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2011 Polish parliamentary election

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Polish parliamentary election, 2011
← 2007 9 October 2011
All 460 seats to the Sejm
231 seats are needed for a majority in the Sejm
All 100 seats to the Senate of Poland
 
Leader Donald Tusk Jarosław Kaczyński Grzegorz Napieralski
Party PO PiS Democratic Left Alliance
Leader since 1 June 2003 18 January 2003 31 May 2008
Leader's seat 19 – Warsaw I 19 – Warsaw I 41 – Szczecin
Last election 209 seats, 41.5% 166 seats, 32.1% 53 seats, 13.2%
 
Leader Waldemar Pawlak Paweł Kowal Janusz Palikot
Party PSL Poland Comes First RP
Leader since 29 January 2005 4 June 2011 22 October 2010
Leader's seat 16 – Płock None 19 – Warsaw I
Last election 31 seats, 8.9% Did not stand Did not stand
Incumbent Prime Minister

Donald Tusk
PO



A parliamentary election to both the Sejm and the Senate will be held in Poland on 9 October 2011. The last election, in 2007, resulted in a Civic Platform–Polish People's Party government. All seats of both houses are up for re-election.

Civic Platform, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, is aiming for re-election: a feat that hasn't been achieved since Poland became a democracy. The Polish People's Party (PSL) (the minority governing party) has said that it wishes to continue its governing coalition with Civic Platform (PO) after the election.[1]

Election date

The date of the election, October 9, was set by the President of Poland, Bronisław Komorowski,[2] and announced on July 4. The latest possible date for the election to be held was 30 October 2011,[2] four years after the previous election. Prior to the announcement of the election date, the most likely dates were thought to be 16 October or 23 October.[3]

Although the governing coalition has a strong majority, it was suggested that the elections be brought forward to the spring,[4] to avoid the campaign interrupting Poland's Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of the year.[5] The idea was supported by the Democratic Left Alliance and Poland Comes First, but firmly opposed by Law and Justice.[5] The Marshal of the Sejm, PO's Grzegorz Schetyna, said that he didn't believe that early elections would take place.[6]

Civic Platform favoured an election date of 23 October.[7] Since the State Electoral Commission decided that the 30th falls too close to the national holiday of All Saints,[8] and elections are always held on Sundays, 23 October was the latest possible date to hold the election. In the end, Komorowski decided on 9 October.

The idea of holding the election over two days instead of the usual one, to increase turnout, was raised.[7] An election over two days would cost 130-140 million złotych, compared to 90 million for a one-day election.[8] It was decided to hold it on a single day.

Parties

Civic Platform (PO), the largest governing party under prime minister Donald Tusk, is seeking reelection. Opinion polls over the past four years have fairly consistently shown the PO to have the largest level of popular support among Poland's political parties. A strong result for PO could deliver it majority government in its own right. Alternatively, should PO fail to win a majority, they may seek a coalition with the Polish People's Party (PSL), or possibly even with the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD).

Law and Justice Law and Justice (PiS), is Poland's second largest party as of 2007, and was the leading party of government from 2005-2007. PiS's greatest difficulty this election, is not only that it trails PO in popular support, but that even were it to outpoll the PO, it may have difficulty in finding other parties willing to enter into a coalition with it. Jarosław Kaczyński publicly denied the possibility of allying his party with the post-communist SLD and relations with the PSL (traditionally viewed by the media as an opportunist coalition partner, ready to form a coalition with everyone) have remained tense, especially since Adam Hofman's recent statement in which he attacked PSL members in an abusive manner following the airing of the People's Party newest electoral TV spot. A grand coalition of PiS with PO is a very unlikely possibility, given the mutual animosity of these two large entities.

Democratic Left Alliance Poland's strongest left-wing party, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) has struggled since 2005 to regain its position as one of the countries two largest parties. A strong vote for SLD at this election or a poor showing for PSL (PO's most likely coalition partner) could force the PO to seek SLD out as a coalition partner, should that need arise.

Polish People's Party The Polish People's Party (PSL) is an agrarian party which primarily represents rural areas. It is currently the minority partner in a coalition government with PO. Although some opinion polls show popular support for PSL to be dangerously close to the 5% electoral threshold, PSL generally performs a little better than opinion polls indicate. It is widely seen as a coalition partner for every party that happens to need such.

Poland Comes First A new party on the Polish political scene, Poland Comes First (PJN), emerged as a splinter group from PiS, following the Polish presidential election, 2010. PJN's future parliamentary representation is uncertain, given that most opinion polls show support levels for PJN to be below the 5% electoral threshold. The party has suffered an almost constant internal crisis since its very foundation that led many of its MPs to leave it for the other parties in Parliament, including the most famous one, chairwoman Joanna Kluzik-Rostkowska, who joined the PO. Commentators argue that the PJN failed to establish itself as a real alternative on the political scene, being widely perceived as nothing but a milder variant of the party it had once left.

Palikot's Movement Palikot's Movement (Ruch Palikota), officially the Movement of Support (Ruch Poparcia, RP), is a breakaway faction of the PO that followed MP Janusz Palikot after he had been expelled from the party for his "scandalous" remarks on late President Lech Kaczyński. Like the PJN, the Movement is seen as one of the six parties that, based on the recent polls' results, have a factual chance of entering Parliament. The RP is distinctive on Poland's political scene in that it is the first party in the country's history that puts strong emphasis on its program's anticlerical features (the usual practice being that parties either try to win the Church's unofficial support or at least do not try to appear anti-Church) along with appeals for putting an end to the anti-abortion policy and introducing civil unions for same-sex couples. In terms of economy, the RP blends leftist and rightist ideas.

Other parties The only other party contesting all 41 electoral districts for the Sejm in 2011, is the Polish Labour Party (PPP). The remaining parties include Congress of the New Right (KNP) (21 districts), Right of the Republic (PR) (20 districts), Our Homeland Poland (NDP) (9 districts) and German Minority group (MN) (1 district). With the exception of the German Minority group (which as an ethnic minority party is exempt from the 5% election threshold requirement), these parties are not expected to poll the required 5% to enter the Sejm. Some other minor parties, have decided not to contest the elections independently, opting instead to negotiate a place for their candidates on the electoral lists of the larger parties. These parties may still manage to have some of their candidates elected in this way.

Opinion polls

Date Source Polling Agency PO PiS SLD PSL PJN RP PPP Others Unsure who to vote for Unsure whether to vote at all Will not vote Source
5 October 2011 TVP Info TNS OBOP 32% 21% 9% 6% 1% 7% 0% - 24% - – [1]
4 October 2011 - PPSP 31% 31% 12% 8% 2% 7% 1% 0% 9% – – [2]
4 October 2011 Newsweek Polska Estymator 35% 28% 11% 10% 5% 9% 0% 2% - – – [3]
4 October 2011 TVP Info TNS OBOP 31% 21% 6% 6% 1% 8% 0% 1% 26% - – [4]
3 October 2011 Wybory2011 WAW 32% 31% 12% 7% 3% 6% 1% 1% 8% – – [5]
3 October 2011 Puls Wyborczy Marcin Palade 32% 30% 11% 10% 5% 9% 1% 2% – – – [6]
3 October 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 32% 29% 11% 8% 2% 8% 0% 1% 9% – – [7]
3 October 2011 TVN 24 SMG/KRC 32% 29% 10% 5% 2% 8% - 3% - - - [8]
2 October 2011 - PPSP 30% 31% 13% 7% 2% 7% 1% 0% 9% – – [9]
2 October 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 30% 29% 10% 10% 2% 9% 0% - 10% – – [10]
2 October 2011 Puls Wyborczy Marcin Palade 33% 31% 12% 9% 4% 8% 1% 2% – – – [11]
1 October 2011 TVP Info TNS OBOP 31% 22% 6% 6% 2% 7% 1% - 25% - – [12] [13]
1 October 2011 Wybory2011 WAW 30% 31% 13% 8% 4% 5% 1% 1% 8% - - [14]
29 September 2011 TVN 24 SMG/KRC 34% 29% 8% 6% 3% 7% - - 4% 16% 22% [15]
28 September 2011 Puls Wyborczy Marcin Palade 34% 31% 12% 9% 4% 7% 1% 2% – – – [16]
28 September 2011 Wybory2011 WAW 31% 29% 13% 6% 3% 5% 1% 1% 11% – – [17]
28 September 2011 Wirtualna Polska Homo Homini 35% 28% 13% 8% 1% 6% 1% 1% 9% – – [18]
27 September 2011 PPSP 31% 30% 13% 7% 2% 4% 1% - 12% – – [19]
27 September 2011 Newsweek Polska Estymator 37% 29% 11% 7% 5% 8% 1% 2% - – – [20] [21]
26 September 2011 RMF FM SMG/KRC 36% 32% 8% 5% - 7% - - 12% – – [22]
26 September 2011 Wybory2011 WAW 30% 30% 13% 7% 1% 3% 1% 1% 14% – – [23]
25 September 2011 - PPSP 32% 29% 13% 7% 1% 4% 1% 1% 12% – – [24]
24 September 2011 Puls Wyborczy Marcin Palade 33% 32% 13% 8% 4% 7% 1% 2% – – – [25]
24 September 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 33% 28% 12% 9% 1% 4% - - 13% – – [26]
23 September 2011 Wybory2011 WAW 35% 28% 15% 6% 3% 4% 0% 1% 8% – – [27]
21 September 2011 - PPSP 33% 29% 15% 6% 1% 5% 0% 1% 10% – – [28]
21 September 2011 - Estymator 35% 30% 14% 7% 4% 8% 1% 2% - – – [29]
21 September 2011 Wirtualna Polska Homo Homini 36% 28% 14% 7% 1% 5% - 1% 14% – – [30]
19 September 2011 Wybory2011 WAW 34% 28% 14% 6% 2% 4% 1% 1% 10% – – [31]
19 September 2011 RMF FM SMG/KRC 35% 29% 13% 5% 1% 6% - 3% 8% – – [32]
17 September 2011 - PPSP 31% 28% 15% 6% 3% 5% 0% 1% 11% – – [33]
17 September 2011 Puls Wyborczy Marcin Palade 35% 31% 13% 8% 4% 6% 1% 2% – – – [34]
17 September 2011 TVP Info TNS OBOP 40% 33% 11% 7% 1% 5% - 3% - - – [35]
17 September 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 35% 26% 13% 6% 1% 3% - - - - - [36]
16 September 2011 - Estymator 36% 29% 15% 7% 4% 6% 1% 2% - - – [37]
16 September 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 18% 17% 5% 3% 2% 4% - 1% 31% 7% – [38]
14 September 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 44% 32% 11% 4% 1% 3% ? ? ? ? ? [39]
13 September 2011 Wirtualna Polska Homo Homini 33% 29% 12% 6% 1% 4% - 1% 14% – – [40]
12 September 2011 TVN24 SMG/KRC 35% 29% 10% 7% 2% 4% ? ? ? ? ? [41]
11 September 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 31% 29% 14% 7% 1% 4% ? ? ? ? ? [42]
10 September 2011 Puls Wyborczy Marcin Palade 33% 32% 14% 8% 5% 5% - 3% – – – [43]
7 September 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 46% 29% 11% 7% - 3% ? ? ? ? ? [44]
5 September 2011 TVN24 SMG/KRC 38% 30% 10% 4% - 3% ? ? ? ? ? [45]
2 September 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 32% 24% 12% 7% 3% 2% ? ? ? ? ? [46]
30 August 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 47% 29% 13% 4% 1% 2% ? ? ? ? ? [47]
25 August 2011 - CBOS 36% 20% 8% 4% - - - 2% ? ? ? [48]
19 August 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 34% 25% 15% 7% 3% 1% ? ? ? ? ? [49] [50]
19 August 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 48% 30% 11% 5% 1% 2% - 3% 19 % – – [51]
5 August 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 26% 15% 7% - - ? ? ? ? ? [52]
29 July 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 33.4% 27.3% 14.4% 6.6% 1.2% 1% - ? 14,7% 11.1% ? [53]
25 July 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 47% 30% 11% 5% 1% 2% - - - - - [54]
15 July 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 34.5% 29.1% 11.5% 6.4% 1.6% 1.1% ? ? ? 10% 38.5% [55]
14 July 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 50% 27% 12% 3% 2% 1% - 3% – – – [56]
13 July 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 45% 28% 13% 6% - - - - - - - [57]
8 July 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 34% 27.3% 12.7% 5.4% ? ? ? ? 16.5% 7.5% 39.7% [58]
1 July 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 29% 15% 7% 2% 1% - 9% [59]
25 June 2011 Super Express Homo Homini 38% 29% 15% 7% 4% - - 7% [60]
19 June 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 38% 29% 13% 6% 3% 1% - 7% [61]
12 June 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 36% 29% 15% 7% 4% - - 9% [62]
9 June 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 44% 25% 16% 4% 2% 1% - 8% [63] [64]
4 June 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 34% 29% 17% 8% 2% 1% - 9% [65]
21 May 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 26% 15% 7% 2% 1% - 12% [66]
10 May 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 44% 27% 18% 4% 2% - - 5% [67]
8 May 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 33% 27% 17% 7% 3% 1% - 12% [68]
2 May 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 31% 26% 18% 8% 2% 1% - 14% [69]
22 April 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 32% 27% 17% 8% 2% 1% - 13% [70] [71]
20 April 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 40% 26% 18% 5% - - - 11% [72]
20 April 2011 TVN24 SMG/KRC 38% 29% 15% 3% 2% 1% - 12% [73]
11 April 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 39% 27% 18% 6% 2% 1% - 7% [74]
11 April 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 33% 30% 15% 8% - - - 14% [75]
8 April 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 32% 29% 17% 7% 5% - - 10% [76]
1 April 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 31% 26% 16% 7% 3% 1% - 16% [77]
30 March 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 46% 29% 15% 5% - - - 5% [78]
25 March 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 32% 25% 16% 8% 4% 2% - 13% [79]
23 March 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 44% 24% 15% 6% 1% 2% - 8% [80]
18 March 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 25% 17% 8% 3% 3% - 7% [81]
14 March 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 43% 31% 15% 5% - - - 6% [82]
12 March 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 33% 26% 18% 7% 4% 2% - 10% [83]
9 March 2011 TVN24 CBOS 35% 18% 16% 4% 3% 1% - 23% [84]
9 March 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 47% 24% 15% 5% 3% 2% - 4% [85]
6 March 2011 TVN24 SMG/KRC 38% 27% 14% 6% 2% 1% - 12% [86]
4 March 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 30% 28% 16% 9% 2% 1% - 14% [87]
2 March 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 45% 29% 16% 5% 1% 1% - 3% [88]
25 February 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 35% 29% 14% 7% 3% 1% - 11% [89]
24 February 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 44% 26% 18% 7% 3% 1% - 1% [90] [91]
24 February 2011 TVN24 SMG/KRC 36% 30% 16% 5% 4% 1% - 8% [92]
24 February 2011 Super Express Homo Homini 33% 31% 15% 6% 5% - - 10% [93]
23 February 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 44% 27% 12% 6% 2% 4% - 5% [94]
18 February 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 31% 27% 16% 8% 5% 3% - 10% [95] [96]
16 February 2011 Rzeczpospolita PBS DGA 35% 22% 14% 4% 5% 4% - 16% [97] [98]
16 February 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 46% 30% 12% 5% - - - 7% [99] [100]
11 February 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 32% 28% 16% 7% 5% 2% - 10% [101] [102]
11 February 2011 Telewizja Polska TNS OBOP 43% 26% 21% 4% 3% - - 3% [103]
9 February 2011 TVN24 CBOS 37% 20% 12% 4% 4% - - 23% [104]
6 February 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 41% 26% 13% 7% 6% 2% - 5% [105]
6 February 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 34% 28% 15% 7% 7% 2% - 7% [106] [107]
31 January 2011 TVN24 SMG/KRC 37% 29% 16% 3% 4% - - 11% [108]
29 January 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 38% 25% 19% 6% 3% 3% - 6% [109] [110]
28 January 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 33% 27% 16% 9% 7% 2% - 6% [111]
21 January 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 28% 14% 7% 4% 2% - 8% [112]
21 January 2011 TVN24 SMG/KRC 39% 29% 13% 5% 3% 1% - 10% [113]
17 January 2011 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 45% 30% 12% 5% 1% 2% - 5% [114]
16 January 2011 Telewizja Polska TNS OBOP 42% 29% 18% 6% 2% 1% - 2% [115]
14 January 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 36% 26% 14% 7% 5% - - 12% [116]
12 January 2011 TVN24 CBOS 39% 20% 9% 6% 3% 1% - 22% [117]
10 January 2011 Gazeta Wyborcza TNS OBOP 54% 24% 11% 3% 3% 1% - 4% [118]
8 January 2011 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 24% 15% 8% 5% 1% - 10% [119]
5 January 2011 TVN24 SMG/KRC 38% 28% 13% 6% 3% 2% - 10% [120]
31 December 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 34% 24% 17% 8% 5% 3% - 9% [121]
19 December 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 35% 25% 15% 8% 5% 3% - 9% [122][123][124]
13 December 2010 TVN24 SMG/KRC 40% 25% 13% 6% 8% 2% - 6% [125]
13 December 2010 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 53% 25% 11% 6% 2% - - 3% [126]
12 December 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 26% 16% 9% 6% 1% - 5% [127][128]
27 November 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 24% 14% 8% 6% 2% - 9% [129][130]
24 November 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 36% 21% 18% 11% 9% 5% - 1% [131]
24 November 2010 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 45% 33% 10% 8% 1% 1% - 2% [132]
22 November 2010 Rzeczpospolita GfK Polonia 54% 26% 10% 6% 2% 1% - 1% [133]
19 November 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 39% 21% 17% 9% - - - 14% [134]
12 November 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 40% 16% 15% 8% 8% 6% - 7% [135]
7 November 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 37% 23% 16% 8% - - - 16% [136]
11 October 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 38% 27% 14% 5% - 5% - 11% [137]
3 October 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 36% 28% 15% 5% - 4% - 12% [138]
12 September 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 41% 29% 13% 5% - - - 12% [139]
12 September 2010 Telewizja Polska TNS OBOP 52% 25% 20% - - - - 3% [140]
5 September 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 41% 28% 14% 5% - - - 12% [141]
28 August 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 43% 30% 14% 5% - - - 8% [142]
14 August 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 46% 28% 12% 4% - - - 10% [143]
16 May 2010 Polskie Radio Homo Homini 40% 35% 8% 7% - - - 10% [144]
21 October 2007 General election N/A 41.5% 32.1% 13.2% 8.9% — — 0.99% 3.4%

References

  1. ^ "PSL want to continue coalition in next year's general election". TheNews.pl. Polskie Radio. 18 November 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  2. ^ a b "President to choose election date". TheNews.pl. Polskie Radio. 24 February 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  3. ^ http://www.wbj.pl/article-53504-parliamentary-elections-on-october-16-or-23.html?typ=ise
  4. ^ "An interview with Joanna Kluzik-Rostkowska". The Economist. 1 December 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  5. ^ a b "Spring elections before Poland's EU presidency?". TheNews.pl. Polskie Radio. 10 December 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  6. ^ "'Poland should hold election during EU presidency'". TheNews.pl. Polskie Radio. 3 January 2011. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  7. ^ a b "PM and president discuss possible election date". TheNews.pl. Polskie Radio. 2 March 2011. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  8. ^ a b "State commission gives possible election dates". TheNews.pl. Polskie Radio. 24 February 2011. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
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