2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
 | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 59.4% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
 U.S. Senate election results map. Blue denotes counties/districts won by Casey. Red denotes those won by Smith. | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Pennsylvania |
|---|
 |
 Government |
The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.
The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.
Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. In so doing, Casey became the first Democratic Senator from Pennsylvania elected to a second term in 50 years.
Background
On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican Senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962. The 2012 election would also become the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election.
Pennsylvania is considered a battleground state; since the 1970 election of Governor Milton Shapp, partisan control of the governorship has alternated between Democratic and Republican. Additionally, Republicans have controlled the State Senate since 1995, while Democrats assumed control of the State House following the 2006 election, only to lose control in the 2010 election, though the Democrats have won the state in every presidential election since 1992.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator[2][3]
- Joseph Vodvarka, spring maker[4]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bob Casey, Jr. (Incumbent) | 565,488 | 80.9 | |
| Democratic | Joseph Vodvarka | 133,683 | 19.1 | |
| Total votes | 699,171 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
On ballot
- David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate[6]
- John Kensinger, pharmacist[7]
- Sam Rohrer, former state representative[8]
- Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum[3]
- Tom Smith, farmer and businessman[9]
- Steve Welch, businessman[10]
Withdrew
- Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general elections[11]
- Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activist[12]
- John Vernon, retired Army colonel[13]
Declined
- Jake Corman, state senator[14]
- Charlie Dent, U.S. representative[15]
- Jim Gerlach, U.S. representative[3][16]
- Keith Loiselle, businessman[17]
- Glen Meakem, radio host[3][16]
- Pat Meehan, U.S. representative[18]
- Tim Murphy, U.S. representative[19]
- Dominic Pileggi, State Senate Majority Leader[20]
- Mark Schweiker, former Pennsylvania governor[21]
- Bill Shuster, U.S. representative[15]
- Mike Turzai, State House Majority Leader[3]
- Kim Ward, state senator[22]
- Joe Watkins, MSNBC contributor[17]
Campaign
In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate.[23] The largest state newspaper, Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.
Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2-1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising.[24] Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years.[25] Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes).[26] Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.[27]
Sam Rohrer, a former State Representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.[28]
David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.[29]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Burns |
David Christian |
Laureen Cummings |
John Kensinger |
Sam Rohrer |
Marc Scaringi |
Tom Smith |
John Vernon |
Steve Welch |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–25, 2012 | 505 | ± 4.2% | — | 1% | — | — | 7% | 1% | 9% | — | 1% | — | 81% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 8–11, 2012 | 564 | ± 4.1% | — | 10% | — | — | 16% | 8% | 12% | — | 5% | — | 48% |
| Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV | February 2–6, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | — | 1% | — | 3% | 10% | 1% | 8% | — | 1% | — | 72% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 15% | — | 2% | — | 25% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 43% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Smith | 299,726 | 39.5 | |
| Republican | Sam Rohrer | 169,118 | 22.3 | |
| Republican | Steve Welch | 158,181 | 20.9 | |
| Republican | David Christian | 79,581 | 10.5 | |
| Republican | Marc Scaringi | 51,908 | 6.8 | |
| Total votes | 758,514 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Tom Smith (Republican), businessman
- Rayburn Smith (Libertarian)[31]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, 6ABC, October 16, 2012
- Complete video and transcript of debate, C-SPAN, October 26, 2012
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | $7,664,686 | $2,754,060 | $6,226,560 | $5,261 |
| Tom Smith (R) | $7,954,211 | $5,673,558 | $2,280,655 | $6,475,000 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[32][33] | ||||
Top contributors
| Bob Casey, Jr. | Contribution | Tom Smith | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comcast Corp | $95,175 | Rosebud Mining | $26,000 |
| Blank Rome LLP | $65,500 | Tj Smith Trucking | $15,000 |
| Reed Smith LLP | $61,800 | Penneco Oil Co | $12,500 |
| Cozen O'Connor | $44,975 | Transportation Equipment Supply Co | $11,500 |
| University of Pennsylvania | $44,450 | R&S Machine Co | $10,250 |
| Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney | $43,098 | Citizens United | $10,000 |
| K&L Gates | $42,650 | Mepco LLC | $10,000 |
| Pride Mobility Products | $40,250 | Snyder Armclar Gas | $10,000 |
| Blue Cross & Blue Shield | $39,950 | Stitt Management | $10,000 |
| National Amusements Inc. | $39,250 | Penn Waste | $10,000 |
Top industries
| Bob Casey, Jr. | Contribution | Tom Smith | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/Law Firms | $2,095,026 | Retired | $104,725 |
| Lobbyists | $407,472 | Mining | $87,800 |
| Real Estate | $389,559 | Republican/Conservative | $43,500 |
| Health Professionals | $336,023 | Oil & Gas | $40,750 |
| Financial Institutions | $335,998 | Misc Business | $35,300 |
| Retired | $329,132 | Financial Institutions | $25,500 |
| Pharmaceuticals/Health Products | $313,597 | Misc Manufacturing & Distributing | $19,650 |
| Hospitals/Nursing Homes | $296,737 | Leadership PACs | $19,000 |
| Entertainment Industry | $237,825 | Misc Energy | $18,000 |
| Insurance | $221,750 | Trucking | $15,250 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) |
Tom Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | November 2–4, 2012 | 507 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 46% | 1% | — |
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 790 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 44% | — | 3% |
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | November 1–3, 2012 | 430 | ± 5% | 48% | 42% | 2% | 9% |
| Tribune-Review/Susquehanna | October 29–31, 2012 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 23–28, 2012 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 13% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer | October 23–25, 2012 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 24, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Pharos Research | October 19–21, 2012 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| Muhlenberg College Poll | October 17–21, 2012 | 444 | ± 5% | 45% | 37% | 2% | 16% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | October 18–20, 2012 | 559 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 45% | 4% | — |
| Quinnipiac | October 12–14, 2012 | 1,519 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 12–14, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Muhlenberg | October 10–14, 2012 | 438 | ± 5% | 41% | 39% | 1% | 18% |
| Susquehanna Polling | October 11–13, 2012 | 1,376 | ± 2.6% | 46% | 48% | 1% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 9, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 5% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer | October 4–8, 2012 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 38% | — | 14% |
| Susquehanna Polling | October 4–6, 2012 | 725 | ± 3.7% | 46% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Siena Poll | October 1–5, 2012 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 35% | — | 16% |
| Muhlenberg College | September 22–26, 2012 | 427 | ± 5% | 44% | 36% | 7% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll | September 18–24, 2012 | 1,180 | ± 3% | 49% | 43% | — | — |
| Franklin & Marshall | September 18–23, 2012 | 392 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 38% | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 19, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 42% | 2% | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College | September 10–16, 2012 | 640 | ± 4% | 45% | 33% | 5% | 18% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer | August 21–23, 2012 | 601 | ± 4% | 53% | 34% | — | 13% |
| MCall/Muhlenburg Poll | August 20–22, 2012 | 422 | ± 5% | 49% | 30% | — | 18% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 7–12, 2012 | 681 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 23% | 2% | 39% |
| Quinnipiac | July 24–30, 2012 | 1,168 | ± 2.9% | 55% | 37% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 21–23, 2012 | 758 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 36% | — | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 18, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 38% | — | 9% |
| We Ask America | July 9–10, 2012 | 1,227 | ± 2.8% | 53% | 39% | — | 8% |
| Quinnipiac | June 19–25, 2012 | 1,252 | ± 2.8% | 49% | 32% | 1% | 17% |
| Quinnipiac | June 5–10, 2012 | 997 | ± 3.1% | 51% | 32% | 1% | 14% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | May 29–June 4, 2012 | 412 | ± 4.8% | 42% | 21% | 2% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 21, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 41% | 3% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 17–20, 2012 | 671 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 33% | — | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 8–11, 2012 | 689 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 31% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 32% | — | 20% |
|
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bob Casey, Jr. (Incumbent) | 3,021,364 | 53.7% | −4.9% | |
| Republican | Tom Smith | 2,509,114 | 44.6% | +3.3% | |
| Libertarian | Rayburn Smith | 96,926 | 1.7% | +1.7% | |
| Majority | 512,250 | 9.1% | − | ||
| Turnout | 5,627,404 | ||||
| Democratic hold | Swing | -4.9% | |||
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2012
References
- ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
- ^ Itkowitz, Colby (November 21, 2010). "Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election". The Morning Call. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
- ^ a b c d e Malloy, Daniel (November 26, 2010). "Murrysville native planning for 2010 run against Casey". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved November 26, 2010.
- ^ Itkowitz, Colby (February 15, 2012). "Petitions filed for Pa. primary". The Allentown Morning Call. Retrieved February 22, 2012.
- ^ a b "2012 General Primary: United States Senator". PA Department of State. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
- ^ "2012: David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race". Pike County Republican Committee. Retrieved September 24, 2011.
- ^ Reabuck, Sandra K. (September 28, 2011). "New Paris pharmacist seeks GOP nomination". The Tribune-Democrat. Retrieved September 30, 2011.
- ^ Levy, Marc (November 4, 2011). "Sam Rohrer to run for Casey's Senate seat". MSNBC. Retrieved November 6, 2011.
- ^ Guerriero, John (September 29, 2011). "Armstrong County Republican announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Erie". Erie Times-News. Retrieved September 30, 2011.
- ^ Gibson, Keegan (September 13, 2011). "Welch to Enter Senate Race". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 14, 2011.
- ^ "Burns Exits Senate Race". PoliticsPA. February 2, 2012. Retrieved February 2, 2011.
- ^ Gibson, Keegan (January 14, 2012). "Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns". Politics PA. Retrieved January 16, 2012.
- ^ Jerry, Tara (January 16, 2012). "Vernon Endorses Burns for Senate". Politics PA. Retrieved January 17, 2012.
- ^ http://www.statecollege.com/news/local-news/corman-not-running-for-us-senate-in-2012-he-says-797097/
- ^ a b Itkowitz, Colby (December 10, 2010). "Dent versus Casey?". The Morning Call. Retrieved December 10, 2010.
- ^ a b Jacobs, Jeremy P. (November 16, 2010). "GOP Looking For A Casey Challenger". National Journal. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
- ^ a b "Is Casey closer to a serious challenger?". August 4, 2011. Retrieved August 8, 2011.
- ^ http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e72bc962d92c253852817.txt?viewmode=fullstory
- ^ Hundt, Brad (August 31, 2011). "U.S. Rep. Murphy says he won't run for Senate next year". Observer-Reporter. Retrieved September 2, 2011.
- ^ Sullivan, Sean (December 5, 2011). "Pileggi Won't Challenge Casey in Pa". National Journal. Retrieved December 5, 2011.
- ^ "Schweiker: Senate Run "Not in the Cards"". PoliticsPA. January 14, 2011. Retrieved January 15, 2011.
- ^ "EXCLUSIVE: State Senator Kim Ward Emerges as Potential Challenger to Bob Casey". PoliticsPA. December 8, 2010. Retrieved December 9, 2010.
- ^ Levy, Mark (January 29, 2012). "Pa. GOP endorses Welch to challenge Sen. Casey". Associated Press. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ "Smith outspends, outraises Welch in US Senate race". Associated Press. April 13, 2012. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ Gibson, Keegan (April 16, 2012). "Where's Tom Smith?". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ Gibson, Keegan (March 26, 2012). "Smith Tax Votes Play in Senate Campaign". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ Gibson, Keegan (August 17, 2011). "Sen. Candidate Smith a Heavyweight GOP Donor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ Gibson, Keegan (March 28, 2012). "Bachmann Endorses Rohrer". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ "Primary 2012: Nominate Christian". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
- ^ Brennan, Kevin (April 24, 2012). "Smith Wins Pennsylvania Senate Primary". National Journal. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
- ^ "11/6/2012 2012 GENERAL ELECTION GENERAL CANDIDATE LIST" (PDF). Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved August 27, 2012.
- ^ Campaign Finances
- ^ Campaign Finances
- ^ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php%7CCenter for Responsive Politics
- ^ by industry, opensecrets.org
- ^ "2012 General Election - United States Senator". Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
External links
- Pennsylvania Department of State
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
- Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
- Issue positions at On the Issues
- Official campaign websites