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2024 Tasmanian state election: Difference between revisions

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! style="background:#00bfff;"|[[Peter Gutwein|Gutwein]]
! style="background:#00bfff;"|[[Peter Gutwein|Gutwein]]
! style="background:#f66;"|[[Rebecca White|White]]
! style="background:#f66;"|[[Rebecca White|White]]

Revision as of 19:17, 6 December 2023

Next Tasmanian state election
← 2021 on or before 28 June 2025
All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Jeremy-Rockliff.jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Rebecca White Rosalie Woodruff
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 8 April 2022 7 July 2021 13 July 2023
Leader's seat Braddon Lyons Franklin
Last election 13 seats; 48.7% 9 seats; 28.2% 2 seats; 12.4%
Current seats 11 seats 8 seats 2 seats
Seats needed Increase 7 Increase 10 Increase 16
Incumbent Premier

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal



The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held on or before Saturday 28 June 2025 to elect all 35 members to the House of Assembly.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size was increased from 25 to 35 seats at this election, under the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022.[1][2]

The Liberal government, currently led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will attempt to win a fourth term against the Labor opposition, led by Rebecca White. Minor party the Greens will also contest the election. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections.

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, which took place on 1 May 2021.[3] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[4] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[5] and polling day must be a Saturday between 22 and 30 days after nominations close.[6]

In May 2023, Rockliff ruled out holding an early election, in contrast to his predecessor (Peter Gutwein), who called the last state election a year early.[7]

Background

Main article: 2021 Tasmanian state election

After the snap 2021 Tasmanian state election, the Liberal Party successfully won a majority of seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly.[8] A Liberal MP for Braddon, Adam Brooks, resigned on 14 May 2021 after being charged with firearms offences by Queensland law enforcement. These offences were unauthorised possession of a Category H weapon, unauthorised possession of explosives, and dealing with identity documents. Premier Peter Gutwein said that "I made the decision that under the circumstances of both his mental health and in terms of the fact that he's now facing these new charges, that he won't take his seat in parliament." Greens leader Cassy O'Connor said that "there are now very serious questions to answer about whether or not he was ever considered a legitimate candidate by the Liberal Party", given he resigned "the day the polls [were] declared". Prior claims from women were made before the 2021 election, saying they were catfished by Brooks under the alias "Terry Brooks".[9]

David O'Byrne (left) served as Labor leader for 22 days, resigning over sexual harassment allegations. His predecessor as leader, Rebecca White (right) ended up returning to the leadership role after O'Byrne's resignation.

Rebecca White resigned as Labor leader on 15 May 2021, endorsing shadow treasurer David O'Byrne to replace her.[10][11] On 15 June 2021, it was announced that O'Byrne had been elected as leader of the Tasmanian Labor Party against opponent Shane Broad, winning 72% of the members' vote and 75% of party delegates.[12] After allegations of him sexting and kissing a woman without her consent were revealed, David O'Byrne stood aside from his role as leader of the Labor Party for the length of an investigation on 30 June 2021, with Anita Dow acting as leader during the interim.[13] This was followed by O'Byrne announcing he would resign as leader on 4 July 2021.[14] On 7 July 2021, Rebecca White was elected as leader after a meeting of the Labor parliamentary caucus.[15]

On 4 April 2022, Premier Peter Gutwein announced he will quit politics, resigning as Premier and as a member for Bass following the appointment of a new Premier.[16] Jeremy Rockliff, who had been the deputy Liberal leader for 16 years, officially replaced Gutwein as Premier on 8 April 2022, with Bass MP Michael Ferguson as his deputy.[17]

On 25 May 2022, Premier Rockliff announced his intention to table a bill in State Parliament to restore the state's House of Assembly to 35 seats before the end of 2022.[18][19] The bill restored the size of parliament to its original number before the reductions to 25 seats was implemented at the 1998 election. The change will come into effect at this election. The legislation was supported by the Liberals, Labor, Greens and independent Kristie Johnston.[20] It became law upon its assent by the Governor in December 2022.[21]

On 11 May 2023, MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker resigned as members of the Tasmanian Liberal Party and from all parliamentary committees, and served the remainder of their terms as independents on the crossbench. This left the Liberal party in minority government and requiring 7 seats to reach a majority in the next state election.[22] Tucker and Alexander both agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply.[23]

Changes in parliamentary composition

Since the 2021 election, there were a number of changes within the Tasmanian Parliament that effected the balance of power in the chamber.

Seat Before Change After
Member Party Type Date Date Member Party
Braddon Adam Brooks Liberal Resignation 14 March 2021 3 June 2021 Felix Ellis Liberal
Franklin David O'Byrne Labor Defection 23 August 2021 David O'Byrne Independent Labor
Bass Sarah Courtney Liberal Resignation 10 February 2022 25 March 2022 Lara Alexander Liberal
Bass Peter Gutwein Liberal Resignation 8 April 2022 25 April 2022 Simon Wood Liberal
Franklin Jacquie Petrusma Liberal Resignation 25 July 2022 16 August 2022 Dean Young Liberal
Bass Lara Alexander Liberal Defection 11 May 2023 Lara Alexander Independent
Lyons John Tucker Liberal Defection 11 May 2023 John Tucker Independent
Clark Cassy O'Connor Greens Resignation 13 July 2023 1 August 2023 Vica Bayley Greens
Clark Elise Archer Liberal Defection 29 September 2023 Elise Archer Independent
Clark Elise Archer Independent Resignation 4 October 2023 24 October 2023 Simon Behrakis Liberal

Registered parties

Main article: List of political parties in Australia

8 parties are registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.[24]

Opinion polling

Polling was regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[25]

Voting intention

Primary vote
House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Political parties
LIB ALP GRN IND/OTH
November 2023 EMRS[26] 39% 29% 12% 19%
15–19 August 2023 EMRS[27] 38% 32% 14% 15%
15–19 May 2023 EMRS[28] 36% 31% 15% 18%
14–19 February 2023 EMRS[29] 42% 30% 13% 15%
8–15 November 2022 EMRS[30] 42% 29% 14% 16%
8–11 August 2022 EMRS[31] 41% 31% 13% 15%
27 May – 2 June 2022 EMRS[32] 39% 30% 13% 18%
28 February – 1 March 2022 EMRS[33] 41% 31% 12% 16%
28 November – 5 December 2021 EMRS[34] 49% 26% 13% 12%
7–9 August 2021 EMRS[35] 49% 28% 13% 10%
2021 election 48.72% 28.20% 12.38% 10.71%

Preferred Premier

Preferred Premier
Preferred Premier polling
Date Firm Party leaders
Rockliff White Unsure
15–21 August 2023 EMRS[27] 42% 39% 18%
15–19 May 2023 EMRS[28] 38% 40% 18%
14–19 February 2023 EMRS[29] 44% 36% 17%
8–15 November 2022 EMRS[30] 46% 34% 18%
8–11 August 2022 EMRS 47% 35% 16%
27 May – 2 June 2022 EMRS 47% 34% 18%
Jeremy Rockliff replaces Peter Gutwein as Premier and Liberal leader
Date Firm Party leaders
Gutwein White Unsure
28 February – 1 March 2022 EMRS 52% 33% 14%
28 November – 5 December 2021 EMRS 59% 29% 12%
7–9 August 2021 EMRS 59% 28% 11%

References

  1. ^ "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
  2. ^ Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
  3. ^ "Parliamentary Elections, 2007–2010" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 March 2012. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  4. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 63 Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine.
  5. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 69 Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine.
  6. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 70 .
  7. ^ "Soldiering on: Premier rules out early election". Mercury.
  8. ^ Humphries, Alexandra (13 May 2021). "Peter Gutwein welcomes third consecutive election win for Tasmanian Liberals". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
  9. ^ Humphries, Alexandra; Fisher, Rachel; Dunlevie, James (14 May 2021). "Tasmanian Liberal Adam Brooks charged by police over firearms offences, resigns from Parliament". ABC News. Archived from the original on 14 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
  10. ^ Langenberg, Adam (15 May 2021). "Rebecca White stands down as Tasmanian Labor leader, endorses David O'Byrne as successor". ABC News. Archived from the original on 15 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  11. ^ "Rebecca White stands aside as Tasmania's Labor leader". Sky News Australia. 15 May 2021. Archived from the original on 15 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  12. ^ Langenberg, Adam (15 June 2021). "David O'Byrne elected leader of Labor Party in Tasmania". ABC News. Archived from the original on 16 June 2021. Retrieved 16 June 2021.
  13. ^ Mobbs, Melissa (30 June 2021). "David O'Byrne stands aside as Tasmanian Labor leader, issues statement after sexual harassment allegations". The Examiner. Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  14. ^ Abblitt, Ebony (4 July 2021). "David O'Byrne to resign as Labor leader". The Examiner . Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  15. ^ "Rebecca White returned as Tasmanian Labor leader after David O'Byrne's resignation". ABC News. 7 July 2021. Archived from the original on 12 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  16. ^ "Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein quits politics". ABC. 4 April 2022. Archived from the original on 4 April 2022. Retrieved 4 April 2022.
  17. ^ Humphries, Alexandra (8 April 2022). "Jeremy Rockliff, Michael Ferguson announced as Tasmania's leadership team". ABC. Archived from the original on 8 April 2022. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
  18. ^ Humphries, Alexandra (25 May 2022). "Premier Jeremy Rockliff to introduce bill to restore Tasmania's Lower House to 35 seats". Archived from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 25 May 2022.
  19. ^ "Restoring the size of the Tasmanian Parliament". Premier's Department. 25 May 2022. Archived from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 25 May 2022.
  20. ^ Morton, Adam (25 May 2022). "Tasmanian parliament to expand to 35 lower house seats amid concerns about ministerial burnout". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 26 May 2022. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  21. ^ "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
  22. ^ "Live: Anger over Hobart AFL stadium sinks Tasmania's government into minority as MPs quit party". ABC News. 11 May 2023. Archived from the original on 23 May 2023. Retrieved 12 May 2023.
  23. ^ Adam Holmes (20 May 2023). "Rogue MPs Alexander and Tucker stand with Tasmanian premier to guarantee supply ahead of state budget". ABC News.
  24. ^ "TEC Party Register". www.tec.tas.gov.au. Archived from the original on 22 April 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2022.
  25. ^ EMRS.com.au website Archived 9 March 2022 at the Wayback Machine.
  26. ^ [1]
  27. ^ a b https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/64e6b8e2485aea1c90404892/1692842213563/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+August+2023.pdf
  28. ^ a b "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll May 2023" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 24 May 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 May 2023.
  29. ^ a b "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll February 2023" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 2 March 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 March 2023.
  30. ^ a b "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll November 2022" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 23 November 2022. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 March 2023.
  31. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll August 2022" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2 September 2022. Retrieved 2 September 2022.
  32. ^ "Decline in State Support for Liberals, Rockliff". Tasmanian Times. Archived from the original on 10 June 2022. Retrieved 10 June 2022.
  33. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll March 2022" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.
  34. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll December 2021" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.
  35. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll August 2021" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.
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