Talk:Spanish flu

Death Toll

Here is what the sources say on the death toll:

• Knobler S, Mack A, Mahmoud A, Lemon S (eds.). "1: The Story of Influenza". The Threat of Pandemic Influenza: Are We Ready? Workshop Summary (2005). Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. pp. 60–61. {{cite book}}: External link in |chapterurl= (help); Unknown parameter |chapterurl= ignored (|chapter-url= suggested) (help)

The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic killed more people in absolute numbers than any other disease outbreak in history. A contemporary estimate put the death toll at 21 million, a figure that persists in the media today, but understates the real number. Epidemiologists and scientists have revised that figure several times since then. Each and every revision has been upward. Frank Macfarlane Burnet, who won his Nobel Prize for immunology but who spent most of his life studying influenza, estimated the death toll as probably 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million. A 2002 epidemiologic study also estimates the deaths at between 50 and 100 million (Johnson and Mueller, 2002).

Knobler cites Mueller. Here is what he has to say

• Johnson NP, Mueller J (2002). "Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic". Bulletin of the History of Medicine. 76 (1): 105–15. doi:10.1353/bhm.2002.0022. PMID 11875246. {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)

...A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

I believe the two cited sources are saying the estimate should be "probably 50 million and perhaps as high as 100 million." ---- Work permit (talk) 15:24, 20 August 2019 (UTC)

Arizona University?

In Spanish Flu research, the college is called the University of Arizona. No one calls it Arizona University. 2601:248:5181:B860:135:C82C:4214:8721 (talk) 02:26, 15 November 2019 (UTC)

Edit request: Small phrasing change (speculation)

In the introductory paragraph "This has led to speculation [...] Thus in 1918, China was spared from the worst ravages of the pandemic," starts by introducing the idea as uncertain, but then words it as having occurred. I would change "was" to "would have been". Small nitpick. Could someone do this? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Ceci N'Est Pas Un Contributeur (talk • contribs) 21:26, 28 November 2019 (UTC)

Text added by obvious sockpuppet

A user is determined to add some badly written text about China to the article. They have used at least two different usernames to add it: see [1] and [2]. Those accounts were created on 20 and 25 September this year. A third account may be connected having made related edits: [3]. This user's current account has a username relating to pornography which is also inappropriate. Taputa (talk) 12:00, 8 December 2019 (UTC)

First of all, I'm the user who added the text that you keep deleting [1], and I am not the same person as User:Lauraspinney or User:Interracial-is-best. Second of all, please show me an objection you have to the text I made. I have cited the following sources in support of what I wrote

• https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971207000355
• https://www.jstor.org/stable/3401475?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
• https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0968344513504525
• https://www.history.com/news/china-epicenter-of-1918-flu-pandemic-historian-says
• https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/1/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health/
• https://books.google.com/books?id=k79_8QX8n44C&printsec=frontcover&dq=The+Spanish+Influenza+Pandemic+of+1918-1919:+New+Perspectives&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiu9oW2qafmAhVSIqwKHayhBQMQ6AEwAHoECAYQAg#v=onepage&q=China&f=false

Langford, Humphrey, KF Cheng, Saunders-Hastings, Killingray, among many other authors have supported the China origin hypothesis for the 1918 flu pandemic. I have cited published peer-reviewed, multidisciplinary papers that have supported this view. What exactly is wrong with what I wrote? I see you complain about the quality of writing and word choice. Well then, please improve it for me. English is not my first language, so if you think what I wrote needs improvement, please fix incorrect word-choices, grammar, or poor sentence structures. Other than that? What other problem is there with what I wrote?

Laputa-skye (talk) 00:16, 9 December 2019 (UTC)

Two users, created days apart less than three months ago, both adding exactly the same large chunk of text, are very obviously sockpuppets. I therefore do not trust that it is accurate. You need to make the case here for why the article suddenly needs to be significantly changed. Taputa (talk) 08:10, 14 December 2019 (UTC)

Both accounts have also edited Boxer Rebellion, so 2 in common out of the 12 and 5 articles the accounts have edited. If one looks at both sets of contributions, one sees that when one account is active, the other is not. Taputa (talk) 16:47, 14 December 2019 (UTC)

@Taputa: If you're going to make sockpuppetry allegations, then you should open a case at WP:SPI and do so properly, rather than continuing to edit war. –Deacon Vorbis (carbon • videos) 17:00, 14 December 2019 (UTC)

Less affected areas

Information to be added

The death toll in Russia has been estimated at 450,000, though the epidemiologists who suggested this number called it a "shot in the dark" . If it is correct, Russia lost roughly 0.2% of its population, meaning it suffered the lowest influenza-related mortality in Europe. This seems unlikely, given that the country was in the grip of a civil war, and the infrastructure of daily life had broken down. Data collected in Odessa, the most scientifically advanced Russian city at the time, and epidemiological analyses conducted in the 1950s, suggest that Russia's death toll was closer to 1.2%, or 2.7 million people

Estimates for the death toll in China have ranged from 1 million to 9 million , a range which reflects the lack of centralised collection of health data at the time. Iijima assumed that the flu arrived at the ports, and that poor communications prevented it from penetrating the interior, but contemporary newspaper and post office reports, as well as reports from missionary doctors, suggest that it did penetrate the interior and that it was bad there . The Chinese death toll may never be known, however.

Lauraspinney (talk) 15:45, 22 December 2019 (UTC)

References

Reply 22-DEC-2019

  Edit request declined  

• The |page= parameter has not been included with the Linney source.
• The citations are not formatted according to how a majority of sources in the article are, per WP:CITEVAR.
• Reasons have not been provided for why the requested material should be added.

Regards,  Spintendo  07:43, 23 December 2019 (UTC)

References

Less affected areas

Information to be added... because the current information is out-of-date and because I spent three years (2013-2016) travelling and conducting research to shed more light on what happened in these important areas (China, Russia). As I wrote in my suggested addition, the widely quoted 1991 Patterson & Pyle estimate for the death toll in Russia was, to quote them, a "shot in the dark" - they had no real data to work with. That is why my actual Russian data represent an improvement. With regards to China, the same authors were extrapolating from other countries and again had no local data to work with; I did. This is the second time I've tried to update this section and had my request refused (the first time without explanation). My name is not Linney but Spinney, as correctly spelled in my suggested addition, which I have now modified (below). If the citations are not correctly formatted, I would appreciate some help in doing so. Thank you!

The death toll in Russia has been estimated at 450,000, though the epidemiologists who suggested this number called it a "shot in the dark" . If it is correct, Russia lost roughly 0.2% of its population, meaning it suffered the lowest influenza-related mortality in Europe. This seems unlikely, given that the country was in the grip of a civil war, and the infrastructure of daily life had broken down. Data collected in Odessa, the most scientifically advanced Russian city at the time, and epidemiological analyses conducted in the 1950s, suggest that Russia's death toll was closer to 1.2%, or 2.7 million people

Estimates for the death toll in China have ranged from 1 million to 9 million , a range which reflects the lack of centralised collection of health data at the time. Iijima assumed that the flu arrived at the ports, and that poor communications prevented it from penetrating the interior, but contemporary newspaper and post office reports, as well as reports from missionary doctors, suggest that it did penetrate the interior and that it was bad there . The Chinese death toll may never be known, however.

Lauraspinney (talk) 17:57, 26 December 2019 (UTC)

References

You've stated that there is information in the article which is out of date. You have proposed here information that you say 'updates' the incorrect information, but you have not given the passage from the article which your proposed text is meant to replace. That is required for a substitution of text to be considered. Please provide the text which is to be replaced. If this is to be a straight addition to the article, then the text needs to be modified. It currently uses Wikipedia's voice to make certain assertions ("This seems unlikely, given that the country was in the grip of a civil war, and the infrastructure of daily life had broken down.") Those claims cannot be made using Wikipedia's voice, they need to be properly attributed to the author(s) making them. Regards,  Spintendo  20:54, 26 December 2019 (UTC)

Less affected areas

Information to be added. Spintendo, may I just laud your rigour and say that I wish it had been applied to the rest of the Spanish flu article, where theories are aired that are entirely speculative and have nothing other than circumstantial evidence to back them up (I'm referring to theories that favour one origin of the pandemic over any other, since there is no way of choosing between these currently). I have no theory, by the way. I'm just trying to provide better - though certainly not definitive - information. When I originally made my addition, there was existing text on China and Russia in this section. It has since been removed, again for reasons that have not been explained, but that I suspect have to do with the intervention and subsequent blocking of a sockpuppet. I hope the following passes muster. The point is that, until my book, Russia and China were considered to have been lightly affected. My information suggests that was not the case.

The death toll in Russia has been estimated at 450,000, though the epidemiologists who suggested this number called it a "shot in the dark" . If it is correct, Russia lost roughly 0.2% of its population, meaning it suffered the lowest influenza-related mortality in Europe. This is unlikely, according to the science journalist Laura Spinney, given that the country was in the grip of a civil war, and the infrastructure of daily life had broken down. Data collected in Odessa, the most scientifically advanced Russian city at the time, and epidemiological analyses conducted in the 1950s, suggest that Russia's death toll was closer to 1.2%, or 2.7 million people

Estimates for the death toll in China have ranged from 1 million to 9 million , a range which reflects the lack of centralised collection of health data at the time. Iijima assumed that the flu arrived at the ports, and that poor communications prevented it from penetrating the interior, but contemporary newspaper and post office reports, as well as reports from missionary doctors, collected by Spinney, suggest that it did penetrate the interior and that it was bad there . The Chinese death toll may never be known, however.

Lauraspinney (talk) 23:12, 26 December 2019 (UTC)

References

​ Done, I reworded a couple of sentences. – Thjarkur (talk) 00:01, 27 December 2019 (UTC)

Thanks Þjarkur but the references aren't working correctly. Ref 22 does not link to my book, Pale Rider (please see ref in text above).

81.29.176.246 (talk) 20:07, 27 December 2019 (UTC)

A reference needs correcting in the following two paragraphs (the Spinney one doesn't currently work - I hope I've put it in the right format now; please help/advise if not). Also the text on China is currently inaccurate, since it doesn't capture the ongoing debate over that country. I think it's important to say why this debate exists (because there was no centralised collection of health data in China at the time; this was the warlord period). If a reference is needed for this latter statement, either Iijima or Spinney could be given.

The death toll in Russia was estimated at 450,000 in 1991, though the epidemiologists who suggested this number called it a "shot in the dark". If it is correct, Russia lost roughly 0.2% of its population, meaning it suffered the lowest influenza-related mortality in Europe. Another study considers this number unlikely given that the country was in the grip of a civil war, and suggests that Russia's death toll was closer to 1.2%, or 2.7 million people.

The Chinese death toll may never be known, because there was no centralised collection of health data in China at the time. Some estimates suggest it was mild there , but these assume that the flu arrived at the ports and that poor communications prevented it from penetrating the interior. Other studies suggest these assumptions are not valid.

References

• Spinney, Laura (2017). Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed The World. London: Jonathan Cape. ISBN 978-1-910702-37-6. {{cite book}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)

Lauraspinney (talk) 16:35, 29 December 2019 (UTC)