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* {{circa}} 9,000 (Ahmad Massoud's forces; self-claim)<ref name="france24-220821" />
* {{circa}} 9,000 (Ahmad Massoud's forces; self-claim)<ref name="france24-220821" />
Unknown number of independent militias<ref name="france24-220821" />
Unknown number of independent militias<ref name="france24-220821" />
| casualties1 = {{flagdeco|Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan}} 15 killed, 15 wounded <small>(Taliban claim)</small><ref>{{Cite news|title=Anti-Taliban fighters claim victories as first stirrings of armed resistance emerge|language=en-US|work=Washington Post|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/anti-taliban-fighters-claim-victories-as-first-stirrings-of-armed-resistance-emerge/2021/08/20/24b433fc-01da-11ec-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html|access-date=2021-08-24|issn=0190-8286|quote=... a tweet from a pro-Taliban account claimed the clashes killed 15 Taliban and wounded 15, and that the Taliban was betrayed after offering amnesty to locals}}</ref><ref name="nyt15">{{Cite news|last=Rosenberg|first=Matthew|date=2021-08-21|title=Resistance fighters drive Taliban from 3 districts in the mountains north of Kabul.|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/21/world/asia/resistance-fighters-taliban-afghanistan.html|access-date=2021-08-24|issn=0362-4331|quote=The fighters claimed to have killed as many as 30 Taliban and captured nearly two dozen more. A pro-Taliban Twitter account put the militants’ death toll at half that number.}}</ref><br />{{flagdeco|Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan}} 30–300 killed <small>(Panjshir resistance claim)</small><ref name="nyt15" /><ref>{{Cite web|date=2021-08-23|title=Watch: Taliban sends hundreds of fighters to Resistance stronghold Panjshir|url=https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/watch-taliban-sends-hundreds-of-fighters-to-resistance-stronghold-panjshir-what-ahmad-massoud-said-101629715632369.html|access-date=2021-08-24|website=Hindustan Times|language=en|quote=Reports on social media claimed that around 300 Taliban fighters had been killed by resistance forces.}}</ref>
| casualties1 = {{flagdeco|Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan}} unknown killed, unknown wounded <small>(Taliban claim)</small><ref>{{Cite news|title=Anti-Taliban fighters claim victories as first stirrings of armed resistance emerge|language=en-US|work=Washington Post|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/anti-taliban-fighters-claim-victories-as-first-stirrings-of-armed-resistance-emerge/2021/08/20/24b433fc-01da-11ec-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html|access-date=2021-08-24|issn=0190-8286|quote=... a tweet from a pro-Taliban account claimed the clashes killed 15 Taliban and wounded 15, and that the Taliban was betrayed after offering amnesty to locals}}</ref><ref name="nyt15">{{Cite news|last=Rosenberg|first=Matthew|date=2021-08-21|title=Resistance fighters drive Taliban from 3 districts in the mountains north of Kabul.|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/21/world/asia/resistance-fighters-taliban-afghanistan.html|access-date=2021-08-24|issn=0362-4331|quote=The fighters claimed to have killed as many as 30 Taliban and captured nearly two dozen more. A pro-Taliban Twitter account put the militants’ death toll at half that number.}}</ref><br />{{flagdeco|Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan}} 30–300 killed <small>(Panjshir resistance claim)</small><ref name="nyt15" /><ref>{{Cite web|date=2021-08-23|title=Watch: Taliban sends hundreds of fighters to Resistance stronghold Panjshir|url=https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/watch-taliban-sends-hundreds-of-fighters-to-resistance-stronghold-panjshir-what-ahmad-massoud-said-101629715632369.html|access-date=2021-08-24|website=Hindustan Times|language=en|quote=Reports on social media claimed that around 300 Taliban fighters had been killed by resistance forces.}}</ref>
| casualties2 = {{flagdeco|Islamic Republic of Afghanistan}} 1 killed, 6 wounded <small>(Panjshir resistance claim)</small><ref name="ITWDAB">{{Cite web|author=India Today Web Desk|title=Taliban district chief, 50 insurgents killed in fight with Afghan resistance in Andarab|url=https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/taliban-district-chief-50-insurgents-die-in-fight-with-afghan-resistance-1844329-2021-08-23|access-date=2021-08-24|website=India Today|language=en|quote=Meanwhile, one member of the resistance was killed and six were wounded.}}</ref>
| casualties2 = {{flagdeco|Islamic Republic of Afghanistan}} unknown killed, unknown wounded <small>(Panjshir resistance claim)</small><ref name="ITWDAB">{{Cite web|author=India Today Web Desk|title=Taliban district chief, 50 insurgents killed in fight with Afghan resistance in Andarab|url=https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/taliban-district-chief-50-insurgents-die-in-fight-with-afghan-resistance-1844329-2021-08-23|access-date=2021-08-24|website=India Today|language=en|quote=Meanwhile, one member of the resistance was killed and six were wounded.}}</ref>
| casualties3 =
| casualties3 =
| notes =
| notes =

Revision as of 20:18, 31 August 2021

Panjshir conflict
Part of the Afghanistan conflict (1978–present)

Map of land reportedly controlled by the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (in blue), based around the Panjshir Valley
(See a more detailed map of the current military situation in Afghanistan.)
Date17 August 2021 – present
Location
Status Ceasefire[2][3]
Belligerents
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Commanders and leaders
Hibatullah Akhundzada
Mohammad Yaqoob
Abdul Ghani Baradar
Qari Fasihuddin[4]
Amrullah Saleh
Ahmad Massoud
Bismillah Khan
Ahmad Zia Massoud[5]
Yasin Zia[6]
Fahim Dashty[7]
Hamid Saifi[7]
Units involved

Islamic Defence Force of Afghanistan

  • Islamic Army of Afghanistan
Various pro-Taliban militias

Remnants of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)

Various anti-Taliban militias

  • Ahmad Massoud's militia[8]
  • Independent militias outside Panjshir[10]
Strength
60,000–260,000 in Taliban armed forces, unknown how many were fighting.

2,000–10,000 (Panjshir resistance; estimates)[11]

  • c. 9,000 (Ahmad Massoud's forces; self-claim)[10]
Unknown number of independent militias[10]
Casualties and losses
unknown killed, unknown wounded (Taliban claim)[12][13]
30–300 killed (Panjshir resistance claim)[13][14]
unknown killed, unknown wounded (Panjshir resistance claim)[15]

The Panjshir conflict is a conflict between the heavily diminished Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, including the Panjshir resistance, and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (controlled by the Taliban).[16] It began on 17 August 2021 following the Fall of Kabul and Amrullah Saleh assuming the Afghan presidency and declaring the resistance.[17][18] Ten days later, both sides declared a ceasefire and agreed to solve all problems through dialogue.[2]

Background

The former Islamic Republic of Afghanistan exercises de facto control over the Panjshir Valley, which is largely contiguous with Panjshir Province and according to The Week, as of August 2021 is "the only region out of [the] Taliban's hands".[19]

The population of the Panjshir valley consists of a majority of ethnic Tajik people, while the majority of the Taliban are Pashtuns.[8]

The valley is well known for its natural defences. Surrounded by the Hindu Kush mountains, Panjshir never fell to the Soviets during the invasion of the 1980s nor to the Taliban during the civil war of the 1990s.[8]

Saleh and Massoud announcements

On 17 August 2021, Saleh—citing provisions of the Constitution of Afghanistan—declared himself President of Afghanistan from the Panjshir Valley, and vowed to continue military operations against the Taliban from there.[20] His claim to the presidency was endorsed by Ahmad Massoud and Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Minister of Defence Bismillah Khan Mohammadi along with the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in Dushanbe.[20][6] On 23 August 2021, Massoud made contact with unnamed American lawmakers.[21]

Disposition of forces

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and anti-Taliban militias

Prior to the fall of Kabul, Panjshiris began moving military equipment from surrounding areas, including helicopters and armored vehicles, into Panjshir Province.[22] There, they were joined by Afghan National Army commanders and soldiers, including commandos,[22][23] ex-Mujahideen who had previously served Ahmad Massoud's late father, Ahmad Shah Massoud, and other anti-Taliban activists.[7] Most of them regrouped at Baghlan Province's Andarab District before moving to Panjshir after making their escape from Kunduz, Badakhshan, Takhar, and Baghlan.[24] According to a Russian estimate, the disparate Anti-Taliban forces had approximately 7,000 personnel under arms as of mid August 2021.[25] Other estimates place this number as low as 2,000, though Saleh himself claims 10,000 men under arms.[11] By 22 August 2021, Ahmad Massoud claimed to have gathered about 9,000 fighters and at least a "handful of armoured humvees" in the valley.[10]

There are difference between the forces loyal to Saleh and those loyal to Ahmad Massoud, as the former is hardcore anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistani, whereas the latter maintained good relations with Pakistan which was supportive of the Taliban. As a result, Massoud was more willing to negiotiate with the Taliban.[10] By 22 August 2021, the resistance also confirmed that several local militias had begun to fight the Taliban on their own, independent of the Panjshir-based forces.[10] According to Yasin Zia, the resistance has already secured access to five helicopters formerly used by the Afghan military.[9][26]

On 23 August 2021, it was reported that BM-21 Grads were acquired as a part of its arsenal.[21]

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

An estimate by the Combating Terrorism Center at the US Military Academy made prior to the Fall of Kabul estimated the strength of the Taliban, throughout the whole of Afghanistan, at 60,000 armed cadre supported by up to 200,000 irregulars.[27] Due to the rapid capitulation of the Afghan National Army, the Taliban have since acquired substantial materiel of US manufacture, including armored vehicles and combat aircraft.[28]

Timeline

Around 17 August 2021, remnants of the Afghan National Army began massing in the Panjshir Valley at the urging of Massoud,[19][29] along with local civilians who had responded to his mobilization calls.[30] At the time, the Panjshir Valley was—according to one observer—"under siege on all sides" but had not come under direct attack.[31] On 18 August 2021, the number of admissions for war injuries was increasing at the Emergency Surgical Centre for War Victims in Anabah in Panjshir.[32][33] By 22 August, Ahmad Massoud's forces were mostly focused on defending Panjshir as well as training.[10]

On 18 August 2021, local reports from Parwan Province reported that Saleh's forces had taken Charikar from Taliban fighters stationed in the area.[24][34] In addition, there are reports of gunfights taking place near Salang Pass.[35][24] On the following day, videos were released which showcased local fighters with flags of the old, anti-Taliban Northern Alliance parading through the streets of Charikar.[36]

On 20 August 2021, anti-Taliban fighters reportedly recaptured Andarab, Puli Hisar and Dih Salah districts in Baghlan Province with the Taliban claiming 15 of its soldiers had been killed, while other sources reported that up to 60 Taliban fighters were killed or injured,[37][38][39] and two dozen captured. The three districts had reportedly experienced a revolt, led by a local police chief, after Taliban had conducted unpopular house-to-house searches.[40] Bismillah Khan Mohammadi announced the operational success of the districts being recaptured via Twitter.[41]

Audiovisual reports of the events circulated on social media[37] and were reported by Pajhwok Afghan News. Later on the 20th, it was reported that the forces, led by Abdul Hamid Dadgar, had recaptured Andarab, though the Taliban had not yet commented.[42]

A source within the Panjshir resistance consequently confirmed their involvement in the operations in Baghlan Province, and stated that they planned on seizing a northern highway which could allow them to link up with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.[36] Taliban social media accounts called the counteroffensive a "betrayal" of the amnesty the Taliban had offered.[43] It was reported on 22 August 2021 that Taliban fighters had been sent to the Keshnabad area of Andarab in order to kidnap the children of anti-Taliban forces.[44]

Some sources report that, as of 18 August 2021, Islamic Republic forces were battling the Islamic Emirate for control of the Salang Pass, pictured here in 2005.

Also, the Islamic Emirate gave the opposition forces a four hour ultimatum to surrender.[45] In a statement to Al Arabiya, Massoud rejected the ultimatum.[45] In response, the IEA announced "hundreds" of its forces had been dispatched to the Panjshir Valley.[46] It was reported on 23 August 2021 that talks between Taliban representatives and Panjshir leaders did not work.[47] Ali Maisam Nazary, spokesman for the resistance, said that the Taliban made demands for Massoud to accept no elections with a centralized government, which Massoud rejected as he wanted a future government to be decentralized, which respect civil and semi-autonomy rights.[21]

An unidentified Taliban spokesperson proclaimed in a statement that "hundreds of Mujahideen of the Islamic Emirate are heading towards the state of Panjshir to control it, after local state officials refused to hand it over peacefully".[48] It was reported that on 23 August 2021, Taliban commmander Qari Fashihuddin was tasked to lead offensive operations in Panjshir.[49] The Taliban reported that several of their fighters were shot and killed in ambushes in Jabal Siraj with several of them killed and others wounded.[49]

On 23 August 2021, the Taliban claimed to have recaptured all 3 districts in Baghlan that fell to the resistance forces a week ago: Dih Salah District, Pul-e-Hisar and Andarab.[50] A Taliban district chief stationed in Andarab was reported to be killed in the fighting.[15] On 24 August 2021, according to Deccan Herald, Panjshir resistance fighters retook control of Banu and Dih Salah districts, while Puli Hisar remained under Taliban control.[51] Saleh publicly warned via Twitter that Taliban fighters in Andarab were blocking humanitarian assistance for civilians trying to escape from the fighting and called it a "humanitarian disaster".[52] On the following day, Massoud's forces claimed to have ambushed a Taliban convoy in Andarab, destroying a critical bridge and inflicting heavy losses on the Islamists.[7]

On 24 August 2021, Major Wazir Akbar, an ex-Afghan commando who has joined the Panjshir-based resistance fighters, reported an attempted Taliban incursion at Anjuman Pass through Badakhshan province, which was repelled with heavy Taliban casualties.[53]

On 26 August, 2021, a ceasefire was declared with the Taliban and the resistance entering into talks.[2][54] Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that he was "80 percent confident of a solution without war in the Panjshir Valley".[55] On 29 August 2021, Panjshir representatives stated that there were no Taliban fighters trying to enter Panjshir, refuting information from Anaamullah Samangani, who is a member of the Taliban's Cultural Commission.[56]

On 26 August, 2021, according to a video published by Global Defense Corp, heavy fighting broke out between anti-Taliban resistance group in Panjshir Valley and Taliban.[57][58] More than 200 Taliban fighters were driven out the Panjshir Valley and some were captured by anti-Taliban resistance group. The National Resistance Front (NRF) has also captured Pol-e-Hesar, Deh Salah and Banu districts.[59][60]

On 28 August 2021, Panjshir fighters have engaged Taliban fighters in Sanjan, Kapisa and in Khost Wa Fereng, Baghlan in response to allegations of ceasefire violations conducted by Taliban fighters in the area.[61]

On 29 August 2021, internet and telecommunication services throughout Panjshir province were shut down on orders from the Taliban.[62][63]

On 30 August 2021, Panjshir fighters ambushed Taliban fighters attempting to break into Panjshir from Andarab.[64] On 31 August 2021, eight Taliban fighters were killed while trying to infiltrate the western part of Pansjhir with 2 NRF fighters wounded.[65] Fahim Dashty said that the attack was likely done to test the area's defenses.[65]

Resolution

On 17 August 2021, a negotiated end to the political impasse has been attempted, with Saleh calling for a "peace deal" with the Taliban.[22][66] On 18 August, Mohammad Zahir Aghbar, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's ambassador to Tajikistan, indicated the possibility of including the Taliban in a coalition government as a means of ending the stalemate.[67]

On 21 August 2021, it was reported that Panjshir representatives were meeting with Abdullah Abdullah and Hamid Karzai, members of the Coordination Council, to "discuss the current situation and ways of providing security to Afghans".[68]

On 22 August 2021, the Russian Embassy in Afghanistan was reportedly asked by a Taliban representative to reach out to Panjshir-based leaders to possibly mediate.[69] Meanwhile, resistance spokesman Ali Maisam Nazary informed the Agence France-Presse that Ahmad Massoud's group would prefer a peaceful resolution of the conflict, under the condition that a future government implemented a system of "decentralisation" and "equal rights" across the country.[10] On 23 August 2021, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that while Taliban fighters are being sent to Panjshir, the Taliban are willing to seek peaceful means to end the conflict.[70]

Reactions

As of 23 August, there has been no public support from the international community, as the US and other potential allies focus on the ongoing evacuation of Kabul, and seek the Taliban's cooperation to do so. Massoud's op-ed in The Washington Post requesting Western support may be evidence of a lack of enthusiasm (for the resistance) in the US government.[71]

Journalists Carlotta Gall and Adam Nossiter wrote in The New York Times that the international community would be in a bind if they showed some form of support for the resistance because of the airlift operations.[7] Abdul Matin Beyk suggested that other anti-Taliban forces are waiting to see if the Panjshir-based fighters will either resist to the end or keep considering negotiations from Taliban representatives.[7] He suggests that their successes can inspire others to do the same.[7]

On 27 August 2021, Tajiks from Kulob, Tajikistan have volunteered to prepare to fight against the Taliban, despite warnings from Tajik officials that it can be deemed illegal.[72]

See also

References

  1. ^ "'Panjshir stands strong': Afghanistan's last holdout against the Taliban". the Guardian. 18 August 2021. Retrieved 19 August 2021.
  2. ^ a b c "Taliban, Northern Alliance agree not to attack each other: sources". www.geo.tv. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  3. ^ "Taliban and Northern Alliance in Panjshir strike a peace deal". Global Village Space. 26 August 2021. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  4. ^ "Ahmad Massoud: Anti-Taliban Resistance from the Panjshir Valley". LangcangKuning.com. 23 August 2021.
  5. ^ "'Fight to the death' looms in Panjshir Valley". Asia Times. 26 August 2021.
  6. ^ a b Kramer, Andrew E. (18 August 2021). "Leaders in Afghanistan's Panjshir Valley defy the Taliban and demand an inclusive government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 18 August 2021.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h Gall, Carlotta; Nossiter, Adam (25 August 2021). "Budding Resistance to the Taliban Faces Long Odds". New York Times. Retrieved 25 August 2021.
  8. ^ a b c d e Ebbighausen, Rodion (20 August 2021). "Why Afghanistan's Panjshir remains out of Taliban's reach". DW. Retrieved 22 August 2021.
  9. ^ a b Taliban suffer first battlefield loss since fall of Kabul
  10. ^ a b c d e f g h "Afghan resistance ready for conflict but prefers negotiations". France24. 22 August 2021. Retrieved 22 August 2021.
  11. ^ a b Filseth, Trevor (20 August 2021). "Taliban Takeover: Panjshir Valley Holdouts Offer Peace Deal to Taliban". The National Interest. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
  12. ^ "Anti-Taliban fighters claim victories as first stirrings of armed resistance emerge". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 24 August 2021. ... a tweet from a pro-Taliban account claimed the clashes killed 15 Taliban and wounded 15, and that the Taliban was betrayed after offering amnesty to locals
  13. ^ a b Rosenberg, Matthew (21 August 2021). "Resistance fighters drive Taliban from 3 districts in the mountains north of Kabul". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 24 August 2021. The fighters claimed to have killed as many as 30 Taliban and captured nearly two dozen more. A pro-Taliban Twitter account put the militants' death toll at half that number.
  14. ^ "Watch: Taliban sends hundreds of fighters to Resistance stronghold Panjshir". Hindustan Times. 23 August 2021. Retrieved 24 August 2021. Reports on social media claimed that around 300 Taliban fighters had been killed by resistance forces.
  15. ^ a b India Today Web Desk. "Taliban district chief, 50 insurgents killed in fight with Afghan resistance in Andarab". India Today. Retrieved 24 August 2021. Meanwhile, one member of the resistance was killed and six were wounded.
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  21. ^ a b c "Taliban Targets Panjshir Valley as Resistance Leaders Remain Defiant | Voice of America - English".
  22. ^ a b c Hakemy, Sulaiman (17 August 2021). "Panjshir: The last bastion of anti-Taliban resistance in Afghanistan". The National. Retrieved 17 August 2021.
  23. ^ "Operations". Northern Alliance: Fighting for a Free Afghanistan. Friends of the Northern Alliance. Retrieved 19 August 2021.
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  51. ^ "Dozens of Taliban fighters killed by Panjshir resistance". Deccan Herald. 24 August 2021. Archived from the original on 24 August 2021. Retrieved 25 August 2021.
  52. ^ Taliban abducting children, elderly in Andarab valley: Amrullah Saleh
  53. ^ "Taliban to send team to Panjshir for talks".
  54. ^ "Taliban and Northern Alliance begin talks, both agreed on ceasefire". 26 August 2021.
  55. ^ "Taliban confident of peace deal in Panjshir, but Afghan resistance force vows 'no surrender'". 27 August 2021.
  56. ^ "Resistance Forces in Afghan Province Reject Taliban's Claim of Advances: Report".
  57. ^ "the U.S should back anti-taliban resistance groups, says lawmaker". Global Defense Corp. 26 August 2021. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  58. ^ GDC (31 August 2021). "Afghanistan's Civil War Just Started As Taliban Battles Isis-K, Panjshir Valley's NRF And Itself". Global Defense Corp. Retrieved 31 August 2021.
  59. ^ DelhiAugust 25, India Today Web Desk New; August 25, 2021UPDATED:; Ist, 2021 01:50. "Exclusive Ground Report: Resistance forces, Taliban face off in Afghanistan's Panjshir valley". India Today. Retrieved 26 August 2021. {{cite web}}: |first3= has numeric name (help)CS1 maint: extra punctuation (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  60. ^ "Peace deal with Panjshir Resistance? Taliban 80% confident, claims report". Hindustan Times. 25 August 2021. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  61. ^ "Heavy losses to Taliban in Kapisa as Afghan resistance counterattacks". 28 August 2021.
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  63. ^ "A video of MP Ashraf Ghani in Panjshir .. And the Taliban cut the internet". 29 August 2021.
  64. ^ "Panjshir resistance forces repel Taliban attack on its outpost - source". TASS. Retrieved 31 August 2021.
  65. ^ a b https://www.jpost.com/international/eight-taliban-killed-by-resistance-fighters-in-panjshir-678233
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  67. ^ "Afghan envoy says hold-out Panjshir province can resist Taliban rule". Reuters. 18 August 2021. Retrieved 18 August 2021.
  68. ^ Blum, Justin (20 August 2021). "Former Afghan Leaders Meet Taliban: Afghanistan Update". Bloomberg News. Archived from the original on 21 August 2021. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
  69. ^ Russia set to help Taliban reach political deal with 'resistance' leaders at Panjshir
  70. ^ "Gunfire At Kabul Airport Kills One Afghan Soldier As Evacuations Continue". NPR.org. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  71. ^ Rosenberg, Matthew (21 August 2021). "Resistance fighters drive Taliban from 3 districts in the mountains north of Kabul". The New York Times.
  72. ^ "Tajik Group Offers to Fight Alongside Anti-Taliban Militias in Afghanistan".