United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016

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United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016

← 2014 November 8, 2016 2022 →
  Brian Schatz, official portrait, 113th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg John carroll.jpg
Nominee Brian Schatz John Carroll
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 306,604 92,653
Percentage 70.1% 21.2%

Hawaii Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County results
Schatz:      70–80%

U.S. Senator before election

Brian Schatz
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Brian Schatz
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii was held November 8, 2016, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 13.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Brian Schatz won reelection to his first full term in office, defeating former state legislator John Carroll.

Background[edit]

In 2011, Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old.[1][2] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."[3]

Inouye died on December 17, 2012.[4] Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz, a Democrat, to succeed Inouye. Schatz won a 2014 special election to serve the remainder of Inouye's term.[5]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[9][10][11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brian Schatz (Incumbent) 162,891 86.17%
Democratic Makani Christensen 11,898 6.29%
Democratic Miles Shiratori 8,620 4.56%
Democratic Arturo Reyes 3,819 2.02%
Democratic Tutz Honeychurch 1,815 0.96%
Total votes 189,043 100.00%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

  • Charles Collins, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and for Governor of Hawaii in 2014[12]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[9][10][11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Carroll 26,747 74.58%
Republican John P. Roco 3,956 11.03%
Republican Karla Gottschalk 3,045 8.49%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski 2,114 5.89%
Total votes 35,862 100.00%

Other primaries[edit]

Libertarian[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]
  • Michael Kokoski, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[6]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary results[9][10][11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Michael Kokoski 909 100.00%
Total votes 909 100.00%

Constitution[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]
  • Joy Allison, independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[6]

Results[edit]

Constitution primary results[9][10][11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Joy Allison 217 100.00%
Total votes 217 100.00%

American Shopping[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]
  • John Giuffre[6]

Results[edit]

American Shopping primary results[9][10][11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent John Giuffre 111 100.00%
Total votes 111 100.00%

General election[edit]

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Brian Schatz (D)[13] $3,316,074 $1,195,572 $3,074,380
John Carroll (R)

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[14] Safe D September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[16] Safe D September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[17] Safe D September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[18] Safe D September 15, 2016

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schatz (D)
John
Carroll (R)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 467 ± 4.6% 69% 27% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 428 ± 4.6% 70% 26% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 424 ± 4.6% 70% 26% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 435 ± 4.6% 68% 26% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 426 ± 4.6% 67% 29% 4%
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 426 ± 4.6% 70% 26% 4%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016 [19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Brian Schatz (Incumbent) 306,604 70.1% N/A
Republican John Carroll 92,653 21.2% N/A
Constitution Joy Allison 9,103 2.1% N/A
Libertarian Michael Kokowski 6,809 1.6% N/A
American Shopping Party John Giuffre 1,393 0.3%
Blank votes 20,763 4.7%
Over votes 339 0.0%
Majority 213,951 48.88%
Total votes 437,664 100.0%
Democratic hold Swing

References[edit]

  1. ^ Manu Raju and John Bresnahan (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico. 
  2. ^ Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News - Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News. The Maui News. Retrieved September 2, 2012. 
  3. ^ Mizutani, Ron (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". KHON2. Retrieved March 3, 2011. 
  4. ^ "Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88". Washington Post. Retrieved December 17, 2012. 
  5. ^ a b Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Retrieved January 29, 2015. 
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Federal State County Sorted by: Contest" (PDF). Hawaii Secretary of State. Retrieved June 8, 2016. 
  7. ^ Stephen O'Harrow (August 18, 2014). "Dan Inouye and Brian Schatz: A Lesson in Hawaii Politics". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 26, 2015. 
  8. ^ a b Blair, Chad (March 14, 2015). "Tulsi Gabbard Looks to Be Running for Re-election". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 26, 2015. 
  9. ^ a b c d e "Statewide Results" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved August 13, 2016. 
  10. ^ a b c d e "Hawaii Senate Races Results". Politico. Retrieved August 13, 2016. 
  11. ^ a b c d e http://results.elections.hawaii.gov/2016/primary/summary.txt
  12. ^ "Charles Collins for US Senate". Retrieved December 29, 2015. 
  13. ^ "Schatz, Brian — Candidate for Senate". Federal Elections Commission. Retrieved August 15, 2016. 
  14. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016. 
  15. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016. 
  16. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016. 
  17. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016. 
  18. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016. 
  19. ^ "Office of Elections – State of Hawaii – Statewide". State of Hawaii Office of Elections. August 16, 2016. p. 1. Retrieved November 18, 2016. 

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites