Psephology

Psephology (/sɪˈfɒlədʒi/; from Greek ψῆφος, psephos, 'pebble') is the study of elections and voting. Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain election results. The term is more common in Britain and in those English-speaking communities that rely heavily on the British standard of the language.

Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) in the United Kingdom after R. B. McCallum, a friend of Hardie's, requested a word to describe the study of elections. Its first documented usage in writing appeared in 1952.

Etymology

The term draws from the Greek word for pebble as the ancient Greeks used pebbles to vote. (Similarly, the word ballot is derived from the medieval French word "ballotte," meaning a small ball.)

Applications

Psephology is a division of political science that deals with the examination as well as the statistical analysis of elections and polls. People who practise psephology are called psephologists.

A few of the major tools that are used by a psephologist are historical precinct voting data, campaign finance information, and other related data. Public opinion polls also play an important role in psephology. Psephology also has various applications specifically in analysing the results of election returns for current indicators, as opposed to predictive purposes. For instance, the Gallagher Index measures the amount of proportional representation in an election.

Degrees in psephology are not offered (instead, a psephologist might have a degree in political science and/or statistics). Knowledge of demographics, statistical analysis and politics (especially electoral systems and voting behaviour) are prerequisites for becoming a psephologist.

Notable psephologists

Main article: List of psephologists

Notable psephologists include:

• Allan Lichtman, professor and creator of The Keys to the White House
• Andrew S. Tanenbaum and Christopher Bates, who together write the daily electoral-vote.com website, which tracks polling for US presidential and congressional elections
• Antony Green, election analyst for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation since 1991
• Charlie Cook, publisher of The Cook Political Report
• Curtis Gans, author of Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788–2009
• David Andrews, who since 1973 has led the Canadian network CTV's analysis and "calling" of dozens of federal and elections and referendums
• David Butler and Robert McKenzie, who co-developed the swingometer
• Éric Grenier at thewrit.ca
• Frank Luntz received the first ever doctorate in campaign technology from Trinity College, Oxford and won the Washington Post Crystal Ball award for most accurate polling
• John Curtice, who has a strong track record of forecasting UK elections
• Malcolm Mackerras (who devised the Mackerras pendulum)
• Michael Barone, who has co-authored The Almanac of American Politics biennially since 1972
• Michael Gallagher who devised the Gallagher index
• Nate Silver, creator of the website FiveThirtyEight tracking U.S. voting trends
• Pradeep Gupta, chairman of Axis My India
• Thomas Ferguson, for his Investment theory of party competition
• V.C. Sekhar, an Indian academic
• William Bowe of the Australian Poll Bludger
• Yogendra Yadav, Indian politician and psephologist

See also

• British Polling Council
• Electoral Calculus
• Electoral geography
• Opinion poll
• Political analyst
• Political data scientists
• Political forecasting
• Swing (politics)

External links

• ACE Project – Information resource for electoral design and administration. Includes comparative data on elections and electoral systems
• International IDEA – International Organisation providing (amongst other things) statistical analysis of elections and electoral systems
• 'Psephos' Dr. Adam Carr's Elections Archive