# Talk:Global warming/Archive 16

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What are general feelings on links to advocacy organizations as references? My view is that links to groups that 'spin' the science to promote a particular viewpoint -- whether the Sierra Club on the one hand or the co2science.org on the other -- belong in a separate article on policy. At the very least, links to such organizations shouldn't be under the general heading 'Scientific', which to me implies some attempt at objectivity. Raymond Arritt 01:33, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

## Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Anthropogenic global warming

Seeing as how it used to redirect here--172.162.149.247 15:23, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

## Carbon absorption

Could somebody more familiar with global carbon absorbtion please add that oceans actually absorb over 50% of the worlds carbon, a common misconception is that plants and trees absorb most of the world's carbon. This is important as the more carbon the oceans absorb, the more acidic they become (carbonic acid). Once ocean acidity reaches a certain level it will start to kill the ocean wildlife, starting with plankton, and as plankton is at the bottom of the food chain, this will decimate the entire chain. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 85.210.30.128 (talkcontribs) 13:57, 2 August 2006

1. That would belong in a carbon dioxide level article rather than this one.
2. I'd like to see a source, as carbonic acid is actually a very mild acid.
Samsara (talkcontribs) 14:04, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Ok, mild acid. Is not so much the "mild acid" part but the pH. The point is that no matter the acid, if the pH goes down too much so of the excessive H will begin reacting with vital minerals in sea water. As the presence of such minerals decline, the calcium that makes up the skeletons of some of this animals becomes a very attractive reacting partner for the excessive H ions.

See: Ocean acidification. Dragons flight 14:13, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
I got this information from a documentary I watched a couple of months ago, however I have about 20 or so documentaries about global warming and I can't remember which one it is right now and seeing this is just one small point it will take a while to find, will post the source when I find it. Thanks for the link to ocean acidification, do you think a note should be added in the predicted effects of global warming section with a link to the ocean acidification page? Also, addressing the above point about carbonic acid being a mild acid, I remember the documentary saying this wouldn't happen any time soon and after checking the ocean acidifcation page I found this "Between 1751 and 2004 surface ocean pH is estimated to have dropped from approximately 8.25 to 8.14 (Jacobson, 2005)." Weak acid or not it will still cause a pH drop eventually and if trends continue there definetly will come a point where the level of acidity will kill plankton.
As a rule, popular science documentations can give a good overview, but are not very good sources. They often not reliabiliy and they are rather bad at adequately covering multiple viewpoints. Anyways, we do cover this topic already. I've just added a link to ocean acidification.--Stephan Schulz 20:08, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Is acidification of the oceans a potential compounding effect? i.e. if plankton start to die due to acidification, will that release methane or cause the oceans to absorb less CO2 thereafter?

## Al gore editing?

Anyone think Al Gore had edited some of this page? I am sure he has......he loves the subject.

Well, it does conform to his POV. Perhaps we need to distinguish between the undisputed facts, and matters of scientific dispute.
What is the determining factor for deciding whether a given proposition is a "fact", a "theory" or a matter of "scientific consensus"? And should Wikipedia articles consider as 'undisputed fact' ideas which are held to be 'consensus' even if they are disputed? --Uncle Ed 13:13, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

So, since evolution is disputed in the US we should indeed give some room to creationist in wiki? It would lower our standards. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 (talkcontribs)

Its all wikiality. :P Whichever side shouts loudest wins. Kyaa the Catlord 13:36, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Thank God for Al. It's been so hot this week, and only he understands why. I love you Al! Smooches!!

Good idea Ed. Lets insist that "flat earthers" be allowed to dispute that the earth is round, and add POV warnings to all the astronomy articles on that basis... while were about it, lets re-write the NPOV policy to remove the undue weight clause... William M. Connolley 19:28, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

WMC, perhaps you shouldn't be so cavalier when casting aspersions on Flat Earthers. Someday Global Warmers may be just as ridiculed even though they currently enjoy the same "scientific consensus" Flat Earthers once had. Everyone wants to be part of a disaster; maybe that's why every generation thinks the world will end during its lifetime. -- LoudMouth 19:45, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
When ever in history did the Flat Earth theory have a "scientific consensus"? bikeable (talk) 19:46, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
• Oh, just for a good long while, until it was debunked. Now people laugh at the silly notion of such a thing. I'll grant you that it wasn't as pervasive as this theory, but yeah, there've been lots of things considered "generally accepted" that didn't turn out to be so.
I notice the lack of any sources. Are you aware of the fact that more than 2000 years ago Eratosthenes not only knew that the Earth was roughly sperical, but also computed its circumfence within a margin of error of roughly 1 percent? A flat Earth has not been accepted by scientific (or any informed) consensus ever since. --Stephan Schulz 20:26, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Exactly. It was accepted, then it was disproven, and now scientists and laypersons laugh at it. What goes around comes around. But GW may have a bit longer life cycle; there's a lot of political hay (and money) to be made. (Not that there aren't a LOT of people also deeply invested in seeing GW disproven - don't start calling me a Big Oil empty suit.) My only reason for remaining skeptical of Global Warming is that I believe in calling Bulls*it when I see it.
We just don't automatically assume your vision in these matters is 20-20, or even 2-50. Skyemoor 12:17, 20 August 2006 (UTC)
I don't doubt it's getting incrementally warmer. I just doubt that it won't cool again,
And the damage wrought in the thousands of years in between? We choose not to ignore unpleasant consequences of inaction.Skyemoor 12:17, 20 August 2006 (UTC)
and I really doubt that somehow evil Americans are responsible for it (AND can reverse it if we just throw enough money at it).
If you doubt AGW, then you need to provide evidence to sway the opinions of the scientific community. Until then, your name is telling. Skyemoor 12:17, 20 August 2006 (UTC)
WMC, Bikeable, and Stephan... Wow - I'm getting the Global Warming All Star Team treatment. Yeah! -- LoudMouth 20:39, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

There has never been scientific concensus that the earth was round. Thats like saying that there was scientific concensus that hell and heaven exist... There was general belief in the flatness of the earth but it has nothing to do with science. It was general. Also, be careful when you talk about the "scientific" because science back in the day was hardly distinguishable from philosophy, mathematics, and even "religion" (yep, bad spirits are the cause of disease.) It is only in more recent times when specialization has led clear boundaries across fields. Talk about politics. Any one know what happened to the first guy that proved that the square root of two could not be rational...? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 (talkcontribs)

Ermmm....2000 years ago, there was not scientific community or scientific consensus. The fact that the Earth is roughly spherical has been known since before the scientific method has been developed. So there never was a scientific consensus that the Earth was flat, and hence it never was overturned. --Stephan Schulz 07:28, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
• There are a lot of people heavily invested in making sure global warming is real. (Well, as long as it's caused by Americans.) So, believe what you will. Maybe someday we'll all figure out who was right and who was wrong. But I imagine we'll all be long dead before then. From old age, of course. -- LoudMouth 20:01, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Who is "heavily invested in making sure global warming is real"? And who claims it is caused (only) by Americans? Assuming the claim that doing something about CO2 emissions is bad for the economy (I have seen no hard evidence for this, but that is a different question), who has an interest in an economic depression? --Stephan Schulz 16:47, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
The DNC, for one. -- LoudMouth 12:37, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
I rest may case...--Stephan Schulz 12:59, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
See, he agrees that I'm right. Glad that's cleared up. -- LoudMouth 13:33, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
You know this is a funny topic to bring up, because there's an amatuer-looking YouTube video making fun of Al Gore and An Inconvenient Truth, but the Wall Street Journal was able to track the origin of the video back to ExxonMobil. If ExxonMobil is making YouTube videos to undermine Al Gore, you think they're not editing Wikipedia too? //// Pacific PanDeist * 19:02, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
It's funny, because that's an unsourced rumor, much like global warming, guess that's why the scare mongers bring it here--—(Kepin)RING THE LIBERTY BELL 20:11, 15 August 2006 (UTC)
That's how it works around here. It's not important that the facts support the argument. The severity of the accusation is all that counts. -- LoudMouth 18:28, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
So you can just rationalize away the DCI/Exxon relationship and pretend it doesn't exist? At least you use a consistent approach to matters. Skyemoor 12:20, 20 August 2006 (UTC)

Ok, so the environmentalist "INDUSTRY" or the OIL "community leaders!"  ?? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.148.248.208 (talkcontribs)

If you don't think there's serious (political) power and money to be had by exploiting the global warming gloom-and-doom campaign, you're just not paying attention. (As an aside, I also wouldn't be surprised to see Big Oil try to figure out a way to cash in on it, were it to ever be a major issue for the general public. Think Phillip Morris running anti-smoking ads). LoudMouth 18:23, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

Ah, this discussion might just go to show us that perhaps what scientists say is influenced many times not by (just) why they think, but what is safe and/or beneficial to say? And if we want to talk about measurements, when were the pyramids built? Does anyone know that? And how did they build them to such precise dimensions, in a place that doesn't change, on exact compass lines? Some things we'll never know, yes. And indeed! That has nothing to do with Global Warming. Nor with Al Gore.

Gruß Gott!! --- πΔΩΦ 04:19, 10 August 2006 (UTC)

Stephan - (1)Eratosthenes did not prove that the earth was round, he merely used mathematics to estimate its shape and circumference; in other words, he created a model. Models are not proof. The roundness of the earth wasn't proven (by hard, empirical evidence) until September 6, 1522 when the surviving members of Ferdinand Magellan's expedition finally completed a circumnavigation of the globe. Similarly, GW models must be considered theoretical until future events prove or disprove them. (2) Wide-spread belief that the world was flat persisted well beyond Eratosthenes' time. On his first voyage, Christopher Columbus's crew nearly mutinied over fears that they would sail off the edge of the earth, nearly 1500 years after Eratosthenes. And a question for anyone with an answer - How did Al Gore wind up as the point-man for the crusade against GW? The guy has claimed that he invented the internet and that the movie "Love Story" was about him & Tipper (not to mention the fact that he married Tipper in the first place). Not exactly the paragon of credibility a movement usually looks for in a poster-boy. 130.36.62.140 16:59, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Magellan's voyage wasn't "proof", either -- it could be explained by a toroidal Earth, among others. Eratosthenes refined a model that we still use today. I confess that as an epidemiologist I find "proof" rather a slippery concept. As for the Gore/internet story, puh-lease -- that old chestnut is simply BS; see [1]. bikeable (talk) 17:18, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
In that case, Yuri Gagarin proved that roundness of the earth when he became the first to orbit it. And drawing distinctions between "inventing the internet" and "creating the internet" is just playing games with semantics - either way he tried to claim more credit than he deserved. (For the record, I voted for Gore when he ran against Bush, so don't bother trying to chalk this up to me being some kind of right-wing fanatic.)130.36.62.140 17:34, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Nope, Gagarin never proved it either. That was all Russian propaganda! It's a good thing, then, that science does not deal with "proof", only with models, theories, and evidence. Note that I never claimed Erathosthenes proved the Earth was round, but that he knew. Nobody will ever prove "global warming models", either, although we might disprove some of them (and then probably refine them into better models). Nobody has "proved" gravity either, and still I brace myself for a fall when I stumble...
And Columbus crew was, of course, not afraid about falling off the edge of the Earth, but of sailing onto an ocean of unknown size, following the prevailing winds, without adequate supplies. Contrary to a common misconception, Columbus also was not laughed out of every expert meeting for suggesting the Earth was round, but for suggesting that it's circumfence was only 25000 km and that Japan was about 3500 km off the European coasts. --Stephan Schulz 18:12, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
I suppose John Glenn, Project Apollo and the Space Shuttle program are all just propaganda too? And the Hubble Space Telescope, International Space Station and the multitude of communications satellites allegedly orbiting the earth and making things like wikipedia possible don't really exist? By that reasoning how do we know that all the "evidence" supporting GW isn't just propaganda? The point here is that dragging out the old, tired flat-earth argument for excluding opposition viewpoints is just plain weaselly. The two subjects have nothing in common, since the roundness of the earth can be immediately proven by taking pictures of it from orbit. The effects of human activity on global climate over the next 10/50/100+ years, on the other hand, can only be proven by waiting 10/50/100+ years to see if actuality follows the models.130.36.62.140 18:45, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Stephan didn't say the Earth wasn't round, just that you can't prove it -- as you can't prove any scientific theory. In fact, the programs you cite provide excellent evidence to support the theory that the Earth is (more or less) round. Personally, I believe it. I don't know where this little discussion we are having comes from or where it's going, but I suspect it is from that old misapprehension about the word "theory". Just because global warming is a "theory" does not mean we do not understand it relatively well. If you have specific criticisms related to the article, please make suggestions. bikeable (talk) 19:05, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

## pro-skeptics bias

From reading the article, and especially from reading the discussion page, I have to come to the conclusion that this page needs an unbiased expert to review it. The page appears to have a subtle bias towards those who claim global warming is either A. not caused by humans, B. a good thing, or C. yet to be proven. Anyone with a high school level of experience in the Bio lab can show that bruning fuels increases carbon dioxide levels, so why are even the basics such as this still the subject of debate in the discussion page? It's time the free time wiki-warriors got out of this fight and let some pro's revise it. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 68.49.13.119 (talkcontribs) .

Wow. I am not sure which article you were reading, but, if anything, this article is, and this is being charitable, WILDLY biased in favor of those on the left who believe that global warming is a fact. The statements, arguments, citations, sources, etc. are all VERY selective and TOTALLY biased in favor of one viewpoint -- the alleged anthropegenic nature of global warming. --The Outhouse Mouse 19:22, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
Why on earth should the scientific opinion be a matter of "left" or "right"? Policy reactions to it, sure, but why the facts?--Stephan Schulz 20:28, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
An unbiased expert is hard to find these days, and you certainly won't find one lurking in this discussion. But you sure read this thing different than I do; I see your ABC as the complete opposite as far as the main article goes. 72.129.83.116 07:11, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
No, it's not. It's just that most of the unbiased experts, looking at the evidence, arrive at roughly the same conclusion. That is not bias, it is science. To the original remark: You should not judge the article by the least informed comments on the talk page. Fortunately, most of the article itself has been written by some of the most informed participants. --Stephan Schulz 07:34, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
Your definition of "Informed" seems to mean arriving at the same conclusions as those who wield the power in this article. Others, who after reading the same papers come to a different conclusion, are treated like witches in 1690's Salem; their additions reverted and their talk bullied into resignation. 66.81.20.197 10:09, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
This kind of stuff will do you no good, its just whinging. If you can find a specific example that you want to discuss we might get somewhere. Remember to check that it hasn't been done to death already though William M. Connolley 10:45, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
I agree it will do no good, which is why I didn't start the topic. I just answered it truthfully (which is why it will do no good.) Specific examples??? Oh my goodness that's a deer-in-the-headlights response to a problem that's been ongoing since this article's inception. It's well written and deserves its accolades based on that fact but as far as its usefulness to educators and their students (at least in K-12) it's a little too one sided to be used in any meaningful way. 66.81.20.167 20:54, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
I should think that finding an unbiased expert is very near to an impossibility. In the process of becoming an "expert" it is human nature to form certain opinions on a given subject, making it very difficult to remain unbiased. Understand that in the strict sense, an unbiased expert should be possible but I believe it to be very, very unlikely. Patris Magnus 18:13, 12 September 2006 (UTC)

I must ask what course you teach, if any. I would never teach this controversy in a science course. Otherwise, I would have to teach that HIV does not cause AIDS, that the earth is not necessarily round, and the evolution may not explain species variety (rather, some designer...) There are opposing "scientists" to the scientific concensus in each example I just mentioned, but that does not mean that you have to teach their views becuase they are all economically motivated. (its funny that the ID movement originator is also one of the first to claim that HIV does not cause AIDS. I think he wants label the disease as a punishment for "Bad behavior."

What do you want? A balance between a well-supported sicentific theory acknowledged by all professional scientific organizations that ever spoke out on it, that has unanimous support in the literature and overwhelming support in the scientific community on the one hand, and a public relations stunt pushed by a few weirdos on the other? --Stephan Schulz 21:36, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
Au contrare...there is FAR FAR from unanimous agreement. --The Outhouse Mouse 19:24, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
Well, his French ain't much - it's "contraire" DMorpheus 21:08, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
Please dial it back and comment on content, not contributors. Dragons flight 21:21, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
And that single sentence speaks volumes on why there is a problem with this article and why many have thrown up their hands in surrender when trying to add things of value. Remember, this is not a research paper and this is not a science journal or even a scientific encyclopedia; this is a free general encyclopedia for the masses. The heavy-handedness of the few in true power smacks of bias. Even in editing out postings in this talk section I see things written that are truly inappropriate from both sides of the aisle but far and away the ones that get expurgated or reprimanded are the ones written against global warming. When I see the bias and rudness in the handling of this simple talk page how is an educator to believe that the same thing isn't being done in the main body? Believe it or not there is a Global Warming controversy out in the everyday world; away from climate scientist polytechnic. When reading something one is on the tip of understanding in the first place and "knowing" there is a controversy one wants to know why others believe in the exact opposite. True, some of the science may be fringe or bit dicey or for every good point brought up on "no" global warming there are two saying why that won't work, but without the balance this reads as a political mailing, and I get enough of those every November. 66.81.21.62 05:25, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
This article focuses primarily on the scientific case surrounding global warming, however we do have global warming controversy which is intended to cover the social/political/scientific controversy surrounding the subject. How well this, or any other article, does at covering its subject matter is always going to be in the eye of the beholder. Every reader (and editor) comes to this article with their own preconceptions that necessarily influence how it is percieved and written. The best we can do is try to write fairly and use discussion to rectify disparate points of view. Often we do okay, sometimes we fail, but as this is a wiki there are always opportunities to make it better in the future. Dragons flight 05:47, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
The members of the Left have taken every opportunity to denigrate, minimize, disparage, impugn, attack, and relegate to the "back seat," the opinions of erudite, notable, and well-qualified academics, members of the scientific community, and other members of the cognoscenti who disagree with the official Socialist line on global warming. I am just surprised that they haven't yet used the article to break into an attack on conservatives.--The Outhouse Mouse 19:27, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
This is true but the article is entitled "Global Warming" not "The Scientific Case Surrounding Global Warming." Most people will type in just "Global Warming" so like it or not this "IS" the frontpiece of the encyclopedia. I expect more from a desk encyclopedia and I certainly expect better here. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad this article is here and that the group is diligent in erasing graffiti; I'm glad it gets people talking about the subject and in seeing scientists actually taking a working part in building such a site. The students like that. At the same time we show the great disappontments we have with the article and the fact that the power hierarchy here, just as in world politics, corrupts. 66.81.21.36 08:26, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
"I expect more from a desk encyclopedia"...well, in the great Wikipedia vs. Britannica shootout, global warming was excluded because the EB did not have adequate coverage of the topic. We do mention the (minimal) dissent in the introduction (and I've just put in a link to the global warming controversy article that was missing). If you're students are "disappointed with the article", they are welcome to improve it. They should be aware, of course, that a large amount of work by rather knowledgable people has gone into the article and "things I heard on CBS last night" are unlikely to be accepted as well-sourced and authorative. But since we actually have no corrupt power hierarchy, everybody who contributes in a constructive manner is welcome.--Stephan Schulz 09:17, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

(carriage return) The article accurately reflects the current state of the science. Why mislead K-12 students by giving excessive weight to hypotheses that are not widely accepted by scientists in relevant fields? There's already too much of that going on in the U.S. with respect to evolution and some other topics. Raymond Arritt 02:59, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

Freeman Dyson is skeptical of global warming. 65.95.41.136 00:56, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
Your point? --Stephan Schulz 07:30, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

AS for "anyone with a high school experience" — it isn't so clear cut as you probably know, rarely is there a linear correlation with anything. Elle vécut heureuse à jamais (Be eudaimonic!) 14:16, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

I come off at times as argumentive (I am) and annoying (I am) and so on and so forth. This article is very good, very well written, very filled with citations supporting the claims. From my viewpoint (Which is: There's a lot of evidence of something but no proof of anything) is that the article is not biased. Nope.

What it is, however, is that it's very focused on some aspects of the debate and not upon others. In that respect, it becomes biased, in a way, by the focus of others who are writing it. That's to be expected. If the subject was one of "absolute" proof or fact, that's a different thing then an article on what causes time, what's the best economic or political system, how much cheese there is in Norway....

To my way of thinking, the reason there's so much contention on this entire subject is that there is no proof as one would normally expect it; what we'd expect from burning methane into a beaker filled with dynamite, vs how burning methane reacts in the atmosphere to cloud cover when the ocean is warmer during the day and the volcanos are errupting under intense blizzards in Spain while holding a giraffe, blah blah blah) Of couse, we all know no professional scientific organization would never be biased or go along with things other than science, things like politics or funding or a degree program or peer pressure or media coverage.

But as to here, "Water turns into steam at 212 F," turns into a discussion of if it's better to cite it as C rather than F, or adding in things like oh, what atmosphere is it, is it not pure or it is pure, is this calories, are we talking about joules, what's the ambiant temperature, what humdity level is it, what's the gravity.... So, let's turn a discussion on physics into one of chemistry into one of experiments in a lab versus in the real world, mix them all together, toss in 8 other subjects, and then not talk about the same thing. Ya think?

"1 calorie is needed per degree Kelvin of temperature change for 1 gram of liquid water." "Blue is better than indigo. Because 460 is a bigger positive number than 430 is."

Sln3412 05:40, 10 August 2006 (UTC) 299792458, dude.

After reading the section on computer models, I believe the "experts" need to consult a mathematician. Not the "experts" here, I mean the "experts" who made up these models. The data input into these models seems tenuous at best - the ability to predict next month's weather is daunting, these guys are positive about 100 years into the future - fat chance. Publish there data and methods - I understand some data is being held close to the chest ( this is the opposite of peer review I believe - tree ring data is what I am most familiar with ) )PS My father - in the early 1900s - remembers when kids flew kites in March. From his childhood to mine, we were still building snow forts in March. Today most Marchs are mud season. Which model predicts this? Do these models work backward in time - why was Greenland green in the 1400s? Global warming - as a trend for us to hyperventilate about - seems more and more like a hoax - in 1974 Time magazine was pushing global cooling ( same "experts" I suspect.) PSPS No mathematical model can possible be good enough - no computer is that fast. If I saw a model that was able to return a result in less than years of running I would check the programmers code. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 159.105.80.92 (talkcontribs) 15:29, 3 November 2006 (UTC)

I suggest you do read and digest not just one section, but our whole set of articles. The science is fairly solid. The fact that you confuse weather and climate, that you rely on anecdotal evidence, and that you blindly repeat a incorrect version of the global cooling story (even assuming that the pool of climate experts has not changed in 32 years...) strongly suggests that your understanding of the topic is not.--Stephan Schulz 15:46, 3 November 2006 (UTC)

## Not completely neutral

This page doesn't have a truly neutral point of view. It should use several different pieces of data from independent sources, not just from the same, bogus "hockey stick". --ChevyFanatic 16:19, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

You mean it might be nice to have a picture showing different reconstructions, not just the hockey stick... oh... wait... William M. Connolley 16:31, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
Like THIS ONE? Please... --The Outhouse Mouse 19:36, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
No, like the one in the article actually based on observations. As for the one you reference... you've been lied to, see MWP and LIA in IPCC reports for the details William M. Connolley 20:45, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
Wow. So you're saying that the Wall Street Journal and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are lying to me? --The Outhouse Mouse 15:14, 7 September 2006 (UTC)
The "hockey stick" is based on observations. I do not know of any datasets that suggest global (surface) cooling, or time series without positive interannual trends over the past 30 years. I would be interested to see such a dataset if it exists. LotR 18:29, 8 August 2006 (UTC)

The only question we need to discuss is:

1. Do we want this page to reflect a multiplicity of views? Or,
2. Do we want this page to lean toward the view that Mann's hockey stick is right and that the recent global warming is mostly human-caused?

Contributors in good faith can disagree on how to implement NPOV, but I'd like to see some agreement from long-timers on the fact that the article should be neutral on all controversial matters. --Uncle Ed 20:32, 8 August 2006 (UTC)

What specifically do you propose? --TeaDrinker 20:38, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
Ed appears to be proposing that we confuse attribution of climate change with the HS [2]. Since this is wrong, his entire premise collapses William M. Connolley 20:45, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
You are imputing Ed's intentions where none exist. Perhaps if you were to ask him for clarification instead of making conclusions for him then we might have meaningful discourse on the subject. --The Outhouse Mouse 15:39, 7 September 2006 (UTC)
The hockey stick says nothing about cause and is as consistent with natural causes as with anthropogenic causes. The anthropogenic attribution is largely model based, and they are given credibility far beyond the current state of their science.--63.226.208.50 11:40, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
It's true that the (mean surface temperature) "hockey stick" alone does not provide indication of cause. However, do keep in mind that there are "other hockey sticks." The observed concurrent positive trends in CO2 (1.5 ppm / year) (and CH4) are, in all likelihood, attributable to anthropogenic causes. In any event, this section asks for independent, "non-hockey-stick" datasets for NPOV, but the point is that practically all datasets (that I'm aware of, anyway) show the "hockey sticks." LotR 14:10, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
True. But the point oyu are missing is that the palaeo record - last 1000 y - has little to do with attribution of recent change, as the link I provided attempts to tell you. The idea that the HS, or others like it, underpins GW is a myth spread by the septics William M. Connolley 16:30, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
The hockey stick did contribute to global warming alarm, since the rate of warming appeared to increase, but the rate may be an artifact of the better representation of high frequencies in recent data. 20th century solar activity is unusually high, and the interrupting episode of aerosol cooling contributes to the high frequency appearance of what may well be a longer term response to that solar activity. Models are not yet accurate enough to tease out attribution of the recent warming.--63.226.208.50 09:34, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
Time-scales are problematic. Comparing the last 2 or 20 or 200 years with the last 200 thousand or 200 million is a very long and wide mine field. Sln3412 04:24, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
Yes, higher frequencies are damped due to the lower resolution of older paleo data, a period of warming as short as the recent one, may well be missed in the paleo data.--63.226.208.50 09:38, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
The entire HS debate is just like so many others; it becomes a point of discussion in and of itself. That takes attention away from the subject and into the abyss of discussion. Sln3412 03:57, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
Discussion is where we have the space and liberty to clarify what we mean. That seems more like a pinnicle than an abyss. Do you have any remaining questions?--63.226.208.50 09:14, 11 August 2006 (UTC)

Wow...I see 'ol Willy and a couple others are still trying to manage this little page, lol. I see that everyone who has tried to make any changes that would (heaven forbid) not strengthen the "ANTHRO" side of GW is STILL being shut out, reverted etc. All I can say is...this page doesn't mean anything really...and is why I stopped trying to fight you & "them"...It doesn't sway anyone's or the general public's opinion, change government policy or any of that. It's just a personal hobby for some extremists. Hope your still enjoying it and how's the weather in antartica :) —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 158.147.53.196 (talkcontribs) .

## Predictions

cut subsection

### Global Warming Effects on the Future

The potential effects of CO2 on climate become more significant as we look into the future. Estimated present day reserves of fossil fuels (mainly coal) should last for another few hundred years and will add far more CO2 to the atmosphere than has accumulated so far. Unless human technology or extreme conservation efforts reduces this, atmospher CO2 levels will increase within two centuries to levels at least two and possibly four or five times higher than those that existed before humans. Levels this high are comparable to those last seen tens of millions of years ago in warmer greenhouse worlds. This warming will cause environmental changes. As regional patterns of temperature and precipitation change, impacts on human populations will vary by season. Atmospher CO2 levels will remain high for 1000 of years or more, until the ocean absorbs the excess CO2.

I cut the preceding subsection, as it lacks sources and reads more like an argument for reducing CO2 emissions. Does it even belong here, or should it go to Kyoto Protocol or Emissions trading?

Anyway, we need more info about the relationship of air temperature and CO2 levels in the historical temperature record. Last month, I saw a graph illustrating the point the CO2 increases are caused by temperature increases. At least temp went up first, then CO2 went up; same for down. --Uncle Ed 17:24, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

Try What does the lag of CO2 behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming? crandles 17:45, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
Just for once I agree with Ed. Sorry about that :-). The article *should* have something in it about future CO2 levels, but I think it does already, higher up William M. Connolley 17:57, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
crandles - At the end of the article you cited, it reads "CO2 might be stored in the deep ocean during ice ages, and then get released when the climate warms." However, it has been stated more than once on this page that the oceans are currently absorbing large amounts of CO2. Wouldn't this be indicative of an approaching ice age, rather than GW?130.36.62.140 16:21, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
The oceans currently absorb CO2 because of a simple chemical imbalance. We add a lot of CO2 to the atmosphere, and part of this is absorbed into the ocean. Note that atmosperic CO2 levels still increase. This has nothing to do with an ice age. --Stephan Schulz 16:31, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

The same contributor restored the above section and followed it with this:

The future within the next 500 years is that when crude oil runs out. After that there will be alternative fuels such as ethanol, biodiesel, hydrogen, and many more types that come from the earths crust and return to the earth crust for a completely renewable cycle. When this comes then global warming will still be here but will start to decline slowly.

I agree that with the above statements that to the extent this information is correct and useful, it needs to be better referenced and presented. Dragons flight 20:24, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

Someone made a change that just made a particular sentence redundant. The changer changed "predict" to estimate, which I thought was fine, but then said that the models estimates assume that we are not going to curb emissions. The next sentence says that estimates are difficult because we do not know future emissions and climate variability. Thus, I too away the part that says "assumes that we will not curb emissions" since this is stated better in the next sentence... Sorry if I am redundant, I am new at this... Brusegadi 04:40, 10 August 2006 (UTC)

I made that change because the IPCC scenarios are explciity based on 'what if' storylines that assume that nothing will be done about emissions because of climate change. Obviously, even with that caveat the emissions are difficult to predict so I did not see it as contradictory with the following sentence. I still think it is useful to state this assumption up front though. 209.79.152.198 12:32, 12 August 2006 (UTC)

I see what you mean, but I feel it is somehow redundant. Perhaps with better phrasing the assumption of the panel can be explecitly stated. I'll see if I come up with something. Brusegadi 21:51, 12 August 2006 (UTC)

### Common misconceptions

Half the Norwegian Wikipedia article on global warming is a list of misconceptions about global warming, with discussion/refutations. The choice of misconceptions seems biased, but mentioning in the article that there are numerous common misconceptions, and listing and discussing them, seems like a good idea. As it is now, several issues that preoccupy many people are represented only on this discussion page instead of in an article. I suggest someone makes a separate article called "Common misconceptions about global warming" that lists and discusses claims that are unscientific, very improbable or poorly founded in science. It is rather obvious that misconceptions are abundant amongst laymen - and I guess laymen are the main target group for the Global warming article. Notice that pro-science advocates seem to forget that a huge number of people seem to hold an unrealistic and often scientifically unfounded sense of impending apocalypse, mainly due to sensationalist tabloid newspapers. This should be addressed, as should a lot of the refuted claims on this discussion page. On the other hand, a list of misconceptions - this is a too strong concept, perhaps? - may end up too black-and-white, showing a disregard for the subtleties that the article in its present form has. I'd welcome viewpoints on this. Narssarssuaq 12:04, 10 August 2006 (UTC)

This could be useful but probably best as a separate article. The main entry is already bordering on too long. As a start maybe you could translate the Norwegian version. Raymond Arritt 02:30, 11 August 2006 (UTC)

From what I understand, 'misconceptions' refer to what some British have been calling "climate porn." This 'misconceptions' were not brought about by scientists but by media and politicians. Thus, it might make sense to deal with them in the page where we deal with the media and politics of global warming and not in the page where we deal with the science of global warming. Making a separate page may be good, but I feel that it would also be ok to treat them in a more politically leaning article. I feel that as long as we dont put it here, in the science part, it should be fine. Brusegadi 02:37, 11 August 2006 (UTC)

That sounds interesting, all of it. I don't know myself if any of this is anywhere near apolitical on its basic level. It's very difficult to take any large organization or group or subject and see exactly what is social, what is political, what is economic, what is professional, and what is something else (or a mix). So perhaps trying to make this subject anything else than what it is, is impossible. It looks fairly difficult already just in the current format. Sln3412 03:49, 11 August 2006 (UTC)