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faq page

Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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reference 123 doesn't work

....reference 123 is a non-working link —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.14.35.16 (talk) 16:44, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Updated, works again. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 16:50, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Global warming 95% confidence

I wanted to toss up this. The current article states the very likely 90% confidence that human activities are primary cause of global warming. However it seems some are willing to go for 95%

"The study, by senior scientists from the Met Office Hadley Centre, Edinburgh University, Melbourne University and Victoria University in Canada, concluded that there was an “increasingly remote possibility” that the sceptics were right that human activities were having no discernible impact. There was a less than 5 per cent likelihood that natural variations in climate were responsible for the changes."

And

"The study said that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had understated mankind’s overall contribution to climate change."

As 95% is the standard confidence interval cut off for any scientific conclusion, this is essentially saying human activities are the source of global warming/climate change. Not very likely.....

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7050341.ece

--Snowman frosty (talk) 22:24, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I wouldn't want to put too much weight on this one panel. If similar panels report the same general trend--that IPCC has significantly underestimated the role of human activities--then we might want to tweak the article a bit, but it's basically sound for now. --TS 22:36, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

These confidence interval are different from the convention frequency based ones applied with observations that are validated in statistically tested hypothesis. These are simply matters of opinion on a Bayesian probability scale to demonstrate Face validity. The scale is arbitrarily calibrated to whim and the IPCC mission. Your comment indicates this common confusion and this article could be improved with this distinction, I've made this point is the past with sources and it was reverted. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 22:41, 4 March 2010 (UTC) I have yet to see Global Warming be Validity_(statistics) by anything but a panel's face value. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 22:47, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

For reporting something as important as this overall figure, something like the IPCC is the best source. And we shouldn't be reporting the latest news. And it would be necessary to read the actual paper - we wouldn't use the Times's paraphrase, of course William M. Connolley (talk) 23:18, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

~~There are concerns about the methods and conclusions of the IPCC right now. It would be better to go direct to peer reviewed literature. Frendinius (talk) 07:38, 5 March 2010 (UTC)~~[reply]

In other words, it would be better to do our own primary-source research and original synthesis rather than make an objective presentation giving due weight to the relative strength and reliability of the available sources? Frankly I don't imagine that will do, under the WP editorial policies to which I just linked. The IPCC is the definitive secondary source w.r.t. GW because it's comprised of an international contingent selected from among the world's best experts and analysts, from a wide sample of nations. Those directly disputing the IPCCs findings, by comparison, are largely operating by the "hunt and peck" method to criticize specific aspects of the IPCC summary findings and/or to present a distorted overall picture of present-day climate change (read that as: "global warming"). Examples are Fred Singer's Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Nicola Scafetta and the like amongst researchers, Stealth PACs and junk science publications funded by industry, and the Daily Mail and similar tabloids among populist news media. No serious school of academic researchers has emerged in recent years which disputes the essential basic summary facts and statistics of 20th and 21st century climate change that have been put forward by the IPCC. Surely there's a great deal more research and analysis for the global community of climate scientists to work on, but the lack of a serious coherent school of scientists that dispute the IPCC's basic findings means we must give proper weight to their findings--which is what the article has done for at least the past several years. ... Kenosis (talk) 18:43, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

You are right, but Frendinius is blocked as a sock... --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:01, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks. AGF'd and fooled yet again-- and a reasoned response becomes kind of like dancing with myself. Unfortunate how prevalent socks seem to be around here, and the high percentage of everybody's time they seem to take up. See ya' later. ... Kenosis (talk) 19:51, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Kenosis, good point about a "school" of scientists. The Global Warming issue is global, and as such "climate scientists" have a strong role and not the only role in global warming articles. The practical application of journalistic science know as "Editorials" are often discounted at "face value" in these articles. When editors accept many sourced views, then Wikipedia will be a better NPOV because of this. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 20:19, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Journalism is not science, particularly nowadays. More like entertainment with a bizarre set of rules where you sometimes have to tell the truth. @Kenosis: you aren't going to be led wrong AGF'ing - but personally when I feel strongly about what someone says (that they are completely wrong) I hold off a bit because they might be a troll or just an idiot. Either one is mostly a waste of time to reason with. Ignignot (talk) 20:50, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

This source [1] is the closest peer reviewed lit I could find, that links the Pygmalion effect to global warming. The IPCC is a psychological study in face value validly of a global threat. The IPCC mission places a high expectation on the findings. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 16:17, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Modern warming period

"Modern Warming" redirects to this article, so I take it that this article is supposed to be the article covering this climate period. According to this article, the modern warming period started in the "mid-20th century". I'm finding sources, however, that say that the modern warming period started around 1814-1820, around the beginning of the industrial revolution. See here for example (2nd to last paragraph). Is this (the Global warming) article trying to say that there are two warming periods, the modern warming period which began in 1820, and the more recent, extreme "greenhouse" warming period? Cla68 (talk) 22:45, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

CO2Science is not a reliable source. It may amuse you (I know I read Answers in Genesis for the entertainment value occasionally), but it has not value as source of information. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:51, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Please address my question. Here's another source which takes a moderate-to-pro view of AGW science. This source states that the modern warming period may have begun in the mid-to-late 19th century. So, when did the Little Ice Age end, and when did the Modern Warming Period begin, according to the sources? Cla68 (talk) 22:58, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

True that there was a slight warming trend (following the year without a summer from the eruption of Tambora) over the course of the 19th century, which has increased substantially over the 20th century and which accelerated through the latter half of the 20th century continuing into the 21st. See e.g. File:2000 Year Temperature Comparison.png for a quick view. The most reliable sources say GW started in the 20th century; Also, the IPCC, notably, has advanced figures starting in the middle of the 20th Century (starting after a brief cooling trend in the late 40s), as seen in the lead. Thus far the consensus of WP editors here seems to have been to use both the "over the course of the 20th" and the "since the mid-20th figures. ... Kenosis (talk) 23:04, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

OK, that seems reasonable. So, why doesn't the article explain this? The article appears to jump immediately into explaining the Greenhouse theories on recent warming, and ignores the general warming that occurred since the late 19th century to the mid-20th century when many scientists believe that greenhouse gasses started to be a factor. Cla68 (talk) 23:09, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I guess the article doesn't 'explain' it because the authoritative sources are vague on the subject, indicating that little is known about any exact starting date. Sometimes the talkative ones with the easiest ready answers are actually the ones that know least about something, and the wise keep quieter, until there is something to say. --Nigelj (talk) 19:25, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Scafetta etc on solar variation

I reverted this edit mainly because I think the detail article ought to be used to deal with issues of weight and whatnot, prior to incorporating summarised content back here. --TS 22:05, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

That, plus S+W is a bad paper William M. Connolley (talk) 23:22, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

So this is what Connolley means by 'discussion' (see below)? Were there some cogent critique accompanying your remarks about a published paper in a respected journal one might have some respect for your POV.Dikstr (talk) 12:45, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

~~::The paper is fine, and the conclusions are appropriate here. Frendinius (talk) 07:39, 5 March 2010 (UTC)~~Confirmed Scibaby sockpuppet~~~~ [reply]

If that is so, the paper should be integrated into solar variation and, if appropriate, summarized here. Starting here isputting the cast before the horse. Sorry but we've had problems of undue weight in this article many times. Everybody wants to add their favorite hobby horse. Tasty monster (TS on one of those new fangled telephone thingies) 07:51, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
D, and socks, keeps reverting. Is there some reason why he doesn't want to discuss stuff here? It is hard to have a one-sided discussion William M. Connolley (talk) 23:54, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I noticed that this information has been the subject of some edit warring. The information seems to be reliably sourced. What is the objection to the information? Cla68 (talk) 01:12, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
It might belong in Solar variation. We might be able to shoehorn a passing mention of it into here, but I'm hesitant because the present article already gives solar variation considerably more emphasis than its representation in the literature. There's nothing outstanding about the Scafetta and Willson paper such that it requires prominence beyond other papers on the same topic. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:33, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
~~(Following an edit conflict)~~
~~Due weight.~~
~~The edit warring, such as it was, was in large measure due to a banned troll and an editor later blocked for his disruptive editing.~~
Please discuss that information at talk:solar variation, with a view to discussing the relevance and weight of this rather new paper. Relevant questions would include: which subsequent papers cite that one? If the paper is believed to be significant enough to include in that article, it may be worth discussing whether it should be included in the summary of the influence of solar variation on the climate in this article. --TS 01:36, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Funny, the source with a declared mission for human influenced changes is considered reliable on solar variation. Where is the NPOV on that point? There are COI questions about the source presented for the existing statement. The single IPCC source, may not meet the requirement for reliable source here on this point. Seems questionable to me. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 02:07, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Are you talking about Scafetta and Wilson, or some entirely different paper? --TS 02:10, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I can't quite decipher what ZP5 is trying to say here. Can someone clarify? Does his mention of COI refer to Willson citing his own paper? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:12, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
~~I suspect, the IPCC is a wp:sps and therefor questionable on this point. The existing statement must be balanced for a NPOV. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 02:31, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]~~
Very droll. I begin to spot a reason why so many editors of global warming articles fail to discern anything especially and obviously tendentious about Scibaby's nonsense. --TS 02:32, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Was that intended to be PA, or can you address the wp:sps issue for the IPCC. I have't seen evidence of editorial oversight on there single purpose publications. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 02:39, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
If you "have't seen evidence of editorial oversight" you must not have looked. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:44, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I looked and best I can tell, the process stops with the IPCC. Sorry if I am wrong, but the IPCC is a highly organized but questionable source. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 02:49, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
OK, I'm invoking Rule 5 from here onward. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:57, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Ok, I am glad you agree on this point. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 03:02, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
OK, please correct me if I'm wrong, but no one here is disputing the veracity or sourcing of the added information, just that it fails UNDUE. Checking the edit again, it seems to be just one sentence, "Recent empirical analyses confirm potentially significant variations of solar luminosity on climate timescales and indicate the contribution of solar forcing may be underestimated by current climate models." So, how does a single sentence violate UNDUE? Cla68 (talk) 03:04, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Should we have a single sentence on every paper that has been published on climate change? I would argue that instead we should summarize the overall state of the topic, focusing on the majority view and giving due attention to significant minority views, with enough representative citations to each that the reader can verify our coverage. Particularly notable contributions to the field can get specific mention. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:25, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

~~:I don't see why mentioning the results outlined in Scafetta and Wilson is "undue weight". What is the criteria for determining weight? Jinnus (talk) 06:26, 7 March 2010 (UTC)~~[confirmed scibaby sock Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:54, 7 March 2010 (UTC)][reply]

You're missing the point that SBHB is trying to get over to you. We already talk too much about SV. We can add S+W, but which bit of the existing SV stuff will you take out to compensate? Please make a proposal here William M. Connolley (talk) 09:43, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
SBHB is saying that the information represents only one opinion on the influence of solar activity, and is therefore not noteworthy enough to be mentioned in this article. As long as it is mentioned in the Solar Activity article, then it's probably ok. If any other, independent research support those findings, however, then I would think it's important enough to mention in this article. Cla68 (talk) 12:42, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
There needs to be MORE material on solar variation in this article. It is an issue of debate and research within the climat7e science community, and therefore should be highlighted with more references. Jinsnus (talk) 15:27, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[confirmed scibaby sock Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:55, 7 March 2010 (UTC)][reply]
Yes, for example .. the S&W authors report 10-30% for just solar variation contribution since 1980 to temperture increases while the IPCC reports 5 to 10% for all natural source attribution of climate change. There is a disconnect between Logic A and Logic B to verify these claims. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 15:54, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
First, do you have a concrete source for this claim? And secondly, you do know that there are other natural sources, like e.g. volcanos, that are negative, right? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 16:14, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

~~The sceptics here should read this paper. This is almost as model independent as you can get. Count Iblis (talk) 16:26, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]~~
Here's a pdf version of the whole Verdes paper, the abstract of which Count Iblis just linked-to. Perhaps needless to say, we shouldn't be using primary sources such as S&W and Verdes in this article. From the text of the policy WP:PSTS:
Wikipedia articles should be based on reliable, published secondary sources and, to a lesser extent, on tertiary sources. Secondary or tertiary sources are needed to establish the topic's notability and to avoid novel interpretations of primary sources, though primary sources are permitted if used carefully. All interpretive claims, analyses, or synthetic claims about primary sources must be referenced to a secondary source, rather than original analysis of the primary-source material by Wikipedia editors.
and,
Any interpretation of primary source material requires a reliable secondary source for that interpretation. A primary source can be used only to make descriptive statements that can be verified by any educated person without specialist knowledge.
Neither Scafetta and West's paper nor Verdes' paper seem to me to meet these criteria, nor does it seem thus far that there exists a body of reliable secondary-source literature analyzing, double-checking and summarizing the respective scenarios proposed by these just-mentioned authors. Nor does it seem to me we have that much additional space in an already lengthy WP:Summary style article to include every one-off publication pro or con w.r.t. this complex topic. Which is why we rely mainly on reliable secondary sources, e.g. the IPCC, CRU, and various other secondary-source publications. ... Kenosis (talk) 20:04, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The IPCC's self-published opinion is subject to Climate change exaggeration particularly when their Bayesian interpretation exceeds the modeled attributions. They have an invalid assumption on their opinion scale at the face of their measure, they painted themselves into an overconfident corner by setting a confidence higher than others have modeled for solar activity. It's like saying their opinion carries more weight than the primary sources. With this method, the IPCC will remain a questionable source; because 1 + 2 = 3 no mater what the IPCC psychometrics measures say. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 21:56, 7 March 2010 (UTC)^{[Inappropriate under WP:TPG - Tag by ZP5, cause KDP claims soap boxing [2].]}[reply]
~~Kenosis, I agree. My point is merely that ZuluPapa5 & co. should read the paper by Verdes. Count Iblis (talk) 22:09, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]~~
A current, peer-reviewed research paper is a primary source only in the most perverse Wikipedia interpretation. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:46, 7 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Even if it is a primary source, I personally don't usually object to primary sources being used. Cla68 (talk) 00:09, 8 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I got into a highly unfortunate massively heated argument over this a while ago ago: it needs to be clarified because WP:RS says both that peer-reviewed papers are favored and that they are primary sources (=! bad). I certainly will vehemently oppose anything that says that we shouldn't favor peer-reviewed sources over others. Add that to the to-do list. Awickert (talk) 19:40, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I added the information to the Solar variation article since it appeared that no one had gotten around to doing it yet. If someone had already added, I apologize for not seeing it. Cla68 (talk) 00:23, 8 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Since it's already on the GW talk page, a brief response: If you look in the paragraph directly above what you just added at Solar variation, you'll see Scafetta's work mentioned in the context of research that directly addresses and contradicts Scafetta's work. The 2007 paper is already in another footnote (refname="Scafetta07"? or something like that). Maybe move the sentence up into the previous paragraph where Scafetta's hypothesis is already mentioned-- something to the effect that "A 2009 paper by Scafetta repeated the assertion that the contribution of solar forcing may be underestimated by current climate models, reiterating that there have been significant variations of solar luminosity on climate timescales.^[13]" citing to the 2009 paper. Scafetta's slant is mentioned in at least a couple places in that article. ... Kenosis (talk) 00:54, 8 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Echo Kenosis, and Scafetta's work is pretty much rejected by the larger community (for various reasons, see comments on papers). Awickert (talk) 19:40, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
That's vague criticism. Since Scafetta's work is new many climatologists are unfamiliar with it. Others have have insufficient familiarity with it to find objective fault. Dikstr (talk) 00:27, 10 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
It seems to me we can't have it both ways. If it's well known in climatology circles then climatologists will have an opinion on it, but if it isn't well known it doesn't seem likely to merit inclusion in Wikipedia. --TS 00:36, 10 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
~~Solar variation article~~
~~The following discussion budded off from #Scafetta etc on solar variation~~
~~The solar variation article could do with some cleanup William M. Connolley (talk) 19:54, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]~~
Agreed, in the sources it seems solar variation parametrization was ignored for global climate model machinations. Maybe something to do with Moore's law beginning in 1980 and then it's correlates and associated to the Hockey Stick seen in temperature trends. — Preceding unsigned comment added by ZuluPapa5 (talk • contribs) 21:18, 9 March 2010 (UTC) Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 17:04, 10 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
That comment seems a bit soap-boxish to me. It's certainly an extreme minority viewpoint, whatever else it is. --TS 21:27, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

By coincidence I just left a note related to ZP5's first sentence on Talk:Solar variation. ZuluPapa5, if you look here, you'll note that the IPCC did indeed consider solar variability very seriously, allowing for the possibility of underestimates of the extent of solar forcing. ... Kenosis (talk) 21:32, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Thanks K! ... TS, a fringe read into the sources it is. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 21:37, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Pardon? Could you explain what you mean, since i have difficulty in understanding your comment. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 22:05, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Apologies, where are you having difficulty KDP? This statement responds to Kenosis's and Tony Sidaway's above. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 22:15, 9 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I have a problem understanding it. What does "a fringe read into" mean? (it doesn't make any sense) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 07:44, 10 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I had a peek and I believe, though I could be mistaken, that when Zulu Papa 5 mentioned "fringe read into" something he meant reading into the material that was specifically trying to interpret it from a fringe perspective as opposed to the original intentions of that material. I.E. - "Twisting words" or "Colorful interpretation". 72.192.46.9 (talk) 13:38, 10 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Still don't get it - it doesn't make sense in the context of his comment. Kenosis gave him a link to AR4 Chapter 9 with no interpretation at all. In fact i have to say that i find ZP5's comments here almost impossible to read (Moore's law - huh?) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:10, 10 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
~~FAIL!!!!! —Preceding unsigned comment added by 64.8.187.97 (talk) 19:44, 10 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]~~
Myself having some brief time on my hands at the moment, and this thread being part of a recurring theme in the CC-article discussions, the following is intended to supplement what WP users William J. Connolley, Tony Sidaway, ShortBrigadeHarvesterBoris, Stephan Shulz and perhaps others, seem to me to have been trying to point out w.r.t. Scafetta, Haigh and the like. It occurs to me that some of the participating WP editors might be seeking to advocate maximum possible inclusion of alternative POVs into the climate-change articles that put forward the hypothesis that non-anthropogenic causes (or call them "natural" if you prefer) are far more "to blame" for current global warming than has been asserted by the published statements of the IPCC, CRC, and other reliable sources which put forward similar analyses and conclusions about present-day global warming. If in fact this concern about balancing the POVs of the IPCC, CRC and other supporting reliable sources with an opposing POV is held by any participating editors, then I easily imagine it might seem to be quite important to advocate that the speculations of, e.g., Scafetta, West, Wilson and Haigh, merit inclusion in a more conspicuous and assertive way so as to balance the various POVs in the climate-change articles. Assuming of course that any of my speculation here is correct, the conceptual problem I have with this approach is that it's already long been clear (or should by now have long been clear to participating editors who've actually done their "homework") that the IPCC and CRC and other reliable sources which have published reliable summaries of the present scientific consensus have already factored in the possibility of underestimates of solar forcing as a contributing cause of current global warming.
...... Without going to great lengths to quote "book, chapter and verse" of the IPCC and other reliable summary sources about present-day GW at the moment, it seems to me that it should already have been obvious to any participating editors who've actually read those sources that the IPCC has diligently attempted to make clear, at least to serious readers of their material, that their conclusion is that the effects of variations in solar forcing is believed by the scientific community to be capable of being reliably differentiated from the effects of variations in the amount of "greenhouse gasses" such as CO2 and methane. The method of differentiating between solar variation and GHG variation is actually fairly straightforward if one is not predisposed to look for reasons to avoid what the IPCC says in its statements. As it happens, the effects of greenhouse gases are readily differentiated from the effects of solar forcing and other extraterrestrial forcing by noting the changes in temperature both below and above the altitude at which the GHGs are most influential (roughly the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere). As has been known by the community of climate scientists for many years now, the relative influence of solar forcing vis-a-vis GHGs can be ascertained by determining whether there has been a measurable increase in temperature throughout the entire atmosphere right up to the exosphere. By contrast, the influence of increases in GHGs can be ascertained by a temperature increase in the troposphere, with a concurrent decrease in temperature in the upper atmosphere above the tropopause. In fact, the latter is what has been found to date-- that is to say, the measurements of atmospheric temperatures have clearly indicated an increase in temperatures in the troposphere and a decrease in temperatures in the higher regions of the atmosphere. An increase in GHGs would account for this, while an increase in solar forcing would not. Thus, Scafetta and Co.'s assertions are indeed, as has been pointed out by several other editors of the WP CC-related articles, an outlier in the range of current scientific reasoning w.r.t GW. ... Kenosis (talk) 06:26, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

~~Gallup results on AGW theory~~
That suggests we need to improve the Simple-Wikipedia article on Global Warming. Count Iblis (talk) 14:22, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Useless, see Dunning–Kruger effect. It's the bane of public discourse that simple but wrong arguments often have more appeal than complex relationships that need some effort to present and even more to understand. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 14:32, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Just as with tobacco and evolution, teach the controversy is an effective strategy when the facts are against you. (Sorry for responding to a Scibaby thread.) Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:40, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Better science education in (primary) school could help. E.g. you get a decent eduction in history in primary and secondary school and that shields most people from Neo-Nazi propaganda. In contrast, you get a very poor education about fundamental physics in school. Of course, you can't teach that in detail like we do at university, but the basic facts can be mentioned in school. Uri Geller could not claim to be able to bend spoons and earn millions with his tricks if most people knew about the limits on new forces. I think Wikipedia can play a role in explaining basic fundamental science better to the general public. Count Iblis (talk) 15:02, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Yup. 'Teach the controversy' may be what some people are trying to do, but we must stick to RS and due weight, so that we maintain good coverage of the science, and the facts, here. --Nigelj (talk) 15:12, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
~~FAQ Q22 needs rework~~
It is out of compliance with WP:RS. See Section 2.1(4), reliability of individual papers is not to be determined by citations, impact, or impact factor. Back to the drawing board! TMLutas (talk) 18:04, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
If the reliable sources guideline has been changed in such a manner as to imply that the neutral point of view policy must be overridden, then it is the reliable sources guideline which must be changed. We do not and shall not insert references to new scientific papers until we have a basis on which to judge their acceptance as individual sources within the scientific community. If somebody has told you different, that person misinformed you on the operation of Wikipedia and the relationship between guidelines and policies. Tasty monster (TS on one of those new fangled telephone thingies) 18:14, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
TS, please can the straw man. WP:RS has not been changed in the manner you describe. The change simply clarified that individual papers should not be scored for reliability using citation index scores, the so called "impact factor" standard. This has always been a very problematic standard that has raised lots of controversy in the academic community because those index scores are subject to manipulation. In fact, there's a lot of hot talk about how climate change index scores in particular have been actually manipulated (part of the fallout from climategate) so it's relevant to this topic.
If you want to change WP:RS, you are as welcome as I was to suggest and gain consensus for an improved version of 2.1(4). Until that happens, FAQ Q22 should either be reworked to be WP:RS compliant or entirely pulled. Further discussion on changing/improving WP:RS really should go into that talk page. TMLutas (talk) 18:26, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Perhaps the FAQ Q22 needs revision to remove the link to a WT:IRS section where TMLutas seems to have jumped to a conclusion unsupported by the comments of other editors. As stated above, any such addition should not be given undue weight, and reliable evidence is required of its significance in the field. As for the fourth bullet point in WP:RS Section 2.1, what part of "Isolated studies are usually considered tentative and may change in the light of further academic research. The reliability of a single study depends on the field. Studies relating to complex and abstruse fields, such as medicine, are less definitive. Avoid undue weight when using single studies in such fields. Meta-analyses, textbooks, and scholarly review articles are preferred when available, so as to provide proper context." do you think conflicts in any way with the FAQ? . . dave souza, talk 18:33, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
If you would actually read the prior round discussion in archives Talk:Global warming/Archive_57#FAQ_A22_edit_war et seq, you would realize that Q22 is not about isolated studies (2.1(5)) but rather waiting on using a study in order to determine impact which is handled in 2.1(4) the immediately prior section. Such waits used to be implicitly disallowed but the language was admittedly clumsy. No more. TMLutas (talk) 18:54, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
So Q22 is still supported by the reliable sources guideline? Okay, great. The rest of this thread appears to be an attempt to abuse Wikipediaa as a forum to spread a conspiracy theory to explain the dearth of scientific papers supporting fringe views. Tasty monster (TS on one of those new fangled telephone thingies) 18:46, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Q22 is not supported by WP:RS. The relevant section is 2.1, 4th bullet point which explicitly disallows calculating impact. For those who have not followed the full conversation, this round started in discussion over at global cooling on the inclusion there of a 2010 peer reviewed paper asserting global cooling. Yes, one actually exists out there (actually a couple do), something that I thought was novel enough to try to get into global cooling.
TS asserted the relevance of FAQ Q22 on this page which, much to my surprise, nobody had caught was no longer even possibly in compliance with WP:RS so I decided to also come over here to fix this issue as well. The whole application of impact factors to individual papers *is* controversial, especially with regards to funding but also elsewhere. It is part of my intent to steer Wikipedia clear of the conspiracy theories TS refers to. To that end I've been seeking (and got) clarification that citation index scores (otherwise known as impact factor) do not apply to individual papers. FAQ Q22 takes a different view, endorsing the controversial concept of impact. Changes to WP:RS should be discussed there. Changes to Q22 should be discussed here. If you want to weigh in on the underlying paper, feel free to migrate over to global cooling and be aware that even most CAGW skeptics don't think we're actually undergoing global cooling. Some international scientists do disagree but it is a very minority position. TMLutas (talk) 19:16, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
~~Why would we want to include information that is not yet proven to be accepted science? This isn't about impact factor: this is to be correct. Awickert (talk) 19:05, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]~~
Please define your term as "accepted science" doesn't appear in the text of WP:RS. Manifestly, Wikipedia includes coverage of science terms that are incorrect. One blatant example is phrenology. TMLutas (talk) 19:16, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

In the opening comment of this section, TMLutas says that the guideline WP:RS asserts that: reliability of individual papers is not to be determined by citations, impact, or impact factor, referring to the 4th bullet point in WP:RS#Scholarship. But the guideline page doesn't say what TMLutas says it says. The fourth bullet point in the pertinent section of the WP:RS guideline, WP:RS#Scholarship, reads:

The scholarly acceptance of a source can be verified by confirming that the source has entered mainstream academic discourse, for example by checking the number of scholarly citations it has received in citation indexes. A corollary is that journals not included in a citation index, especially in fields well covered by such indexes, should be used with caution, though whether it is appropriate to use will depend on the context. Individual papers are not considered reliable or unreliable based on citation index scores.

It might also be useful to take an extra moment and read all five bullet points. in any event, it seems to me the most relevant policies here are WP:SOURCES, WP:WEIGHT and WP:PSTS. FAQ 22 appears to me to be consistent with both the letter and the spirit of these policies, as well as that of all five of the bullet points in the guideline WP:RS#Scholarship. ... Kenosis (talk) 20:27, 11 March 2010 (UTC) [reply]

The extensive discussion on F22 in the previous round made it clear that the only nail the writers wanted to hang their hat on was requiring a waiting period to calculate whether a paper had sufficient impact, specifically via citations and specifically using 2.1(4). Other possible mechanisms were examined and (unwisely in my opinion) discarded. I personally offered a like method using WP:WEIGHT so I am sympathetic to your stated position but my alternative was rejected. There was a particular effect desired by the majority, it was justified by a particular interpretation of a very specific section, and alternatives were disallowed. Supporters of the present A22 are stuck with the narrow justification of 2.1(4) because, believe me, everything else either doesn't fit, gives a like but not identical result, or has been rejected (or some combination of all three). Now that this section disallows impact scoring pro or con (and yes, that's the edit's intent, I wrote it) A22 simply doesn't work. I was willing to live and let live right up to the point where someone, once again, tried to apply Q22 to a different page, global cooling, an exercise that I thought was dubious the first time around but doubly so with the multi-week debate and consensus edit that this sort of thing shouldn't happen. So here I am once again dealing with the issue on this page.
Let me repeat my position from last time. I'm open to some sort of FAQ point on excluding new papers so long as there's some sort of rule or guideline that actually supports the exclusion mechanism. After an extensive review, I've come to the conclusion that this does not, in fact, exist and that the majority on this page supporting A22 as it is written is a local majority that does not reflect the wider community consensus and the results have been suboptimal. Rather than going the sanctions route, I'm patiently trying to get Q22 redone in a rules compliant way with the anticipated result being more climate skeptic friendly but more importantly a more friendly editing process throughout the climate science space. For entirely legitimate weight reasons most of this stuff will not end up accepted directly into this page. Instead such papers will go into specialty pages like global cooling and then if evidence accumulates summaries of the relevant specialty page will go into this article. I frankly care more about the even-handed application of wider community norms than anything specifically regarding catastrophic anthropogenic global warming. The truth will out if the rules are well applied. The rules are not currently applied well via FAQ Q22. TMLutas (talk) 21:12, 11 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

[Powell2019-1] Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.

[WMO-FAQS-2] "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.

[3] Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)

[4] Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[5] Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[6] Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[7] Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[8] "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.

[9] Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.

[10] The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.

[11] "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.

[12] Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.

[13] The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.

[14] "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}

[15] Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.

[16] Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.

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[18] Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.

[19] Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.

[20] Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.

[21] Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

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@@ Line 231: / Line 231: @@
 In the opening comment of this section, TMLutas says that the guideline WP:RS asserts that: ''reliability of individual papers is not to be determined by citations, impact, or impact factor'', referring to the 4th bullet point in [[WP:RS#Scholarship]]. But the guideline page doesn't say what TMLutas says it says. The fourth bullet point in the pertinent section of the WP:RS guideline, [[WP:RS#Scholarship]], reads: <blockquote>''The scholarly acceptance of a source can be verified by confirming that the source has entered mainstream academic discourse, for example by checking the number of scholarly citations it has received in [[citation index]]es. A corollary is that journals not included in a citation index, especially in fields well covered by such indexes, should be used with caution, though whether it is appropriate to use will depend on the context. Individual papers are not considered reliable or unreliable based on citation index scores.''</blockquote> It might also be useful to take an extra moment and read all five bullet points. in any event, it seems to me the most relevant policies here are [[WP:SOURCES]], [[WP:WEIGHT]] and [[WP:PSTS]]. FAQ 22 appears to me to be consistent with both the letter and the spirit of these policies, as well as that of all five of the bullet points in the guideline [[WP:RS#Scholarship]]. ... [[User:Kenosis|Kenosis]] ([[User talk:Kenosis|talk]]) 20:27, 11 March 2010 (UTC)
+:The extensive discussion on F22 in the previous round made it clear that the only nail the writers wanted to hang their hat on was requiring a waiting period to calculate whether a paper had sufficient impact, specifically via citations and specifically using 2.1(4). Other possible mechanisms were examined and (unwisely in my opinion) discarded. I personally offered a like method using [[WP:WEIGHT]] so I am sympathetic to your stated position but my alternative was rejected. There was a particular effect desired by the majority, it was justified by a particular interpretation of a very specific section, and alternatives were disallowed. Supporters of the present A22 are stuck with the narrow justification of 2.1(4) because, believe me, everything else either doesn't fit, gives a like but not identical result, or has been rejected (or some combination of all three). Now that this section disallows impact scoring pro or con (and yes, that's the edit's intent, I wrote it) A22 simply doesn't work. I was willing to live and let live right up to the point where someone, once again, tried to apply Q22 to a different page, [[global cooling]], an exercise that I thought was dubious the first time around but doubly so with the multi-week debate and consensus edit that this sort of thing shouldn't happen. So here I am once again dealing with the issue on this page.
+: Let me repeat my position from last time. I'm open to some sort of FAQ point on excluding new papers so long as there's some sort of rule or guideline that actually supports the exclusion mechanism. After an extensive review, I've come to the conclusion that this does not, in fact, exist and that the majority on this page supporting A22 as it is written is a local majority that does not reflect the wider community consensus and the results have been suboptimal. Rather than going the sanctions route, I'm patiently trying to get Q22 redone in a rules compliant way with the anticipated result being more climate skeptic friendly but more importantly a more friendly editing process throughout the climate science space. For entirely legitimate weight reasons most of this stuff will not end up accepted directly into this page. Instead such papers will go into specialty pages like global cooling and then if evidence accumulates summaries of the relevant specialty page will go into this article. I frankly care more about the even-handed application of wider community norms than anything specifically regarding catastrophic anthropogenic global warming. The truth will out if the rules are well applied. The rules are not currently applied well via FAQ Q22. [[User:TMLutas|TMLutas]] ([[User talk:TMLutas|talk]]) 21:12, 11 March 2010 (UTC)