2015 Tanzanian general election

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Tanzanian general election, 2015
← 2010 25 October 2015 (2015-10-25)[a] 2020 →
c. 23 million voters to be registered[1]
Simple-majority[b] votes needed to win
Opinion polls
 
Party CCM Chadema CUF
Incumbent President

Jakaya Kikwete
CCM



The Tanzanian general election of 2015 will be the 5th quinquennial election to be held since the restoration of multi-party system in 1992. Voters will elect the President, Members of Parliament and the local government.[2] By convention, it is held on the last Sunday of October. The incumbent president, Jakaya Kikwete, is ineligible to be elected to a third term due to term limits.[3]

Background

President Jakaya Kikwete is looking forward to his retirement. He has described the presidency as being both "stressful and thankless".[4]

Tanzania is a democratic, secular and a de jure socialist state. The Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) (and its predecessor parties) has dominated the political scene since the nation attained independence in 1961. Following the restoration of multi-party system in 1992, it has continued to retain its popularity and the voter's confidence, having won all the past four general elections in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010.[5] Jakaya Kikwete, its presidential candidate in 2005 won by a landslide receiving more than 80 percent of the popular vote.[6] In the last election, Kikwete won his second and final term and the party attained 186 of the 239 constituencies, thus achieving an outright majority in the National Assembly.[7]

The Tanzanian diaspora will not be able to vote in this election.[8] Following statements made by some politicians that the election may be postponed, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) confirmed that it will be held in October. All eligible voters will be registered by July using the Biometric Voters’ Register (BVR) kits.[9] On 1 May 2015, President Kikwete denied reports that his government plans to extend his constitutional term and assured the nation that he was "leaving in October".[10]

Presidential election

Voters will select the fifth President and his/her running mate as the Vice President of Tanzania. Article 39 of the Tanzanian Constitution stipulates the qualifications for a person to be elected as President. Among other requirements, the person must be a citizen by birth in accordance with the Tanzanian nationality law and have attained the age of 40. The individual must also have been nominated by a political party. Part of these requirements, however, may change subject to the adoption of the proposed constitution via a referendum.[11]

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

The following individuals have declared their intention to vie for the presidency.

  • CCM
  • Others

Potential candidates

The individuals listed below are potential candidates and they have been the focus of intense media speculation over the past months.

CCM
CHADEMA
  • Wilbroad Slaa, former MP and presidential candidate [42]
CUF

Parliamentary election

Tanzanian parliamentary election, 2015
← 2010 25 October 2015 (2015-10-25)[a] 2020 →
All 239 of the 357 seats to the National Assembly
120 elected seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Mizengo Pinda Freeman Mbowe Mohamed Mnyaa
Party CCM Chadema CUF
Leader since 9 February 2008 November 2010 ?
Leader's seat Katavi Hai Mkanyageni
Last election 186 23 24
Current seats 263 49 35
Seats needed – Increase97 Increase96
Composition of the current parliament
Incumbent Prime Minister

Mizengo Pinda
CCM



Voting will take place in all the 239 parliamentary constituencies in order to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) to seats in the National Assembly.[2]

Electoral system

Tanzania uses first-past-the-post voting method.

MPs standing down

CCM

Zanzibar

The semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar elects its own President and members to its subnational legislature, the Zanzibar House of Representatives. The Zanzibar Electoral Commission has declared 25 October as the election date.[46]

Presidential election

Publicly expressed interest
Portrait Name Political Experience
Hamad Rashid Mohamed[47] incumbent MP
Seif Sharif Hamad[48] incumbent First Vice President of Zanzibar
Juma Ali Khatib[49] Secretary General of Tanzania Democratic Alliance

Opinion polls

Poll source Date Sample size Undecided Lowassa
CCM 		Pinda
CCM 		Slaa
CHADEMA 		Lipumba
CUF 		Membe
CCM 		Sitta
CCM 		Magufuli
CCM 		Mbowe
CHADEMA 		Zitto
CHADEMA
Twaweza[50] September 2014 1,445 33% 13% 12% 11% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 1%
Poll source Date Sample size Undecided Lowassa
CCM 		Slaa
CHADEMA 		Nchemba
CCM 		Lipumba
CUF 		Zitto
CHADEMA 		Magufuli
CCM 		Membe
CCM 		Pinda
CCM 		Makamba
CCM
Positive Thinkers[51] March 2015 3,298 2.4% 22.8% 19.5% 10.6% 8.9% 6.7% 6.8% 5.9% 3.2% 1.6%

Notes

a.^ By convention, it is held on the last Sunday of October.
b.^ This may change to 50%+1 as per the recommendations of the proposed constitution
c.^ Zitto will be 39 at the time of the next election, thus making him ineligible as he will be under forty.
d.^ Lipumba has been endorsed by many leaders from his party.
e.^ She was sacked by the President from her ministerial portfolio in December 2014, thus diminishing her prospects.

References

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  2. ^ a b "EISA: Tanzania". Johannesburg: Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa. Retrieved 1 March 2014.
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  4. ^ "A Conversation with the President of Tanzania, Jakaya Kikwete" (Interview). Interviewed by Monde Muyangwa. 3 April 2015. Retrieved 18 April 2015. {{cite interview}}: Unknown parameter |call-sign= ignored (help); Unknown parameter |city= ignored (|location= suggested) (help)
  5. ^ O'Gorman, Melanie (26 April 2012). "Why the CCM won't lose: the roots of single-party dominance in Tanzania". Journal of Contemporary African Studies. 30 (2). Taylor & Francis: 313–333. doi:10.1080/02589001.2012.669566. Retrieved 20 March 2015.
  6. ^ "Landslide win for Tanzania's CCM". BBC News. 19 December 2005. Retrieved 20 March 2015.
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  11. ^ Ng'wanakilala, Fumbuka (22 October 2014). Macharia, James; Evans, Catherine (eds.). "Tanzania to hold referendum on new constitution in April 2015". Dar es Salaam. Reuters. Retrieved 17 December 2014.
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  15. ^ Mwangonde, Henry (28 August 2014). "Pinda 2015 declaration bad for govt, says TCF". The Citizen. Dar es Salaam. Retrieved 29 August 2014.
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  17. ^ "Mizengo Pinda kuwania Urais Tanzania" (Interview) (in Swahili). Interviewed by Saleem Kikeke. 21 October 2014. Retrieved 28 October 2014. {{cite interview}}: Unknown parameter |call-sign= ignored (help); Unknown parameter |city= ignored (|location= suggested) (help); Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)
  18. ^ Mjema, Daniel (3 September 2014). "I will go for the top job, Sitta declares". The Citizen. Dodoma. Retrieved 3 September 2014.
  19. ^ Matandiko, Kelvin. "Sitta: Huu ni mtaji wangu wa urais". Mwananchi (in Swahili). Dar es Salaam. Retrieved 24 April 2015.
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  22. ^ Gamaina, Christopher (17 September 2014). "Wassira: Nitagombea urais Uchaguzi mkuu 2015". Raia Mwema (in Swahili). Mwanza. Retrieved 19 September 2014. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)
  23. ^ Andrew, Gasper (29 December 2014). "Nyalandu joins race for State House". The Citizen. Singida. Retrieved 29 December 2014.
  24. ^ Athumani, Rose (21 May 2012). "Chadema Clarifies Shibuda-Heche Saga". Daily News. Retrieved 2 March 2014.
  25. ^ Hombo, Elizabeth (13 August 2014). "Lissu autaka urais 2015". Mtanzania (in Swahili). Dar es Salaam: New Habari (2006) Ltd. Archived from the original on 19 March 2015. Retrieved 5 November 2014. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)
  26. ^ Manson, Katrina (6 December 2012). "Politics: Young activists bring a belief that things must change". Financial Times. Retrieved 2 March 2014.
  27. ^ "SO9E11 with Zitto Kabwe" (Interview) (in Swahili). Interviewed by Salama Jabir. 1 September 2014. {{cite interview}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |trans_title= (help); Unknown parameter |call-sign= ignored (help); Unknown parameter |city= ignored (|location= suggested) (help)
  28. ^ a b Ulimwengu, Jenerali (15 March 2014). "CCM politics sinks to a new low". The EastAfrican. Retrieved 3 September 2014.
  29. ^ a b c Ulimwengu, Jenerali (22 February 2014). "As the race to succeed Kikwete hots up, Lowassa is the man to watch". The EastAfrican. Retrieved 2014-03-16.
  30. ^ Luhanga, Boniface (29 August 2013). "Makinda apigiwa debe urais". Nipashe. IPP Media. Retrieved 3 September 2014. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)
  31. ^ Kimboy, Frank (23 January 2012). "'Migiro factor' fuels 2015 polls debate". The Citizen. Dar es Salaam. Retrieved 2 March 2014.
  32. ^ a b Ernest, Sylivester (5 January 2013). "Membe fuels 2015 election speculation". The Citizen. Lindi. Retrieved 5 July 2014.
  33. ^ Olukya, Godfrey (7 July 2014). "Is Edward Lowassa TZ's next President?". The African Confidential. Retrieved 3 September 2014.
  34. ^ a b "CCM penalises six over premature campaigns". The Guardian. IPP Media. 19 February 2014. Retrieved 2 March 2014.
  35. ^ "Mwinyi's son the CCM candidate". The Indian Ocean Newsletter. 2014-03-07. Retrieved 2014-03-08.
  36. ^ "Race for Ikulu: The Makongoro factor". The Citizen. Dar es Salaam. 8 March 2015. Retrieved 8 March 2015.
  37. ^ KAIJAGE, FLORIAN (4 December 2011). "Prof Mwandosya speaks out". Guardian on Sunday. Dar es Salaam: IPP Media. Retrieved 8 March 2014.
  38. ^ "S11E06 with Mwigulu Nchemba" (Interview) (in Swahili). Interviewed by Salama Jabir. January 2015. Retrieved 8 March 2015. {{cite interview}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |trans_title= (help); Unknown parameter |call-sign= ignored (help); Unknown parameter |city= ignored (|location= suggested) (help)
  39. ^ "Dr Salim: Why I'll not seek top seat again". The Citizen. Dar es Salaam. 27 June 2014. Retrieved 2014-06-28.
  40. ^ Kachenje, Exuper (5 July 2014). "Warioba ataja sifa za rais 2015". Mwananchi (in Swahili). Dar es Salaam. Retrieved 11 July 2014. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)
  41. ^ Magubira, Patty (29 January 2015). "I'm not for presidency: Mwakyembe". The Citizen. Arusha. Retrieved 29 January 2015.
  42. ^ Saramba, Peter (30 December 2012). "Mbowe: Slaa 'the right man for 2015'". The Citizen. Karatu. Retrieved 2 March 2014.
  43. ^ George, Venance (18 February 2013). "Lipumba kugombea urais 2015". Mwananchi (in Swahili). Morogoro. Retrieved 3 September 2014. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)
  44. ^ "Makinda: MPs find the going tough". The Guardian. Njombe: IPP Media. 27 February 2012. Retrieved 5 July 2014.
  45. ^ "Mwandosya: Mungu ameniponya nikawatumikie wananchi" [Mwandosya: God has healed me to serve the citizens]. Majira (in Swahili). 30 April 2015. Retrieved 2 May 2015.
  46. ^ "Zanzibar general election set for October 25". Daily News. Zanzibar. 26 February 2015. Retrieved 19 March 2015.
  47. ^ Masato, Masato (9 September 2014). "Another MP declares interest to vie for presidency". Daily News. Dodoma. Archived from the original on 11 September 2014. Retrieved 11 September 2014. {{cite news}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 29 December 2014 suggested (help)
  48. ^ Rugonzibwa, Pius (10 September 2014). "Hamad keen on presidential post". Daily News. Mwanza. Archived from the original on 11 September 2014. Retrieved 11 September 2014. {{cite news}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 29 December 2014 suggested (help)
  49. ^ Sadallah, Mwinyi (18 October 2014). "Dk Shein apata mpinzani wa urais Zanzibar". Mwanachi (in Swahili). Zanzibar. Retrieved 18 October 2014. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)
  50. ^ Schipper, Youdi; Mushi, Elvis (11 November 2014). Rajani, Rakesh (ed.). "Tanzania towards 2015: Citizen preferences and views on political leadership" (PDF). Dar es Salaam: Twaweza. p. 13. Retrieved 8 December 2014.
  51. ^ "Ripoti ya Utafiti: Vigezo na matarajio ya wananchi katika kufanya maamuzi ya kuchagua viongozi kuelekea Uchaguzi Mkuu 2015, Tanzania" (PDF). Dar es Salaam: Positive Thinkers Tanzania. March 2015. p. 16. Retrieved 30 January 2015. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |1= (help)

External links

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