2011 Ontario general election

Ontario general election, 2011

October 6, 2011
107 seats in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario
First party Second party   Leader Dalton McGuinty Tim Hudak Party Liberal Party of Ontario Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario Leader since 1996 July 2009 Leader's seat Ottawa South Niagara West—Glanbrook Last election 71 26   Third party Fourth party   Leader Andrea Horwath Mike Schreiner Party Ontario New Democratic Party Green Party of Ontario Leader since March 2009 November 2009 Leader's seat Hamilton Centre Ran in the Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock by-election (lost) Last election 10 0
Premier before election Dalton McGuinty Liberal Party of Ontario Elected Premier TBD

The 40th Ontario general election, barring the possibilities of a motion of no confidence from Liberal backbenchers, war, or an early dissolution of parliament, will occur on October 6, 2011. It will elect members of the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario. The Ontario Liberal Party formed a majority government in the 2007 election, with the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario serving as the Official Opposition and the Ontario New Democratic Party serving as a third party.

Under amendments passed by the Legislature in 2004, Ontario elections are now held on fixed dates: the first Thursday of October every four years.

Party Leadership

In March 2009, Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader John Tory stepped down as leader with a successor Tim Hudak chosen by a PC leadership election. Also in March 2009, Andrea Horwath replaced Howard Hampton as leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party at the 2009 NDP leadership election. Thus, both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP will go into the election with a new leader. Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong stepped down in November, 2009, their leadership convention confirmed Mike Schreiner as their new Leader. Dalton McGuinty won 95% support for his leadership at an Ontario Liberal AGM after the 2007 election, and has declared that he will be running again in 2011.

Target seats

The following is a list of the ten ridings most narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2007 election. Listed is the name of the riding, the winning party, and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

This list has been made with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

Liberal	Progressive Conservative
Halton (PC), 1.3% Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington (PC), 2.1% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek (NDP), 2.5% Newmarket—Aurora (PC), 2.9% Burlington (PC), 3.5% Thornhill (PC), 3.6% Cambridge (PC), 7.6% Whitby—Oshawa (PC), 8.0% Nickel Belt (NDP), 8.6% Sarnia—Lambton (PC), 8.9%	Nipissing (LIB), 1.1% Barrie (LIB), 2.9% Kitchener—Conestoga (LIB), 4.8% Eglinton—Lawrence (LIB), 5.6% Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale (LIB), 6.6% Lambton—Kent—Middlesex (LIB), 6.9% Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry (LIB), 9.9% Don Valley West (LIB), 10.7% London—Fanshawe (LIB), 11.3% Oak Ridges—Markham (LIB), 11.8%
New Democratic	Green
Thunder Bay—Atikokan (LIB), 0.2% York South—Weston (LIB), 1.5% Timiskaming—Cochrane (LIB), 2.3% Hamilton Mountain (LIB), 3.7% Ottawa Centre (LIB), 4.0% Davenport (LIB), 5.0% Algoma—Manitoulin (LIB), 6.0% Oshawa (PC), 6.3% Thunder Bay—Superior North (LIB), 8.5% Sarnia—Lambton (PC), 11.5%	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound (PC), 13.5%

Opinion Polls

Polling Firm	Date of Polling	Link	Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal align="center"| Liberal	Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives align="center"| Progressive Conservative	Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP align="center"| New Democratic	Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Green align="center"| Green
Nanos Research	February 10, 2010	PDF	41.4	37.9	12.8	7.9
Ipsos Reid	December 13, 2009	HTML	38	34	15	10
Angus Reid	December 4, 2009	PDF	27	41	20	11
Nanos Research	October 25, 2009	PDF	37	35	17	10
Environics	June, 2009	HTML	44	32	16	8
Environics	April, 2009	HTML	44	29	17	11
Environics	June, 2008	HTML	41	31	16	12
Environics	March, 2008	HTML	38	30	19	12
Environics	December, 2008	HTML	45	34	18	2
Environics	October, 2007	HTML	44	31	22	--
Election 2007	October 10, 2007	HTML	42.3	31.6	16.8	8.0

External links

• Election Almanac - Ontario Provincial Election 2011