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White demographic decline

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White demographic decline has been recorded in a number of countries and smaller jurisdictions. This decline is usually defined by a decreasing percentage share of the white populace within a city, state, subregion, or nation. It has often coincided with an actual increase of the white population in absolute terms.

The phenomenon has been observed both in countries which specifically record the number of resident white people at national censuses, such as the United States and United Kingdom; as well as within jurisdictions where racial data is not explicitly collected by government, including New Zealand and South Africa.

Scholars have attempted to address subfactors and anticipated results of white demographic decline in relevant societies. The term majority minority has been used to designate an area where a decline, of what are nationally-defined as whites, has resulted in a former majority becoming a minority. Examples of this include Texas, USA and Brazil.[1][2] Other notable concepts include demographer Eric Kaufmann's theory of whiteshift, which predicts transforming classifications of whiteness as mixed-race majorities emerge, and social psychologist Jennifer Richeson's research into racial shift conditions, which outline how white people's hostility to other racial groups increases in proportion to their awareness of a drop in white population share.

National demography in relation to white people has also been shown by extremism and terrorism experts to be subject to exploitation by both radical and political right-wing groups, including adherence to conspiracy theories.[3][4] This has also manifested as anti-abortion,[5][6] and anti-immigrant sentiment despite academic evidence that immigration is significantly contributing to the maintenance of economies, civic institutions, and population-levels of places affected by white demographic decline.[7]

Background

Demography in national censuses

Various national demographic analyses of white populations have measured a demographic decline of white populations, as defined by their local nation-based censuses.[8] Research conducted at the University of Minnesota has observed the phenomenon of a decrease in white population share within jurisdictions in Europe, North America and Oceania:[9]

According to the most recent U.S. census, the non-Hispanic White population is shrinking (US Census Bureau, 2018). This trend has been observed in other White-majority countries including Canada (Statistics Canada, 2017), the UK (Coleman, 2016), and New Zealand (Stats New Zealand, 2004).

Regarding white populations internationally, and particularly in the Western world, demographer Eric Kaufmann has suggested that "In an era of unprecedented white demographic decline it is absolutely vital for it to have a democratic outlet."[10][11] While sociologist Richard Alba believes this decline is exaggerated by the racial classification system used in the United States Census,[12] regarding the 2020 census, demographer William H. Frey has written:[13]

The Census Bureau was not projecting white population losses to occur until after 2024. This makes any national population growth even more reliant on other race and ethnic groups. The white demographic decline is largely attributable to its older age structure when compared to other race and ethnic groups. This leads to fewer births and more deaths relative to its population size.

Colonial eras

Although not based on modern racial information from census data, historian Trevor Burnard has studied the drop in the percentage of whites in the population of the colony of Jamaica between 1655 and 1780. Burnard has written how "Contemporaries, however, refused to accept the facts of white demographic decline, in part because to do so would have been to deny the possibility that Jamaica would become Anglicized rather than Africanized."[14]

Majority minority

Main article: Majority minority

As well as referencing ethno-cultural, linguistic, and religious demography, the term 'majority minority' has consistently been used in racial contexts in media and academia, and specifically to identify the demographic decline of white populations. In 2010, it was reported by the BBC how "America's two largest states - California and Texas - became "majority-minority" states (with an overall minority population outnumbering the white majority)" between 1998 and 2004.[1]

Demographers Rogelio Sáenz and Dudley L. Poston Jr. have studied existing states which have gained white minorities in the 21st century, and how, from 2017 onwards, an ongoing falling white population-share predicts further US states to follow this trend: "nonwhites account for more than half of the populations of Hawaii, the District of Columbia, California, New Mexico, Texas and Nevada. In the next 10 to 15 years, these half-dozen 'majority-minority' states will likely be joined by as many as eight other states where whites now make up less than 60 percent of the population." From their research, Sáenz and Poston Jr expect the United States to have progressed to overall white minority demography by 2044.[15] Regarding various projected majority minority scenarios across the Western world, in a 2018 article for the London School of Economics, academics Eric Kaufmann and Matthew Goodwin wrote:[16]

The ethnic make-up of many western countries is changing, and in countries previously seen as having 'white' majorities that past predominance is declining. In the United States, Canada and New Zealand, the 'majority-minority' point will arrive around 2050, while in western Europe it is projected to occur towards the end of the century. Some commentators have asked if this change may lead to a growing reaction or 'white backlash'. All else being equal, we suggest that the answer may be yes.

An example from the developing world includes Brazil which, due to a long-term demographic decline of white Brazilians, has been designated as a majority-minority country in relation to the South American nation's racial classification of whiteness.[2]

Racial shift condition

In their widely cited research, professors Jennifer Richeson and Maureen Craig produced a 2014 study on white racial shift conditions.[17] White people who were informed of their diminishing demographic share of the population displayed more racial hostility to perceived external racial groups.[18] Pacific Standard described the research as how "the coming racial shift evokes higher levels of both explicit and implicit racism on the part of white Americans".[19] In analysis of the study, sociologist Mary C. Waters concurred that the portrayal in media of falling white demography was linked with subsequent discrimination against non-whites.[20]

Whiteshift

Main article: Whiteshift

Demographer Eric Kaufmann's theory of whiteshift predicts that as white demographic decline gradually results in white majorities becoming minorities (sometimes called a majority minority scenario) that a broader and more inclusive classification of white people will occur.[21][22] A professor of politics at Birkbeck College, he suggests that, given the appropriate societal conditions, both conservatives and cosmopolitans may be able to observe whiteshift as a positive factor.[23] In this regard, political analyst Michael Barone believes there may be "cautious optimism" that the social phenomenon can progress in a politically stable form.[24]

Analysing Kaufmann's thesis, historian Michael Burleigh has used examples of whiteshift such as Western politicians Iain Duncan Smith, Geert Wilders and Ted Cruz, who have some degree of what might be considered non-white or ethnic minority ancestry in their respective countries.[25] Demographer Dowell Myers has also referenced Cruz and Megan Markle as examples, claiming that "whites are indeed in numerical decline" in the United States, when judged upon a criterion of exclusively European ancestry.[26]

Extremist exploitation of demography

Anti-abortion movement

In Katha Pollitt's 2015 book Pro, the essayist links anxiety with the demographic trend of whites and correlating support for the anti-abortion movement.[5] Hampshire College professor Marlene Fried's research suggests Pollitt exposed the "underlying agenda of the antiabortion movement", recognizing that it was associated with white demographic decline and its subsequent effects on sections of the populace.[6]

Anti-immigration politics

University of Louisville's anthropology professor Steven Gardiner has proposed how:[27]

The decline in white fertility, however, is only a small part of the story. The narrative of white demographic decline is being written, primarily, in the language of immigration. It is only since Congress passed the Immigration and Naturalization Act Amendments of 1965 that American racial and ethnic demographics have taken the turn sketched above (Office of Immigration Statistics 2004, 5). Passed during the Johnson Administration, during the height of the Civil Rights era, the 1965 Act repealed the most blatantly racist aspects of the Immigration Act of 1924. It abolished the national origins quotas which had, quite intentionally, limited non-white and non-European immigration to the United States.

Based on the effect of immigration on white demography, academic Jamie Winders has written how anti-immigrant sentiment is "grounded more in rhetoric than logic and often operates outside the boundaries of what actual research shows." Winders, a professor of geography at Syracuse University, notes that, for example: "In rural communities in the South, immigration often keeps smaller towns afloat, maintaining local schools, populations, and economies in the face of white demographic decline."[7] In 2020, research from University of Guadalajara's Alejandro Canales confirmed similar findings in the southern US. Canales, an expert on migration and population, wrote:[28]

The current case of California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada are a clear indication of what we are affirming. In all of these states the traditional demographic supremacy of non-Hispanic white people practically has been diluted by the influence of Mexican and Latin-American immigration.

Conspiracy theories

Scholars have studied how the demographic decline of white people, as well as its portrayal within different types of media, have contributed towards adherence to racist and disproven conspiracy theories. Harvard University fellow José Pedro Zúquete has observed that:[3]

For many years in the American extreme right subculture a putative Jewish conspiracy - reified by the notion of ZOG or Zionist Occupation Government - was often invoked to explain the demographic decline of whites in America.

In 2019, scholar Monica Toft expanded on the emergence of nativist politics and conspiracy theory advocacy in relation to the demographic phenomenon, stating that "The 'why now' of white nativism is due to decades of demographic decline for white Americans combined with a serious decline in public education standards that leads to unwarranted nostalgia and openness to conspiracy theories."[4]

Terrorism

The Combating Terrorism Center, which is an academic instution within the United States Military Academy, has published research which recognizes anxiety regarding white demographic decline as an ongoing contributing motivation to terrorism in the Western world. An example of this was observed in the Christchurch mosque attacks in New Zealand.[29] Mark Durie argues that the Christchurch terrorist intended to frame the demographic decline of white people as a "crisis" which would "incite conflict so that whites will be compelled to awaken, radicalise and grow strong." Durie, a linguistics and theology scholar, wrote: "We need to understand this ideology, not to give it a platform, but to learn and to equip ourselves to stand against such hatred."[30] In August 2019, a man arrested for threatening to attack people at a Jewish community center in Ohio had been found to have appeared in a documentary speaking about white demographic decline in the United States and Europe.[31]

Regions

Africa

South Africa

Scholars Hermann Giliomee and Lawrence Schlemmer have credited, among other factors, international pressure on the apartheid government and "a white demographic decline" for facilitating the process of negotiations to end apartheid in South Africa.[32]

Europe

Dr Adela Fofiu of Babeș-Bolyai University has noted how right-wing organizations and outlets in Romania politicize white demographic decline, attempting to associate it with concepts such as the "Islamization of Europe" or "Gypsifcation" of the country, the latter of which refers to the Romani people in Romania.[33] In 2018 analysis, the Southern Poverty Law Center explored how right-wing extremism attempts to utilize the demographic decline of white people in Austria for political gain.[34]

United Kingdom

In 2013, Demos published research analyzing the 2011 United Kingdom census. The UK-based think tank detailed how "departing white British are replaced by immigration or by the natural growth of the minority population. Over time, the end result of this process is a spiral of white British demographic decline."[35] In 2020, Nick Timothy, a former Downing Street Chief of Staff, addressed societal consequences of the ongoing demographic decline of white people in the United Kingdom:[36]

This is a difficult issue to understand and address, but the anxiety is real. White people are as attached to their ethnic and cultural identity as any other group and, faced with the reality of rapid demographic decline, many feel a sense of loss.

Academic David Coleman has produced research which demonstrates that the cities of Leicester and Birmingham will join London in their majority minority status during the 2020s, with regards to the demographic decline of white people in Britain.[37] Coleman, a University of Oxford demography professor since 1980, estimates that by 2056, the trend of a declining share of the white populace will result in the United Kingdom having an overall white minority.[38]

North America

Canada

In a 2018, scholars Eric Kaufmann and Matthew Goodwin wrote that the demographic process would result in white Canadians being in the minority by around 2050.[16] Writing in 2019, journalist Margaret Wente has suggested that "nations upended by right-wing populism all have one thing in common. They are all facing white demographic decline. And that is the breeding ground for populist revolts." Wente argues that with significant projected decline of the white share of the population in Canada, the country will have to address reactionary populist politics.[39]

United States

In 1998 research, Fordham University professor Tanya K. Hernandez outlined the potential for multiracial Americans to have their representative US census category "co-opted by the larger society as a mechanism for constructing a buffer class to maintain White privilege, in the midst of a growing concern with the demographic decline of White U.S. residents."[40] Samuel P. Huntington's 2004 book Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity addressed the emerging population change in the United States. In an analysis on Huntington's treatise, political demographer Eric Kaufmann wrote:[41]

Finally, Huntington considers the possibility of a white nationalist response to the changes taking place. He says that white nativism is a “plausible” response to white demographic decline, the cosmopolitan defection of the white elite and the fading power of the Anglo-Protestant core.

By 2010, the Southern Poverty Law Center's 1,000 organizations listed within their "hate" and "nativist" archives predominantly involved politics referencing white demography. Arizona State University anthropologist Luis Plascencia wrote that "a common thread in many of these groups is the concern with the demographic decline of "white" individuals."[42] In 2009, Stanford University professor, Dr Eamonn Callan observed that:[43]

The slow but inexorable demographic decline of white Americans to the status of one minority among others has begun to register in popular consciousness, making it harder for anyone to suppose that American identity could still be white identity.

In the mid-2010s, white people's demographic decline became increasing associated with politics in relation to the 2016 presidential election.[44][45] Donald Trump's policy positions and rhetoric were seen by some scholars as giving an outlet to anxiety based upon this changing white demography.[46] Journalist Christopher Caldwell argued that perceived cultural celebration of the process had contributed to the political energies supporting candidate Trump. Caldwell wrote that "At the same time, white demographic decline has been accompanied in many quarters with official exultation. The promise is not to enrich white America with new ethnicities but to replace it."[47] Research has predicted a rise in rhetoric regarding issues such as protectionism among white Americans, and particularly white evangelicals, in proportion with the ongoing percentage-share reduction of whites.[48] This demographic decline has also been utilized by extremist commentators, such as explicit supporters of the "alt-right" or white supremacist movements.[48][49]

In this regard, research in historian Mark Sedgwick's Key Thinkers of the Radical Right indicated that elements of the extremist right-wing believed that Trump's proposed policies, such as the Trump travel ban or the wall, would "slow white demographic decline".[50] Similarly, Aurora University professor Faith Agostinone-Wilson's On the Question of Truth in the Era of Trump describes these types of political aspirations as "an Americanized version of salvation, where White demographic decline is halted and the country is purged of the Other".[51] Anthroplogist Rich Benjamin has suggested that the "Trump administration has aimed its rhetoric at a slice of aggrieved white Americans who are panicked about their demographic decline",[52] while political scientist Elliot Jager has written:[53]

Trump directs his appeal at disenfranchised working-class Americans by telling them that he’ll “make America great again,” intimating that he’ll reverse the demographic decline of whites by "humanely" deporting 11 million mostly Hispanic, illegal aliens; will protect the homeland by banning Muslims from entering, and will build an impenetrable barrier on the Mexican border.

After the inauguration of President Trump, a March 2017 New Republic article examined Chief Strategist Steve Bannon's advocacy for 1973 book The Camp of the Saints, which it described as "an explicitly racist novel, saturated in deep fear at the prospect of white demographic decline."[54]

In the 2020s, study of American politics increasingly factored in the demographic reduction with analysing the Republican Party's electoral success and future strategy. For example, in analysis of the 2020 presidential election results, University of Melbourne professor Timothy J. Lynch suggests "white demographic decline need not spell disaster for the GOP. Despite his dog-whistle racism, Trump performed better than expected among Black voters."[55] In relation to the party's future direction, UCLA's political scientist Gary Segura notes that "Republicans nationally receive 85 percent of their votes from white voters by capturing between 55 and 60 percent of their ballots in each election", adding that "with the demographic decline of white voters, even 60 percent of that cohort will be a poor start when it comprises just two-thirds of the electorate in 2024".[56] Professor Nicholas Lemann also argues that high motivation and corresponding turnout from the Republican Party's supporter base would be required to offset the ongoing demographic decline of whites by the 2024 election.[57]

Interviewed by Jeffrey Goldberg in 2020, the director of documentary film White Noise proposed that that the decline of whites had become the most significant driving force in the politics of the US. Daniel Lombroso stated "There is a deep-seated fear of white demographic decline in this country, and obviously in Europe. And I think that is now the defining fault line in American politics".[58]

References

  1. ^ a b Iwan Morgan (23 December 2010). "Why the US outstrips Europe for population growth". BBC.
  2. ^ a b Hope Yen (March 17, 2013). "Rise of Latino population blurs US racial lines". Associated Press. Despite being a nation of immigrants, America's tip to a white minority has never occurred in its 237-year history and will be a first among the world's major post-industrial societies. Brazil, a developing nation, has crossed the threshold to "majority-minority" status; a few cities in France and England are near, if not past that point.
  3. ^ a b José Pedro Zúquete (2018). The Identitarians: The Movement against Globalism and Islam in Europe. University of Notre Dame Press. ISBN 978-0268104214.
  4. ^ a b Monica Toft (January 11, 2019). "White right? How demographics is changing US politics". Salon.
  5. ^ a b Katha Pollitt (2015). Pro: Reclaiming Abortion Rights. Picador. ISBN 978-1250072665. Anti-feminism, shaming of sexually active girls and single women, fears of white demographic decline and conservative views of marriage and sexuality, or outright misogyny.
  6. ^ a b Marlene Fried (2015). "Review: A Positive Social Good". Women's Review of Books. Vol. 32. Old City Publishing. p. 3-5.
  7. ^ a b Jamie Winders (2011). "Representing the Immigrant". In Robert Brinkmann; Graham A. Tobin (eds.). Southeastern Geographer: Innovations in Southern Studies. The University of North Carolina Press. ISBN 978-0807882870. In rural communities in the South, immigration often keeps smaller towns afloat, maintaining local schools, populations, and economies in the face of white demographic decline.
  8. ^ Population and Development Review, Wiley Online Library, March 12, 2020, A fortiori in the existing circumstances of white demographic decline. (On white decline in the United States, see the article by Kenneth M. Johnson in this issue.) ... The US Census Bureau's assessment of when America will become "majority minority" is an evident case in point. For the country as a whole, the currently projected year is 2045; for the under-18 population, 2020. But aside from the absurd degree of precision, the calculation ignores the blurring of ethnic boundaries that inevitably takes place—in particular, "whiteshift."
  9. ^ Hui Bai; Christopher M. Federico (2020), White and Minority Demographic Shifts, Intergroup Threat, and Right-Wing Extremism, University of Minnesota: PsyArXiv
  10. ^ Isaac Chotiner (April 30, 2019). "A Political Scientist Defends White Identity Politics". The New Yorker.
  11. ^ "Taking White Interests Seriously?". Hannah Arendt Center for Politics and Humanities. May 26, 2019.
  12. ^ Richard Alba (January 6, 2017). "The U.S. is becoming more racially diverse. But Democrats may not benefit". The Washington Post. To begin with, the census data that these forecasts are based on exaggerate the extent of white demographic decline; even the prediction of a majority-minority society is not guaranteed. The reason lies in the census misclassifications of a fast-growing group of young Americans from ethno-racially mixed backgrounds.
  13. ^ William H. Frey (July 1, 2020). "The nation is diversifying even faster than predicted, according to new census data". Brookings Institution.
  14. ^ "The countrie continues sicklie': white mortality in Jamaica, 1655-1780", Studies in the Social History of Medicine, vol. 12, Society for the Social History of Medicine, April 2019, p. 45-72
  15. ^ Dudley L. Poston Jr.; Rogelio Sáenz (May 25, 2019). "Demographic trends spell the end of the white majority in 2044". Associated Press. Census Bureau projections show that the U.S. population will be "majority-minority" sometime between 2040 and 2050. Our research suggests that this will happen around 2044. Indeed, in 2020, there are projected to be more nonwhite children than white children in the U.S.
  16. ^ a b Eric Kaufmann; Matthew Goodwin (25 October 2018). "Rising ethnic diversity in the West may fuel a (temporary) populist right backlash". London School of Economics.
  17. ^ "Trump understands what many miss: people don't make decisions based on facts". Vox Media. February 8, 2017. In the "racial shift" condition, white study participants read about how by 2050, minorities will represent the majority of people in the United States. In the control condition, participants read about a neutral subject. Those who read about demographic change expressed less warm feelings toward minorities.
  18. ^ More Diverse Yet Less Tolerant? How the Increasingly Diverse Racial Landscape Affects White Americans Racial Attitudes (Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin ed.), SAGE Publications, 2014, Perceived threat to Whites' societal status mediated the effects of the racial shift information on explicit racial attitudes. These results suggest that rather than ushering in a more tolerant future, the increasing diversity of the nation may instead yield intergroup hostility. Implications for intergroup relations and media framing of the racial shift are discussed.
  19. ^ "Notion of Minority-Majority Nation Exacerbates White Racism". Pacific Standard. March 18, 2014.
  20. ^ "Why the Announcement of a Looming White Minority Makes Demographers Nervous". The New York Times. November 22, 2018. Their findings, first published in 2014, showed that white Americans who were randomly assigned to read about the racial shift were more likely to report negative feelings toward racial minorities than those who were not. They were also more likely to support restrictive immigration policies and to say that whites would likely lose status and face discrimination in the future.
  21. ^ Hynek Pallas (June 30, 2019). "Don't take away racism". Göteborgs-Posten.
  22. ^ Fraser Myers (February 25, 2020). "The dangerous war on 'whiteness'". Spiked. Bestselling books talk of White Fragility and Dying of Whiteness. Political upheavals are said to be driven by Whiteshift.
  23. ^ "Event details". York Festival of Ideas. 6 June 2019. Author and political scientist Eric Kaufmann explains why one of the most crucial challenges of our time is to enable conservatives as well as cosmopolitans to view whiteshift as a positive development.
  24. ^ Michael Barone (May 20, 2019). "Michael Barone: Will 'whiteshift' save America from ethnic strife?". Omaha World-Herald. Will Kaufmann's optimistic "whiteshift" scenario ever happen? The current political brouhaha is discouraging, but our history provides grounds for cautious optimism.
  25. ^ Michael Burleigh. "Majority Report" (Issue 470 ed.). Literary Review.
  26. ^ Dowell Myers (May 19, 2018). "The demise of the white majority is a myth". The Washington Post. These stories of white decline obscure the ongoing changes to America's color line, and they serve only to divide. Fortunately, the white American public seems far more content with the more inclusive future that is actually destined to emerge.
  27. ^ Steven L. Gardiner (2004). "The More Things Change: Immigration, Demographics and the Rise of White Identity Politics in America" (PDF). University of Memphis. p. 6-7.
  28. ^ Alejandro I. Canales (2020). "Introduction". Migration, Reproduction and Society: Economic and Demographic Dilemmas in Global Capitalism (Studies in Critical Social Sciences). Haymarket Books. p. 12. ISBN 978-1642593549.
  29. ^ Graham Macklin (July 2019). "The Christchurch Attacks: Livestream Terror in the Viral Video Age". In Paul Cruickshank (ed.). CTC Sentinel. Vol. 12. Combating Terrorism Center. p. 21. Whether Tarrant was conscious of it or not, the title of his mani-festo, "The Great Replacement," which encapsulated his fears about white demographic decline, derived from French anti-immigration writer Renaud Camus, to whom the phrase is commonly attribut-ed, though the basic idea has a far longer historical lineage.
  30. ^ Mark Durie (31 March 2019). "How The Christchurch Killer's Anti-Humanist Ideology". Quadrant. Those who think like him, in Nietzschian fashion, "worship strength". For such as Tarrant, the will to dominate, exercised by any means, is necessary and noble. Tarrant's solution to his crisis of white demographic decline is to incite conflict so that whites will be compelled to awaken, radicalise and grow strong. This is what his attack in Christchurch was all about.
  31. ^ Dakin Andone; Amir Vera; Eliott C. McLaughlin (August 19, 2019). "Man accused of threatening an Ohio Jewish center declared himself a white nationalist in a documentary, police say". CNN. In the documentary, Reardon tells an interviewer that he doesn't consider himself a neo-Nazi, but he is a white nationalist and a member of the alt-right. "I want a homeland for white people, and I think every race should have a homeland," Reardon said. He went on to say there's a "demographic decline" going on not only in the US, but in Europe as well.
  32. ^ Hermann Giliomee; Lawrence Schlemmer (1990). From Apartheid to Nation Building. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0195705508. Forces propelling the change process ... a white demographic decline, growing black militancy, foreign pressure, changes in the Afrikaner class composition, and the fiscal crisis of the South African state.
  33. ^ Adela Fofiu (2014). "Stories of a White Apocalypse on the Romanian Internet". In Veronica Watson; Deirdre Howard-Wagner; Lisa Spanierman (eds.). Unveiling Whiteness in the Twenty-First Century: Global Manifestations, Transdisciplinary Interventions. Lexington Books. ISBN 978-0739192962. Of particular and recurring discussion on the blog were the demographic decline of white people, the purported ... Islamization of Europe, and Gypsification ... Much of the content supported the position that a conspiracy existed to bring about the downfall of the white race ... A Romanian women gives birth on average to 1.3 children, a Romani women - 3 children. What will Romania look like in 2050?
  34. ^ Hélène Barthélemy (February 14, 2018). "How to write history like an Identitarian". Southern Poverty Law Center. They also attempt to unify a youth crippled by boredom in an unfulfilling consumerist society by enlisting them in a civilizational quest: the defense of Europe, described as under siege by immigration, "Islamization" and white demographic decline.
  35. ^ "White Britons 'In Retreat' From Minority Areas". Sky News. 6 May 2013.
  36. ^ Nick Timothy (2014). Remaking One Nation: The Future of Conservatism. Polity. ISBN 978-1509539178.
  37. ^ David Coleman (November 17, 2010). "When Britain becomes "majority minority"". Prospect. Outside London, Leicester and the City of Birmingham are both expected to become "majority minority" some time in the 2020s.
  38. ^ David Coleman (2010), "Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of the United Kingdom 2006–2056", Population and Development Review, vol. 36, Wiley Online Library, p. 441-486
  39. ^ "Can Canada avoid a populist revolt?". The Globe and Mail. February 8, 2019. The nations upended by right-wing populism all have one thing in common. They are all facing white demographic decline. And that is the breeding ground for populist revolts. These revolts are linked directly to immigration, as Eric Kaufmann argues in his deeply researched new book, Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities. In Canada, the demographic shift will be huge. Today about 20 per cent of Canadians are visible minorities. But in 90 years, only about 20 per cent of Canadians will be white
  40. ^ Tanya K. Hernandez (1998). "Multiracial Discourse: Racial Classifications in an Era of Color-blind Jurisprudence blind Jurisprudence". Fordham University.
  41. ^ Eric Kaufmann (July 24, 2004). "Ethnic America". Prospect.
  42. ^ Luis F.B. Plascencia (2013). "Attrition Through Enforcement and the Elimination of a "Dangerous Class"". In Lisa Magaña; Erik Lee (eds.). Latino Politics and Arizona's Immigration Law SB 1070 (Immigrants and Minorities, Politics and Policy). Springer Publishing. p. 119. ISBN 978-1461402954.
  43. ^ Eamonn Callan (2009). "Democratic Patriotism and Mulitcultural Education". In Michael S. Katz; Susan Verducci; Gert Biesta (eds.). Education, Democracy and the Moral Life. Springer Publishing. p. 64. ISBN 978-9048120765.
  44. ^ Sam Roudman (November 1, 2016). "Pat Buchanan is 'Delighted to Be Proven Right' by 2016 Election". New York. There's a lot that's been made in this election about Trump's coalition, about the demographic decline of White America.
  45. ^ Rebecca Barrett-Fox (November 2018). "A King Cyrus President: How Donald Trump's Presidency Reasserts Conservative Christians' Right to Hegemony". Humanity & Society. Vol. 42. SAGE Publications. p. 502-522. That this movement has gained power even amid continuing demographic decline of white American Christians and waning U.S. global hegemony is only further evidence for them of God's hand in the [[ 2016 United States presidential election|2016 election]] and thus God's approval of such trades. {{cite book}}: line feed character in |quote= at position 220 (help)
  46. ^ Edna Chun; Alvin Evans (2018). "An Improbable Landscape for Diversity Cultural Change". Leading a Diversity Culture Shift in Higher Education: Comprehensive Organizational Learning Strategies (New Critical Viewpoints on Society). Routledge. ISBN 978-1138280717. With the demographic decline of whites in America, Donald Trump has given voice to the anger of white citizens who do not feel privileged.
  47. ^ Christopher Caldwell (17 September 2016). "Trump's forgotten people". The Spectator.
  48. ^ a b Damon T. Berry (2017). Blood and Faith: Christianity in American White Nationalism (Religion and Politics). Syracuse University Press. ISBN 978-0815635321. These findings also perhaps point to the susceptibility of white Americans, white Evangelicals in particular, to Far Right ideology expressed by the Alt-Right and white nationalists ... As demographics continue to trend toward the decline of the white majority in the United States, a demographic decline of white Evangelicals in particular, we may see the increasing appeal of protectionist rhetoric as a radicalizing element for some white Americans, Christian and non-Christian alike.
  49. ^ Peter Savodnik (February 11, 2020). ""How Could You Not Connect the Dots?": Inside the Red-Pilling of State Department Official Matthew Gebert". The Spectator. Then, on the morning of August 7, 2019, Hatewatch reported that Gebert was the leader of an alt-right cell in Northern Virginia, and that he had posted anti-Semitic comments on white nationalist forums and been a guest on a now defunct podcast called The Fatherland, which addressed issues like white demographic decline
  50. ^ Mark Sedgwick (2019). Key Thinkers of the Radical Right: Behind the New Threat to Liberal Democracy. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0190877590. Trump's economic protectionist, anti-immigration platform, from building the wall to the "Muslim ban," represent measures that, Johnson believes, will slow white demographic decline, "giving us a few extra decades before we are a minority in our homeland."' Trump is not the "last chance" for whites "but he is the last chance for the United States of America," he argues.
  51. ^ Jeremy T. Godwin (2020). "The Gospel According to White Christian Nationalism". In Faith Agostinone-Wilson (ed.). On the Question of Truth in the Era of Trump (Critical Media Literacies). Brill Publishers. ISBN 978-9004391277. An Americanized version of salvation, where White demographic decline is halted and the country is purged of the Other. Whether the person who buys the hat actually "believes" these things is mostly irrelevant, because the act of consumption, followed by the act of wearing, is a ritual that signals "you are in it,"
  52. ^ Rich Benjamin (July 19, 2019). "Trump's race-baiting hasn't produced many policy wins, but that was never the point". LA Times.
  53. ^ Elliot Jager (April 9, 2016). "Should Jews worry about Trump?". The Jerusalem Post.
  54. ^ Sarah Jones (March 14, 2017). "Steve King says racist things because he knows the GOP won't call him out on it". The New Republic.
  55. ^ Timothy J. Lynch (November 9, 2020). "What's next for the Republicans after Trump?". University of Melbourne.
  56. ^ Gary Segura (2012). "The Browning of America". Democracy.
  57. ^ Nicholas Lemann (October 23, 2020). "The Republican Identity Crisis After Trump". The New Yorker. It would require extremely high motivation among Trump's base-- mainly exurban or rural, actively religious, and not highly educated-- along with a strong appeal to affluent whites ... in the Trump heartland, he could compensate, at least in part, for the demographic decline of white voters.
  58. ^ Jeffrey Goldberg (October 21, 2020). "The Challenge of Documenting White Nationalism". The Atlantic.
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