Jump to content

Extreme event attribution

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Prototyperspective (talk | contribs) at 10:14, 6 August 2022 (updated with 1 item from 2020 in science and 1 item from 2022 in science (wildfires example, meta-review), expanded (further examples&database), ce). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Not to be confused with attribution of recent climate change.

Extreme event attribution, also known as attribution science, is a relatively new field of study in meteorology and climate science that tries to measure how ongoing climate change directly affects recent extreme weather events.[1][2][3][4]

Attribution science was first mentioned in a 2011 "State of the Climate" published by the American Meteorological Society which stated that climate change is linked to six extreme weather events that were studied.[2] While extreme weather events have occurred in the past, attribution science aims to determine which such recent events can be explained by or linked to a warming atmosphere and are not simply due to natural variations.[5] German climatologist Friederike Otto further explained that attribution science aims to answer the question, "did climate change play a role" in specific extreme events "within the news time frame—so within two weeks of the event".[6]

Attribution studies generally proceed in four steps: (1) measuring the magnitude and frequency of a given event based on observed data, (2) running computer models to compare with and verify observation data, (3) running the same models on a baseline "Earth" with no climate change, and (4) using statistics to analyze the differences between the second and third steps, thereby measuring the direct effect of climate change on the studied event.[5][6]

Heatwaves are the easiest weather events to attribute.[5] Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of extreme weather differently, for example the 2010 Russia heat wave was made far more likely but not more intense.[5]

Attribution science may affect climate change litigation, perhaps by increasing lawsuits against companies for causing and governments for not addressing climate change.[7][8]

A review summarized confidence, probabilities and costs-severities – such as economic costs, financial costs and number of early losses of life – of links to climate change and identified potential ways for the improvement of the field such as "improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts.".[9][10]

Examples

  • Scientists of the international World Weather Attribution project publicized a study that found that human-caused climate change had an influence on the 2019-20 Australian wildfires by causing high-risk conditions that made widespread burning at least 30 percent more likely. They comment on the results, stating that climate change probably had more effects on the fires which couldn't be attributed using their climate simulations and that not all drivers of the fires showed imprints of anthropogenic climate change.[11][12]
  • The World Weather Attribution initiative has attributed the 2021 Western North America heat wave to climate change.[13]


  • Further analyses can be found on the WWA's website.[14]
  • The Climate Attribution Database contains scientific resources organized by theme.[15]

See also

References

  1. ^ NASEM (2016). Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-38094-2. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  2. ^ a b Hu, Jane (19 December 2019). "The Decade of Attribution Science". Slate. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  3. ^ "The Science Connecting Extreme Weather to Climate Change". Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  4. ^ Joyce, Christopher (10 December 2018). "Why Scientists Are Talking About Attribution Science And What It Is". NPR. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d Zeng, Zubin (25 August 2021). "Is climate change to blame for extreme weather events? Attribution science says yes, for some – here's how it works". The Conversation. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  6. ^ a b Sneed, Annie (2 January 2017). "Yes, Some Extreme Weather Can Be Blamed on Climate Change". Scientific American. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  7. ^ Harvey, Chelsea (2 January 2018). "Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change". Scientific American. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  8. ^ Schiermeier, Quirin (2021-09-08). "Climate science is supporting lawsuits that could help save the world". Nature. 597 (7875): 169–171. doi:10.1038/d41586-021-02424-7.
  9. ^ "Climate change is driving 2022 extreme heat and flooding". Thomson Reuters Foundation. Retrieved 19 July 2022.
  10. ^ Clarke, Ben; Otto, Friederike; Stuart-Smith, Rupert; Harrington, Luke (28 June 2022). "Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective". Environmental Research: Climate. 1 (1): 012001. doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d. ISSN 2752-5295. S2CID 250134589.
  11. ^ Fountain, Henry (4 March 2020). "Climate Change Affected Australia's Wildfires, Scientists Confirm". The New York Times. Retrieved 6 April 2020.
  12. ^ Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Krikken, Folmer; Lewis, Sophie; Leach, Nicholas J.; Lehner, Flavio; Saunders, Kate R.; Weele, Michiel van; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Wallom, David; Sparrow, Sarah; Arrighi, Julie; Singh, Roop P.; Aalst, Maarten K. van; Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Vautard, Robert; Otto, Friederike E. L. (11 March 2020). "Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions: 1–46. doi:10.5194/nhess-2020-69. ISSN 1561-8633. Retrieved 6 April 2020.
  13. ^ "Extreme weather: How is it connected to climate change?". BBC News. 2021-08-09. Retrieved 2021-09-03.
  14. ^ "WWA analyses of extreme weather events – World Weather Attribution". Retrieved 6 August 2022.
  15. ^ Cho, Renee. "Attribution science: Linking climate change to extreme weather". phys.org. Columbia University. Retrieved 6 August 2022.

External links

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Extreme_event_attribution&oldid=1102686580"