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Revision as of 06:44, 11 June 2011

2011 Pacific typhoon season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedApril 1, 2011
Last system dissipatedStill Active
Strongest storm
NameSongda
 • Maximum winds195 km/h (120 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure920 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions6
Total storms3
Typhoons1
Super typhoons1 (Unofficial)
Total fatalities24 direct, 9 indirect
Total damage$31.7 million (2011 USD)
Pacific typhoon seasons
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

The 2011 Pacific typhoon season is a current event in which tropical cyclones form in the Western Pacific Ocean. The season will run throughout 2011 with most tropical cyclones forming between May and November. The scope of this article is limited to the Pacific Ocean to the north of the equator between 100th meridian east and the 180th meridian. Within the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, there are two separate agencies who assign names to tropical cyclones which can often result in a cyclone having two names. The Japan Meteorological Agency will name a tropical cyclone should it be judged to have 10-minute sustained wind speeds of at least 65 km/h, (40 mph) anywhere in the basin. Whilst the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration assigns names to tropical cyclones which move into or form as a tropical depression in their area of responsibility located between 135°E and 115°E and between 5°N-25°N even if the cyclone has had a name assigned to it by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Tropical depressions that are monitored by the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center are given a number with a "W" suffix. On average, 27 storms form in this basin every year.

Seasonal forecasts

Forecast
Center		 Date Total
TCs		 Tropical
storms		 Total
Typhoons		 Intense
TCs		 Source
GCACIC Average (1950–2000) 31 27 17  – [1]
TSR Average(1965–2010)  – 26.3 16.4 8.5 [2]
TSR March 8, 2011  – 27.8 17.5 7.8 [2]
TSR May 5, 2011  – 28.0 17.7 7.6 [3]
GCACIC May 9, 2011 31 27 16  – [1]
JMA Actual activity 3 1 0 0
JTWC Actual activity 3 1 0 0

Each season several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many tropical cyclones, tropical storms, and typhoons will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country.

City University of Hong Kong

Since the 2000 Pacific typhoon season, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), of the City University of Hong Kong (CityUHK), have issued forecasts of activity for each upcoming typhoon season. In May, the GCACIC issued a forecast that predicted the amount of tropical cyclones, tropical storms and typhoons there will be during 2011 and for how many tropical cyclones will make landfall and or pass within 100 km (60 mi) of Southern China, the Korean Peninsula or Japan. In its May forecast; GCACIC predicted that 31 tropical cyclones, 27 tropical storms, and 17 typhoons would either form or move into the North Western Pacific this year. For the Korean Peninsula and Japan, the GCACIC forecasted that 6 tropical cyclones would affect the region compared to an average of 4. For Southern China, the GCACIC predicted that 7 tropical cyclones would affect the region compared to an average of 5. The GCACIC further predicted that 5 of the 7 tropical cyclones would affect Southern China between May and August, while the other two would occur between September and December.

Tropical Storm Risk Consortium

Since the 2000 Pacific typhoon season, the Tropical Storm Risk Consortium (TSR) of University College London have issued forecasts of activity for each upcoming typhoon season.[2] Forecasts on the number of tropical storms, typhoons and intense typhoons there would be during 2011 in the Western Pacific were/will be released in March, May, July and August.[nb 1] In their March and May forecasts, TSR predicted that the season would see activity close to the average with 28 tropical storms, 18 typhoons and 8 intense typhoons developing during the season.[2][3]

National meteorological service predictions

On January 17, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that they were expecting between 20 and 22 tropical cyclones to pass through the Philippine area of responsibility during 2011.[4] On March 23 the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), reported that they were predicting that 6-9 tropical cyclones would affect Hong Kong during the season.[5] On April 26, the Thai Meteorological Department predicted that 2 tropical storms would affect Thailand during 2011. They predicted that one would move through Vietnam and affect Upper Thailand, during August or September. While the second tropical storm was expected to move through Southern Thailand during October or November.[6]

Season summary

Storms

Tropical Depression 01W

Tropical depression (JMA)
Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationApril 1 – April 4
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min);
1004 hPa (mbar)

On April 1, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began monitoring an area of low pressure associated with intermittent convection over the South China Sea, roughly 535 km (335 mi) east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.[7] The former of these two agencies immediately declared the system a tropical depression, the first of the 2011 season.[8] Following further development of the system, most notably convective banding around the low-level circulation center,[9] the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on the storm.[10] Early on April 2, the agency followed through with this alert and designated the low as Tropical Depression 01W.[11] However, within hours of this, the depression became devoid of convection as wind shear buffeted the system. This prevented the cyclone from intensifying beyond depression status as it remained nearly stationary.[12] Failing to regain convection by April 3, the depression degenerated into a remnant low and the final advisory from the JTWC was issued.[13] The JMA continued to monitor the system as a tropical depression for another day before issuing their last warning on the system.[14]

Tropical Depression 02W (Amang)

Tropical depression (JMA)
Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationApril 3 – April 6
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min);
1000 hPa (mbar)

On March 30, the JMA began monitoring an area of low pressure located southwest of Yap.[15] By April 2, the system developed a low-level circulation, though convection appeared disorganized. Exhibiting good outflow within a region of weak wind shear, the low was anticipated to develop further over the following several days as it drifted west-northwestward.[16] After briefly stalling early on April 3,[17] the storm turned towards the east. Additionally, the JMA considered the system sufficiently organized to be declared a tropical depression.[18] As the system was located to the west of 135°E, PAGASA began issuing advisories on the depression as well, assigning it the name "Amang".[19] Tracking northeastward, the depression eventually developed enough convection to be declared Tropical Depression 02W by the JTWC on April 4. However, this was expected to be brief as a decaying frontal boundary approached from the west and prompted the system to undergo an extratropical transition.[20] This intensification prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) in Tiyan, Guam to issue a tropical storm warning for the islands of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.[21] Interacting with the front and high wind shear, the system became partially exposed and elongated as it moved over cooler waters.[22] Early on April 6, the JTWC issued their final advisory on the depression as it began to dissipate over open waters.[23] Following degradation of the storm's structure, the NWS discontinued warnings for the Mariana Islands on April 6.[24] The JMA continued to monitor the system for several more hours before ceasing advisories on it as well.[25]

Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng)

Tropical storm (JMA)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 5 – May 12
Peak intensity75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min);
992 hPa (mbar)

Early of May 4, an area of low pressure formed about 140 km (85 mi) to the west of Palau Island.[26] On that same day, the low pressure starts to strengthen rapidly with improved LLCC, tightly–wrapped shallow convective banding and a well–defined center. On the next day the low pressure starts to move northwest in general direction to the seas east of Philippine Islands. However it remained almost stationary by afternoon due to the influence of high pressure that located in the northeast of the system. By that time, its LLCC starts to become elongated and the system was also located in favorable sea surface temperatures with low vertical wind shear. Later of that day, its LLCC starts to consolidate again and the system starts to move northwest slowly, whilst the Japan Meteorological Agency upgraded the system into a tropical depression[27] In the afternoon of May 6, Joint Typhoon Warning Center upgraded the low pressure into a tropical depression. In the same evening, PAGASA upgraded the low pressure into a tropical depression and assigned its local name 'Bebeng'. In the afternoon of May 7, JMA upgraded the tropical depression to a tropical storm, and assigned the name 'Aere'. During the early morning of May 12, the JMA downgraded Aere to a tropical depression while south of Kyushu Island.

Throughout the Philippines, multiple agencies activated their emergency plans as the storm approached. The Armed Forces of the Philippines, the Philippine National Police, and the Philippine Coast Guard were all placed on standby to deploy to areas struck by Aere once the storm passed. Several ports were affected by the storm, stranding 1,379 passengers by the afternoon of May 7.[28] According to the the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, at least 35 people have been killed and two more are missing as a result of Aere. Agricultural losses are estimated at PHP1.37 billion (US$31.7 million).[29] Widespread flooding and landslides damaged homes, blocked off roads and severed communications. In Catarman, Northern Samar, 377.4 mm (14.86 in) of rain fell in just 24 hours, resulted in significant flash flooding.[30]

Typhoon Songda (Chedeng)

Violent typhoon (JMA)
Category 5 super typhoon (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 19 – May 29
Peak intensity195 km/h (120 mph) (10-min);
920 hPa (mbar)

On May 19, the JTWC reported that an area of low pressure had persisted about 510 km (320 mi) to the southeast of Yap. As the system moved towards the northwest under the influence of a subtropical ridge of high pressure, it rapidly consolidated in an area of light to moderate vertical windshear. The JMA then started to monitor the system as a tropical depression later that day, before the JTWC designated it as Tropical Depression 04W early on May 20. The JTWC then reported later that day that the depression had intensified into a tropical storm with windspeeds of 65 km/h (40 mph), however it later reported that it had overestimated the windspeeds and consequently lowered the storm's status to a tropical depression, based on observations from Yap island. Late on May 21, both the JMA and the JTWC reported that the depression had now become a tropical storm with the JMA naming it as Songda. Over the next couple of days, the system gradually intensified further while moving northwest into PAGASA's area of responsibility. PAGASA named it as Chedeng. At 1200  UTC on May 24, the JTWC reported that Songda had intensified into a typhoon. 12 hours later the JMA followed suit while the system was located about 800 km (500 mi) to the southeast of Manila in the Philippines. It rapidly intensified into a Category 5 typhoon. Songda did not strike the Philippines directly, but came close enough to cause widespread landslides and flooding, as well as killing one person.[citation needed]

After being downgraded from a 5 to a Category 3, Songda battered Okinawa with high winds and heavy rain, before moving up to mainland Japan, weakening further. In Okinawa, 58 people were injured, 5 severely, and thousands were left without power. The typhoon later battered Miyagi, which was already trying to recover from the 2011 earthquake, killing at least 13.[citation needed]

In the afternoon of May 29, Songda became extratropical south of Shikoku Island.

Tropical Depression

Tropical depression (JMA)
 
DurationMay 31 – June 2
Peak intensity45 km/h (30 mph) (10-min);
1004 hPa (mbar)

During the evening of May 31, the JMA upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression. Initially, the tropical depression was located about 400 km (250 miles) south west of Hong Kong.[31] The system did not develop further and was downgraded to an area of low pressure by the JMA on June 2.

Tropical Storm Sarika (Dodong)

Tropical storm (JMA)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 8 – June 11
Peak intensity75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min);
996 hPa (mbar)

On early June 8, an area of low pressure formed about 10 km west of Cebu City, Philippines. As it moved towards the Mindoro Strait the JMA and JTWC began to monitor the system. In the early morning hours of June 9, the Philippines' PAGASA upgraded the system to a tropical depression and reported the storm center to be about 450 km west of Dagupan City in the Philippines. The next day, the JMA and JTWC upgraded the tropical depression into a tropical storm, with the JMA naming it Sarika. During the morning of June 11 the JTWC downgraded Sarika to a tropical depression after making landfall in Shantou, China. The JTWC soon issued their final advisory on Sarika.

Storm Names

Within the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, there are two separate agencies who assign names to tropical cyclones which often results in a cyclone having two names. The Japan Meteorological Agency names tropical cyclones should they be judged to have 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 65 km/h, (40 mph), to the north of the equator between the 180° and 100°E. Whilst the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration assigns names to tropical cyclones which move into or form as a tropical depression in their area of responsibility located between 135°E and 115°E and between 5°E-25°E even if the cyclone has had a name assigned to it by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

International names

See also: Lists of tropical cyclone names and Tropical cyclone naming

Tropical Cyclones are named from the following lists by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Tokyo, Japan, once they reach tropical storm strength.[32] Names are contributed by members of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee. Each of the 14 nations or territories submitted 10 names, which are used in alphabetical order, by the English name of the country.[33] The next 24 names on the naming list are listed here.

  • Aere (1101)
  • Songda (1102)
  • Sarika (1103)
  • Haima (unused)
  • Meari (unused)
  • Ma-on (unused)
  • Tokage (unused)
  • Nock-ten (unused)
  • Muifa (unused)
  • Merbok (unused)
  • Nanmadol (unused)
  • Talas (unused)
  • Noru (unused)
  • Kulap  (unused)
  • Roke (unused)
  • Sonca (unused)
  • Nesat (unused)
  • Haitang (unused)
  • Nalgae (unused)
  • Banyan (unused)
  • Washi (unused)
  • Pakhar (unused)
  • Sanvu (unused)
  • Mawar (unused)

Philippines

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration uses its own naming scheme for tropical cyclones in their area of responsibility. PAGASA assigns names to tropical depressions that form within their area of responsibility and any tropical cyclone that might move into their area of responsibility. Should the list of names for a given year prove to be insufficient, names are taken from an auxiliary list, the first 10 of which are published each year before the season starts.[34]

  • Amang (02W)
  • Bebeng (1101)
  • Chedeng (1102)
  • Dodong (1103)
  • Egay (unused)
  • Falcon (unused)
  • Goring (unused)
  • Hanna (unused)
  • Ineng (unused)
  • Juaning (unused)
  • Kabayan (unused)
  • Lonlon (unused)
  • Mina (unused)
  • Nonoy (unused)
  • Onyok (unused)
  • Pedring (unused)
  • Quiel (unused)
  • Ramon (unused)
  • Sendong (unused)
  • Tisoy (unused)
  • Ursula (unused)
  • Viring (unused)
  • Weng (unused)
  • Yoyoy (unused)
  • Zigzag (unused)
  • Abe (unused)
  • Berto (unused)
  • Charo (unused)
  • Dado (unused)
  • Estoy (unused)
  • Felion (unused)
  • Gening (unused)
  • Herman (unused)
  • Irma (unused)
  • Jaime (unused)

Retirement

See also: List of retired Pacific typhoon names (JMA) and List of retired Philippine typhoon names

On May 16, 2011, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced that the name Bebeng would be retired due to extensive damage and loss of life.[35]

Season effects

This table lists all the storms that developed in the western Pacific Ocean to the west of the International Date Line during the 2011 season. It includes their intensity, duration, name, landfalls, deaths, and damages. All damage figures are in 2011 USD. Damages and deaths from a storm include when the storm was a precursor wave or extratropical low. Names assigned by PAGASA are shown in parentheses.

Storm
Name		 Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity		 Peak 10-min
sustained winds		 Pressure
hPa		 Areas affected Damage
(USD)		 Deaths References
01W April 1 – 4 Tropical Depression 55 km/h (35 mph) 1004 hPa (29.65 inHg) None None None
02W
(Amang)		 April 3 – 6 Tropical Depression 55 km/h (35 mph) 1000 hPa (29.53 inHg) Northern Mariana Islands None None
Aere
(Bebeng)		 May 5 – 12 Tropical Storm 85 km/h (50 mph) 992 hPa (29.29 inHg) Philippines $31.7 million 44 [29]
Songda
(Chedeng)		 May 19 – 29 Typhoon 195 km/h (120 mph) 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) Philippines, Japan $253,000 17
Tropical Depression May 31 – June 2 Tropical Depression 55 km/h (35 mph) 1004 hPa (29.65 inHg) None None None
Sarika
(Dodong)		 June 8 – Still active Tropical Storm 75 km/h (45 mph) 996 hPa (29.42 inHg) Philippines, China None 6 [36]
Season Aggregates
Total Depressions: 6 April 1 – Still active 195 km/h (120 mph) 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) $31.9 million 69

See also

Notes

  1. ^ According to TSR: An intense typhoon is a typhoon that has one-minute winds of at least 175 km/h (110 mph)

References

  1. ^ a b Unattributed (2010-05-09). "May 2011 Predictions of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific". Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center. City University of Hong Kong. Retrieved 2011-05-10.
  2. ^ a b c d Saunders, Mark; Lea, Adam (2011-03-08). "Extended Range Forecast for Northwest Pacific Typhoon Activity in 2011". Tropical Storm Risk Consortium. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-04-03. Retrieved 2010-07-03.
  3. ^ a b Saunders, Mark; Lea, Adam (2011-03-08). "May Forecast Update for Northwest Pacific Typhoon Activity in 2011". Tropical Storm Risk Consortium. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-04-03. Retrieved 2010-07-03.
  4. ^ Dexter See (2010-01-07). "Cold weather affects Benguet mummies". Manila Bulletin. Retrieved 2011-04-03.
  5. ^ Lee, B.Y (2011-03-23). "Speech by Dr. B Y Lee, Director of the Hong Kong Observatory 2011-03-23". Hong Kong Observatory. Retrieved 2010-04-03.
  6. ^ Unattributed (2011-04-26). "Weather outlook for Thailand during Rainy Season (Early May to mid October 2011)". Thai Meteorological Department. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-05-10. Retrieved 2011-05-10.
  7. ^ "Significant Tropical Weather Outlook for the Western and South Pacific Oceans". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 1, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  8. ^ "JMA High Seas Forecast for 0600 UTC on April 1, 2011". Japan Meteorological Agency. April 1, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  9. ^ "Significant Tropical Weather Outlook for the Western and South Pacific Oceans". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 1, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  10. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 1, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  11. ^ "Tropical Depression 01W Advisory One". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 2, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  12. ^ "Tropical Depression 01W Advisory Two". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 2, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  13. ^ "Tropical Depression 01W Advisory Six (Final)". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 3, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  14. ^ "JMA High Seas Forecast for 0600 UTC on April 4, 2011". Japan Meteorological Agency. April 4, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  15. ^ "JMA High Seas Forecast for 1800 UTC on March 30, 2011". Japan Meteorological Agency. March 30, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  16. ^ "Significant Tropical Weather Outlook for the Western and South Pacific Oceans". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 2, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  17. ^ "JMA High Seas Forecast for 0000 UTC on April 3, 2011". Japan Meteorological Agency. April 3, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  18. ^ "JMA High Seas Forecast for 0600 UTC on April 3, 2011". Japan Meteorological Agency. April 3, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  19. ^ "Tropical Depression "Amang" Severe Weather Bulletin One". Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. April 3, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  20. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 02W Advisory One". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 5, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  21. ^ Michael G. Middlebrooke (April 5, 2011). "Tropical Depression 02W Advisory Number One". National Weather Service Office in Tiyan, Guam. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  22. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 02W Advisory Three". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. April 5, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  23. ^ "Tropical Depression 02W Advisory Five (Final)". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. United States Navy. April 6, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  24. ^ Paul Stanko and Marcus Landon Aydlett (April 6, 2011). "Tropical Depression 02W Advisory Number Four". National Weather Service Office in Tiyan, Guam. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  25. ^ "JMA High Seas Forecast for 1200 UTC on April 6, 2011". Japan Meteorological Agency. April 6, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  26. ^ http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt
  27. ^ http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/
  28. ^ "NDRRMC Update Initial Report on Tropical Depression "Bebeng"" (PDF). National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. National Disaster Coordinating Council. May 7, 2011. Retrieved May 7, 2011.
  29. ^ a b "NDRRMC Update SitRep No. 14 on Tropical Storm "Bebeng"" (PDF). National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. National Disaster Coordinating Council. May 16, 2011. Retrieved May 16, 2011.
  30. ^ "NDRRMC Update SitRep No. 3 on Tropical Storm "Bebeng"" (PDF). National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. National Disaster Coordinating Council. May 8, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2011.
  31. ^ "JMA Tropical Cyclone Summary; May 31, 2011". Japan Meteorological Agency. 2011-05-31. Retrieved 1 June 2011.
  32. ^ Gary Padgett. "Monthly Tropical Cyclone summary December 1999". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 2008-04-20.
  33. ^ "Tropical Cyclone names". JMA. Retrieved 2008-04-20.
  34. ^ Staff Writer (2010-09-22). "Philippine Tropical cyclone names". Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Retrieved 2010-09-23.
  35. ^ Helen Flores (May 16, 2011). "'Bebeng' out of Pagasa name list". The Philippine Star. Retrieved May 16, 2011.
  36. ^ "NDRRMC Update SitRep No. 5 on Tropical Storm "Dodong"" (PDF). National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. National Disaster Coordinating Council. June 10, 2011. Retrieved June 10, 2011.

External links

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