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2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
← 2013 (special) November 4, 2014 2020 →
 
Nominee Ed Markey Brian Herr
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,289,944 791,950
Percentage 61.87% 37.98%
County results
Markey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Ed Markey
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ed Markey
Democratic

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The 2014 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Massachusetts, other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey ran for re-election to a first full term in office.[1] Primary elections were held on September 9, 2014. Markey was unopposed for the Democratic nomination; Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr was also unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Background

Incumbent Democratic Senator John Kerry, serving since 1985, had planned to run for re-election to a sixth term, but on December 15, 2012, it was announced that the long-time Massachusetts senator and 2004 presidential nominee would be nominated as United States Secretary of State under President Barack Obama. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed Mo Cowan as a temporary replacement for Kerry, after he was confirmed as Secretary of State and therefore resigned his senate seat. There was a special election on June 25, 2013, to finish the term, which was won by Ed Markey, the 37-year Democratic incumbent from Massachusetts's 5th congressional district.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Did not qualify

Declined

Independent

Candidates

Withdrew

  • Bruce Skarin, government research scientist[9][17]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Solid D November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Safe D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[20] Safe D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[21] Safe D November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Markey (D) 		Brian
Herr (R) 		Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov Archived 2014-09-08 at the Wayback Machine July 5–24, 2014 1,846 ± 4.9% 61% 34% 2% 3%
Boston Globe September 14–16, 2014 407 ± 4.85% 53% 27% — 21%
Rasmussen Reports September 16–17, 2014 750 ± 4% 49% 31% 5% 15%
WBUR/MassINC September 16–21, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 58% 30% 1% 11%
WNEU September 20–28, 2014 416 LV ± 5% 56% 34% — 10%
536 RV ± 4% 52% 34% — 14%
Suffolk University September 25–28, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 54% 30% — 16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 2,389 ± 2% 54% 31% 1% 14%
WBUR/MassINC October 1–4, 2014 504 ± 4.4% 56% 30% 1% 13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,218 ± 3% 54% 32% 0% 14%
WBUR/MassINC October 22–25, 2014 494 ± 4.4% 57% 32% 1% 9%
Umass Amherst October 20–27, 2014 591 LV ± 4.4% 53% 37% — 9%
800 RV ± 3.8% 52% 32% — 15%
Suffolk University October 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 49% 34% — 17%
WNEU October 21–30, 2014 430 LV ± 5% 54% 34% — 12%
522 RV ± 4% 53% 31% — 17%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 2, 2014 887 ± 3.3% 52% 38% — 10%
Hypothetical polling
With Markey
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Markey (D) 		Frank
Addivinola (R) 		Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov Archived 2014-09-08 at the Wayback Machine July 5–24, 2014 1,901 ± 4.9% 59% 34% 2% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 3,361 ± 2% 53% 28% 2% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Markey (D) 		Scott
Brown (R) 		Other Undecided
MassInc July 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 43% 38% 2% 17%
Public Policy Polling September 20–23, 2013 616 ± 4% 46% 45% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Markey (D) 		Gabriel
Gomez (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 20–23, 2013 616 ± 4% 53% 35% — 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Markey (D) 		Richard
Tisei (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 20–23, 2013 616 ± 4% 54% 27% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Markey (D) 		Bill
Weld (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 20–23, 2013 616 ± 4% 47% 41% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ed
Markey (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
WBUR/MassINC March 14–16, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 50% 29% — 21%
With Kerry
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Kerry (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2012 1,051 ± 3.3% 54% 33% — 13%
Public Policy Polling October 9–11, 2012 1,051 ± 3.0% 53% 32% — 15%
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2012 1,089 ± 3.0% 54% 30% — 15%

Results

Results by Municipality
Markey:
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%

Herr:
  50–60%
United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2014[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 1,289,944 61.87% +7.07%
Republican Brian Herr 791,950 37.98% −6.62%
Write-in 3,078 0.15% -0.06%
Total votes 2,084,972 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Markey won all 9 congressional districts.[23]

District Herr Markey Representative
1st 37.63% 62.37% Richard Neal
2nd 41.99% 58.01% Jim McGovern
3rd 42.04% 57.96% Niki Tsongas
4th 41.38% 58.62% Joe Kennedy III
5th 30.65% 69.35% Katherine Clark
6th 42.06% 57.94% John F. Tierney
7th 15.62% 84.38% Michael Capuano
8th 39.06% 60.96% Stephen Lynch
9th 44.54% 55.46% Bill Keating

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Hillary Chabot (June 26, 2013). "For Ed Markey, race is just beginning". Boston Herald. Retrieved September 26, 2013.
  2. ^ Dave Wedge (February 21, 2009). "John Kerry sets sights on 2014". Boston Herald. Archived from the original on August 25, 2012. Retrieved February 1, 2011.
  3. ^ "Sen. John Kerry plans re-election run for 2014, calls secretary of state ambitions 'rumors'". Washington Post. August 4, 2011. Retrieved August 4, 2011.[dead link]
  4. ^ Schoenberg, Shira (May 10, 2013). "After leaving U.S. Senate, Mo Cowan will not run for office". The Republican. Retrieved May 15, 2013.
  5. ^ "GOP's Herr to challenge Markey in Senate race". abc 6. January 29, 2014. Archived from the original on January 29, 2014. Retrieved January 29, 2014.
  6. ^ Miller, Joshua (January 29, 2014). "Hopkinton Republican launches bid for US Senate". Boston Globe. Retrieved January 29, 2014.
  7. ^ Schoenberg, Shira (February 18, 2014). "Republican Frank Addivinola launches campaign for U.S. Senate seat held by Ed Markey". masslive.com. Retrieved February 18, 2014.
  8. ^ a b "2014 Republican Primary Candidates". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
  9. ^ a b Sutner, Shaun (February 14, 2014). "Senate candidate Skarin wants to win $15 by $15". Worcester Telegram. Retrieved February 14, 2014.
  10. ^ Arthur Christopher Schaper (February 21, 2014). "Arthur Schaper: Mark Inman for US Senate (Really?!)". GoLocalWorcester.com. Retrieved April 29, 2014.
  11. ^ Cerullo, Mac (January 12, 2013). "Ablow vows truth in possible Senate run". Newburyport News. Retrieved May 28, 2013.
  12. ^ Phillips, Frank; O'Sullivan, Jim (September 3, 2013). "Republican Charles Baker to announce Mass. gubernatorial bid Wednesday". Boston Globe. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
  13. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (December 19, 2013). "Scott Brown: New Hampshire Move is 'Strictly Personal'". Roll Call. Retrieved December 21, 2013.
  14. ^ Miller, Joshua (January 9, 2014). "Gomez will not run for office in 2014". Boston Globe. Retrieved January 9, 2014.
  15. ^ a b LeBlanc, Steve (November 11, 2012). "Eyes Turn To Future Of Mass. Governor and U.S. Senate Races". CBS Boston. Retrieved November 11, 2012.
  16. ^ Schoenberg, Shira (September 16, 2013). "State Rep. Dan Winslow resigns from House, rejoins private sector". The Republican. Retrieved September 16, 2013.
  17. ^ Rizzuto, Robert (July 30, 2014). "Independent US Senate hopeful Bruce Skarin ends campaign to challenge Sen. Ed Markey". MassLive. Retrieved August 20, 2014.
  18. ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  19. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  20. ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  21. ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  22. ^ "PD43+ >> 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". Massachusetts Elections Division. Retrieved July 23, 2018.
  23. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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