2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico: Difference between revisions
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==Background== |
==Background== |
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In February 2007 Domenici indicated his intention to run for re-election.<ref>{{cite news |
In February 2007 Domenici indicated his intention to run for re-election.<ref>{{cite news|first=Jennifer |last=Talhelm |title=Domenici: 'I am running' in 2008 |url=http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/56924.html |work=[[The Santa Fe New Mexican]] |date=2007-02-13 |accessdate=2007-02-14 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/20070930014935/http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/56924.html |archivedate=September 30, 2007 }}</ref> By October 2007, he changed his mind, stating that because of the progression of a medical condition, he would not seek a seventh term.<ref>{{cite news |first=Shailagh|last=Murray|title=Citing Health, GOP's Domenici says he'll retire from Senate|url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/04/AR2007100401516.html|work=[[The Washington Post]] |date=2007-10-05 |accessdate=2007-10-05 }}</ref> Domenici also lost his chairmanship after Republicans lost control of the Senate in the 2006 Senate election, which may have inclined him against running. On June 3, 2008 Pearce and Udall won their respective nomination contests.<ref name=autogenerated1>[http://election.kob.com/article/stories/S463780.shtml?cat=10568 Election.KOB.com – Pearce narrowly wins U.S. Senate nomination<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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==Democratic primary== |
==Democratic primary== |
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After Domenici announced he was not running, Democratic Governor [[Bill Richardson]] was considered a leading candidate for the seat, but in October he affirmed his commitment to his presidential nomination campaign.<ref>{{cite news |agency=Associated Press|title=Richardson Sticks with Presidential Bid|url=http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Richardson-Senate.html|work=[[The New York Times]] |date=2008-10-04 |accessdate=2008-10-05 }}</ref> |
After Domenici announced he was not running, Democratic Governor [[Bill Richardson]] was considered a leading candidate for the seat, but in October he affirmed his commitment to his presidential nomination campaign.<ref>{{cite news |agency=Associated Press|title=Richardson Sticks with Presidential Bid|url=http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Richardson-Senate.html|work=[[The New York Times]] |date=2008-10-04 |accessdate=2008-10-05 }}</ref> |
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In October Albuquerque Mayor [[Martin Chavez]] entered the race for the Democratic nomination.<ref>{{cite news | url=http://kob.com/article/stories/S220083.shtml?cat=500 | title=Chavez announces U.S. Senate run | publisher=[[KOB-TV]] |date=October 9, 2007 | first= | last= | accessdate = 2007-11-18}}</ref> In early November five-term Democratic Rep. [[Tom Udall]] entered the race.<ref>{{cite news |
In October Albuquerque Mayor [[Martin Chavez]] entered the race for the Democratic nomination.<ref>{{cite news | url=http://kob.com/article/stories/S220083.shtml?cat=500 | title=Chavez announces U.S. Senate run | publisher=[[KOB-TV]] |date=October 9, 2007 | first= | last= | accessdate = 2007-11-18}}</ref> In early November five-term Democratic Rep. [[Tom Udall]] entered the race.<ref>{{cite news|first= |last= |title=NM Rep. Tom Udall to Run for Senate |url=http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ilmYcsJz4U8IC8m_ox2SWgPj7DegD8SR39O80 |agency=[[Associated Press]] |date=November 11, 2007 |accessdate=2007-11-11 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/20071112061424/http://ap.google.com:80/article/ALeqM5ilmYcsJz4U8IC8m_ox2SWgPj7DegD8SR39O80 |archivedate=November 12, 2007 }}</ref> On December 7 Chavez withdrew from the race, saying "While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election."<ref>{{cite news | url=http://www.krqe.com/Global/story.asp?S=7468037 | title=Chávez drops out of U. S. Senate race | publisher=[[KRQE-TV]] |date=December 7, 2007 | first= | last= | accessdate = 2007-12-18}}</ref> |
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===Results=== |
===Results=== |
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pete Domenici decided to retire instead of seeking a seventh term. All three of New Mexico's U.S. Representatives (Tom Udall, Steve Pearce, and Heather Wilson) chose to retire from the U.S. House of Representatives in order to run for the seat. Pearce defeated Wilson in the Republican primary. Udall won the Democratic primary unopposed and won the general election. Udall's win ended 36 years of Republican control of this seat.
Background
In February 2007 Domenici indicated his intention to run for re-election.[1] By October 2007, he changed his mind, stating that because of the progression of a medical condition, he would not seek a seventh term.[2] Domenici also lost his chairmanship after Republicans lost control of the Senate in the 2006 Senate election, which may have inclined him against running. On June 3, 2008 Pearce and Udall won their respective nomination contests.[3]
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Tom Udall, U.S. Representative
Campaign
After Domenici announced he was not running, Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was considered a leading candidate for the seat, but in October he affirmed his commitment to his presidential nomination campaign.[4]
In October Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez entered the race for the Democratic nomination.[5] In early November five-term Democratic Rep. Tom Udall entered the race.[6] On December 7 Chavez withdrew from the race, saying "While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election."[7]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tom Udall | 141,629 | 100.00 | |
| Total votes | 141,629 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative
- Heather Wilson, U.S. Representative
Polling
| Source | Date | Pearce (R) | Wilson (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | May 15, 2008 | 49% | 46% |
| SurveyUSA | November 16–18, 2007 | 37% | 56% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Pearce | 57,953 | 51.29 | |
| Republican | Heather Wilson | 55,039 | 48.71 | |
| Total votes | 112,992 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Tom Udall (D), U.S. Congressman from New Mexico's 3rd congressional district 1999–present (campaign website)
- Steve Pearce, U.S. Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd congressional district 2003–present (campaign website)
Predictions
In February 2008 CQ Politics changed the rating of the election from 'No Clear Favorite' to 'Leans Democratic' citing polls.[9][10] In June, Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, considered New Mexico to be one of the top ten most competitive Senate races.[11] At the end of August, The Cook Political Report rated the race as 'Lean Democratic'.[12] At the end of September, The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race 'Likely Takeover'.[13]
Controversy
Domenici and Wilson were both being investigated by the Senate for their roles in the dismissal of prosecutor David Iglesias. This may have affected Wilson's chances in the 2008 election.[14]
In late October Pearce made 130,000 automated phone calls, which led Wilson to "cry foul."[15] At issue was Pearce's use of the phone calls to justify his opposition to the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) bill. The Wilson campaign claimed that "Pearce violated House ethics by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site."[16]
Finances
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) attempted to defend 23 Senate seats up for election in November. Committee chair Senator John Ensign identified the 10 most competitive Republican seats in June 2008. He was asked about the two Republican seats most likely to turn Democratic, Virginia and New Mexico. Ensign did not directly say whether the NRSC was considering walking away to work on other seats that can be won, but he said, "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win."[17]
Udall raised more than $801,000 prior to November 29.[18] Wilson had slightly less, including a November Washington fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney that netted $110,000, bringing her total to about $750,000.[19]
Debates
The candidates have agreed to three televised debates: October 15 on KOB-TV, October 18 on KRQE and October 26 on KOAT-TV. The AARP will co-sponsor the second debate and the Albuquerque Journal will co-sponsor the final debate. They will also appear together on Meet the Press in the fall.[20]
Polling
Pearce (R) v Udall (D)
| Source | Date | Pearce (R) | Udall (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | October 31, 2008 | 42% | 56% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 28, 2008 | 41% | 56% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 13, 2008 | 37% | 57% |
| Survey USA | October 13, 2008 | 40% | 58% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 1, 2008 | 41% | 55% |
| Survey USA | September 29–30, 2008 | 39% | 58% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 19, 2008 | 37% | 57% |
| Survey USA | September 16, 2008 | 41% | 56% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 8, 2008 | 44% | 51% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 20, 2008 | 44% | 52% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 24, 2008 | 35% | 61% |
| SurveyUSA | May 15, 2008 | 36% | 60% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 14, 2008 | 37% | 53% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 10, 2008 | 40% | 54% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 29, 2008 | 42% | 50% |
| New Mexico State University | February 11, 2008 | 31% | 53% |
| SurveyUSA | November 16–18, 2007 | 40% | 54% |
| Research 2000 | November 5–7, 2007 | 37% | 54% |
| SurveyUSA | October 27–30, 2007 | 40% | 56% |
| Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates | October 23–27, 2007 | 33% | 50% |
| SurveyUSA | October 5–7, 2007 | 37% | 55% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tom Udall | 505,128 | 61.33% | +26.37% | |
| Republican | Steve Pearce | 318,522 | 38.67% | −26.37% | |
| Majority | 186,606 | 22.66% | −7.43% | ||
| Turnout | 823,650 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | ||||
References
- ^ Talhelm, Jennifer (2007-02-13). "Domenici: 'I am running' in 2008". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved 2007-02-14.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ Murray, Shailagh (2007-10-05). "Citing Health, GOP's Domenici says he'll retire from Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2007-10-05.
- ^ Election.KOB.com – Pearce narrowly wins U.S. Senate nomination
- ^ "Richardson Sticks with Presidential Bid". The New York Times. Associated Press. 2008-10-04. Retrieved 2008-10-05.
- ^ "Chavez announces U.S. Senate run". KOB-TV. October 9, 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-18.
- ^ "NM Rep. Tom Udall to Run for Senate". Associated Press. November 11, 2007. Archived from the original on November 12, 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-11.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ "Chávez drops out of U. S. Senate race". KRQE-TV. December 7, 2007. Retrieved 2007-12-18.
- ^ a b http://www.sos.state.nm.us/08PrimResults/StatewidePrim08.pdf
- ^ "Democratic Udall Running Strong in New Mexico Senate Race". CQ Politics. February 11, 2008. Retrieved 2008-12-18.
- ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate CQ Politics
- ^ Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections The New York Times, June 13, 2008
- ^ 2008 Senate Race Chart The Cook Race Ratings, August 21, 2008
- ^ 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, September 14, 2008
- ^ "Wilson, Possibly Udall To Seek Domenici's Senate Seat". The Gate. October 4, 2008. Retrieved 2007-10-18.
- ^ "Pearce calls voters, Wilson cries foul". KOB. 2007-10-22. Retrieved 2007-11-18.
- ^ "Senate hopefuls don't inspire". Alamogordo Daily News. October 31, 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-18.
- ^ Davis, Susan (June 12, 2008). "Sen. Ensign Says GOP Majority Would Be 'Fairly Miraculous'". Wall Street Journal blog.
- ^ "Ten things to know about Senate hopeful Rep. Tom Udall". Albuquerque Tribune. November 29, 2007. Retrieved 2007-12-11.
- ^ "Wilson pulls $110,000 at Cheney fundraiser". The Hill. November 16, 2007. Retrieved 2007-12-11.
- ^ Senate candidates agree on 3 NM televised debates AP, August 17, 2008
- ^ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2008/2008Stat.htm#stateNM
External links
- Elections from the New Mexico Secretary of State
- U.S. Congress candidates for New Mexico at Project Vote Smart
- New Mexico, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- New Mexico U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- New Mexico U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets.org
- Pearce (R) vs Udall (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites
- People for Pearce, Republican candidate
- Tom Udall for Senate, Democratic candidate