Constituency[k] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency[l] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Igabi Federal Constituency[m] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ikara/Kubau Federal Constituency[n] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Jema'a/Sanga Federal Constituency[o] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kachia/Kagarko Federal Constituency[p] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kaduna North Federal Constituency[q] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kaduna South Federal Constituency[r] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kaura Federal Constituency[s] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kauru Federal Constituency[t] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Lere Federal Constituency[u] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Makarfi/Kudan Federal Constituency[v] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Sabon Gari Federal Constituency[w] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Soba Federal Constituency[x] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Zangon Kataf/Jaba Federal Constituency[y] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Zaria Federal Constituency[z] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Uba Sani
APC 		Jonathan Asake
LP 		Isa Ashiru
PDP 		Others Total
Valid Votes 		Turnout
Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Birnin Gwari TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Chikun TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Giwa TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Igabi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Jaba TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Jema'a TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kachia TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kaduna North TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kaduna South TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kagarko TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kajuru TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kaura TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kauru TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kubau TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kudan TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Lere TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Makarfi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Sabon Gari TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Sanga TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Soba TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Zangon Kataf TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Zaria TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Although Sani Sha'aban was initially invited to the debate, his invitation was withdrawn the day before the debate as he was not yet officially the ADP nominee.[96]
  2. ^ Denotes a party gubernatorial nominee attending the event.
  3. ^ Denotes a party gubernatorial nominee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  4. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  5. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  6. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[101]
  7. ^ The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[102]
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Gwari, Chikun, Giwa, Igabi, Kaduna North, Kaduna South, and Kajuru.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikara, Kubau, Kudan, Lere, Makarfi, Sabon Gari, Soba, and Zaria.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jaba, Jema'a, Kachia, Kagarko, Kaura, Kauru, Sanga, and Zangon Kataf.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Gwari and Giwa.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Chikun and Kajuru.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government area of Igabi.
  14. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikara and Kubau.
  15. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jema'a and Sanga.
  16. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kachia and Kagarko.
  17. ^ Comprising the local government area of Kaduna North.
  18. ^ Comprising the local government area of Kaduna South.
  19. ^ Comprising the local government area of Kaura.
  20. ^ Comprising the local government area of Kauru.
  21. ^ Comprising the local government area of Lere.
  22. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kudan and Makarfi.
  23. ^ Comprising the local government area of Sabon Gari.
  24. ^ Comprising the local government area of Soba.
  25. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jaba and Zangon Kataf.
  26. ^ Comprising the local government area of Zaria.

References

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  13. ^ "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, OCTOBER, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
  14. ^ "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, JANUARY, 2020: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 8 April 2022. Nasir el-Rufai, returns to the top 5 ranking for the month of January, after enjoying good mention in year 2019. We acknowledge his commitment to improving the education sector in the Northwest state, especially the recent declaration of free education for public primary and secondary schools in the state.
  15. ^ "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, MARCH, 2020: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 8 April 2022. Governor Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna State also took proactive steps after the first case of the COVID-19 disease surfaced in the country.
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  19. ^ "Top 5, Bottom 5: RipplesNigeria ranking of Nigerian governors for August, 2020". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 8 April 2022. As the Chief Security Officer of the state, Governor El-Rufai has disappointingly continued to speak in ways and manners unexpected of him. We note with concern, statements credited to the governor concerning the alleged culpability of leaders of Southern Kaduna to the effect that they are only interested in collecting brown envelopes and when they don't get it, orchestrate the killing of their people. We reckon that the statement, if truly was made by El-Rufai, was most irresponsible and insensitive of a leader who is desirous of a lasting solution to the carnage, and the killing field the Southern part of the state is fast becoming.
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