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Opinion polling for the 1997 United Kingdom general election

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The United Kingdom general election of 1997 saw the Labour Party win a landslide victory and end 18 years of Conservative government, with Tony Blair becoming prime minister. He had become leader of the party in July 1994, two months after the sudden death of his predecessor John Smith, and rebranded it "New Labour", in a move which was well-received by voters and which saw the abandonment of many traditional socialist policies of the Labour Party, including the mass nationalisation of industry which had been pioneered by Clement Attlee half a century earlier and remained on the Labour manifesto until the mid 1990s, whereas the Conservative government of Margaret Thatcher had privatised most of the state-owned industries and utilities during the 1980s, and the process had continued on a lesser scale under her successor John Major since November 1990.

The previous general election in 1992 had seen the Conservative win for the fourth successive election, although its majority was cut to 21 seats compared to the 102-seat majority it had won in 1987. However, the Black Wednesday debacle on 16 September 1992 had seriously damaged the Conservative government's reputation for economic excellence, and the Labour Party quickly became ascendant in the opinion polls. Subsequent local elections and parliamentary by-elections saw Labour and the Liberal Democrats both make gains at the expense of the Conservatives, and opinion polls pointed towards a wide Labour victory long before a general election was even on the political horizon.

Britain had been in recession in the run-up to the 1992 general election, with unemployment exceeding 2.5 million in April 1992 and reaching nearly 3 million by the end of that year. Black Wednesday was in fact followed by an economic upturn which saw an unprecedented run of economic growth that would remain unbroken for 16 years, with unemployment falling accordingly, but this did little to boost the Conservative showing in local elections, by-elections and opinion polls - even more so in the aftermath of Tony Blair's election as Labour leader. In December 1996, with an election no more than five months away, the Conservative majority finally disappeared. A series of scandals involving Conservative MP's, along with the long-running division within the party over Europe, had done the government no favours either.

On 17 March 1997, John Major called a general election for 1 May, and the opinion polls continued to point towards a large victory for Labour. Even The Sun newspaper, which had constantly supported the Tories for some 20 years and even claimed to have won the last election for the party with its fierce campaigning, declared its support for Tony Blair and "New Labour", condemning the Tories as "tired, divided and rudderless", and urged its readers to "give change a chance" and vote for a new government, although it still opposed some Labour policies.

In contrast to Labour's huge victory, the Conservatives were left with their lowest number MP's for well over a century, and without any representation in Scotland or Wales. John Major resigned as party leader, and was succeeded shortly afterwards by William Hague.

The Liberal Democrats did well, further cementing their place as the third largest party in Westminster, returning 41 MP's compared to 18 in 1992, although they actually took a smaller share of the vote compared to the previous election.

Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats
1997/04/30 CM/Guardian 33 43 18
1997/04/30 Gallup/Telegraph 33 46 16
1997/04/30 MORI/Evening Standard 29 47 19
1997/04/29 Gallup/Telegraph 31 51 13
1997/04/29 Harris/Independent 31 48 15
1997/04/29 MORI/Times 27 51 15
1997/04/29 NOP/Reuters 28 50 14
1997/04/28 Gallup/Channel 4 31 49 14
1997/04/28 Gallup/Telegraph 29 51 13
1997/04/27 Gallup/Telegraph 30 49 14
1997/04/26 Gallup/Sumday Telegraph 31 48 13
1997/04/25 Gallup/Telegraph 32 48 14
1997/04/25 ICM/Observer 32 47 16
1997/04/25 NOP/Sunday Times 29 47 16
1997/04/24 Gallup/Telegraph 32 48 12
1997/04/24 MORI/Independent on Sunday 29 53 12
1997/04/23 Gallup/Telegraph 30 50 12
1997/04/22 Gallup/Channel 4 31 50 13
1997/04/22 Gallup/Telegraph 30 51 12
1997/04/22 MORI/Times 27 48 17
1997/04/21 Gallup/Telegraph 32 48 12
1997/04/21 ICM/Guardian 37 42 14
1997/04/20 Gallup/Telegraph 32 48 13
1997/04/20 Harris/Independent 30 48 15
1997/04/19 Gallup/Sunday Telegraph 31 50 13
1997/04/18 Gallup/Telegraph 32 50 13
1997/04/18 ICM/Observer 31 48 15
1997/04/18 NOP/Sunday Times 29 47 17
1997/04/17 Gallup/Telegraph 31 50 12
1997/04/16 Gallup/Telegraph 31 50 11
1997/04/15 Gallup/Telegraph 30 51 12
1997/04/15 MORI/Times 32 49 13
1997/04/14 Gallup/Telegraph 32 49 14
1997/04/14 Harris/Independent 31 49 13
1997/04/14 ICM/Guardian 31 45 19
1997/04/14 MORI/Evening Standard 29 50 15
1997/04/13 Gallup/Telegraph 30 50 14
1997/04/12 Gallup/Sunday Telegraph 31 50 13
1997/04/12 Gallup/Telegraph 32 49 14
1997/04/11 Gallup/Telegraph 32 52 11
1997/04/11 ICM/Observer 32 48 15
1997/04/11 NOP/Sunday Times 28 49 16
1997/04/10 Gallup/Telegraph 30 52 11
1997/04/09 Gallup/Telegraph 29 53 12
1997/04/08 Gallup/Telegraph 32 51 11
1997/04/08 MORI/Times 34 49 12
1997/04/07 Gallup/Telegraph 33 53 10
1997/04/07 Harris/Independent 28 54 12
1997/04/07 ICM/Guardian 34 46 15
1997/04/06 Gallup/Telegraph 30 55 10
1997/04/04 ICM/Observer 30 50 14
1997/04/04 MORI/Independent on Sunday 30 55 9
1997/04/04 NOP/Reuters 29 52 11
1997/04/04 NOP/Sunday Times 26 53 12
1997/04/03 Gallup/Channel 4 30 54 11
1997/04/03 Harris/Central News 29 55 11
1997/04/01 MORI/Times 28 55 11
1997/03/31 Harris/Independent 28 52 14
1997/03/31 ICM/Guardian 32 46 17
1997/03/28 Gallup/Telegraph 31 52 11
1997/03/24 Harris/Independent 28 56 10
1997/03/24 MORI/Times 29 50 14
1997/03/21 Gallup/Sunday Telegraph 27 56 11
1997/03/17 Gallup/Telegraph 28.5 56.5 9.5
1997/03/17 Harris/Independent 27 58 10
1997/03/14 NOP/Reuters 29 54 11
1997/03/13 NOP/Sunday Times 26 54 13
1997/03/10 Harris/Independent 26 53 14
1997/03/09 ORB/Ladbrokes 26 56 12
1997/03/04 Gallup/Telegraph 28 54 12.5
1997/03/03 Harris/Independent 30 55 10
1997/03/02 ICM/Guardian 30 48 16
1997/02/24 MORI/Times 31 52 11
1997/02/21 NOP/Reuters 29 51 14
1997/02/13 NOP/Sunday Times 30 49 13
1997/02/04 Gallup/Telegraph 34 49 12
1997/02/02 ICM/Guardian 32 48 15
1997/01/28 MORI/Times 30 55 11
1997/01/16 NOP/Sunday Times 31 54 12
1997/01/15 Gallup/Telegraph 32.5 50.5 10.5
1997/01/05 ICM/Guardian 31 48 16
1997/01/05 ORB/Ladbrokes 30 53 12
1996/12/14 ICM/Observer 30 50 14
1996/12/09 MORI/Times 30 51 13
1996/12/02 Gallup/Telegraph 22 59 12
1996/12/01 ICM/Guardian 31 50 15
1996/11/29 MORI/Euro 30 52 13
1996/11/14 NOP/Sunday Times 26 56 13
1996/11/11 MORI/Times 33 50 12
1996/11/05 Gallup/Telegraph 28 55 11
1996/11/02 ICM/Guardian 34 47 15
1996/11/01 MORI/Mail on Sunday 30 54 12
1996/10/28 MORI/Times 28 56 12
1996/10/21 MORI 27 54 12
1996/10/17 NOP/Sunday Times 33 47 14
1996/10/14 MORI 30 53 12
1996/10/07 MORI 29 54 13
1996/10/05 ICM/Guardian 31 49 16
1996/10/04 Gallup/Telegraph 24 57 15
1996/10/03 NOP/Sunday Times 25 57 13
1996/10/01 Gallup/Telegraph 27.5 52 15
1996/09/24 Gallup/Telegraph 27 54 13.5
1996/09/23 MORI/Times 29 52 14
1996/09/19 NOP/Sunday Times 31 50 14
1996/09/09 MORI 28 56 12
1996/09/07 ICM/Guardian 32 47 16
1996/09/03 Gallup/Telegraph 25.5 58.5 11
1996/08/25 MORI/Times 30 51 13
1996/08/15 NOP/Sunday Times 28 54 14
1996/08/12 MORI 30 52 13
1996/08/05 Gallup/Telegraph 25 59 11
1996/08/03 ICM/Guardian 33 45 19
1996/07/28 MORI/Times 29 53 12
1996/07/25 NOP/Sunday Times 29 51 16
1996/07/06 ICM/Guardian 30 45 21
1996/07/01 Gallup/Telegraph 26 54.5 14.5
1996/07/01 MORI 32 52 12
1996/06/24 MORI/Times 31 52 12
1996/06/20 NOP/Sunday Times 27 55 15
1996/06/10 MORI 27 56 13
1996/06/06 ICM/Guardian 30 46 19
1996/06/03 Gallup/Telegraph 22.5 57 16
1996/06/02 ICM/Guardian 30 46 19
1996/05/26 MORI/Times 27 54 15
1996/05/16 NOP/Sunday Times 27 52 17
1996/05/13 MORI 27 56 13
1996/05/06 Gallup/Telegraph 24.5 55.5 15.5
1996/05/05 ICM/Guardian 28 45 21
1996/05/03 ICM/Sunday Express 26 52 15
1996/04/27 MORI/Sun 29 54 13
1996/04/25 NOP/Sunday Times 28 52 16
1996/04/22 MORI/Times 28 54 14
1996/04/13 ICM/Guardian 29 50 17
1996/04/01 Gallup/Telegraph 26 55.5 15.5
1996/03/25 MORI/Times 28 57 13
1996/03/14 NOP/Sunday Times 27 55 14
1996/03/11 MORI 29 55 13
1996/03/04 Gallup/Telegraph 23 57.5 16
1996/03/04 ICM/Guardian 31 45 20
1996/02/26 MORI/Times 26 57 14
1996/02/16 NOP/Sunday Times 25 54 16
1996/02/12 MORI 26 57 14
1996/02/05 Gallup/Telegraph 28 54.5 14.5
1996/02/04 ICM/Guardian 31 47 19
1996/01/29 MORI 28 54 15
1996/01/22 MORI/Times 29 55 13
1996/01/19 NOP/Sunday Times 25 54 18
1996/01/17 NOP 33 47 14
1996/01/08 Gallup/Telegraph 21 60.5 14.5
1996/01/06 ICM/Guardian 26 48 22
1996/01/03 NOP/Sunday Times 29 52 13
1995/12/15 NOP/Sunday Times 25 55 16
1995/12/14 ICM/Observer 30 50 14
1995/12/09 ICM/Guardian 26 48 22
1995/12/04 Gallup/Telegraph 23 62 12
1995/12/04 MORI/Times 28 55 13
1995/12/01 NOP/Sunday Times 25 57 15
1995/11/20 MORI/Times 26 56 14
1995/11/17 NOP/Sunday Times 27 56 13
1995/11/05 ICM/Guardian 31 48 16
1995/10/30 Gallup/Telegraph 21.5 61 14.5
1995/10/23 MORI/Times 27 56 13
1995/10/20 NOP/Sunday Times 23 59 15
1995/10/07 ICM/Guardian 30 47 19
1995/10/02 Gallup/Telegraph 25.5 55.5 14
1995/09/25 MORI/Times 28 51 16
1995/09/15 NOP/Sunday Times 27 53 17
1995/09/09 ICM/Guardian 31 48 17
1995/09/04 Gallup/Telegraph 26.5 54.5 14
1995/08/28 MORI/Times 25 56 15
1995/08/18 NOP/Sunday Times 24 57 15
1995/08/05 ICM/Guardian 31 48 17
1995/07/31 Gallup/Telegraph 22.5 57.5 14.5
1995/07/31 ICM/Express 24 58 14
1995/07/24 MORI/Times 26 59 12
1995/07/21 MORI/LWT 30 52 13
1995/07/21 NOP/Sunday Times 26 55 14
1995/07/08 ICM/Guardian 32 47 17
1995/07/03 Gallup/Telegraph 25.5 57 13
1995/07/03 MORI/European 33 52 10
1995/06/27 MORI/Economist 31 55 11
1995/06/26 MORI/Times 29 56 13
1995/06/24 MORI/Mail on Sunday 32 54 11
1995/06/10 ICM/Guardian 24 53 19
1995/06/05 Gallup/Telegraph 20 59.5 14.5
1995/05/22 MORI/Times 22 58 16
1995/05/13 ICM/Guardian 29 48 19
1995/05/08 Gallup/Telegraph 23 55.5 16.5
1995/04/24 MORI/Times 26 56 15
1995/04/08 ICM/Guardian 26 51 18
1995/04/03 Gallup/Telegraph 23 57.5 15
1995/03/24 MORI/Sunday Times 25 59 12
1995/03/20 MORI/Times 25 57 13
1995/03/11 ICM/Guardian 27 52 17
1995/02/27 Gallup/Telegraph 20.5 60.5 15
1995/02/20 MORI/Times 24 58 14
1995/02/11 ICM/Guardian 31 49 17
1995/01/30 Gallup/Telegraph 23.5 59.5 13
1995/01/23 MORI/Times 27 56 14
1995/01/14 ICM/Guardian 30 48 18
1995/01/13 Harris/Sunday Times 25 60 12
1995/01/09 Gallup/Telegraph 18.5 62 14
1994/12/19 MORI/Times 22 61 13
1994/12/09 ICM/Observer 26 53 17
1994/12/05 Gallup/Telegraph 21.5 61 13.5
1994/12/03 ICM/Guardian 31 49 17
1994/11/21 MORI/Times 24 55 17
1994/11/05 ICM/Guardian 31 49 16
1994/10/31 Gallup/Telegraph 21.5 56.5 17
1994/10/24 MORI/Times 25 57 14
1994/10/08 ICM/Guardian 32 49 15
1994/10/03 Gallup/Telegraph 25.5 54 16.5
1994/09/27 Gallup/Telegraph 21 57.5 15.5
1994/09/26 MORI/Economist 25 52 18
1994/09/26 MORI/Times 25 54 17
1994/09/16 NOP/Independent 28 50 17
1994/09/10 ICM/Guardian 33 45 18
1994/09/05 Gallup/Telegraph 22 56.5 17
1994/08/26 NOP/Independent on Sunday 26 54 16
1994/08/22 MORI/Times 23 56 18
1994/08/06 ICM/Guardian 28 49 19
1994/08/01 Gallup/Telegraph 23 56.5 14.5
1994/07/18 MORI/Times 23 51 21
1994/07/09 ICM/Guardian 31 44 21
1994/07/04 Gallup/Telegraph 26.5 51 17.5
1994/06/20 MORI/Times 24 52 20
1994/06/10 ICM/Sunday Express 26.5 45.5 19
1994/06/06 MORI/Times 23 50 22
1994/06/04 ICM/Daily Express 27 45 22
1994/05/31 MORI/GMB 22 46 22
1994/05/30 Gallup/ Telegraph 21 54 21.5
1994/05/23 MORI/Times 27 46 23
1994/05/21 ICM/Guardian 30 44 20
1994/05/17 ICM/Express 26 48 23
1994/05/14 MORI/Sunday Times 26 49 20
1994/05/09 Gallup/Telegraph 24.5 45.5 25
1994/05/07 ICM/Guardian 29 44 24
1994/04/25 MORI/Times 26 47 23
1994/04/20 NOP/Independent 26 48 21
1994/04/09 ICM/Guardian 30 42 22
1994/04/04 Gallup/Telegraph 26.5 51.5 17.5
1994/04/01 MORI/Evening Standard 28 46 22
1994/03/31 NOP/Independent on Sunday 26 50 20
1994/03/28 MORI/Times 27 49 20
1994/03/12 ICM/Guardian 29 44 22
1994/02/28 Gallup/Telegraph 25 48.5 21
1994/02/28 MORI/Times 28 47 21
1994/02/12 ICM/Guardian 30 44 21
1994/01/31 Gallup/Telegraph 26 45.5 23
1994/01/27 Audience Selection/Sunday Mirror 28 41 24
1994/01/24 MORI/Times 28 48 20
1994/01/11 Gallup/Telegraph 25.5 46.5 20.5
1994/01/11 MORI/Sun 30 46 20
1994/01/08 ICM/Guardian 31 43 21
1993/12/14 ICM/Observer 26 48 23
1993/12/13 MORI/Times 29 47 20
1993/12/06 Gallup/Telegraph 27 48.5 20
1993/12/04 ICM/Guardian 31 42 23
1993/11/22 MORI/Times 29 47 22
1993/11/13 NOP/Sunday Times 27 47 21
1993/11/06 ICM/Guardian 34 38 24
1993/11/01 Gallup/Telegraph 24 46.5 25.5
1993/10/25 MORI/Times 29 45 23
1993/10/09 ICM/Guardian 36 39 20
1993/10/09 ICM/Sunday Express 30 40 26
1993/09/27 Gallup/Telegraph 23 44.5 27
1993/09/24 ICM/Sunday Express 27 41 26
1993/09/21 Gallup/Telegraph 23.5 44 26.5
1993/09/20 MORI/Times 29 43 25
1993/09/11 ICM/Guardian 29 40 26
1993/09/06 Gallup/Telegraph 25.5 46.5 23
1993/08/23 MORI/Times 28 42 25
1993/08/07 ICM/Guardian 30 36 27
1993/08/01 Gallup/Telegraph 23 44.5 27
1993/07/30 MORI/Sunday Times 27 41 28
1993/07/26 MORI/Times 27 44 25
1993/07/23 MORI/Sunday Times 34 44 18
1993/07/05 Gallup/Telegraph 24.5 43 26.5
1993/07/03 ICM/Guardian 32 37 25
1993/06/28 MORI/Times 28 46 23
1993/06/12 MORI/Sunday Times 29 44 22
1993/06/11 NOP/Independent on Sunday 27 42 26
1993/06/05 ICM/Guardian 31 38 26
1993/05/31 Gallup/Telegraph 25 49 23
1993/05/24 MORI/Times 28 44 24
1993/05/08 ICM/Guardian 32 38 24
1993/05/03 Gallup/Telegraph 30 47 17.5
1993/04/26 MORI/Times 32 46 20
1993/04/10 ICM/Guardian 34 39 21
1993/04/01 Gallup/Telegraph 30.5 49 15.5
1993/03/29 MORI/Times 32 47 17
1993/03/06 ICM/Guardian 36 41 18
1993/03/01 Gallup/Telegraph 32 49 14
1993/02/22 MORI/Times 34 46 16
1993/02/06 ICM/Guardian 37 39 18
1993/02/01 Gallup/Telegraph 33.5 46 15.5
1993/01/26 MORI/CCC 38 44 13
1993/01/21 MORI/Sunday Times 37 45 14
1993/01/11 Gallup/Telegraph 33.5 45.5 14.5
1993/01/09 ICM/Guardian 39 37 18
1992/12/15 MORI/Sunday Times 34 47 16
1992/12/05 ICM/Guardian 36 41 18
1992/12/01 MORI/Sunday Times 34 47 15
1992/11/30 Gallup/Telegraph 29 52 14
1992/11/20 ICM/Express 33 49 14
1992/11/12 Harris/Observer 32 51 14
1992/11/08 Harris/World in Action 30 53 13
1992/11/07 ICM/Guardian 36 40 19
1992/11/02 Gallup/Telegraph 32.5 50 13
1992/10/30 NOP/Independent on Sunday 34 47 14
1992/10/27 MORI/Sunday Times 35 45 15
1992/10/19 Gallup 29 51 14
1992/10/12 Gallup 36 45 14
1992/10/10 ICM/Guardian 38 38 19
1992/09/29 MORI/Sunday Times 37 43 16
1992/09/28 Gallup/Telegraph 37 44 15
1992/09/21 Gallup/Telegraph 37 42 17
1992/09/19 MORI/Sunday Times 39 43 15
1992/09/18 NOP/Independent on Sunday 39 41 16
1992/09/17 Harris/Observer 36 44 16
1992/09/07 Gallup 43 41 12
1992/09/05 ICM/Guardian 39 35 19
1992/09/02 MORI/Sunday Times 41 44 13
1992/08/21 MORI/Times 38 44 14
1992/08/14 NOP/Independent on Sunday 43 39 14
1992/08/08 ICM/Guardian 41 36 17
1992/08/03 Gallup 40.5 45 12
1992/07/28 MORI/Sunday Times 39 43 15
1992/07/16 Harris/Observer 44 38 15
1992/07/06 Gallup 42 38 16
1992/07/04 ICM/Guardian 45 36 15
1992/06/23 MORI/Sunday Times 42 39 16
1992/06/18 Harris/Observer 46 36 15
1992/06/06 ICM/Guardian 45 36 16
1992/06/01 Gallup 45 37 17
1992/05/26 MORI/Sunday Times 43 38 16
1992/05/17 Audience Selection 45 37 13
1992/05/14 Harris/Observer 46 37 13
1992/05/09 ICM/Guardian 45 34 17
1992/05/04 Gallup 42 39 17
1992/04/28 MORI/Sunday Times 43 38 16
1992/04/16 Harris/Observer 44 36 17
1992/04/12 Gallup 39 38 19
1992/04/11 Audience Selection 42 36 18
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