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Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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References

Human-caused: more than half, 110%, or 160%?

I can't find the relevant discussions now, but I know that this has been brought up here fairly recently. AR5 says, "It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in GMST," which, while undeniably true, is extremely weak. This mainstream news article tackles the very issue head-on, and cites relevant studies. It turns out that human greenhouse gases are responsible for 160% of the observed rise in surface temperatures 1951 - 2010, but other human factors such as smog result in -50%, leaving a human contribution of 110%, with relatively small error bars. The 10% is probably in the deep ocean waiting for the next major El Nino event to bring it to the surface. The linked article is fairly explicit about Judith Curry's views too, which might be of interest to those on the List of scientists... article. --Nigelj (talk) 19:04, 15 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Sounds about right William M. Connolley (talk) 20:40, 15 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I don't know if I get it. From 1951 to 2010 the observed surface temperatures rose N degrees. So N is 100% of the rise in observed surface temperatures during that period. If human greenhouse gasses caused 160% of N, then they caused 60% more of the rise in observed surface temperatures than were observed, which would be a contradiction, since 160 ≠ 100, unless there was more of a rise in observed surface temperatures than were observed, which means we're not talking about observed surface temperatures after all, but observed plus unobserved potential surface temperatures, right? Now I can see where the greenhouse gasses can be identified as the cause of 100% of the actually observed rise in the surface temperature (N), and that means greenhouse gasses must be the cause of the additional unobserved potential 60% portion of the rise. Then the non-greenhouse-gas(?) human factors of smog etc. subtract 50 percentage points from the unobserved potential greenhouse-gas-caused rise in surface temperatures leaving a net human contribution to the observed plus unobserved potential rise in surface temperatures of 110%. The remaining 10 percentage points of the unobserved potential rise in surface temperatures is probably in the deep ocean, but not hidden due to human causes, meaning that the human contribution to the rise in surface temperatures from 1951 to 2010 is 100% of the observed plus 10% more unobserved potential rise. But since N is a fixed constant equal to 100% of itself, there can be no such thing as 160% of the rise in OBSERVED surface temperatures, right? —Blanchette (talk) 22:35, 16 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

This discussion reminds me of the expression “giving 110% effort”. All one can give is 100%. Think pie chart - a pie chart showing the maximum percentage is all one color and is 100%. This is fourth grade math.--CSvBibra (talk) 18:33, 17 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I think you mis-read it, N. After quoting the IPCC text you reference, the source says

It’s not just “more than half,” it’s also most likely close to 100%. In fact it’s just as likely that humans are responsible for about 160% of the global surface warming since 1950 as it is that we’re only responsible for 50%.

That's a rhetorical way of saying our text "more than half" is nonsense. Which it is, but we still have to follow the sources, and IPCC said what it said. If there is an agreeable consensus statement to substitute, let's talk about it. Though as you may have noticed I have greatly curtailed my wiki time. As a side note, although I respect those authors immensely, their column in the Guardian is billed as a blog. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:28, 19 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

This isn't an argument I'm interested in 'winning' at this stage (as NEAG is quite right about the IPCC text, reliable sources etc), but I do like clarity: It is perfectly possible for a contribution to something to equal more than 100% of the final something. Suppose your bank account balance has risen by $1000 during the past year. There is no reason why I couldn't have given you $1600 during the year (160% of the final increase). Maybe you gave me $500 back at various times. If nothing else was going on, that would have left you with $1100, so maybe you have a standing order for $8.33 a month to someone else set up somewhere? The article also says, "The curve is centered at about 110% – the most likely value for the human contribution to global warming."--Nigelj (talk) 11:47, 29 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

An excellent point! I think best we'll manage in the lead of this top level article is to retain the IPCC's "most" language. Are you happy with the way the body of the article discusses this? How about at Attribution of global warming? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:14, 29 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

My amateur interpretation is that this deals with ranges of uncertainty, taking as a basis for discussion AR5 Chapter 10 pp. 883– 884. "Over the 1951–2010 period, the observed GMST increased by approximately 0.6°C." The best assessment is that forcings from increases in greenhouse gas likely contributed an increase 0.5°C to 1.3°C, other anthropogenic forcings likely contributed –0.6°C to 0.1°C. In December 2013 the same (news)blog authors argued that overall human forcings balanced out at approximately 0.6°C, and the IPCC text supported approximately 100% contribution. In this more recent post, they cite Gavin Schmidt's reading of Figure 10.5 which clearly shows the central estimate of net human caused effect exceeding the measured effect: "Reading off the graph, it is 0.7±0.2ºC (5-95%) with the observed warming 0.65±0.06 (5-95%). The attribution then follows as having a mean of ~110%, with a 5-95% range of 80–130%." In other words, the average estimate of net human caused forcing is around 110% of the measured increase, it's extremely likely that human forcings were in the 80–130% range of the measured amount. Any variation from 100% would then be balanced by natural forcings or internal variability, each of which was estimated at –0.1°C to 0.1°C. From which, the IPCC summary on p. 869 looks rather understated: "It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in GMST from 1951 to 2010." . . dave souza, talk 14:07, 29 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I think the use of percentages greater than 100% is a mistake. I understand the point being made, but think the usage lacks clarity. If the warming plus cooling from all sources is (say) 4 degrees, and that warming plus cooling from human causes is 3 degrees, then it is clearer to say that 75% of the warming is from human causes. Rick Norwood (talk) 20:06, 30 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Do we yet have a suggestion for an article tweak? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:41, 30 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

This article not NPOV.

This thread is standard WP:SOAP and WP:FORUM which omits specific article-improvement suggestions based on WP:Reliable sources; collapsed per the WP:Talk page guidelines...... Click show to read anyway

This article is not NPOV. There are at least 57 scientists I can find that disagree in some way or other with anthropogenic "global warming." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming. This article heavily emphasizes consensus. Watch out. If a vote were taken by 10 people that John should take out the trash, then what would Johns vote count? That would be consensus of course. Also consensus means nothing in Science. Consensus merely determines who is president of the USA or whether a new law should be passed or not. If 99% of individuals have consensus and only 1% are correct then what does consensus mean? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.199.125.229 (talk) 14:51, 24 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

You seem to confuse consensus with majority. Physical reality is indeed unaffected by majority or consensus. In fact, it's even unaffected by the quality of an argument. But in determining which explanation of reality is more useful and more likely to be a good approximation, consensus among experts is a very strong measure. If you go to 100 physicians for that lump under the skin, 97 of which tell you to get an operation followed by chemo, while 3 disagree with the consensus, one saying you should take two aspirins and plenty of orange juice, one saying that you should change to organic food, and the last one saying that you should buy his particular brand of Bach flower remedies, what would you do? Our article rightly follows the 97% of experts. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 15:26, 24 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

What Stephan said. Also, you may want to read WP:FRINGE. Vanamonde93 (talk) 15:29, 24 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

This article has never had a Neutral Point of View, mainly because the people who edit it are the mad "scientists" who made up all the BS in the first place. For a start, the title is a lie. There is currently no global warming and there has not been any for 17 years. It only permits views from scientists - NOTE not SCIENCE but the views of the public sector academics who push this kind of non-science that "it's warming" when even a 10 year old can tell them it isn't. But you can't put in the obvious THAT IT'S NOT WARMING - because unless one of the morons in the public sector write a paper effectively saying "There's no need for my research", then you cannot get the alternative point of view. So, this article is just the eco-political views of a group of public sector employees with no track record of getting any predictions right and little or no real science with a sugar coating of scientifically sounding words to make it look like "science". — Preceding unsigned comment added by 82.30.52.236 (talk) 18:21, 25 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

incorrect link

The Scientific discussion section of this article has a link to Scientific opinion on climate change#Statements by dissenting organizations, which does not exist. (Rather, the article exists, but not the section of that article this link points to.) 70.112.237.191 (talk) 02:01, 28 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I've updated the link, thanks. Mikenorton (talk) 07:32, 28 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Food security deleted

I would like to delete the section on Global warming#Food security. I've previously written a critique of this section [1]. In my opinion, Global warming#Observed and expected effects on social systems already provides an adequate and brief summary on food impacts. There are sub-articles (effects of global warming and climate change and agriculture) that go into more detail. Enescot (talk) 07:42, 31 July 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Comment above reposted from [2]

I've gone ahead and deleted this section. The studies that were referred to are now mentioned in climate change and agriculture#Individual studies. Enescot (talk) 07:51, 29 September 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Neutrality

standard WP:FORUM and wiki and wiki ed bashing, devoid of RS based article improvement ideas contrary to WP:TPG Click 'show' to read anyway

This article says the earth is warming, and yet I keep reading scientific reports that it is not. http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/518497/Exclusive-interview-with-Dr-Benny-Peiser

Why is Global Warming "settled?" Is Wikipedia setting itself up to be embarrassed, similar to how the Catholic Church preached the sun revolved around the earth and then looked like fools later? Why are wikipedia articles on theories written in such a way to make it seem utterly factual and that any deviance from the "settled science" is an exercise in futility conducted by fools? I think Wikipedia, in general, is on dangerous footing when it presents theories without credible opposition, and does so in a manner that implies dissension as foolish. If a theory is subsequently proven false, it will permanently damage the scientific credibility of Wikipedia. Maybe wisdom and prudence here would be to allow more debate on this theory than make things appear as settled. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.97.233.134 (talk) 01:32, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I would suggest you read the section above, titled "This article is not NPOV." I don't think anybody is interested in rehashing that stuff. Vanamonde93 (talk) 01:36, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not trying to rehash anything (honestly), I just posted a link to an article that just came out. My concern is a philosophical one in general, that scientific articles on Wikipedia seem to take advocacy and agenda driven positions. I'm not countering global warming, I'm not a "denier", I am just a passive reader...a student, if you will, giving objective feedback. Wikipedia says that the earth is "unequivocally warming, and it is extremely likely"..notice the word "unequivocally" to imply basically that anyone who says otherwise is an idiot (forgive for lack of a better term, but that is precisely the implication). Basically, Wikipedia looks to be engaged in activism, in that this is "settled science". But this is an extremely dangerous game Wikipedia is playing. If the earth turns out NOT to be warming, guess who will look like the fool? To me, I see an agenda when I read Wikipedia scientific articles that very often minimize room for dissension, and I wish Wikipedia would not do that. I think articles on scientific theory should always allow rational room for dissension. I wish I could read dispassionate, objective presentations, but instead what I read are activist driven, agenda-driven 'science' with condescending implications against dissension. Dissension is a cornerstone of the advancement of science throughout history. And i see very little room here on WIkipedia for credible dissension. And I believe this is dangerous. I'm sorry if I am rehashing, but this is how I see it, and I am just another web reader. Maybe if you hear a similar complaint "often enough" it might start making a cumulative case, don't you think? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.97.233.134 (talk) 01:44, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

If I sounded like I was making assumptions, I apologize. What I meant was, people who participated in the previous (similar) discussion probably don't want to repeat those arguments. I would still recommend you read that discussion, and I really don't want to get into detail here; in brief, consensus among editors at this point is that covering the "controversy," as it were, would be giving it undue weight. Regards, Vanamonde93 (talk) 01:57, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Ahh yes, the tried and true Wikipedia method of silencing opposition...the ole' "Undue Weight" crutch. This is how you do it here on Wikipedia. You first determine, objectively, that your "settled science" has X amount of weight (as if you are qualified to make that to begin with since you are not an objective being) and then you decide empirically that all other possible dissensions are not "worthy" of the greatness of the original theory, hence they cannot be mentioned due to "Undue Weight". Imagine how many scientists throughout history would have never made a single discovery if they allowed a mob of college kids (mostly white males) to deny them rational dissension because of "Undue Weight". There IS valid counter theory to manmade global warming, I'm not saying it's true, but it is valid, whether or not you want to give it "weight", is irrelevant and has no bearing on objective truth. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 50.135.105.151 (talk) 20:53, 22 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

The claimed "scientific report" linked in the OP's first post is nothing of the kind. It's a shallow, populist grab bag of non-science from all over the place. HiLo48 (talk) 02:44, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed. For real scientific reports, read our cited references, and especially see the quoted text from US National Academy of Science.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 07:12, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

As a general rule, tabloids like the Daily Express are not reliable sources for anything, and in particular not for science issues. On the other hand, they thrive on fights, real or imagined. Benny Peiser is an anthropologist, not a climate scientist. Organisations that like to claim "unsettled science" or want headlines like to claim promote such people as "experts" when really their expertise is in other fields (if anywhere). Take a look at Peiser's publications (many of which are only edited, or published in low-quality pseudo-journals like Energy & Environment, which he also co-edited). How much do you find there that pertains to the physical processes of climate change? On the other hand, the IPCC, the US National Academy of Sciences, and even the Royal Society have put real and extensive expertise to the topic, and have published clear and highly regarded positions that show that yes, global warming is definitely happening, and much of it is anthropogenic with a degree of certainty that "withholding provisional consent would be perverse" (to use Stephen J. Gould's definition of "scientific fact"). Wikipedia dispassionately follows the expert opinion on scientific topics. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 08:18, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I have to agree that the responses to arguments and FAQs are more those of an advocate than an independent arbiter. As a control engineer I would view the increases leading up to the turn of the century as two lagged step responses, rather than the start of the exponential runaway heralded by the IPCC. Time series analysis would certainly not indicate that the following plateau would follow the escalating atmospheric content of carbon dioxide. Phrases such as "hottest decade in history" are emotionally biased, while not actually claiming the a further increase will occur. The significant point of the whole argument is not whether human activity has caused a change, but whether continuing the activity will exacerbate such change. It is incontrovertible that fuel emissions have caused the atmospheric increase in CO2, the tonnage burned accounting for around double the increase. Two points are debatable. The first is whether the increase can in fact be stemmed, when developing nations are escalating their burning much faster than be compensated for by economic sacrifice in the rest. The second, more important, is the extent to which further CO2 increases will actually cause warming. In contrast to the early activist propaganda that a 'layer' of CO2 was 'reflecting' radiation back to the surface, it is becoming realised that the effect is entirely due to the 'colouring' of the atmosphere. This means that while some radiation can pass directly to space, wavelengths in the 'coloured bands' can only reach space from higher altitudes, where temperatures are much lower due to the thermodynamic lapse rate. Heat must travel to those altitudes by convection or by diffusion, being repeatedly absorbed and reradiated. Radiation spectra exist from as early as 1970. In the ensuing years many such spectra have been measured but do not seem to have been published. By correlating these spectra against the substantial increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the ensuing years an objective assessment could be made, independent of speculation and modelling. 58.178.51.244 (talk) 23:30, 18 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Please concisely restate any RS-based article improvement suggestions contained in this thread. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:35, 19 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

It will be very bad for Wikipedia (but not for me, I will relish the day actually), and highly embarrassing for Wikipedia and it's authors when Science ultimately trumps political dogma. I firmly believe there is a strong political motive to "imposing" man made global warming as "settled science" by a lot of the young, mostly white male authors on Wikipedia (who are left leaning, by the way). Unfortunately, science cares not for the subjective whims of human beings, even if there are a lot of them that share the same political motive. Eventually, Wikipedia will look foolish because it did not allow deviance and presented theory as if it was factual, violating one of the fundamental principles of sound science: debate. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 50.135.105.151 (talk) 20:43, 22 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Policy section

There's some introductory text in global warming#Proposed policy responses to global warming that I think should be revised:

[...] These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions

The text on weighing the costs and benefits of policies is biased. The UNFCCC does not define the problem of climate change in terms of cost-benefit analysis, and economics is not the only way of interpreting this issue [3]. The second sentence is unnecessary because the distribution of impacts is already covered in global warming#Observed and expected environmental effects and global warming#Observed and expected effects on social systems.

Enescot (talk) 05:52, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for paying attention, E. Agree 2nd sentence should get the axe. The first sentence is subject to more than one interpretation. If you read with the assumption that "benefits" and "costs" is necessarily about economics (especially in a monetary sense) then of course I agree with you. It is equally valid to read those words to include intangibles like "Justice, equity and responsibility" (quoted from TOC of link you posted). How would you suggest fixing the first sentence's ambiguity? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 06:58, 6 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

In my view, it would be better to simply delete the entire paragraph, i.e.,:

There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be.^[1] These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.^[2]

Global warming#Discourse about global warming covers these issues, and I don't see why they need to be discussed here as well. Enescot (talk) 07:44, 15 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Now I'm confused about what you suggest keeping/deleting. How about replacing this comment and your prior comment with a restatement, using strikeout so we stay in synch? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 09:29, 15 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I want to remove this paragraph:

There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be.^[3] These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.^[4]

Enescot (talk) 07:02, 24 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

(A) Thanks for the handholding until I "got it"

(B) I agree to delete that; it does very little for us here

(C) Ccan you point to where we are currently elaborating on the equities mentioned in the first sentence and RS?

(D) Besides deleting that text, I also propose to change the section heading. Mitigation/Adaptation are described in an AR4 SYNTH highlighted bullet item as "options" rather than "policy options". The broader term "policy options" includes things like rate of deployment, who does what when, who pays, and how the equitities are balanced. That's important stuff, but I think the goal of this section is to report on the tools available in the toolbox, which stops short of decisions on what to build ("policy") with those tools. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:06, 24 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

(C), global warming#Discourse about global warming does mention fairness and equity issues as agreed internationally by parties to the UNFCCC. The section should be revised and updated some time.

(D) I agree with your suggested change.

Enescot (talk) 07:47, 1 November 2014 (UTC)[reply]

National Security

The Pentagon made a statement that global warming poses immediate risk to US national security. --76.175.67.121 (talk) 16:32, 14 October 2014 (UTC)[reply]

^ Banuri, et al., Chapter 3: Equity and Social Considerations, Section 3.1.2: Concepts of equity, p. 85 et seq. in IPCC SAR WG3 1996.
^ Banuri, et al., Chapter 3: Equity and Social Considerations, Section ??, p. 83, in IPCC SAR WG3 1996.
^ Banuri, et al., Chapter 3: Equity and Social Considerations, Section 3.1.2: Concepts of equity, p. 85 et seq. in IPCC SAR WG3 1996.
^ Banuri, et al., Chapter 3: Equity and Social Considerations, Section ??, p. 83, in IPCC SAR WG3 1996.

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[31] Banuri, et al., Chapter 3: Equity and Social Considerations, Section ??, p. 83, in IPCC SAR WG3 1996.

[32] Banuri, et al., Chapter 3: Equity and Social Considerations, Section 3.1.2: Concepts of equity, p. 85 et seq. in IPCC SAR WG3 1996.

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