User:אלכסנדר סעודה/sandbox

אלכסנדר סעודה in English: Alexander Sauda

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Several countries increased their pledges in the summit. Others deliver vague promises, statements and pledges:

Main commitments and statements made in the summit

Country	Commitments
United States	Reduction in emissions by 50% - 52% by the year 2030 relative to the level of 2005.
Brazil	Ending deforestation by the year 2030. Achieving carbon neutrality by the year 2050.
Japan	Reduce emissions by 46% by the year 2030 comparative to the level of 2013, instead of 26% before. Achieve net - zero emissions by the year 2050.
Canada	Reduce emissions by 40% - 45% by the year 2030 relative to the level of 2005 instead of 30% before.
India	Reaffirmed its previouse target of installing 450 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030. With the United States created a "India-U.S. Climate and Clean Energy Agenda Partnership for 2030"..
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Cities have big ecological footprint. without any action they supposed to emit 65 GtCO2-eq by the year 2050. With full scale mitigation action

In the beginning of theyear 2022 a government supported research said China wil peack emissions in the year 2027 at

In page 134 there is a table showing synergies and trade offs between different mitigation measures and Sustainable Development Goals.

Impact on environment and climate

A group of experts said the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act alone will make only a small reduction in emissions, but as they say: "We lack modeling capabilities to reflect the net effect of surface transportation investments in highways (which tend to increase on-road vehicle and freight miles traveled) and rail and public transit (which tend to reduce on-road vehicle and freight miles traveled). These significant programs are therefore not modeled in this analysis, an important limitation of our assessment of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act". The bill includes the largest federal investment in public transit in history. The bill includes spending of 105 billion dollars in public transport. It also give 110 billion on fixing roads and bridges what includes measures for climate change mitigation - access for cyclists and pedestrians.

The bill includes spending of 21 billion for environmental projects, 50 billion for water storage, 15 billion for electric vehicles. 73 billion dollars will be spent on power infrastructure what includes its adjustment to renewable energy. The plan also includes 1 billion for better connection of neighborhoods separated by transport infrastructure. According to Biden's administration the plan should add 2 million jobs per year.

Some environmental organization even talked about a "green wave" in the elections. The green wave in a memo issued after the election pointed that environmental candidates mostly won and those considered as less environmental loose. Even betwen Republicans those who won do not buuld their campaigns on

Adding to the article the findings of Gaia

I propose to add to the page in the sections about Economic dimension and Overcoming barriers about economic growth about the reasearch of Gaia.

What I want to write:

Some argue that decline in GDP is inevitable as if people will not stop overconsumption willingly Earth resources will expire in the next decade due to increased consumption and this will cause collapse. But if humanity will willingly reduce over consumption the collapse will be prevented.

Short explanation:

https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-crisis-civilization-collapse-mit-2653980183.html

"Ultimately, avoiding decline means turning society towards “another goal than growth,” Herrington concluded in the study."

Original reasearch:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jiec.13084

"The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity's goal in the twenty-first century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines in these variables, but only one—where declines are caused by pollution—depicts a collapse."

Some detailes already exist in the page Limits to growth:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth#Legacy

I think we should add in the paragraph "Epidemiology, Backgrownd" after the sentence "The scientific consensus is that the virus is most likely of a zoonotic origin, from bats or another closely-related mammal" The next sentence:

"According to the IPCC Climate Change, Deforestation and Wildlife trade significantly increased the likelyhood for the emergences of such diseases. 2 study found climate change increased the likelyhood of this pandemic in multiple ways"

And in the lead section after the sentence "The novel virus was first identified in an outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019." add this sentence:

"The virus probably has a zoonotic origin. Climate change probably significantly increased the likelyhood for the emergence of the pandemic."

Sources:

Page 233-235 from the chapter 2 of the latest IPCC report:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter02.pdf

Pages 1067-1070 in chapter 7 of the latest IPCC report:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter07.pdf

This page on the site of the European Comission (referring to the research of Robert Beyer):

https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/430229-climate-change-the-culprit-in-the-covid-19-pandemic

The pannel published a short "Headline Statements" document, summarizing its findings in 3-4 pages. Among other it contains the next points:

• Humans, mainly through emissions of greenhouse gases, certainly caused global warming. Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, coming from unsustainable energy use, land use, lifestyles, consumption and production, with unequal contributions between regions, countries, and individuals.

• Global surface temperature rised by 1.1°C from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020.

• As a result of human-caused climate change widespread and rapid changes all over the world have occurred. This has led to widespread negative impacts on nature and people. Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected.

• Adaptation has progressed across all sectors and regions. Despite it, adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation. Hard and soft limits to adaptation have been reached in some ecosystems and regions. Maladaptation is happening in some sectors and regions. Current financing is insufficient for adaptation especially in low income countries.

• Mitigation has expanded, but global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2°C. There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions.

Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered scenarios and modelled pathways. Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards. Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years

For any given future warming level, many climate-related risks are higher than assessed in AR5, and projected long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed (high confidence). Risks and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages from climate change escalate with every increment of global warming (very high confidence). Climatic and non-climatic risks will increasingly interact, creating compound and cascading risks that are more complex and difficult to manage

Likelihood and Risks of Unavoidable, Irreversible or Abrupt Changes B.3 Some future changes are unavoidable and/or irreversible but can be limited by deep, rapid and sustained global greenhouse gas emissions reduction. The likelihood of abrupt and/or irreversible changes increases with higher global warming levels. Similarly, the probability of low-likelihood outcomes associated with potentially very large adverse impacts increases with higher global warming levels. (high confidence)

Adaptation options that are feasible and effective today will become constrained and less effective with increasing global warming. With increasing global warming, losses and damages will increase and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits. Maladaptation can be avoided by flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive, long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions, with co-benefits to many sectors and systems.

Limiting human-caused global warming requires net zero CO2 emissions. Cumulative carbon emissions until the time of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions and the level of greenhouse gas emission reductions this decade largely determine whether warming can be limited to 1.5°C or 2°C (high confidence). Projected CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement would exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (50%)

All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade. Global net zero CO2 emissions are reached for these pathway categories, in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.

If warming exceeds a specified level such as 1.5°C, it could gradually be reduced again by achieving and sustaining net negative global CO2 emissions. This would require additional deployment of carbon dioxide removal, compared to pathways without overshoot, leading to greater feasibility and sustainability concerns. Overshoot entails adverse impacts, some irreversible, and additional risks for human and natural systems, all growing with the magnitude and duration of overshoot.

Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health . There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all . Climate resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all, and is enabled by increased international cooperation including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and coordinated policies (high confidence). The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years

Deep, rapid and sustained mitigation and accelerated implementation of adaptation actions in this decade would reduce projected losses and damages for humans and ecosystems, and deliver many co-benefits, especially for air quality and health (high confidence). Delayed mitigation and adaptation action would lock-in high-emissions infrastructure, raise risks of stranded assets and cost-escalation, reduce feasibility, and increase losses and damages (high confidence). Near-term actions involve high up-front investments and potentially disruptive changes that can be lessened by a range of enabling policies

Rapid and far-reaching transitions across all sectors and systems are necessary to achieve deep and sustained emissions reductions and secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. These system transitions involve a significant upscaling of a wide portfolio of mitigation and adaptation options. Feasible, effective, and low-cost options for mitigation and adaptation are already available, with differences across systems and regions.

Accelerated and equitable action in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts is critical to sustainable development. Mitigation and adaptation actions have more synergies than trade-offs with Sustainable Development Goals. Synergies and trade-offs depend on context and scale of implementation.

Prioritising equity, climate justice, social justice, inclusion and just transition processes can enable adaptation and ambitious mitigation actions and climate resilient development. Adaptation outcomes are enhanced by increased support to regions and people with the highest vulnerability to climatic hazards. Integrating climate adaptation into social protection programs improves resilience. Many options are available for reducing emission-intensive consumption, including through behavioural and lifestyle changes, with co-benefits for societal well-being.

Effective climate action is enabled by political commitment, well-aligned multilevel governance, institutional frameworks, laws, policies and strategies and enhanced access to finance and technology. Clear goals, coordination across multiple policy domains, and inclusive governance processes facilitate effective climate action. Regulatory and economic instruments can support deep emissions reductions and climate resilience if scaled up and applied widely. Climate resilient development benefits from drawing on diverse knowledge.

Finance, technology and international cooperation are critical enablers for accelerated climate action. If climate goals are to be achieved, both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase many-fold. There is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gaps but there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action. Enhancing technology innovation systems is key to accelerate the widespread adoption of technologies and practices. Enhancing international cooperation is possible through multiple channels.

In June, Lula presented a road map for achieving zero deforestation by the year 2030. It is a part of a bigger plan: "the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon". This plan was largely responsable for the 83% decrease in the Amazon deforestation rate in the years 2004 - 2012 but it was suspended by Jair Bolsonaro government. The plan includes different measures for creating a sustainable economy in the Amazon region, like rural credits to those who will pass to sustainable agriculture and more. Lula also pledged to return the climate targets of the country in the Paris agreement to the level they were before Bolsonaro government: "reduce carbon emission by 37% by 2025 and 43% by 2030".

In September 2023 the first global stocktake report (technical dialog) was published. According to the report for reach carbon neutrality, a phase out of unabated fossil fuels is needed (before it the United Nations avoided to say it). Among the main findings of the report:

• The Paris agreement and following climate action significantly helped in reducing emissions. In 2011 the projected warming by 2100 was 3.7–4.8 °C. After COP 27 it was 2.4–2.6 °C and in the best case if all pledge accomplished 1.7–2.1 °C.

• As of September 2023 the world is not on track to reach the targets of the Paris agreement. For having a more than 50% chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C and more than 67% chance of limiting it to 2°C, global emissions must peak by the year of 2025.

• Trillions of dollars are needed for limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. All financial flows need to change.

• More effective international cooperation and collaboration ate crucial for reaching the targets of the Paris agreement.

In the first year of implementation, the act has a significant impact on environment. The expectations for GHG emissions reduction by 2030 moved from 17% - 30% to 29% - 42%. More than 170,000 green jobs was created. The sales of heat pumps exceeded the sales of gas boilers in the first time in history. 15% of households now use a heat pump as primary source of heating. The United States Environmental Protection Agency used dozens of millions to improve air quality and hundreds of millions for environmental justice and local climate planes. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration spent hundreds of millions for protecting coastal communities and ecosystems from the impact of climate change. A 1 billion spending is allocated to equitable accessurban trees

Impact on Lithosphere

The impact of climate change on earthquakes, volcanic eruptions is still not understood well, but there are studies presenting evidence of some link. The main ways in wich climate change can impact those phenomena are the follows:

• Drought can significantly change the pressure on the Earth's crust by drastically changing the amount of water and conseqently its weight, on the land surface and inside soil (for example Sierra Nevada rose by around 1 inch due to drought during the years 2011-2017). This can increase the likelyhood of earthquakes.

• Glacier retreat can increase volcanic eruptions and seismic activity because the glaciers has significant weight and when they are dissapearing there is less load on the earth crust. 7000-11000 years ago eartquakes linked with deglasciation in Scandinavia surpassed the magnitude of 8.0.

• Increased monsoon intensity in southern Asia can increase seismic activity in the Himalayas again because of more intense change in the pressure on the earth crust due to the weight of the water.

• Sudden and strong changes in atmospheric pressure due to Typhoon can incrase seismic activity. This was shown by an analusys of the earthquakesin

In October severe drought exacerbated the situation in the Amazon, one of the worst on record. Climate change, El Nino, deforestation increase the likelihood for drought condition in the Amazon. Despite it, in the first 10 months of 2023 deforestation decreased by around 50%.

In 2023 Greenpeace issued a video in which it criticize the view of EVs as silver bullet to solve climate change, saying they need minerals extraction For example, the rise in SUV sails by Hyundai almost eliminate the climate benefits of passing to EV in this company. This is because even electric SUV have high carbon fotprint as they consume much raw materials and energy during construction.

The Georgetown climate center tried to estimate how the bill can impact the emissions from transportation. It created 2 scenarios: high emissions - when the money will go to emissions intensive projects like highway expansion and low emissions when the money will go to more environmental friendly projects. His finding were the follows:

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Ocean justice

Main article: Blue justice

The head of "Ocean Collectiv" and "Urban Ocean Lab", marine biologist, Ayana Elizabeth Johnson describes ocean justice as: "where ocean conservation and issues of social equity meet: Who suffers most from flooding and pollution, and who benefits from conservation measures? As sea levels rise and storms intensify, such questions will only grow more urgent, and fairness must be a central consideration as societies figure out how to answer them"

In December 2023 Biden's administration unveiled a whole strategy to improve ocean justice. The main targets of this strategy:

• Repair past injustice when people depending on the ocean and contributing very little to environmental destruction, suffered from the impacts of this destruction on the oceans. Those include Indigenous peoples, African Americans, Hispanic and Latino Americans.

• Use the knowledge of indigenouse people and marine communities in general for restore ocean justice and help ocean conservation.

Environmental groups approved the decision. According to Beth Lowell the vice president of Oceana (non-profit group): "Offshore drilling, fisheries management and reducing plastic pollution are just a few of the areas where these voices are needed".

In the official document summarizing the new strategy the administration gave several examples of past implementation of those principles. One of them is Mai Ka Po Mai a strategy for the managment of a huge marine territory near the Hawaiian Islands concieved after consultations with native communitiies.

The participants of the conference gave 85 billions dollars to different climate issues and made 10 pledges:

COALITION FOR HIGH AMBITION MULTILEVEL PARTNERSHIPS (CHAMP) FOR CLIMATE ACTION PLEDGE was signed by 71 countries including United States, Brazil, France, Germany. It includes commitments to promote international and subnational climate action, made new more ambitious Nationally determined contributions by 2025, increase efforts for climate change adaptation, preserving biodiversity for limit warming to 1.5 degrees.

UAE LEADERS’ DECLARATION ON A GLOBAL CLIMATE FINANCE FRAMEWORK was signed by 13 countries including United States, India, United Kingdom, Germany. Includes targets of mobilizing 100 bilion dollars by 2025 and 5-7 trilions dollars by 2030 to climate action, make a debt reform, put in place emissions pricing mechanism, mobilize concession and private capital.

COP28 UAE DECLARATION ON CLIMATE AND HEALTH was endorsed by 143 countries including the European Union, China, United States. Includes commitments to reduce negative health impacts from climate change in collaboration with Indigenous peoples, womens, local communities and health workers, prevent zoonotic spillover.

COP28 DECLARATION ON CLIMATE, RELIEF, RECOVERY AND PEACE was adopted by 82 countries, including Canada, China, Ukraine, United States, Rwanda. The declaration includes commitments to promote peace, environmental policies that support peace, prevent climate change from increasing conflict, help and empower people affected by environmental degradation and conflict.

GLOBAL RENEWABLES AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY PLEDGE was signed by 130 countries, including Bhutan, Brazil, European Union, Angola, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Chad. The countries pledge to refer to energy efficiency as "first fuel" and double the rate of energy efficiency increase "from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030". They also pledged to triple the capacity of renewable enegy by 2030, ensuring just transition, increase renewable energy use and energy efficiency in a "environmentally responsible manner".

COP28 UAE DECLARATION ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE, RESILIENT FOOD SYSTEMS, AND CLIMATE ACTION was adopted by 159 countries including Australia, Belarus, Brazil, China, United States. It includes making the global food system more climate resilient, promoting food security by helping vulnerable people, sustainable water managment, include food systems into climate action strategies,

Environmental policy

Brussels is ranked sixth in the index of cities which are becoming greener in the highest speed as for the year 2022, even though in the past it had a reputation of a "traffic-choked city of high rises and concrete". The authorities released a plan composed of 7 steps how to make the city even more sustainable. Those include introducing "a use-based, circular and low-carbon economy" and making the city "proactive". The city should become a "10 minute city" meaning everything what the dwellers need, should be at a distance of a 10 minutes walk from the house. Green spaces should be expanded. The plan includes participation of the population in decisions making and high life level for all.

what will also permit stopping giving free allowances to some carbon intensive sectors in the EU. All this should hasten decarbonization.

After the political (provisional) agreement between the Council and the European Parliament reached in December 2022, the CBAM is expected to enter into force on October 1, 2023 and pass through several phases;

From October 2023 to the end of 2025 transitional phase: importers of products in six carbon intensive sectors highly exposed to international trade: aluminium, cement, electricity, fertilisers, hydrogen and iron and steel will need to report their emissions. During the transitional phase, the regulators will be checking if other products can be added to the list like for example some downstream products.

From the beginning of 2026 importers of products included in these 6 sectors will begin to pay a border carbon tax for their products based on the price of allowances in the European Union Emissions Trading System

By 2030 all sectors covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System will be covered by CBAM.

By 2034 full phase out of free allowances in the relevant sectors inside the European Union as the fully implemented CBAM prevent the possibility of no level playing field for european companies in comparison to importers.

Environmental policy

The country is a leading oil and gas producer. Its energy consumption per capita is around 370Gigajoule. In latest yeat itmade efforts to make itself more sustainable. Those include:

• Setting a target to reduce GHG emissions by 31% in comparison to business scenario by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

• Launching a programm to make the 3 most emissions-intensive sectors, 40% more energy efficient.

When it become clear that the inflation reduction act is becoming more effective but also more costly, due to larger than expected use of its credits, the administration of Joe Biden carried out a new analisys, how much unpaid taxes the IRS can collect for cover the costs. According to this analisys, full reorganization of IRS will result in 851 billion dollars of revenue in 2024-2034, without violating the rule of not adressing those who have an income less than 400,000.

Alaska

In Februrary 2024, 1 million dollars were delivered to Alaska communities for support fisheries. The aim is to strengten resilience, improve cooperation with indigenouse tribes and use their knowledge.

China

China experienced significant growth in SF6 emisssions due torapid increase in electricity consumption partly due to expansion in renewable energy use. There have been several proposal from the government to reduce those emissions but currently

In 2024 a group of experts including Michael E. Mann and Naomi Oreskes published "An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future". They put the blame for the ecological crisis on "imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population" and proposed a paradigm shift that replaces it with a socio-economic model prioritizing sustainability, resilience, justice, kinship with nature, communal well-being. They described many ways in which the transition can be achieved.

In the Earth Day 2024, Biden officially announced the launch of the corps website in which people can find the available positions. The declaration was made in Prince William Forest Park. 2,000 jobs were available when the declaration was made.

China makes considerable efforts to expand and improve its public transportation net, what creates health benefits and have significant importance for emission reduction.

May 2024 analysis

In May 2024, a report has been published by a group of governmental and not governmental environmentales bodies, summarizing the main achievements of the European Union in the environmental domain from 2019, with an emphasis on the green new deal. The report says that without this set of policies, the environmental situation was worse but the world is still on track to 2.9 degrees warming.