Estimate (horse)

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Estimate
Owner The Queen.svg
Racing silks of the Queen
Sire Monsun
Grandsire Königsstuhl
Dam Ebaziya
Damsire Darshaan
Sex Filly
Foaled 4 April 2009
Country Ireland
Colour Bay
Breeder The Aga Khan's Studs
Owner Queen Elizabeth II
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute
Record 9: 4-1-2
Earnings £365,893
Major wins
Queen's Vase (2012)
Sagaro Stakes (2013)
Ascot Gold Cup (2013)
Awards
Cartier Champion Stayer (2013)

Estimate (foaled 4 April 2009) is an Irish-bred, British-trained Thoroughbred racehorse who won the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot as a three-year-old. As a four-year-old she won the Sagaro Stakes before returning to Royal Ascot to win the Gold Cup. She is owned by Queen Elizabeth II and trained by Sir Michael Stoute. In 2014 she tested positive to morphine in a post race drugs test.

Background[edit]

Estimate is a bay filly bred by the Aga Khan's Studs and foaled on 4 April 2009.[1] She was sired by Monsun, who won the Europa Preis twice. He was also a successful stallion, siring Shirocco, Manduro and Stacelita.[2] Estimate's dam is Ebaziya, a daughter of Darshaan.[1] Ebaziya was trained by John Oxx and won three Listed races in Ireland, including the Ballysax Stakes.[3] Ebaziya was given to Queen Elizabeth II as an 80th birthday present.[4] She was sent to German sire Monsun, resulting Estimate.[4] She is the 14th foal of Ebaziya and one of her eight winner offsprings.[5]

Estimate's half-brother, Enzeli, also won the Gold Cup in 1999.[6] Estimate is trained by Sir Michael Stoute.[1]

Racing career[edit]

2011: two-year-old season[edit]

Estimate's only race as a two-year-old was a maiden over one and a half miles at Leicester. She was slowly away at the start and raced in the rear for most of the race. She made a few places up near the end of the race and finished in seventh, about eight lengths behind winner Esentepe.[7] Esentepe went on to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes the following season.[8]

2012: three-year-old season[edit]

Estimate's regular jockey Ryan Moore

Estimate started her three-year-old career in a twelve furlong maiden at Salisbury. She started the race at the price of 12/1 and was positioned in the middle of the pack by jockey Pat Dobbs. She took the lead with over one furlong left to run and stayed on to win by two and three quarters of a length from Mysterious Man.[9] Despite only winning a maiden she started as the 3/1 favourite for the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. Estimate was ridden by Ryan Moore for the first time, who placed her in the middle of the field. She began to move through the field three furlongs out and took the lead two out. At the end of the race she pulled clear to win by five lengths from Athens. Ed De Gas was a further length and a half behind in third place, with Macbeth in fourth.[10]

At Glorious Goodwood she contested the Lillie Langtry Stakes. In the closing stages she was unable to catch leader Wild Coco and was just overtaken by Jehannedarc in the final few yards, finishing third, about three lengths behind winner Wild Coco.[11] Estimate faced Wild Coco again in the Park Hill Stakes in September. She pulled three lengths clear with one furlong left to run, but was overhauled by Wild Coco and Hazel Lavery, eventually finishing third, one and three quarter lengths behind winner Wild Coco.[12]

2013: four-year-old season[edit]

In the Sagaro Stakes, Estimate followed the leaders until making her challenge in the closing stages of the race. She took the lead one furlong out and won by one and three quarters of a length from Caucus, with Sir Graham Wade a further half length back in third place.[13]

In June she returned to Ascot for the Royal meeting and contested the Ascot Gold Cup, her first attempt at Group 1 level. Saddler's Rock led the race for the first few furlongs, with Estimate, ridden by regular jockey Ryan Moore, near also near the front. Moore asked for an effort as they turned into the finishing straight and took the lead from Colour Vision with one furlong still to run. Estimate was challenged by Simenon and Top Trip, but held on to win by a neck from Simenon.[14] Top Trip was a further length behind in third, with Colour Vision finishing fourth.[15] The Queen was due to present the trophy to the winner, but it was instead presented by her son Prince Andrew. Estimate's victory was the first time the Gold Cup had been won by the reigning monarch.[16][17]

On her only subsequent appearance in 2013, Estimate started 2/1 favourite for the British Champions Long Distance Cup at Ascot on 19 October, but made no impact, finishing seventh of the twelve runners behind Royal Diamond.

2014: five-year-old season[edit]

Estimate remained in training as a five-year-old, with the Gold Cup as her objective. She suffered from muscular problems in her right hind leg and Stoute was unable to give her a trial race before she ran in the Gold Cup on 19 June. Starting at odds of 8/1 she raced in mid-division before moving up to challenge the leaders in the straight. In a closely contested finish she was beaten into second place, a neck behind the 2013 St Leger winner Leading Light. Ryan Moore reportedly described the mare's performance as a "career best".[18]

In a post race drugs test, Estimate tested positive to morphine, a drug banned on race days. The drug is believed to have been in contaminated food. Four other horses also tested positive to the drug.[19]

Pedigree[edit]

Pedigree of Estimate (IRE), bay filly 2009[20]
Sire
Monsun (GER)
1990
Konigsstuhl (GER)
1976
Dschingis Khan Tamerlane
Donna Diana
Konigskronung Tiepoletto
Kronung
Mosella (GER)
1985
Surumu Literat
Surama
Monashia Authi
Monacensia
Dam
Ebaziya (IRE)
1989
Darshaan (GB)
1981
Shirley Heights Mill Reef
Hardiemma
Delsy Abdos
Kelty
Ezana (IRE)
1983
Ela-Mana-Mou Pitcairn
Rose Bertin
Evisa Dan Cupid
Albanilla

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c "Estimate". Racing Post. 2 June 2011. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  2. ^ "Monsun". Racing Post. 15 February 2012. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  3. ^ "Ebaziya". Racing Post. 2 June 2011. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  4. ^ a b Schlink, Leo (21 June 2013). "The Queen becomes first ruling monarch in 207 years to win Gold Cup as Estimate scores". Herald Sun (London). Retrieved 22 June 2013. 
  5. ^ Madgwick, Tara (21 June 2013). "Queen Wins Ascot Gold Cup". Breed Net. Retrieved 22 June 2013. 
  6. ^ "Estimate wins gold cup". ANZ. 21 June 2013. Retrieved 22 June 2013. 
  7. ^ "Results From The 5.00 Race At Leicester". Racing Post. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  8. ^ "Esentepe". Racing Post. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  9. ^ "Results From The 4.10 Race At Salisbury". Racing Post. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  10. ^ "Queen's Vase result". Racing Post. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  11. ^ "Lillie Langtry Stakes result". Racing Post. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  12. ^ "Park Hill Stakes result". Racing Post. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  13. ^ "Sagaro Stakes result". Racing Post. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  14. ^ "Queen's horse Estimate wins Gold Cup at Royal Ascot Ladies' Day". Guardian. 20 June 2013. Retrieved 21 June 2013. 
  15. ^ "Ascot Gold Cup result". Racing Post. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  16. ^ Frank Keogh. "Royal Ascot: The Queen's horse Estimate wins historic Gold Cup". BBC. Retrieved 20 June 2013. 
  17. ^ "Queen ecstatic after Estimate wins Gold Cup at Ascot to cap a stunning royal occasion on Ladies Day". Daily Mail. 20 June 2013. Retrieved 21 June 2013. 
  18. ^ Tom Park (19 June 2014). "Leading Light denies Estimate in Gold Cup thriller". Racing Post. Retrieved 2014-06-19. 
  19. ^ "Queen's horse Estimate tests positive for morphine". BBC Sport. 22 July 2014. Retrieved 22 July 2014. 
  20. ^ "Estimate pedigree". Equineline. 8 May 2012. Retrieved 20 June 2013.