2016 United States presidential election in Arkansas
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| Elections in Arkansas |
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Arkansas was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arkansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
Although Clinton once served as the First Lady of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981 and from 1983 to 1992 as the wife of then-Governor Bill Clinton, Arkansas was considered to be a state Trump would win or otherwise a safe red state. Bill Clinton won the state twice in 1992 and 1996, but the state has trended Republican in every election since the 2000, and no Democrat won a statewide election there since 2010. Trump won the state with 60.57% of the vote, and Hillary Clinton received 33.65% of the vote.[2] The Republican candidate has carried Arkansas in every election starting in 2000. This is also the first election in which the state simultaneously voted for a Republican presidential candidate and a Republican Senate candidate. Arkansas was 1 of 11 states that voted twice for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016.
Trump's 60.57% share of the vote is tied with Mitt Romney's 60.57% in 2012, making both candidates' performances the best result for the Republicans in Arkansas since Richard Nixon in 1972. However, Trump bested Romney in terms of margin, winning by 26.92% versus Romney's 23.69%. The Prohibition Party candidate, James Hedges, also had the notable achievement of finishing third in Arkansas County, ahead of major third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, the only county in the country where he did so.
Primary elections
[edit]On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Arkansas voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, Green, Libertarian, Constitution, and Prohibition parties' respective nominees for president. Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.
Democratic primary
[edit]
Opinion polling
[edit]Results
[edit]Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 37
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 146,057 | 66.08% | 22 | 5 | 27 |
| Bernie Sanders | 66,236 | 29.97% | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 2,785 | 1.26% | |||
| John Wolfe Jr. | 2,556 | 1.16% | |||
| James Valentine | 1,702 | 0.77% | |||
| Rocky De La Fuente | 1,684 | 0.76% | |||
| Total | 221,020 | 100% | 32 | 5 | 37 |
| Sources: The Green Papers and Official County results (provisional) Arkansas Secretary of State | |||||
Republican primary
[edit]
Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[3][4]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 134,744 | 32.79% | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Ted Cruz | 125,340 | 30.50% | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| Marco Rubio | 101,910 | 24.80% | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Ben Carson | 23,521 | 5.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich | 15,305 | 3.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 4,792 | 1.17% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 2,402 | 0.58% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 1,151 | 0.28% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 631 | 0.15% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 411 | 0.10% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 292 | 0.07% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) | 252 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Jindal (withdrawn) | 169 | 0.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 410,920 | 100.00% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
General election
[edit]Polling
[edit]Predictions
[edit]The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arkansas as of Election Day.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[5] | Safe R | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[6] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[7] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| NBC[9] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[10] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[11] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| ABC[12] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Results
[edit]| 2016 United States presidential election in Arkansas[13] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | % | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | Mike Pence | 684,872 | 60.57% | 6 | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | Tim Kaine | 380,494 | 33.65% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | William Weld | 29,949 | 2.64% | 0 | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin | Nathan Johnson | 13,176 | 1.17% | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein | Ajamu Baraka | 9,473 | 0.84% | 0 | |
| Prohibition Party | Jim Hedges | Bill Bayes | 4,709 | 0.42% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle | Scott Bradley | 4,613 | 0.41% | 0 | |
| Independent | Lynn S. Kahn | Kathleen Monahan | 3,390 | 0.30% | 0 | |
| Total | 1,130,676 | 100.00% | 6 | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Arkansas | 3,826 | 61.59% | 1,939 | 31.21% | 447 | 7.20% | 1,887 | 30.38% | 6,212 |
| Ashley | 5,338 | 66.04% | 2,408 | 29.79% | 337 | 4.17% | 2,930 | 36.25% | 8,083 |
| Baxter | 14,682 | 74.28% | 4,169 | 21.09% | 915 | 4.63% | 10,513 | 53.19% | 19,766 |
| Benton | 60,871 | 62.87% | 28,005 | 28.92% | 7,948 | 8.21% | 32,866 | 33.95% | 96,824 |
| Boone | 12,235 | 75.94% | 2,926 | 18.16% | 950 | 5.90% | 9,309 | 57.78% | 16,111 |
| Bradley | 2,164 | 59.24% | 1,317 | 36.05% | 172 | 4.71% | 847 | 23.19% | 3,653 |
| Calhoun | 1,556 | 68.58% | 639 | 28.16% | 74 | 3.26% | 917 | 40.42% | 2,269 |
| Carroll | 6,786 | 63.08% | 3,342 | 31.07% | 630 | 5.85% | 3,444 | 32.01% | 10,758 |
| Chicot | 1,716 | 41.09% | 2,350 | 56.27% | 110 | 2.64% | -634 | -15.18% | 4,176 |
| Clark | 4,404 | 51.65% | 3,620 | 42.46% | 502 | 5.89% | 784 | 9.19% | 8,526 |
| Clay | 3,781 | 72.71% | 1,199 | 23.06% | 220 | 4.23% | 2,582 | 49.65% | 5,200 |
| Cleburne | 9,458 | 78.26% | 2,101 | 17.39% | 526 | 4.35% | 7,357 | 60.87% | 12,085 |
| Cleveland | 2,462 | 73.40% | 723 | 21.56% | 169 | 5.04% | 1,739 | 51.84% | 3,354 |
| Columbia | 5,456 | 61.39% | 3,140 | 35.33% | 291 | 3.28% | 2,316 | 26.06% | 8,887 |
| Conway | 4,849 | 61.17% | 2,656 | 33.51% | 422 | 5.32% | 2,193 | 27.66% | 7,927 |
| Craighead | 22,892 | 64.35% | 10,538 | 29.62% | 2,143 | 6.03% | 12,354 | 34.73% | 35,573 |
| Crawford | 16,686 | 74.33% | 4,488 | 19.99% | 1,276 | 5.68% | 12,198 | 54.34% | 22,450 |
| Crittenden | 6,964 | 43.66% | 8,410 | 52.72% | 578 | 3.62% | -1,446 | -9.06% | 15,952 |
| Cross | 4,584 | 66.69% | 1,999 | 29.08% | 291 | 4.23% | 2,585 | 37.61% | 6,874 |
| Dallas | 1,509 | 54.46% | 1,165 | 42.04% | 97 | 3.50% | 344 | 12.42% | 2,771 |
| Desha | 1,919 | 45.08% | 2,228 | 52.34% | 110 | 2.58% | -309 | -7.26% | 4,257 |
| Drew | 3,968 | 60.17% | 2,365 | 35.86% | 262 | 3.97% | 1,603 | 24.31% | 6,595 |
| Faulkner | 29,346 | 61.75% | 14,629 | 30.78% | 3,552 | 7.47% | 14,717 | 30.97% | 47,527 |
| Franklin | 5,039 | 74.43% | 1,376 | 20.32% | 355 | 5.25% | 3,663 | 54.11% | 6,770 |
| Fulton | 3,471 | 72.74% | 1,067 | 22.36% | 234 | 4.90% | 2,404 | 50.38% | 4,772 |
| Garland | 26,087 | 63.93% | 12,311 | 30.17% | 2,407 | 5.90% | 13,776 | 33.76% | 40,805 |
| Grant | 5,725 | 76.90% | 1,373 | 18.44% | 347 | 4.66% | 4,352 | 58.46% | 7,445 |
| Greene | 10,720 | 73.42% | 3,071 | 21.03% | 809 | 5.55% | 7,649 | 52.39% | 14,600 |
| Hempstead | 4,401 | 62.43% | 2,377 | 33.72% | 271 | 3.85% | 2,024 | 28.71% | 7,049 |
| Hot Spring | 8,172 | 68.42% | 3,149 | 26.36% | 623 | 5.22% | 5,023 | 42.06% | 11,944 |
| Howard | 3,157 | 67.54% | 1,351 | 28.90% | 166 | 3.56% | 1,806 | 38.64% | 4,674 |
| Independence | 9,936 | 72.98% | 2,881 | 21.16% | 797 | 5.86% | 7,055 | 51.82% | 13,614 |
| Izard | 4,042 | 74.19% | 1,113 | 20.43% | 293 | 5.38% | 2,929 | 53.76% | 5,448 |
| Jackson | 3,267 | 63.36% | 1,583 | 30.70% | 306 | 5.94% | 1,684 | 32.66% | 5,156 |
| Jefferson | 9,250 | 35.72% | 15,772 | 60.91% | 872 | 3.37% | -6,522 | -25.19% | 25,894 |
| Johnson | 6,091 | 66.85% | 2,427 | 26.64% | 594 | 6.51% | 3,664 | 40.21% | 9,112 |
| Lafayette | 1,758 | 61.47% | 1,032 | 36.08% | 70 | 2.45% | 726 | 25.39% | 2,860 |
| Lawrence | 4,064 | 71.49% | 1,263 | 22.22% | 358 | 6.29% | 2,801 | 49.27% | 5,685 |
| Lee | 1,229 | 40.61% | 1,735 | 57.34% | 62 | 2.05% | -506 | -16.73% | 3,026 |
| Lincoln | 2,455 | 64.17% | 1,252 | 32.72% | 119 | 3.11% | 1,203 | 31.45% | 3,826 |
| Little River | 3,605 | 68.97% | 1,397 | 26.73% | 225 | 4.30% | 2,208 | 42.24% | 5,227 |
| Logan | 5,746 | 72.54% | 1,715 | 21.65% | 460 | 5.81% | 4,031 | 50.89% | 7,921 |
| Lonoke | 19,958 | 73.65% | 5,664 | 20.90% | 1,478 | 5.45% | 14,294 | 52.75% | 27,100 |
| Madison | 4,928 | 72.04% | 1,588 | 23.21% | 325 | 4.75% | 3,340 | 48.83% | 6,841 |
| Marion | 5,336 | 75.08% | 1,434 | 20.18% | 337 | 4.74% | 3,902 | 54.90% | 7,107 |
| Miller | 11,294 | 70.19% | 4,273 | 26.56% | 524 | 3.25% | 7,021 | 43.63% | 16,091 |
| Mississippi | 7,061 | 53.48% | 5,670 | 42.94% | 473 | 3.58% | 1,391 | 10.54% | 13,204 |
| Monroe | 1,489 | 51.63% | 1,312 | 45.49% | 83 | 2.88% | 177 | 6.14% | 2,884 |
| Montgomery | 2,643 | 74.26% | 748 | 21.02% | 168 | 4.72% | 1,895 | 53.24% | 3,559 |
| Nevada | 2,000 | 61.61% | 1,157 | 35.64% | 89 | 2.75% | 843 | 25.97% | 3,246 |
| Newton | 2,875 | 76.61% | 699 | 18.63% | 179 | 4.76% | 2,176 | 57.98% | 3,753 |
| Ouachita | 5,351 | 53.86% | 4,321 | 43.49% | 263 | 2.65% | 1,030 | 10.37% | 9,935 |
| Perry | 3,008 | 69.86% | 1,049 | 24.36% | 249 | 5.78% | 1,959 | 45.50% | 4,306 |
| Phillips | 2,446 | 35.18% | 4,310 | 61.99% | 197 | 2.83% | -1,864 | -26.81% | 6,953 |
| Pike | 3,150 | 79.13% | 685 | 17.21% | 146 | 3.66% | 2,465 | 61.92% | 3,981 |
| Poinsett | 5,502 | 71.25% | 1,880 | 24.35% | 340 | 4.40% | 3,622 | 46.90% | 7,722 |
| Polk | 6,618 | 80.40% | 1,212 | 14.72% | 401 | 4.88% | 5,406 | 65.68% | 8,231 |
| Pope | 16,256 | 72.03% | 5,000 | 22.15% | 1,313 | 5.82% | 11,256 | 49.88% | 22,569 |
| Prairie | 2,505 | 72.74% | 814 | 23.64% | 125 | 3.62% | 1,691 | 49.10% | 3,444 |
| Pulaski | 61,257 | 38.34% | 89,574 | 56.06% | 8,945 | 5.60% | -28,317 | -17.72% | 159,776 |
| Randolph | 4,509 | 70.69% | 1,425 | 22.34% | 445 | 6.97% | 3,084 | 48.35% | 6,379 |
| St. Francis | 3,195 | 43.00% | 4,031 | 54.25% | 204 | 2.75% | -836 | -11.25% | 7,430 |
| Saline | 35,863 | 68.83% | 13,256 | 25.44% | 2,981 | 5.73% | 22,607 | 43.39% | 52,100 |
| Scott | 2,731 | 77.81% | 602 | 17.15% | 177 | 5.04% | 2,129 | 60.66% | 3,510 |
| Searcy | 2,955 | 79.27% | 601 | 16.12% | 172 | 4.61% | 2,354 | 63.15% | 3,728 |
| Sebastian | 29,127 | 65.25% | 12,300 | 27.56% | 3,210 | 7.19% | 16,827 | 37.69% | 44,637 |
| Sevier | 3,282 | 71.94% | 1,075 | 23.56% | 205 | 4.50% | 2,207 | 48.38% | 4,562 |
| Sharp | 5,407 | 74.59% | 1,472 | 20.31% | 370 | 5.10% | 3,935 | 54.28% | 7,249 |
| Stone | 4,113 | 73.21% | 1,203 | 21.41% | 302 | 5.38% | 2,910 | 51.80% | 5,618 |
| Union | 10,456 | 61.89% | 5,855 | 34.66% | 583 | 3.45% | 4,601 | 27.23% | 16,894 |
| Van Buren | 5,382 | 73.33% | 1,549 | 21.11% | 408 | 5.56% | 3,833 | 52.22% | 7,339 |
| Washington | 41,476 | 50.67% | 33,366 | 40.76% | 7,019 | 8.57% | 8,110 | 9.91% | 81,861 |
| White | 21,077 | 75.28% | 5,170 | 18.46% | 1,752 | 6.26% | 15,907 | 56.82% | 27,999 |
| Woodruff | 1,347 | 52.39% | 1,118 | 43.49% | 106 | 4.12% | 229 | 8.90% | 2,571 |
| Yell | 4,608 | 71.56% | 1,480 | 22.98% | 351 | 5.46% | 3,128 | 48.58% | 6,439 |
| Totals | 684,872 | 60.57% | 380,494 | 33.65% | 65,310 | 5.78% | 304,378 | 26.92% | 1,130,676 |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won all four of the state's congressional districts.[14]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 65.0% | 30.2% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 52.4% | 41.7% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 61.9% | 30.5% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 64.2% | 31.3% | Bruce Westerman |
Turnout
[edit]The voter turnout in Arkansas was 64.65% with 1,137,772 ballots cast out of 1,759,974 registered voters.[15]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Arkansas
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
References
[edit]- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
- ^ "Arkansas Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
- ^ James Jackson (November 10, 2015). "Candidates file for Arkansas primaries - News - The Sun-Times - Heber Springs, AR - Heber Springs, AR". The Sun-Times. Archived from the original on November 16, 2015. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
- ^ "Washington County, AR : March 1, 2016 Republican Preferential Primary Sample Ballots". Co.washington.ar.us. Archived from the original on January 29, 2016. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "2016 General ELection and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Official County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State.
- ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
- ^ "AR - Election Results". Retrieved December 2, 2016.
External links
[edit]- RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
- Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
- Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Arkansas
