2023 Guyana–Venezuela crisis

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2023 Guyana–Venezuela crisis
Area in dispute in light green. Guyana in dark green. Venezuela in orange.
Date1 November 2023–present
(6 months, 1 week and 2 days)
Location
Guayana Esequiba
StatusOngoing
Parties
Lead figures
Casualties and losses
5 killed, 1 helicopter lost (non-combat)
N/A

Template:Campaignbox 2023 Guayana Esequiba crisis A diplomatic crisis is unfolding between Guyana and Venezuela, relating to an ongoing territorial dispute over the Essequibo region. Under the lasting dispute, Venezuela claims sovereignty over the area west of the Essequibo River,[1] while Guyana, for its part, argues that Venezuela renounced the territory after the Paris Award.[2] The International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is in the process of reviewing and making a determination on the dispute, said that statements made by Venezuelan officials suggest that Venezuela is attempting to assume control of contested territory from Guyana.[3]

Background

Main article: Guayana Esequiba

Dutch colonies

See also: Dutch colonisation of the Guianas
A map of Dutch Guiana by Hendrik Hondius I, 1638

Essequibo started off as a colony of the Dutch and was founded by colonists from the first Zeelandic colony, Pomeroon, conquered in 1581, which had been destroyed by Spaniards and local warriors around 1596. Led by Joost van der Hooge, the Zeelanders travelled to an island called Kyk-Over-Al near the Essequibo River (actually a tributary called the Mazaruni). Dutch colonisation of the Guianas occurred primarily between the mouths of the Orinoco River in the west and the Amazon River to the east. In 1658, cartographer Cornelis Goliath created a map of the colony and made plans to build a city there called "New Middelburg", but the Second Anglo-Dutch War (1665–67) put an end to these plans. Essequibo was occupied by the British in 1665 (along with all other Dutch colonies in the Guianas), and then plundered by the French. The following years the Zeelanders sent a squadron of ships to retake the area. While the Suriname colony was captured from the English by Abraham Crijnssen, the by then abandoned Essequibo was occupied by Matthys Bergenaar.

After 1745, the number of plantations along the Demerara River and its tributaries rapidly increased, resulting with the Demerara colony. Particularly, British colonists from Barbados began settling here. After 1750 a commander of the British population was assigned, giving them their own representation. Around 1780 a small central settlement was established at the mouth of the Demerara River, which received the name Stabroek in 1784, named after one of the directors of the West Indian Company. A group of British privateers captured Essequibo and Demerara on 24 February 1781, but did not stay. In March, two sloops of a Royal Navy squadron under Admiral Lord Rodney accepted the surrender of "Colony of Demarary and the River Essequebo". From 27 February 1782 to February 1783 the French occupied the colony after compelling Governor Robert Kinston to surrender. The peace of Paris, which occurred in 1783 restored these territories to the Dutch.

British Guiana

See also: Paris Arbitral Award
Map of British Guiana in 1908

In 1796, the Essequibo was permanently occupied by the British and by 1800, Essequibo and Demerara collectively held around 380 sugarcane plantations. But it also became involved in one of Latin America's most persistent border disputes because the new colony had the Essequibo river as its west border with the Spanish Captaincy General of Venezuela. Although Spain still claimed the region, the Spanish did not contest the treaty because they were preoccupied with their own colonies' struggles for independence. In 1822, independence leader Simón Bolívar ordered his representative in London, José Rafael Revenga, to present an official complaint to the British authorities, writing: "The settlers of Demerara and Berbice have usurped a large portion of land that according to the last treaties between Spain and Holland belong to us on this side of the Essequibo River. (...) that said colonists place themselves under the jurisdiction and obedience of our laws or withdraw to their former possessions". After Venezuela obtained its independence in 1830, it defined its borders as those that made up the former Captaincy General of Venezuela, which included the Essequibo region.[4] On 21 July 1831, Demerara-Essequibo was united with Berbice to create British Guiana.

Under the aegis of the Royal Geographical Society, the German-born explorer and naturalist Robert Hermann Schomburgk conducted botanical and geographical exploration of British Guiana in 1835. This resulted in a sketch of the territory with a line marking what he believed to be the western boundary claimed by the Dutch. As a result of this, he was commissioned in 1840 by the British government to survey Guiana's boundaries. This survey resulted in what came to be known as the "Schomburgk Line".[5][6] The line went well beyond the area of British occupation and gave British Guiana control of the mouth of the Orinoco River.[7] Schomburgk's initial sketch, which had been published in 1840, was the only version of the "Schomburgk Line" published until 1886, which led to later accusations by US President Grover Cleveland that the line had been extended "in some mysterious way".[5]

In 1850, Britain and Venezuela reached an agreement whereby they accepted not to colonise the disputed territory, although it was not established where this territory began and ended.[5] The dispute went unmentioned for many years until gold was discovered in the region, which disrupted relations between the United Kingdom and Venezuela.[8] In 1876, gold mines inhabited mainly by English-speaking people had been established in the Cuyuni basin, which was Venezuelan territory beyond the Schomburgk line but within the area Schomburgk thought Britain could claim.[citation needed] That year, Venezuela reiterated its claim up to the Essequibo River, to which the British responded with a counterclaim including the entire Cuyuni basin, although this was a paper claim the British never intended to pursue.[5]

In October 1886 Britain declared the Schomburgk Line to be the provisional frontier of British Guiana, and in February 1887 Venezuela severed diplomatic relations. In 1894, Venezuela appealed to the United States to intervene, citing the Monroe Doctrine as justification. The United States did not want to get involved, only going as far as suggesting the possibility of arbitration.[5]

During the Venezuelan crisis of 1895, the United Kingdom and Venezuela attempted to settle the territorial dispute. Venezuela argued that Spain–whose territory they had acquired–controlled land from the Orinoco River to the Amazon River in present-day Brazil.[9] Spain, according to Venezuela, only designated its claimed Guiana territory to the Dutch, which did not include much land within the disputed territory.[9] Meanwhile, Britain, who had acquired the Dutch territory, stated that the disputed Guiana region was not Spanish because it was so remote and uncontrolled, explaining that the original natives in the land had shared the territory's land with the Dutch instead of the Spanish and were thus under Dutch and British influence.[9] On 3 October 1899 the Tribunal ruled largely in favour of Britain. The Schomburgk Line was, with two deviations, established as the border between British Guiana and Venezuela.[10] One deviation was that Venezuela received Barima Point at the mouth of the Orinoco, giving it undisputed control of the river, and thus the ability to levy duties on Venezuelan commerce. The second placed the border at the Wenamu River rather than the Cuyuni River, giving Venezuela substantial territory east of the line. However, Britain received most of the disputed territory, and all of the gold mines.[11]

In 1949, the US jurist Otto Schoenrich gave the Venezuelan government a memorandum written by Mallet-Prevost, which was written in 1944 to be published only after his death. Mallet-Prevost surmised from the private behavior of the judges that there had been a political deal between Russia and Britain,[12] and said that the Russian chair of the panel, Friedrich Martens, had visited Britain with the two British arbitrators in the summer of 1899, and subsequently had offered the two American judges a choice between accepting a unanimous award along the lines ultimately agreed, or a 3 to 2 majority opinion even more favourable to the British. The alternative would have followed the Schomburgk Line entirely, and given the mouth of the Orinoco to the British. Mallet-Prevost said that the American judges and Venezuelan counsel were disgusted at the situation and considered the 3 to 2 option with a strongly worded minority opinion, but ultimately went along with Martens to avoid depriving Venezuela of even more territory.[12] Said memorandum led to complaints by Venezuela in the United Nations in 1962.[13][14]

Guyana

Venezuela signed the Geneva Agreement in 1966 with the United Kingdom prior to the independence of Guyana, which occurred that same year, which established bases for a negotiated solution to the territorial dispute.[15][16][17][18] Five months after Guyana's independence, Venezuelan troops began their occupation of Ankoko island and surrounding islands in October 1966 with Venezuelan troops quickly constructing military installations and an airstrip.[19] In 1969, the Rupununi uprising occurred in an attempt by ranch owners to secede from Guyana.[20]

By 1970, after the expiry of the Mixed Commission established according to the 1966 Geneva Agreement, Presidents Rafael Caldera and Forbes Burnham signed the Port of Spain Protocol, which declared a 12-year moratorium on Venezuela's reclamation of Guayana Esequiba, with the purpose of allowing both governments to promote cooperation and understanding while the border claim was in abeyance. In 1983, the deadline of the Port of Spain Protocol expired, and the Venezuelan President Luis Herrera Campins decided not to extend it anymore and resume the effective claim over the territory.

Into the 21st century, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez eased border tensions with Guyana under advice of his mentor Fidel Castro[21] and in 2004, Chávez said during a visit in Georgetown, Guyana, that he considered the dispute to be finished.[21] In response to Chávez' nationalization of oil assets primarily belonging to ExxonMobil, it spearheaded efforts to find oil in neighboring Guyana in the 2000s.[22] ExxonMobil has been involved in multiple disputes with Venezuela over such assets, with US analyst Steve LeVine considering it was very litigious and "sending a signal" to others considering interfering with their contracts,[23] with multiple defeated attempts at arbitration over sixteen years,[24][25] the latest submitted on 27 November 2023.[26]

Guyana discovers oil deposits

Venezuelan Guaicamacuto-class patrol boat similar to the Commandante Hugo Chavez, which captured Guyanese ships in January 2021
Guyana has granted concessions to the multinational oil corporation ExxonMobil, including in waters claimed by Venezuela

Venezuela became more aggressive towards Guyana during the administration of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.[15] The Venezuelan Navy detained an oil exploration vessel conducting seafloor surveys on behalf of the government of Guyana on 10 October 2013, with the ship and its crew being escorted to the Venezuelan Margarita Island to be prosecuted. The Guyanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the vessel was in Guyanese waters,[27] but its Venezuelan counterpart sent a diplomatic note to Guyana stating that the ship was conducting oil research in Venezuelan waters with no authorisation from the country, and demanded an explanation.[28] Maduro visited Guyana and discussed the dispute. In Georgetown, Maduro affirmed that the Geneva Agreement was signed by “an old Acción Democrática government and the old British Empire” as part of a “psyop, through contempt and racism, to invade Guyana”.[29]

Guyana handed new oil concessions to ExxonMobil in 2014, whose Venezuelan assets Chávez had nationalized seven years prior.[30] In 2015, Venezuela accused ExxonMobil of breaching international law while drilling for oil in Guyana, and a minor crisis broke out wherein Guyanese authorities seized a Venezuelan vessel, the Yakuana, in Guyanas's territorial waters, with both parts demanding an explanation for the other; they later agreed to meet to try to improve delimitation of each other's territorial waters.[31] Maduro announced in 2015 that he would take the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and in 2018 Guyana initiated an arbitration proceeding against Venezuela to decide the validity of the 1899 Paris Award.[29]

Between 2015 and 2021, the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote that about 8 billion barrels of oil reserves were discovered in Guyana,[15] with Guyana becoming among the top twenty countries by proven oil reserves. By 2023, BBC News reported that Guyana had discovered 11 billion barrels worth of oil reserves.[32] Venezeula again pressed for arbitration on the ICJ, with Guyanese Natural Resources Minister Rafael Trotman admitted that ExxonMobil had financially backed Guyana for legal disputes,[33][34] in addition to a "non-disclosed signing bonus" paid by ExxonMobil according to then president David Granger. ExxonMobil Country Manager, Rod Henson, said the payments were customary and usual for petroleum agreements.[35] Guyanese experts noted the government had ignored environmental concerns[36] and that ExxonMobil had no oversight and its executives were frequently seen with top officials, with ExxonMobil having embarked on a public relations and regulatory capture campaign.[22]

A Venezuelan Sukhoi Su-30, similar to the two fighter jets that entered Guyanese airspace in March 2021

On 7 January 2021, President Maduro issued Decree No. 4,415, claiming 200 nautical miles of seabed from the Orinoco Delta for Venezuela, extending into where Guyana made oil discoveries.[15] Days later on 21 January, Guaicamacuto-class patrol boat Commandante Hugo Chavez GC 24 captured two Guyanese fishing boats within the EEZ of Guyana.[15] Months later on 2 March 2021, two Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets of the Venezuelan Air Force made low passes at 1,500 feet (460 m) over the Guyanese town of Eteringbang.[15] Guyanese Foreign Minister Hugh Todd responded to the incident a day later, stating "the incursion of our territory of the two Venezuelan fighter jets is a clear indication that the government of Venezuela is prepared to use aggression and intimidation to accomplish what cannot be accomplished by legal means: the surrender by Guyana of its patrimony."[15]

In April 2023, the ICJ ruled that it has jurisdiction over the dispute in a lawsuit filed by Guyana in 2018 to determine which nation controlled the disputed territory.[37] Following further discoveries of oil and gas fields,[38] on 19 September 2023, Guyana authorized six foreign oil companies including ExxonMobil to drill in the waters claimed by Venezuela.[2][39] In October, ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (EMGL) President, Alistair Routledge, told reporters that "we have not been scared away by Venezuela…that’s why we’re still working in Guyana. That’s why we anticipate continuing to do so for decades to come".[40] Guyana also criticized Venezuela for rejecting the ICJ's prerogative to rule on the manner after it rejected their proposal of establishing direct talks instead.[41]

Timeline of events

Venezuela announces referendum

Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, the main proponent of the 2023 Venezuelan referendum

The government of Nicolás Maduro promoted a consultative referendum in Venezuela for 3 December 2023 in which five questions were asked of citizens, among them, whether they agree to "oppose, by all means, in accordance with the law, Guyana's claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation, illegally and in violation of international law" and whether they would be in favor of giving Venezuelan nationality to the 125,000 inhabitants of Guayana Esequiba.[42][43][44] The government has criticized the "abuses of ExxonMobil" and the United States Southern Command,[2][44] deploying a media campaign that has appealed to Venezuelan patriotism.[45]

BBC News wrote that Venezuela's claim to Essequibo unifies chavistas and the Venezuelan opposition "like no other issue."[46] Oliver Stuenkel noted that the Essequibo dispute was highly popular among Venezuelans throughout the political spectrum, and even much of the opposition to Maduro refrained from boycotting or denouncing the referendum for fear of appearing un-patriotic.[47][48] Opposition leaders provided different responses to the referendum. Presidential candidate for the opposition political coalition María Corina Machado assured that sovereignty was not consulted, but rather exercised, and asked to suspend the referendum to form a national team with the purpose of filing a claim with the ICJ,[49] while Manuel Rosales and Henrique Capriles, both former opposition presidential candidates, were in favor.[50] Rosales called on Venezuelans to vote in the referendum and Capriles announced that he would participate in the referendum.[50] The referendum caused a diplomatic crisis between both nations.[51]

Reported military buildup

In October 2023, it was reported that the Venezuelan military was building a runway near the border with Guyana's Essequibo "to develop" the region. Guyana's president Irfaan Ali responded by saying the country will not give up "an inch" of the region.[52] Guyana asked for Venezuela to explain their troop buildup in the border, and the Venezuelan ambassador Carlos Amador Pérez Silva that the troops were mobilized to curb illegal mining in the region.[53]

In the context of increasing tensions between the two countries, Guyana's main opposition party, Alliance For Change, called on 4 November for a ban on Venezuelans with Guyanese citizenship from voting in elections, as well as not granting citizenship to more people from the neighboring country.[54][55]

Representatives of both Venezuela and Guyana asked in a hearing held at the ICJ in mid-November 2023 that the Court recognize their sovereignty over the Essequibo. Guyana also requested that the referendum be repealed, alleging that Venezuela intended to annex the territory, a request that the Venezuelan government rejected.[38] Guyanese Prime Minister Mark Anthony Phillips took the case to the Organization of American States (OAS) where he accused Venezuela of a military buildup near the Essequibo border, and warned of the consequences of it for Guyana's sovereignty. OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the United States government expressed their support for Guyana.[56]

At the end of November 2023, the President of Guyana, Irfaan Ali, met with soldiers who guard the border between both countries. In a video released by the government Ali raised the Guyanese flag at an event on the Pakarampa mountain in Guayana Esequiba, near Venezuela's Bolívar state, where he also took an oath of national loyalty.[44] After these acts, the Minister of Defense of Venezuela, Vladímir Padrino López declared that the Venezuelan Armed Forces will be "permanently vigilant" of "any action that threatens" the "territorial integrity", asking the population to vote in the referendum and adding that the conflict "for now" is not a war.[57] The governor of Zulia, Manuel Rosales, claimed that "Guayana Esequiba is one hundred percent Venezuelan territory," arguing that Guyana's actions violated the 1966 Geneva agreement, and criticized the fact that the UN and the OAS did not speak out on the matter.[58]

On 23 November, senior military officers from the Guyana Defence Force and the Brazilian Armed Forces met for a military exchange. Brazil has been a strong supporter of Guyana in the border dispute.[59]

Brazil is currently trying to establish mediation between both countries to avoid an armed conflict.[1] Two teams from the United States Department of Defense were scheduled to visit Guyana in late November.[44] Guyana proposed establishing foreign military bases in its country.[2] The Brazilian Army mobilized towards the border of both countries anticipating a possible Venezuelan invasion.[60] Reports from Brazilian intelligence in early December suggested an imminent military move by the Venezuelan Army against Guyana in the coming days, raising concerns about regional stability and territorial disputes in South America.[61][better source needed]

The Brazilian foreign ministry, Itamaraty, held a summit between foreign and defense ministers of South American countries on 22 November, wherein Venezuelan foreign minister Félix Osorio claimed Venezuela "may be forced by the people to take measures"[62] On the same day, Brazil sent special envoy Celso Amorim to Caracas, wherein he talked directly with Maduro, whom told him there'd be no war, but the Brazilian government remained worried, and Amorim warned that the situation could "spiral out of control".[63] Amorim stated Brazil would "not accept any solution that is not peaceful".[64]

On 30 November, Brazilian Minister of Defense José Múcio announced that the Brazilian Army would send 60 troops to Pacaraima to reinforce security at the border crossing with Venezuela, seeking to impede a potential Venezuelan crossing into Guyana from Brazilian territory.[65]

On 1 December, the International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking action to change the status quo in the border dispute with Guyana. "The court observes that the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute is that Guyana administers and exercises control over that area," presiding judge Joan Donoghue said. "Venezuela must refrain from taking any action which would modify that situation," she added.[66] On 4 December, Brazilian defense portal Defesa Net published an article detailing that an anonymous source from a Guyanaese officer claimed roughly 200 Venezuelan special forces had entered Guyanese territory disguised as civilians in order to conduct sabotage and other preparation operations.[67]

On 6 December, Foreign Ministers of Venezuela Yván Gil and Guyana Hugh Todd had a phone call, at Guyana's request, and the countries agreed to "keep communication channels open", according to Venezuela's government.[68]

Referendum

On 3 December, the Venezuelan government organized a referendum asking to support its position in the dispute. The National Electoral Council initially reported that Venezuelans voted "yes" more than 95% of the time on each of the five questions on the ballot.[69][70] International analysts and media reported that turnout had been remarkably low and that the Venezuelan government had falsified the results.[71] Bharrat Jagdeo, vice president of Guyana, said in an interview that he is preparing for the worst and that the government is working with partners to strengthen "defense cooperation".[72][73]

Militarization of the Brazilian border

On 5 December, the Brazilian Army mobilized 20 Iveco LMV vehicles to join the newly activated 18th Mechanized Cavalry Regiment based in Boa Vista, being expected to arrive in early January.[74] The regiment, originally planned to be activated in 2026, was created from the preexisting 12th Mechanized Cavalry Squadron on 29 November.[a][75] An additional 600 soldiers will be added to the newly created 18th Cavalry Regiment, an armored task force composed of 28 armored vehicles was assembled.[76][77] Brazilian defense minister José Múcio said the presidency had ordered him to "bulletproof the border".[78] The Brazilian military was also concerned that the situation would lead to the creation of additional American military bases in the region.[79] Sources within the military also told reporters that they were detecting no suspicious movement along the Brazilian border, with the precaution of deterrence working there, but they believed Venezuela was more likely to invade from the sea.[80] Brazil is expected to triple its military presence in the border, with much materiel being moved thousands of kilometers from its South and Center-West regions.[81]

Venezuela authorizes development in Essequibo

Among his decrees shortly after the referendum, Maduro ordered the publication of a new map, including the Esequibo territory, "in all schools, public entities, universities and 'in all homes' in the country"[82]

On 4 December, National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela Strategic Commander Domingo Hernández Lárez made several posts on social media of Venezuelan military working on repairing or building new roads, bridges, airstrips and other infrastructure in the border with the Esequibo region, which he described as "our Guyanese routes".[83] On 5 December, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced that he would soon permit the exploitation of resources such as gas, oil, and mineral deposits within Guyana Esequiba. He also announced local Essequibo subsidiaries of Venezuelan state owned companies PDVSA and CVG.[64][84] On the same day, Brazilian President Lula stated he'd make a presidential visit to Guyana next year,[85] which analysts interpreted as signalling that Brazil would not tolerate Venezuelan military action.[86] On 6 December, Lula announced a summit with special envoy Celso Amorim and foreign minister Mauro Vieira.[87] The Brazilian Army reported to CNN Brasil that it had detected an increased Venezuelan military presence along the border with Guyana, though it assessed that the buildup by itself still wasn't indicative of an imminent invasion.[88]

The Guyanese president told Brazilian media that President Lula assured him Brazil would support Guyana, and thanked him for Brazil's "mature" position, while characterizing Venezuela as "reckless" and "unpredictable". He claimed they were working with the United States Southern Command and expected "strong statements" to be made within the next 24 hours.[89] The United States also announced military exercises with Guyanese forces.[90]

Venezuelan detentions and arrest warrants

The same day, the Venezuelan government issued arrest warrants for three members from the team of opposition political candidate María Corina Machado, accusing them participating in an alleged plan to sabotage the 3 December referendum, supposedly financed by Exxon Mobil. It also confirmed the detention of an American citizen, Savoi Janson Wright, accused of financing them.[91] That night, president of the Venezuelan NGO Súmate, Roberto Abdul, who also helped with the organization of the opposition presidential primaries, was detained by officials of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service.[92][93]

The Venezuelan government also issued against orders against opposition leaders and dissident Chavistas, including Yon Goicoechea, Juan Guaidó, Julio Borges, Andrés Izarra, David Smolansky, Lester Toledo, Carlos Vecchio, Leopoldo López and Rafael Ramírez, accusing them of participating in a conspiracy to boycott and sabotage the referendum.[92]

Missing Guyanese helicopter

Main article: GDF Bell 412 Helicopter crash

On 6 December, a Guyana Defence Force Bell 412 helicopter went missing en route from Georgetown-Camp Ayanganna to Arau, situated directly along the Venezuelan border in Essequibo. It carried a crew of 3 and 4 passengers, and was piloted by GDF Lt. Col. Michael Charles.[94][95] According to the Chief of Staff of the Guyanese military, Omar Khan, there were no indications the aircraft was shot down from the sky. Authorities had stated that there was "bad weather" in the area.[96]

US military involvement

On 7 December the United States announced that it would conduct a series of joint flight operations with the Guyana Defense Force (GDF) to strengthen security collaboration between the two countries, according to the U.S. Southern Command. The maneuvers are routine in nature and seek, in addition to reinforcing cooperation between the two forces, to strengthen regional collaboration, according to the United States Southern Command statement. In addition to exercises, the United States “will continue its collaboration with the GDF in the areas of disaster preparedness, aerial and maritime security, and countering transnational criminal organizations.” The U.S., which has been conducting regular joint military exercises with the South American country for years, “will continue its commitment as Guyana’s trusted security partner and promoting regional cooperation and interoperability.”[97]

Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Venezuelan defense minister, described the actions of the United States as a "provocation", saying that Venezuela "will not be diverted from our future actions for the recovery of the Essequibo."[98]

Analysis and military capability assessments

Main articles: Guyana Defence Force and National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela

Analysts noted the decision of the Maduro administration to call a referendum may be an attempt to divert attention from Venezuelan internal problems such as the weak economy and high levels of government corruption.[99][100][101] Political analysts also see the referendum as a nationalist strategy by the Maduro government to rally support ahead of the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election.[102]

Brazilian analyst Thiago de Aragão said Venezuela has far greater military capabilities than Guyana, which enrolls about 3,000 troops in light combat vehicles. Venezuela reportedly has 123,000 land troops distributed into several regiments as well as 173 main battle tanks, such as AMX-30 and T-72B1, along with reconnaissance vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers, as well as over 3 million paramilitary militia. It also has significant air and naval assets, compared to only a token air force on Guyana's side. However, any aggression against Guyana could trigger an intervention by regional powers such as Brazil or the United States.[101] Contrariwise, Russia's involvement is not limited to selling military hardware to Maduro, as there are two reported Russian military bases within Venezuelan territory,[103] as well a detachment of the Wagner Group private military company, which is involved in training Venezuelan elite troops as well as providing personal security for Maduro.[104]

Visiting King's College London professor Augusto Teixeira said the Esequibo region is mostly composed of mountains and dense tropical forest, with little to no roads. The only feasible option for Venezuela, according to Teixeira, would be moving its troops through Brazilian soil, in the state of Roraima. In addition to infrastructure, military movements through Roraima would be significantly less hampered by the regional geography, as the Raposa Serra do Sol region is composed not of forest, but cerrado terrain, mostly flat savannah, and the remaining wooded areas have been largely deforested, though Brazil would not let Venezuela make any incursions from its territory. Additionally, Venezuelan military is concentrated around Caracas and the northern border with Guyana along the Caribbean coast.[105]

Responses

Governments

The United Kingdom through the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office condemned Venezuela's actions, describing them as "unjustified" and that they "should cease."[106] President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva raised concern about the crisis, saying "We do not want and we do not need war in South America."[106] The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine called on Venezuela to respect the authority of the ICJ's 1 December decision and said that Guyana and Venezuela "must comply with the legally binding Order of the International Court of Justice on provisional measures and must not resort to unilateral actions that could aggravate the situation."[107] On 5 December, TASS, the Russian state news agency, announced Maduro would visit the Kremlin before the end of the year, despite Vladmir Putin's busy schedule.[108]

International bodies

On 7 December, member states of the Mercosur trade bloc held a summit and discussed the crisis. Venezuela was not present, as it had been suspended in 2016 for breaking the bloc's democratic clause.[109] Lula stated Brazil was looking for a peaceful solution and offered Brazil to mediate the situation.[110] Sources say a joint statement from the bloc is being prepared.[111]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Regiments and Squadrons being equivalent to Battalions and Companies, respectively, in Brazilian cavalry terminology

References

  1. ^ a b Taglioni, Augusto. "Lula quiere evitar una guerra entre Venezuela y Guyana y manda a un hombre de confianza a mediar". La Política Online. Archived from the original on 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
  2. ^ a b c d "Guyana se planta en zona reclamada por Venezuela y estudia presencia militar extranjera". Swissinfo. 24 November 2023. Archived from the original on 25 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
  3. ^ "Venezuelans to vote in referendum over large swathe of territory under dispute with Guyana". ABC News. 3 December 2023. Archived from the original on 3 December 2023. Retrieved 3 December 2023.
  4. ^ Prieto, Nestor (28 December 2020). "Disputa por el Esequibo (I): Raíces históricas del reclamo entre Venezuela y Guyana". Descifrando la Guerra (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 2 December 2023. Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  5. ^ a b c d e Humphreys, R. A. (1967), "Anglo-American Rivalries and the Venezuela Crisis of 1895", Presidential Address to the Royal Historical Society 10 December 1966, Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, 17: pp 131–164
  6. ^ "THE BEGINNING OF THE GUYANA-VENEZUELA BORDER DISPUTE". guyana.org. 2009. Archived from the original on 16 October 2018. Retrieved 1 May 2009.
  7. ^ King, Willard L. (2007) Melville Weston Fuller – Chief Justice of the United States 1888–1910, Macmillan. p249
  8. ^ Ince, Basil A. (1970). "The Venezuela-Guyana Boundary Dispute in the United Nations". Caribbean Studies. 9 (4): 5–26.
  9. ^ a b c King, Willard L. (2007) Melville Weston Fuller – Chief Justice of the United States 1888–1910, Macmillan. p249
  10. ^ Humphreys, R. A. (1967), "Anglo-American Rivalries and the Venezuela Crisis of 1895", Presidential Address to the Royal Historical Society 10 December 1966, Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, 17: pp 131–164
  11. ^ King (2007:260)
  12. ^ a b Schoenrich, Otto, "The Venezuela-British Guiana Boundary Dispute", July 1949, American Journal of International Law. Vol. 43, No. 3. p. 523. Washington, DC. (USA).
  13. ^ Isidro Morales Paúl, Análisis Crítico del Problema Fronterizo "Venezuela-Gran Bretaña", in La Reclamación Venezolana sobre la Guayana Esequiba, Biblioteca de la Academia de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Caracas, 2000, p. 200.
  14. ^ de Rituerto, Ricardo M. Venezuela reanuda su reclamación sobre el Esequibo Archived 19 November 2023 at the Wayback Machine, El País, Madrid, 1982.
  15. ^ a b c d e f g Griffith, Ivelaw Lloyd (28 April 2021). "New Dynamics in Northern South America's Geopolitical Neighborhood". Center for Strategic and International Studies. Archived from the original on 11 November 2023. Retrieved 3 December 2023.
  16. ^ Taylor, Moe (2019). "Every Citizen a Soldier: The Guyana People's Militia, 1976–1985". Journal of Global South Studies. 36 (2). University of Florida: 279–311. doi:10.1353/gss.2019.0044. S2CID 213967050. In 1969, it was discovered that Caracas had backed a secessionist revolt by ranchers and Amerindians in the Rupununi region, ... To put this into perspective, when Guyana gained independence in May 1966, it had a standing army of 750 troops and no air or maritime forces. Venezuela, in contrast, had an army of 15,000, an impressive air fleet of British- and American-made jets and bombers, and a navy equipped with destroyers, frigates, and a submarine.
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    • Mars, Perry (Summer 1984). "Destabilization and Socialist Orientation in the English-Speaking Caribbean". Latin American Perspectives. 11 (3): 95. doi:10.1177/0094582X8401100305. S2CID 145707836. Perhaps the earliest incident of major consequence since independence (1966) was the Rupununi uprising in 1969 in which Venezuelan complicity was evident.
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    • Black, Jeremy (2013). "Chapter 6: Wars Between Non-Western Powers, 1945-90". Introduction to global military history: 1775 to the present day (2. ed.). London: Routledge. ISBN 978-0415629201. in 1969, the army and police in Guyana stopped a Venezuelan-backed secessionist rising in the Rupununi region
    • Taylor, Moe (2019). "Every Citizen a Soldier: The Guyana People's Militia, 1976–1985". Journal of Global South Studies. 36 (2). University of Florida: 279–311. doi:10.1353/gss.2019.0044. S2CID 213967050. In 1969, it was discovered that Caracas had backed a secessionist revolt by ranchers and Amerindians in the Rupununi region, ... To put this into perspective, when Guyana gained independence in May 1966, it had a standing army of 750 troops and no air or maritime forces. Venezuela, in contrast, had an army of 15,000, an impressive air fleet of British- and American-made jets and bombers, and a navy equipped with destroyers, frigates, and a submarine.
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