Talk:Car

Include climate effects in environmental impact section

As a government official on transportation policy I find a lot of information on climate effects of aspects of policies that we propose, but very few applied numbers in the IPCC, UN or national websites. It would be convenient to find a fork of values for climate effects in relevant wikipedia articles. For the car article I would like to add e.g. the manufacturing numbers from following article in the guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car

The carbon footprint of a new car:

6 tonnes CO2e: Citroen C1, basic spec

17 tonnes CO2e: Ford Mondeo, medium spec

35 tonnes CO2e: Land Rover Discovery, top of the range

The carbon footprint of making a car is immensely complex.

I am aware that it needs rephrasing in the context of a wikipedia article.

For the effects of fuel use I would refer to the articles about the different fuels.

Can this be considered? Thank you.

Jjeroen (talk) 21:58, 2 March 2019 (UTC)

The car industry claim manufacturing emissions have reduced a lot since the article you cite and is now 0.6 tonnes CO2e per car https://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/environmental-impact-of-car-production-strongly-reduced-over-last-decade but that article is for Europe not worldwide.

Whereas https://theconversation.com/the-hidden-carbon-cost-of-everyday-products-96745 does not give a figure.

Sorry I have not time to read http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/tpi/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Methodology-note-automobiles-November-2018.pdf but maybe you or someone else can figure it out from that.

Presumably if one was driving, say, a Tesla in Norway then all the emissions are from manufacture and delivery (and end-of-life recycling but we would really have no idea about that yet I guess) but there is no data on Tesla at http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/tpi/the-toolkit/ Who can guess how many km a battery will last for - not me.

Compared to the emissions per km driven of ICE cars maybe manufacturing and recycling emissions are a now such small percentage of life-cycle emissions as not to be worth writing about?

Chidgk1 (talk) 19:29, 3 March 2019 (UTC)

Peak production of ICE cars in 2017/18?

• Removed peak fossil fuel claim from lead: I removed this recently added claim from the lead. [[1]]. First, it is not clear that 2017 was a peak. For example, here is another article citing experts who suggested 2018 might be a peak [[2]] and then only because they predict a reduction in total automobile sales in 2019. Second, the Cleantecnica source certainly didn't seem very reliable. Cleantecnica is a promotional/news site. Like InsideEV it's a site that pushes a pro-EV narrative and is sympathetic to pro-EV news. That doesn't automatically discount them as a RS but means we should at least look into things a bit more. CT cites "Carbon Tracker". So is "Carbon Tracker" reliable? Also, I don't actually see where in the article it claims 2017 was a peak. Springee (talk) 03:24, 4 March 2019 (UTC)

Firstly thanks for explaining your undo clearly and politely. I have cited "Carbon Tracker" in some other articles and I believe they are reliable. I don't have a subscription to the FT but I suspect the Futurism article you mention, having been published on the last day of 2018, did not have complete 2018 production stats. The estimate by Dr. Maximilian Holland seems to be based on combining China figures from China Daily, US figures from Marklines and Europe figures from European Automobile Manufacturers Association to make an overall total covering most of world sales: and then subtracting EV figures from EV volumes. I don't know anything about any of those sources and he has not included figures from smaller markets but estimates they will not affect the result - presumably they are not available yet. He does not claim to be certain but says "The figures we’ve discussed above support the idea of 2017 being the peak year." Perhaps we need to wait for the motor industry to publish a 2018 world total and then subtract the figures from EV volumes before saying for certain? Meanwhile I have cited a source which does not seem to be biased towards EVs. Chidgk1 (talk) 14:14, 4 March 2019 (UTC)

I think we still would have some issues. If we generate the numbers there is a WP:SYN and WP:WEIGHT risk. Synthesis since we shouldn't be looking at the numbers ourselves and claiming a peak in production, especially if we don't actually know why the numbers are what they are. There is also a question of weight. Is the claim of "peak ICE" something that is widely covered or only a claim made by a select few? Given the very broad scope of this article we shouldn't put too much weight into something that has yet to be shown to be true. This is especially true when putting material in the lead vs the body. Per WP:LEAD we shouldn't introduce material into the lead if it isn't discussed in the body of the article. For this reason we generally don't have or need citations in the lead. I haven't seen sufficient weight to justify inclusion of the claim at all but perhaps we don't need much to include the claim in the body. In the lead we should show that this is something that is being discussed widely. Springee (talk) 16:38, 4 March 2019 (UTC)

OK have just edited body of article for now until peak year is certain Chidgk1 (talk) 07:01, 6 March 2019 (UTC)

You can't tell that a peak has occurred until after it has definitely passed. If we could tell when the peak is then we could make a fortune on the stock market. Still too early to make a definitive statement. All we can say is that some people say the peak has been reached. See WP:CRYSTALBALL.  Stepho  talk  10:19, 9 March 2019 (UTC)

• I just reverted a change stating that peak ICE engine production had occurred. There are several issues with the sourcing and the claim. First, as edited the text seems to suggest the peak was due to a change in preference shifting to EVs vs just cyclic demand. Using similar logic in 2009 we might have said that ICE cars sales peaked in 2008. Until this is clearly a trend we shouldn't report it as if this is the all time peak. Second, I would suggest we use more reliable sources. Cleantecnica is as much a promotion site as a news site. Carsalesbase is unknown in terms of RS. I would suggest we find reliable automotive news sources (not EV fan sites nor sites with unknown editorial standards) to establish weight for inclusion as well as the conclusion. Springee (talk) 20:30, 11 March 2019 (UTC)

• Given the scale of EV production nowadays compared with any peak in overall car sales in 2008 and the difference that China is now the largest car market and heavily supports EVs, I cannot see any reasonable scenario whereby global fossil fuel car sales could exceed their 2017 level in future. However I am not an industry expert or economist so if anyone thinks otherwise I would be interested to hear the details. Chidgk1 (talk) 17:51, 15 March 2019 (UTC)

Again, CRYSTAL. We have reliable sources quoting experts who speculate we have hit a peak. We don't have sufficient historical knowledge to be sure a peak has occurred. A small, single year drop really isn't sufficient to prove the case. Also, the sources used were a personal blog and a advocate/news site vs a neutral, reliable source. I would suggest getting more consensus here via proposed changes and proposed sources. I would support the "experts suggesting" type material. Springee (talk) 18:06, 15 March 2019 (UTC)

• Oh I see so it is not just that you think another peak might occur you still doubt a peak occurred in 2017. In that case let's wait until completely indisputable 2018 car production figures are issued. You presumably know better than me what are the most trustworthy figures and when and by whom they will be released.

Chidgk1 (talk) 18:16, 15 March 2019 (UTC)

Not exactly. First, we do need to wait until we have RS's that talk about the peak occurring. Second we should keep it speculative/forward looking until we see this is clearly a down hill slope for ICE cars vs just a single year dip. Also, if RS's talk about the associated mandates/incentives etc that have accompanied EVs we should mention that as well. Finally, other editors have expressed concern as well. Get their opinions too. Springee (talk) 18:23, 15 March 2019 (UTC)

I'm with Springee on this. We're not saying that it definitely won't shift to EV dominating. We're saying that we don't know if it has happened yet and are not even sure if it will happen. Perhaps next year a new oil field might be found - making oil cheap. Perhaps lithium supply prices will skyrocket - making EV more expensive. Perhaps China will take a closed foreign policy again. Perhaps WWIII will break out. Perhaps hydrogen will take off. Perhaps we will all stay home and telecommute. Perhaps EV are a fad for a few years and then die out. Perhaps battery manufacturing poisons the planet more than burning oil does. You don't know. Ask any stock market analyst. Predicting a peak while it is happening (to maximise your share price for selling) is so incredibly hard that nobody consistently does it multiple times. Therefore we cannot say that the peak has occurred. We can only say that certain authors have said it has occurred. Facts, not guesses.  Stepho  talk  23:56, 15 March 2019 (UTC)

• According to the BBC International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers is a reliable source of production statistics. I have not browsed their site yet but hopefully we can at least agree on that. Chidgk1 (talk) 13:19, 16 March 2019 (UTC)

OICA is definitely a reliable source of statistics of past data. Notice that they don't provide predictions. Saying the peak has passed is also effectively predicting that the next 10 years or so will be less than this year. If this was 2030 looking back at 10+ years of EV's outselling fossil fuel cars then I would have a high confidence in saying the peak of fossil fuels has passed. But not after 1-3 years (depending on which source you agree with).  Stepho  talk  13:59, 16 March 2019 (UTC)

• Glad we agree about the totals from OICA. As far as I know the 2018 production stats at EV Volumes are the most reliable for EVs, although they do not separate cars and other light vehicles. But it would also be useful to have the best sources for production numbers by fuel type for fuels intermediate in number between gasoline and electricity, for example presumably diesel, if anyone knows what that source is. Chidgk1 (talk) 15:11, 17 March 2019 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 3 September 2019

108.50.170.34 (talk) 22:15, 3 September 2019 (UTC) There are around 1.5 billion cars in use worldwide.

Lots of cars in the real world has no bearing on this article needing protection.  Stepho  talk  22:32, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

Perhaps they're saying our data of 1 billion cars world wide is out of date, which is true. The source is from 2011. On Vehicle and Motorcycle similar outdated data is used. In those cases, the numbers of vehicle types is used for comparison, so it works because the data for each type of vehicle is from the same approximate year. But if we had the sources it would be welcome to update all such data. Until then, it's fine for it to remain, as long as the reader is aware what year the estimate was made. --Dennis Bratland (talk) 01:36, 4 September 2019 (UTC)

Good point.  Stepho  talk  10:04, 4 September 2019 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 21 November 2019

I am requesting to make changes to the autonomous car section of this wikipedia page. I would like to add material that includes hardware of self-driving technology, and companies like Tesla that have revolutionized self driving tech. I have included sources I will be using.

Sigfusson, L. (2018). Autonomous Cars. Discover, 39(6), 66-67.

Kemeny, R. (2019). Autonomous cars learn from terrible driving. New Scientist, 241(3215), 16-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0262-4079(19)30186-1

Bradley, R. (2016). Tesla Autopilot. MIT Technology Review, 119(2), 62-65.

Thanks, Shyen2 (talk) 01:38, 21 November 2019 (UTC) Shyen Shah

 Not done. It's not clear what changes you want to make. Please make a precise request. –Deacon Vorbis (carbon • videos) 02:23, 21 November 2019 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 21 November 2019

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hg hd gf h fdg dfg er 192.68.163.160 (talk) 18:54, 21 November 2019 (UTC)