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→‎Projections: 22 May: a study published in ''Nature Sustainability'' projected that current policies leading to ~2.7 °C global warming could leave 22–39% of humans outside their "human climate niche"—defined as "the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature."<ref name=NatureSustainability_20230522/> The study projected that reducing warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C would result in a ~5-fold decrease in population expo
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* 5 April: in its ''Boom and Bust Coal'' publication, [[Global Energy Monitor]] stated that phasing out operating coal power by 2040 would require an average of 117 GW of retirements per year—4.5 times the capacity retired in 2022.<ref name=GlobalEnergyMonitor20230405/> An average of 60 GW/yr for OECD countries, and 91 GW/year for non-OECD countries, must come offline.<ref name=GlobalEnergyMonitor20230405/>
* 5 April: in its ''Boom and Bust Coal'' publication, [[Global Energy Monitor]] stated that phasing out operating coal power by 2040 would require an average of 117 GW of retirements per year—4.5 times the capacity retired in 2022.<ref name=GlobalEnergyMonitor20230405/> An average of 60 GW/yr for OECD countries, and 91 GW/year for non-OECD countries, must come offline.<ref name=GlobalEnergyMonitor20230405/>
* 17 May: the ''[[World Meteorological Organization|WMO]] Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update'' projected that the chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is 66%, though it is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C.<ref name=WMO_20230517/>
* 17 May: the ''[[World Meteorological Organization|WMO]] Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update'' projected that the chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is 66%, though it is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C.<ref name=WMO_20230517/>
* 22 May: a study published in ''[[Nature Sustainability]]'' projected that current policies leading to ~2.7 °C global warming could leave 22–39% of humans outside their "human climate niche"—defined as "the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature."<ref name=NatureSustainability_20230522/> The study projected that reducing warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C would result in a ~5-fold decrease in population exposed to unprecedented heat.<ref name=NatureSustainability_20230522/>


==Significant publications==
==Significant publications==
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<ref name=NatureSustainability_20230313>{{cite journal |last1=Jin |first1=Yubin |last2=Hu |first2=Shijie |last3=Ziegler |first3=Alan D. |last4=Gibson |first4=Luke |last5=Campbell |first5=J. Elliott |last6=Xu |first6=Rongrong |last7=Chen |first7=Deliang |last8=Zhu |first8=Kai |last9=Zheng |first9=Yan |last10=Ye |first10=Bin |last11=Ye |first11=Fan |last12=Zeng |first12=Zhenzhong |display-authors=4 |title=Energy production and water savings from floating solar photovoltaics on global reservoirs |journal=Nature Sustainablity |date=13 March 2023 |pages=1–10 |doi=10.1038/s41893-023-01089-6 |s2cid=257514885 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01089-6}}</ref>
<ref name=NatureSustainability_20230313>{{cite journal |last1=Jin |first1=Yubin |last2=Hu |first2=Shijie |last3=Ziegler |first3=Alan D. |last4=Gibson |first4=Luke |last5=Campbell |first5=J. Elliott |last6=Xu |first6=Rongrong |last7=Chen |first7=Deliang |last8=Zhu |first8=Kai |last9=Zheng |first9=Yan |last10=Ye |first10=Bin |last11=Ye |first11=Fan |last12=Zeng |first12=Zhenzhong |display-authors=4 |title=Energy production and water savings from floating solar photovoltaics on global reservoirs |journal=Nature Sustainablity |date=13 March 2023 |pages=1–10 |doi=10.1038/s41893-023-01089-6 |s2cid=257514885 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01089-6}}</ref>

<ref name=NatureSustainability_20230522>{{cite journal |last1=Lenton |first1=Timothy M. |last2=Xu |first2=Chi |last3=Abrams |first3=Jesse F. |last4=Ghadiali |first4=Ashish |last5=Loriani |first5=Sina |last6=Sakschewski |first6=Boris |last7=Zimm |first7=Caroline |last8=Ebi |first8=Kristie L. |last9=Dunn |first9=Robert R. |last10=Svenning |first10=Jens-Christian Svenning |last11=Scheffer |first11=Marten |display-authors=4 |title=Quantifying the human cost of global warming |journal=Nature Sustainability |date=22 May 2023 |volume=2023 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6 }}</ref>


<ref name=NatureWater_20230313>{{cite journal |last1=Rodell |first1=Matthew |last2=Li |first2=Bailing |title=Changing intensity of hydroclimatic extreme events revealed by GRACE and GRACE-FO |journal=Nature Water |date=13 March 2023 |volume=1 |issue=3 |pages=241–248 |doi=10.1038/s44221-023-00040-5 |s2cid=257525498 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-023-00040-5.epdf }}</ref>
<ref name=NatureWater_20230313>{{cite journal |last1=Rodell |first1=Matthew |last2=Li |first2=Bailing |title=Changing intensity of hydroclimatic extreme events revealed by GRACE and GRACE-FO |journal=Nature Water |date=13 March 2023 |volume=1 |issue=3 |pages=241–248 |doi=10.1038/s44221-023-00040-5 |s2cid=257525498 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-023-00040-5.epdf }}</ref>

Revision as of 15:34, 24 May 2023

List of years in climate change
+...

This article documents events, research findings, effects, and responses related to global warming and climate change during the year 2023.

Summaries

Message for fossil fuel producers

     I have a special message for fossil fuel producers and their enablers scrambling to expand production and raking in monster profits: If you cannot set a credible course for net-zero, with 2025 and 2030 targets covering all your operations, you should not be in business.

—António Guterres, U.N. Secretary-General[1]
6 February 2023

Measurements and statistics

  • 3 January: the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that Antarctic sea ice extent stood at the lowest in the 45-year satellite record—more than 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) below the previous record (2018), with four of the five lowest years for the last half of December having occurred since 2016.[3]
  • 26 January: Bloomberg NEF's "Energy Transition Investment Trends" report estimated that, for the first time, energy transition investment matched global fossil fuel investment—$1.1 trillion in 2022, including China with $546 billion, the US with $141 billion, and the EU if treated as a bloc, $180 billion.[4]
  • Reported 10 May: Drax Electric Insights reported that in the first three months of 2023, Britain's wind turbines generated more electricity (32.4%) than gas-fired power stations (31.7%) for the first time.[5]
  • 18 May: a study published in Science reported that more than 50% of freshwater lakes and reservoirs lost volume from 1992 to 2020.[6]

Natural events and phenomena

  • 7 February: a study published in Nature Communications concluded that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), more than half being from India, Pakistan, Peru, and China.[7] Climate change has intensified glacial ice melt and expanded glacial lakes.[7]
  • 13 February: a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported that increasing abundance of a thermotolerant symbiotic alga hosted by corals has facilitated maintenance of high coral cover after three mass coral bleaching events, suggesting that future reefs might maintain high cover for several decades, albeit with low diversity and provided that other stressors are minimized.[8]
  • 2 March: a study published in Science said that boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% of global fire CO2 emissions, contributed 23% in 2021, by far the highest fraction since 2000.[9] 2021 was an abnormal year because North American and Eurasian boreal forests synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit.[9]
  • 13 March: a study published in Nature Water found that total intensity of extreme events (droughts and pluvials (rainfall events)) is strongly correlated with global mean temperature, and concluded that continued warming of the planet will cause more frequent, more severe, longer and/or larger of such extreme events, and that "distortion of the water cycle... will be among the most conspicuous consequences of climate change".[10]
  • 15 February: Two joint studies by the British Antarctic Survey and the US Antarctic programme finds that glaciers on the icy continent may be more sensitive to changes in sea temperature than previously thought. Researchers used sensors and an underwater robot beneath the Thwaites glacier to study melting.[11][12][13] One day earlier, a new record low Antarctic sea ice extent is reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the US, beating the previous record set a year earlier.[14][15]
  • 7 April: citing reduced air density caused by global warming, a study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society estimated global warming has enabled more than 500 excess home runs in Major League Baseball since 2010, and projected hundreds more in this century, explaining that "even the elite billion-dollar sports industry is vulnerable to unexpected impacts" of global warming.[16]
  • 29 March: a study published in Nature concluded that under a high-emissions scenario, abyssal warming is set to accelerate over the next 30 years, and that meltwater input around Antarctica drives a contraction of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), opening a pathway that allows warm circumpolar deep water greater access to the continental shelf and results in warming and aging of the abyssal ocean.[17] The study described the "critical importance of Antarctic meltwater in setting the abyssal ocean overturning, with implications for global ocean biogeochemistry and climate that could last for centuries".[17]

Actions, and goal statements

Science and technology

Political, economic, legal, and cultural actions

  • 1 January: Extinction Rebellion made a statement that for 2023 it had made "a controversial resolution to temporarily shift away from public disruption as a primary tactic", after 2022's traffic blockages and throwing soup on the case of Vincent van Gogh’s "Sunflowers" painting.[32]
  • 11 January: the French National Assembly adopted the Acceleration of Renewable Energies bill, which includes a requirement to install solar panels on all car parks (parking lots) of over 1,500 square metres (16,100 square feet).[33]
  • 25 January: A paper in Harvard Environmental Law Review suggests that according to already-existing law fossil fuel companies may be chargeable with homicide due to climate change effects and e.g. partly their deception of the public and proactive prevention of regulations or adequate regulations. The paper is focused on corporate actors and does not address e.g. politicians' and policymakers' responsibilities, economic pressures or incentives, and responsibilities for solutions to these underlying economic issues.[34][35]
  • 14 February: the European Parliament effectively banned sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the European Union from 2035, and set a 55% cut over 2021 CO2 emission levels for new cars sold from 2030.[36]
  • March: the UN 2023 Water Conference was held in New York.[37]
  • 21 April: a review study published in One Earth stated that opinion polls show that most people perceive climate change as occurring now and close by.[38] The study concluded that seeing climate change as more distant does not necessarily result in less climate action, and reducing psychological distancing does not reliably increase climate action.[38]
  • 21 April: the Director General of the United Nations' International Organization for Migration said that there are more people displaced because of climate change than because of conflicts, explaining that climate change and conflict interact as triggers of displacement.[39]
  • 19 May: a study published in One Earth estimated that the top 21 fossil fuel companies will owe cumulative climate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025–2050.[40]
  • November: the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference is scheduled to be held in Dubai.[41]

Mitigation goal statements

  • 15 April: a communique from a meeting of G7 ministers pledged to collectively increase offshore wind capacity by 150 gigawatts by 2030 and solar capacity to more than 1 terawatt, and agreed to accelerate the phase-out of unabated (without recapture) fossil fuels to achieve net zero by 2050.[42] They stopped short of endorsing a 2030 deadline for phasing out coal, and left the door open for continued investment in gas to help address potential energy shortfalls.[42]

Adaptation goal statements

Consensus

Projections

Projections for different amounts of global warming: Melting of glacial mass, sea level rise, and loss of number of glaciers.[43]

      The consequences of (sea level rise) are unthinkable. Low-lying communities and entire countries could disappear forever. We would witness a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale.

—António Guterres, U.N. Secretary-General[44]
14 February 2023

  • 2 January: a study published in Earth's Future (American Geophysical Union) concluded that the greatest increase in the amount of coastal area below mean sea level will occur in the early stages of sea level rise (SLR), contrary to earlier assessments, shortening time for adaptation efforts.[45] Latest projections indicate that SLR is certain to exceed 2 metres (6.6 ft) in coming centuries, and a rise by 4 metres (13 ft) is considered possible.[45]
  • 5 January: a study published in Science stated that, based on then-current pledges, global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7 °C, which would cause loss of about half of Earth's glaciers by 2100, causing a sea level rise of 115±40 millimeters (not counting ice sheet melt).[43]
  • 30 January: Climate scientists predict, using artificial intelligence, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that global warming will exceed 1.5 °C in the next decade (scenario SSP2-4.5), and a nearly 70% chance of 2 °C between 2044 and 2065 (~2054) – a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold – even if emissions rapidly decline (scenario SSP1-2.6).[46][47]
  • February: the International Energy Agency's Electricity Market Report 2023 projected that low-emissions sources will constitute almost all the growth in global electricity demand through 2025, with renewables' portion of global power generation rising from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025.[48]
  • 6 March: The highest-granularity study on food GHGs, published in Nature Climate Change, reports that global food consumption alone would lead to failed climate goals with constant patterns, with ~75% of the projected warming due to ruminant meat, dairy and rice, albeit consumption currently shifts towards higher emissions overall as economic development is expected to facilitate acquisitions of undifferentiated goods like beef.[49][50]
  • 13 March: a study published in Nature Sustainability forecast that floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems on reservoirs could provide 9,434±29 terawatt-hours/year[51]—over a third of global electricity.[52]
  • 27 March: a study in Geophysical Research Letters attempts to provide estimations of the tipping point(s) of the Greenland ice sheet.[53][54]
  • 5 April: in its Boom and Bust Coal publication, Global Energy Monitor stated that phasing out operating coal power by 2040 would require an average of 117 GW of retirements per year—4.5 times the capacity retired in 2022.[55] An average of 60 GW/yr for OECD countries, and 91 GW/year for non-OECD countries, must come offline.[55]
  • 17 May: the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update projected that the chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is 66%, though it is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C.[56]
  • 22 May: a study published in Nature Sustainability projected that current policies leading to ~2.7 °C global warming could leave 22–39% of humans outside their "human climate niche"—defined as "the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature."[57] The study projected that reducing warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C would result in a ~5-fold decrease in population exposed to unprecedented heat.[57]

Significant publications

Observed Changes and Impacts

     Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people (high confidence). Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected (high confidence).

—"Headline Statement A2" in the AR6 Synthesis Report[58]

  • February: "Electricity Market Report 2023" (PDF). iea.org. International Energy Agency. February 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 February 2023.
  • 22 March: "AR6 Synthesis Report / Headline Statements". IPCC.ch. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. March 2023. Archived from the original on 22 March 2023.
  • 22 March: "Longer Report of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Six Assessment Report (AR6)" (PDF). IPCC.ch. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. March 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on 22 March 2023.
  • 23 March: Gilmore, Anna B; et al. (April 2023). "Defining and conceptualising the commercial determinants of health". The Lancet. 401 (10383): 1194–1213. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(23)00013-2. ISSN 0140-6736. PMID 36966782. S2CID 257698115.
  • 21 April: "State of the Global Climate". WMO.int. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 21 April 2023. Archived from the original on 21 April 2023.
  • 17 May: "WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update". World Meteorological Organization. 17 May 2023. Archived from the original on 17 May 2023.

See also

References

  1. ^ Nichols, Michelle (6 February 2023). "For 2023, U.N. chief amplifies warnings on Ukraine, climate". Reuters. Archived from the original on 8 February 2023.
  2. ^ "AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 — IPCC". Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  3. ^ "Ice down under". 3 January 2023. Archived from the original on 6 January 2023. Fig. 5a
  4. ^ "Global Low-Carbon Energy Technology Investment Surges Past $1 Trillion for the First Time". BloombergNEF. 26 January 2023. Archived from the original on 26 January 2023.
  5. ^ "Wind powers Britain more than gas for first time". Drax. 10 May 2023. Archived from the original on 14 May 2023.
  6. ^ Yao, Fangfang; Livneh, Ben; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Wang, Jida; Crétaux, Jean-François; Wada, Yoshihide; Berge-Nguyen, Muriel (18 May 2023). "Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage". Science. 380 (6646). doi:10.1126/science.abo2812. "The net volume loss in natural lakes is largely attributable to climate warming, increasing evaporative demand, and human water consumption, whereas sedimentation dominates storage losses in reservoirs."
  7. ^ a b Taylor, Caroline; Robinson, Tom R.; Dunning, Stuart; Carr, J. Rachel; Westoby, Matthew (7 February 2023). "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally". Nature Communications. 14 (487): 1805. Bibcode:2023NatCo..14..487T. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36033-x. PMC 9905510. PMID 36750561. S2CID 256631924.
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External links

Organizations

Surveys, summaries and report lists

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