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2018 Atlantic hurricane season

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2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 25, 2018
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameFlorence
 • Maximum winds130 mph (215 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure953 mbar (hPa; 28.14 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions7
Total storms7
Hurricanes3
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		1
Total fatalities15 total
Total damage> $125 million (2018 USD)
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and will end on November 30, 2018. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as shown by the formation of Subtropical Storm Alberto on May 25, marking the fourth consecutive year in which a storm developed before the official start of the season. The next storm, Beryl, became the first hurricane to form in the eastern Atlantic during the month of July since Bertha in 2008. With Chris's upgrade to a hurricane on July 10, the storm became the earliest second hurricane in a season since 2005. The season is the first since 1974 to see four subtropical storms. On September 5, Florence became the first major hurricane of the season.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2018 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1981–2010[1]) 12.1 6.4 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 7†
Record low activity 4 2† 0†
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR[2] December 7, 2017 15 7 3
CSU[3] April 5, 2018 14 7 3
TSR[4] April 5, 2018 12 6 2
NCSU[5] April 16, 2018 14–18 7–11 3–5
TWC[6] April 19, 2018 13 7 2
NOAA[7] May 24, 2018 10–16 5–9 1–4
UKMO[8] May 25, 2018 11* 6* N/A
TSR[9] May 30, 2018 9 4 1
CSU[10] May 31, 2018 14 6 2
CSU[11] July 2, 2018 11 4 1
TSR[12] July 5, 2018 9 4 1
CSU[13] August 2, 2018 12 5 1
TSR[14] August 6, 2018 11 5 1
NOAA[15] August 9, 2018 9–13 4–7 0–2

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Actual activity
 7 3 1
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had recently formed in November 2017.[16] On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.[1]

Pre-season outlooks

The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 7, 2017, which predicted a slightly above-average season in 2018, with a total of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[2] On April 5, 2018, CSU released its forecast, predicting a slightly above-average season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[3] TSR released its second forecast on the same day, predicting a slightly-below average hurricane season, with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, the reduction in both the number and size of storms compared to its first forecast being due to recent anomalous cooling in the far northern and tropical Atlantic.[4] Several days later, on April 16, North Carolina State University released its predictions, forecasting an above-average season, with 14–18 named storms, 7–11 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes.[5] On April 19, The Weather Company released its first forecasts, predicting 2018 to be a near-average season, with a total of 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.[6] On May 24, NOAA released their first forecasts, calling for a near to above average season in 2018.[7] On May 25, the UK Met Office released their prediction, predicting 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of approximately 105 units.[8] In contrast, on May 30, TSR released their updated prediction, significantly reducing their numbers to 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane, citing a sea surface temperature setup analogous of those observed during the cool phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.[9] On May 31, one day before the season officially began, CSU updated their forecast to include Subtropical Storm Alberto, also decreasing their numbers due to anomalous cooling in the tropical and far northern Atlantic.[10]

Mid-season outlooks

On July 2, CSU updated their forecast once more, lowering their numbers again to 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, citing the continued cooling in the Atlantic and an increasing chance of El Niño forming later in the year.[11] TSR released their fourth forecast on July 5, retaining the same numbers as their previous forecast.[12] On August 2, CSU updated their forecast again, increasing their numbers to 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, citing the increasing chance of a weak El Niño forming later in the year.[13] Four days later, TSR issued their final forecast for the season, slightly increasing their numbers to 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and only one major hurricane, with the reason of having two unexpected hurricanes forming by the beginning of July.[14] On August 9, 2018, NOAA revised its predictions, forecasting a below-average season with 9–13 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the remainder of the 2018 season.[15]

Seasonal summary

Main article: Timeline of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Tropical Storm Gordon (2018)Hurricane BerylSubtropical Storm AlbertoSaffir–Simpson scale

For the fourth consecutive year, activity began early with the formation of Subtropical Storm Alberto on May 25. Alberto went on to attain winds of 65 mph, before making landfall in North Florida with winds of 45 mph. Alberto transitioned into a tropical depression before dissipating over Lake Michigan on May 31. After a month of inactivity, Beryl formed in the Main Developmental Region on July 5, attaining hurricane status before dissipating just east of the Caribbean. Beryl redeveloped on July 14 in the Atlantic, before dissipating on July 16. Chris formed simultaneously with Beryl, strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane on July 11, before dissipating over Atlantic Canada the following day. August featured little activity in the form of Debby and Ernesto, neither of which affected land. However, Ernesto was the fourth storm of the season that was a subtropical storm. At the end of the month, activity increased significantly with the formation of Florence in the East Atlantic on August 31, and Gordon near the Florida Keys on September 3.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, as of 15:00 UTC on September 6, is 30.1675 units.[nb 1]

Systems

Subtropical Storm Alberto

Subtropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 25 – May 31
Peak intensity65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min);
990 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Subtropical Storm Alberto

A broad area of low pressure formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on May 21, as the result of the interaction between an upper-level low and a weak surface trough.[17] The low drifted slowly westward and then northward through the Caribbean Sea as it gradually organized. By 15:00 UTC on May 25, the strongly sheared low had organized sufficiently to be classified as Subtropical Storm Alberto while situated about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cozumel, Quintana Roo,[18] which made this season the fourth-consecutive season in which storms formed earlier than the official start of the season on June 1. After remaining nearly stationary for the next day, Alberto began to move northwards. After entering the Gulf of Mexico, where wind shear lessened and sea surface temperatures were above average, Alberto began to intensify. Early on May 28, it reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). Afterward, it began to weaken as it neared the Gulf Coast, making landfall near Laguna Beach, Florida, at 21:00 UTC with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h).[19] The cyclone weakened to a subtropical depression shortly after landfall, later becoming tropical over Tennessee. On May 31, Alberto finally transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone while over northern Michigan. The remnant low was subsequently absorbed by a frontal system over Ontario on the next day.[20]

Hurricane Beryl

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 5 – July 16
Peak intensity80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min);
994 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Beryl

Late on July 3, the NHC began tracking a vigorous tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic for tropical cyclone development. The tropical wave quickly coalesced as it moved westward, and at 15:00 UTC on July 5, it organized into a tropical depression while situated over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.[21] Favorable environmental conditions allowed the tiny system to strengthen, becoming Tropical Storm Beryl by 18:30 UTC,[22] and further intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane by 06:00 UTC on July 6 as a pinhole eye became evident.[23] Upon designation as a hurricane, it became the second earliest on record in the Main Development Region (<20°N, 60-20°W), surpassed only by 1933's Hurricane Two.[24] This intensity was short-lived, as accelerating low-level flow imparted shear on the cyclone and caused it to weaken back to tropical storm strength, by 15:00 UTC on July 7.[25] An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system early the next morning, finding that Beryl had degenerated into an open trough; the NHC de-classified Beryl as a tropical cyclone at 21:00 UTC on July 8, accordingly.[26] The remnants were monitored for several days, although little organization occurred during much of that time. However, conditions gradually became more favorable for redevelopment, and on July 14 at 17:00 UTC, Beryl regenerated into a subtropical storm near Bermuda. The rejuvenated storm soon began to lose convection, as dry air infiltrated the system. By 03:00 UTC on July 16, Beryl degenerated into a remnant low once again, after having lacked organized convection for more than twelve hours.[27]

Hurricane Chris

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 6 – July 12
Peak intensity105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min);
970 mbar (hPa)

Late on July 2, the NHC began monitoring the potential for an area of low pressure to form near Bermuda in a low-pressure circulation.[28] A non-tropical low formed a few hundred miles south of Bermuda on July 3.[29] Shower and thunderstorm activity gradually became better defined as the low moved generally northwestward into the Gulf Stream. At 21:00 UTC on July 6, the low organized into Tropical Depression Three, while located off the coast of North Carolina. Strengthening of the depression was slow due to the circulation being elongated.[30] At 09:00 UTC on July 8, Tropical Depression Three was upgraded into Tropical Storm Chris.[31] Although it was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane the following day, dry air intrusion and upwelling caused by the storm resulted in little strengthening throughout the day. However, Chris was able to mix the dry air out of its circulation as it accelerated northeastward into warmer waters the following day. With a well-defined eye and impressive appearance on satellite imagery, Chris finally strengthened into a hurricane at 21:00 UTC on July 10.[32] At 03:00 UTC the next morning, Chris rapidly intensified to Category 2 hurricane status, as a convective ring in its core transformed into a full eyewall.[33] However, the hurricane's eye later became ragged and ill-defined, resulting in it weakening to Category 1 intensity at 21:00 UTC.[34] As the storm continued to cross the Gulf Stream, Chris further weakened below hurricane strength at 09:00 UTC the following morning. [35] By this time, Chris had begun to undergo extratropical transition, and also experienced an expanding windfield; Chris transitioned to an extratropical cyclone as it merged with a frontal system about six hours later.[36]

On July 7, a man drowned in rough seas attributed to the storm at Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina.[37] As an extratropical cyclone, the system brought locally heavy rain and gusty winds to Newfoundland and Labrador. Rainfall accumulations peaked at 3.0 in (76 mm) in Gander, while gusts reached 60 mph (96 km/h) in Ferryland.[38] Rainfall accumulations were highest on Sable Island, at 4.39 in (111.6 mm).[39]

Tropical Storm Debby

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 7 – August 9
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

On August 4, the NHC began monitoring a non-tropical low over the northern Atlantic Ocean for tropical or subtropical development.[40] Initially, convection remained very limited, with the system consisting mostly of a convectionless swirl interacting with an upper-level low. However, as the system moved into a more favorable environment it gradually began to acquire subtropical characteristics. At 15:00 UTC on August 7, the low had developed sufficiently organized convection to be classified as Subtropical Storm Debby.[41] The storm slowly gained tropical characteristics as it travelled northwards, and by 09:00 UTC on August 8, Debby became fully tropical, with sustained winds increasing to 45 mph (75 km/h).[42] Despite marginal ocean temperatures, Debby continued to strengthen, peaking with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h).[43] Afterward, Debby began to weaken as it began to lose tropical characteristics. At 21:00 UTC on August 9, Debby degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone, as it accelerated northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough.[44]

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 15 – August 18
Peak intensity45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min);
999 mbar (hPa)

A complex non-tropical low pressure system formed over the northern Atlantic on August 12.[45] As the low drifted southeastward and slowly weakened, a new low formed to the east of the system on August 14.[46] The new low quickly acquired subtropical characteristics, and by 09:00 UTC on August 15, the low had organized sufficiently to be classified as a subtropical depression.[47] At 15:00 UTC that same day, the depression became Subtropical Storm Ernesto.[48] On August 16, the storm attempted to transition into a fully tropical cyclone—as convection started to form near the center—however, it soon decayed.[49] Nevertheless, another burst of convection formed near the center a few hours later, indicating that Ernesto successfully transitioned into a tropical cyclone.[50] On August 17, Ernesto began accelerating towards the northeast, as the system was caught up in the jet stream. The next day, the storm transitioned into an extratropical cyclone.[51] The remnants of Ernesto impacted Ireland and the United Kingdom on August 19.[52][53]

Hurricane Florence

Tropical Storm Florence
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:11:00 p.m. AST September 6 (3:00 UTC September 7)
Location:25°06′N 49°48′W / 25.1°N 49.8°W / 25.1; -49.8 (Tropical Storm Florence) ± 20 nm
About 975 miles (1,570 km) ENE
About 1,035 mi (1,665 km) ESE of Bermuda
Sustained winds:60 kt (70 mph; 110 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 75kt (85 mph; 140 km/h)
Pressure:993 mbar (hPa; 29.32 inHg)
Movement:WNW at 6 kt (7 mph; 11 km/h)
See more detailed information.

On August 28, the NHC first mentioned the possibility of tropical cyclone formation from a tropical wave expected to exit western Africa.[54] Two days later, the tropical wave moved off the coast of Senegal with disorganized thunderstorms,[55] and a well-defined low-pressure area.[56] Due to the system's threat to the Cape Verde islands, the NHC initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six at 15:00 UTC on August 30.[57] The system organized into Tropical Depression Six at 21:00 UTC on August 31.[58] Early on September 1, Tropical Depression Six strengthened into Tropical Storm Florence. Gradual intensification occurred as Florence continued west-northwestward across the central Atlantic, and at 15:00 UTC on September 4, it intensified into the third hurricane of the season.[59] On September 5, Florence unexpectedly underwent rapid intensification into a Category 3 major hurricane.[60] Rapid intensification continued and at 5:00 p.m. AST (21:00 UTC), Florence intensified into a Category 4 hurricane at 22°24′N 46°12′W / 22.4°N 46.2°W / 22.4; -46.2 (Florence),[61] farther northeast than any previous Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic.[62] However, rapid intensification caused the now-stronger storm to veer poleward into a zone of greater vertical wind shear;[63] over the next 30 hours, Florence rapidly weakened to a tropical storm as its cloud pattern became distorted.[64] However, it is expected to eventually restrengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by September 11.[65]

Current storm information

As of 11:00 p.m. AST September 6 (15:00 UTC September 7), Tropical Storm Florence is located within 20 nautical miles of 25°06′N 49°48′W / 25.1°N 49.8°W / 25.1; -49.8 (Florence), about 970 miles (1,570 km) east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles and about 1,035 miles (1,665 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are 60 knots (70 mph; 110 km/h), with gusts to 75 knots (85 mph; 140 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 993 mbar (hPa; 29.32 inHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 6 knots (7 mph; 11 km/h). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Florence.

For latest official information, see:

Tropical Storm Gordon

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationSeptember 3 – September 6
Peak intensity70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min);
997 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Gordon (2018)

Early on August 31, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring a tropical disturbance over the Caribbean, giving it a 30% chance of development within 5 days. The National Hurricane Center continued monitoring the system, and at 18:00 UTC on September 2, it was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, as it was forecasted to impact land areas as a tropical storm within two days. At 12:05 UTC on the next morning, the system organized into Tropical Storm Gordon. After making landfall on the Mississippi-Alabama border, Gordon weakened into a tropical depression. The NHC issued its last advisory at 4:00 PM CDT on Wednesday, September 5, 2018. The remnants of Gordon continued to dump more rain across the central United States.

Storm names

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2018. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2019. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season. This is the same list used in the 2012 season, with the exception of the name Sara, which replaced Sandy.

  • Helene (unused)
  • Isaac (unused)
  • Joyce (unused)
  • Kirk (unused)
  • Leslie (unused)
  • Michael (unused)
  • Nadine (unused)
  • Oscar (unused)
  • Patty (unused)
  • Rafael (unused)
  • Sara (unused)
  • Tony (unused)
  • Valerie (unused)
  • William (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2018 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Alberto May 25 – 31 Subtropical storm 65 (100) 990 Yucatán Peninsula, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Southeastern United States, Midwestern United States, Ontario >$125 million 10 (2) [66]
Beryl July 5 – 16 Category 1 hurricane 80 (130) 994 Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Atlantic Canada Unknown None
Chris July 6 – 12 Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 970 Bermuda, East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Iceland Unknown 1 (0)
Debby August 7 – 9 Tropical storm 50 (85) 1000 None None None
Ernesto August 15 – 18 Tropical storm 45 (75) 999 Ireland, United Kingdom None None
Florence August 31 – Present Category 4 hurricane 130 (215) 953 Senegal, The Gambia, Cape Verde None None
Gordon September 3 – 6 Tropical storm 70 (110) 997 Cuba, The Bahamas, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas Unknown 1 (1)
Season aggregates
7 systems May 25 – Season ongoing   130 (215) 953 >$125 million 12 (3)  

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2018 Atlantic hurricane season/ACE calcs.

References

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  3. ^ a b CSU External Relations Staff (April 5, 2018). "Slightly above-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season predicted by CSU team". Fort Collins, CO.
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  5. ^ a b Matthew Burns (April 16, 2018). "NCSU researchers predict active hurricane season". Raleigh, North Carolina: WRAL-TV.
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  7. ^ a b KCBD (May 24, 2018). "NOAA predicts near or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season".
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  55. ^ Robbie Berg (August 30, 2018). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 30, 2018.
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  58. ^ Lixion Avila (August 31, 2018). "Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 4". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
  59. ^ Robbie Berg (September 4, 2018). "Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 21". National Hurricane Center. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  60. ^ Berg, Robbie (2018-09-05). "Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 25". {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  61. ^ "Hurricane FLORENCE". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2018-09-05.
  62. ^ Sam Lillo [@splillo] (5 September 2018). "Intensity at 18z has been increased to 115kt -- Florence is officially a category 4 hurricane. At 22.4N / 46.2W, this also makes Florence the furthest north category 4 hurricane east of 50W ever recorded in the Atlantic" (Tweet). Retrieved 5 September 2018 – via Twitter.
  63. ^ "Hurricane FLORENCE". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2018-09-06.
  64. ^ "Hurricane FLORENCE". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2018-09-07.
  65. ^ "TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2018-09-07.
  66. ^ AON Benfield. "Global Catastrophe Recap June 2018" (PDF). p. 10. Retrieved July 15, 2018.

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.
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